Open 855: Not Mafia's Republic | Game Over

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

ok

if you're town I think the solve is NM is mafia and AnR is last wolf

I'll reread AnR iso tomm I think catboi wants to yeet the hydra

[staypositivefriend]

im going to have a very difficult time coming to an AnR wolf world but i will read their ISO tomorrow with an open mind

[staypositivefriend]

pooky can u take a look at arete's progression on n_m when u get a chance and give me ur thoughts? think they seem fairly compatible based on that alone

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Mafia team is 2 of STD/Peng/NM

also fwiw you seem to be parsing this as 2 maf/1 town and I think it's more likely 2 maf/1 wolf

mostly because them having 1 town means one of them is town but also because I don't want to believe that I'm misreading two people in my townpool

i think this spews the 2nd wolf being in townblock and not shady krew

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Arete/AnR both opened Day 3 voting in ShadyKrew aggressively and didnt try to sort in townbloc so mb that makes sense as the team since wolves r incentivized to hunt in the Mafia section of town

[staypositivefriend]

Mafia team is 2 of STD/Peng/NM

also fwiw you seem to be parsing this as 2 maf/1 town and I think it's more likely 2 maf/1 wolf

mostly because them having 1 town means one of them is town but also because I don't want to believe that I'm misreading two people in my townpool

i think this spews the 2nd wolf being in townblock and not shady krew

how so?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

because they r resistant to hunting within townblock and trying to get us to vote in shadyKrew

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like think of what happens if Arete convinces us to hunt within the ShadyKrew group of 3:

There's two possible worlds:

World (A): 2 Mafia + 1 Wolf

World (B): 2 Mafia + 1 Townie


Let's say we all decide ok we're going to wagon in ShadyKrew[3]

We run up someone, for example STD

STD claims Mafia because STD doesn't want to get eliminated.

We unvote. We ask STD who we should eliminate instead in ShadyKrew[3], STD points to the person

who is not STD's partner

If we're in world (a) that would necessarily be Arete's partner.

And Arete knows this is what will happen if we push in ShadyKrew[3], the inevitable result is that we end up voting for whoever the Wolf is, because even if you run up a Mafia, they will just claim and point to the wolf because its literally throwing at F8 to not claim. Maybe it wasn't clear with Ydra but I don't see mafia making the same mistake again.

So why would Arete push in Shady[3] if it inevitably leads to yeeting Arete's partner?

That seems nonsensical to me. and if Arete wants to yeet Arete's partner, why would Arete begin by pushing on STD when it would give Arete much more towncred for later to simply push

who their actual partner is in Shady[3] instead

?

[staypositivefriend]

well they were primarily interested in hunting for the maf, right? isn't it possible that they thought the maf were in the shadykrew even if their partner was in the shadykrew as well? u said urself that the wolves bussed yesterday, so it might have been worth the risk of potentially bussing if it meant being able to get rid of the opposing team

it's not like arete actually pushed on n_m within the shadykrew (who i think has the highest amount of wolf equity of anyone here rn), so i dont really buy that as a reason to think that the other wolf has to be in the townblock

i get what ur saying though

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

So this only makes sense for Arete to do if the second wolf is

also in the townbloc

and there

is no wolf partner in the Shady3

. Because this line of play necessarily ends up bussing the partner in the Shady3 if they get their way, which makes very little sense for them to do.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

well they were primarily interested in hunting for the maf, right? isn't it possible that they thought the maf were in the shadykrew even if their partner was in the shadykrew as well? u said urself that the wolves bussed yesterday, so it might have been worth the risk of potentially bussing if it meant being able to get rid of the opposing team

it's not like arete actually pushed on n_m within the shadykrew (who i think has the highest amount of wolf equity of anyone here rn), so i dont really buy that as a reason to think that the other wolf has to be in the townblock

i get what ur saying though

I mean even if NM is wolf and Peng/STD r 2 Mafia, Arete pushing on STD will still lead to NM getting yeeted because STD would probly just claim if he got to yeet range and point at NM rather than just die for no reason so it makes no sense for Arete to do this.

much easier for them to simply bus NM directly, get that towncred for later, and shoot the mafia at night or w/e.

