Open 99: Mayo Clinic (Game Over!) before 703

[TonyMontana]

Did some random night 1 simulations at work during confirmation stage, thought I might as well share...

I'm not gonna bother explaining the scribbling (just wanted to show how incredibly bored i am at work)

The simulations were done under the assumption that a doc was lynched.
Out of 10 simulated night scenarios:
At least one doc was killed

100%

of the time.
At least two docs were killed

60%

of the time.
At least 3 docs were killed

20%

of the time.

A vig was killed

40%

of the time.

Scum was killed

0%

of the time.[/img]

[Nameless]

That's not exactly an encouraging response there, Wall-E.

You've done something scummy.

Nice scumhunting!

@ Tony: [sarcasm]That's ... nice? I guess it's a pretty accurate representation too. And very useful towards our scumhunting! [/sarcasm]

FOS: Wall-E, Tony

[TonyMontana]

Additional Stats:
5/10 nights with 3 kills
3/10 nights with 2 kills
2/10 nights with 1 kill

Hey, I thought since people was discussing night probabilities, and I already did some simulations, I might as well share. ¬¬ Does every tidbit of info have to be about scumhunting?

[Mana_Ku]

MK's last post consisted of , sardonic comments about everyone else's comments, and generally added nothing valuable to the discussion (possible exception: I agree with MK that we're not scumhunting right this second, and the two comments about my own comments were spot-on). MK: Do you have a suspect for scum aside from Gonk?

Sorry, I was in a really bad mood yesterday. And I wanted to give my thoughts about what was said. Not the best combination as you could have seen.
At this moment, the players who I call suspicious/scummy are actually catching my attention. And these are GnK, Kiro, gut feeling says that Charter has something to hide and then we have some players who could post a little bit more: OP and PP. I don't know what to think of TM yet as he's looking way too much into the night.
But like I said, these are the players (except for OP and PP as they only need to post more before I can tell what I think about them) who are catching my attention for now.

so tell all Doctors not to protect at all on Night 1.

Don't like this at all.

And a big thank you to Wall-E for understanding and being brave enough to stand up for a newbie.

A tribute to our mod, he just said the 'N'-word!
Now you all have to ':shock:' .

Perhaps I'm really sarcastic this game. My point is that even the newbies can be scum. It's unfair if they get special attention. You have to be judged like every other player for your actions.

I am not not using my doc protect

Couldn't agree more.

As of this post I consider non-scumhunting to be attack worthy

You have improved.

Wall-E: Newb bahavior =/= town =/= scum; I don't consider myself here to be just harrassing the newb. I'm somewhat suspicious of him as above but have decided to reserve judgement a bit. Having said that, most of the things I'm questioning are his stuff, simply because they do, basically, look potentially scummy.

QFT.

But like I said, he's to me not the only one who deserves my attention.

So, OP, PP, TM and Kiro who do you see as scummy?

[Kmd4390]

hypothetical

Obviously this also plays into WIFOM, but if Wall-e and I were scum, wouldn't he try to distance himself from me right now? Since I'm a likely lynch target, him being the first to defend me would look terrible once my role were revealed.

/hypothetical

Yes. If you are both scum. If you are scum together, Wall-E would probably be bussing you soon if your lynch starts to look inevitible. If you are town, and Wall-E