[staypositivefriend]

in theory isnt getting one or more of the opposing team to out themselves worth the potential tradeoff of having to bus ur partner, particularly in a world where ur partner is n_m and is likely to die within the near future regardless of whether u push on him on that day or not?

[staypositivefriend]

in theory isnt getting one or more of the opposing team to out themselves worth the potential tradeoff of having to bus ur partner, particularly in a world where ur partner is n_m and is likely to die within the near future regardless of whether u push on him on that day or not?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

in theory isnt getting one or more of the opposing team to out themselves worth the potential tradeoff of having to bus ur partner, particularly in a world where ur partner is n_m and is likely to die within the near future regardless of whether u push on him on that day or not?

??

if NM is Wolf then the mafia team is already outted to Arete since Arete knows nobody was bussing ydra so STD/Peng would have to be the mafia team.

[staypositivefriend]

well they were primarily interested in hunting for the maf, right? isn't it possible that they thought the maf were in the shadykrew even if their partner was in the shadykrew as well? u said urself that the wolves bussed yesterday, so it might have been worth the risk of potentially bussing if it meant being able to get rid of the opposing team

it's not like arete actually pushed on n_m within the shadykrew (who i think has the highest amount of wolf equity of anyone here rn), so i dont really buy that as a reason to think that the other wolf has to be in the townblock

i get what ur saying though

I mean even if NM is wolf and Peng/STD r 2 Mafia, Arete pushing on STD will still lead to NM getting yeeted because STD would probly just claim if he got to yeet range and point at NM rather than just die for no reason so it makes no sense for Arete to do this.

much easier for them to simply bus NM directly, get that towncred for later, and shoot the mafia at night or w/e.

but i mean, why take the risk of potentially shooting a villager at night when u can just push within the names that u think are mafia and then get the mafia to out themselves for u? if the wolves primary goal was to fish out the mafia team like u were claiming, then just bussing their partner doesn't accomplish that goal, and it runs the potential risk of bussing their partner and then killing a villager at night, which would be pretty bad for the wolfteam in general

in theory i understand what youre saying but i just dont really think it clears the people in the shadykrew from being wolf like you imply that it does

granted i will admit that a big part of the reason i think this is because i find the a&r slot being a wolf a pretty difficult sell whereas i think n_m being a wolf makes a lot of intuitive self based on interactions/meta/etc

[staypositivefriend]

in theory isnt getting one or more of the opposing team to out themselves worth the potential tradeoff of having to bus ur partner, particularly in a world where ur partner is n_m and is likely to die within the near future regardless of whether u push on him on that day or not?

??

if NM is Wolf then the mafia team is already outted to Arete since Arete knows nobody was bussing ydra so STD/Peng would have to be the mafia team.

i feel like ur assuming what arete's perspective would be to a level that doesn't really feel logical though - i agree that arete probably thought that the mafia were in the shadykrew but it's also inherently safer to get them to out themselves for u instead of just assuming ur reads are right and trying to kill them at night

[staypositivefriend]

if i was a wolf in that position then i would find it worth the risk to bus to get the opposing team to mechanically out themselves to me, even if i thought the team was obvious without them mechanically outing themselves

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i feel like ur assuming what arete's perspective would be to a level that doesn't really feel logical though - i agree that arete probably thought that the mafia were in the shadykrew but it's also inherently safer to get them to out themselves for u instead of just assuming ur reads are right and trying to kill them at night

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 VT and Arete convinces us the actual distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 Werewolf

then it makes sense for Arete to push in shadykrew,

either they push a vanilla townie to death because VT's can't claim mafia

OR

they push a mafia and the mafia claims and fingers the VT in the group of 3 for us.

then the VT gets pushed and yeeted for being a "wolf"

Then we go to night and Arete shoots the mafia at night.

we wake up at 2 - 1 - 3 and we have 2 eliminations for 2 wolves which is very hard for us to win.


It is a very clear strategic line of play to push in Shady3 if Shady3 is 2 Mafia + 1 VT

It is much much worse to push in Shady3 if Shady3 is 2 Mafia + 1 WW because every line of play ends in the mafia claiming and pointing at the WW, so your WW partner gets eliminated.

In this scenario it is much better for Arete to "hunt" for the last wolf within the "Townbloc"

If Arete gets to yeet SPF, SabiHydra, or Catboi, they can shoot a Mafia in the Shady3 and end up with

2 - 1 - 3 and we are at 2 eliminations for 2 wolves again and now Mafia can't prove themselves.

[staypositivefriend]

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 VT, it is optimal for arete to push in the ShadyKrew

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 wolf, it is optimal for arete to push in the ShadyKrew

meaning that, the fact that arete pushed in the ShadyKrew does not inherently tell me anything about what the inherent distribution of the ShadyKrew must be, because i find it easy to believe that arete would push in that Krew regardless of the distribution, since, in either case, it is likely that they perceived the Krew to contain multiple members of their opposing team

and at the end of the day i just disagree with u because i think that the sabi/brad slot is town (pending a re-read) and think n_m is clearly partnered with arete so, shrug

[staypositivefriend]

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 VT, it is optimal for arete to push in the ShadyKrew

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 wolf, it is optimal for arete to push in the ShadyKrew

meaning that, the fact that arete pushed in the ShadyKrew does not inherently tell me anything about what the inherent distribution of the ShadyKrew must be, because i find it easy to believe that arete would push in that Krew regardless of the distribution, since, in either case, it is likely that they perceived the Krew to contain multiple members of their opposing team

and at the end of the day i just disagree with u because i think that the sabi/brad slot is town (pending a re-read) and think n_m is clearly partnered with arete so, shrug

and you can disagree that it is optimal for arete to push in the shadykrew if the distribution is 2 mafia - 1 wolf but i dont find it difficult to believe that arete would, so it's a moot point to me

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

why would arete push in shady3 if shady3 has their partner?

if they get us to target in shady3 then their partner has to die and we end up at 1-1-4 today which is not good for them

if they yeet a townie in townblock, today they are at 2-1-3 which is much better for wolves to win

[staypositivefriend]

VOTE: SaveTheDragons

hi

I think that you/NotMafia/Penguin is three nontown

I think that your interactions with Ydrasse are the partneriest of anyone

if you claim mafia, and tell me to vote someone on that list, I will unvote and sheep you unquestioningly. I think that mafia is in the best position of anyone in the game to be able to figure out who, of those people, is a werewolf, like that should be either 2 mafia/1 werewolf or 1 mafia/2 werewolves

you don't need to tell me anything else, I'm not going to be like 'haha but who's your partner though' or like 'btw please make reads on these random people definitely not looking for spew' or anything

I am, obviously, misreading someone in my town group. if you really want to try to sell me on one of them being specifically-a-werewolf I will hear you out but you are going to have to actually sell it.

i mean to me it looks like arete successfully figured out that STD had high partner equity with ydrasse and was going out of their way to try to get him to mechanically confirm himself, which is something i believe they would do even in a world where their partner happened to be contained within notmafia/penguin

you also keep acting like arete pushing within std/penguin/not_mafia would inevitably lead to their partner getting killed when this is not necessarily the case (ie: the mafia could refuse to out themselves out of stubbornness, the mafia COULD out themselves but choose to lead the chop on arete's non-partner in a world where arete is wrong about the pool containing 2 wolves and it only contains 1, etc etc)

in any scenario, the way that the mafia reacted to being pushed on would give the wolfteam an immediate advantage in being able to snuff out who their opposing team is and who they are the most likely to be partnered with, which is worth the potential risk of a partner dying

[staypositivefriend]

and even if it would technically be mechanically optimal to yeet a town within the townbloc, i can honestly see arete just wanting to figure out who their opposing team is and get them out of the game ASAP with no other mechanical considerations in mind

i care a lot more about who looks the worst off of spew and off of the way that arete directly treated/interacted with them than i do about arete's mechanical approach because it is impossible to know if arete would have approached yesterday in the most mechanically optimal way possible yesterday

[staypositivefriend]

on that note can u pls look at arete's progression and interactions with n_m and tell me if u think they look partnered?

[Not_Mafia]

Penguin is lock mafia as far as I'm concerned

Pooky has driven elims on both factions
I think catboi is town at this point

I still SPF and AbbyAndRani are both scummy and both their pushes on me feel very lazy. But Elim [SPF/AAR] ---> NK Peng ---> Elim [SPF/AAR] wins the game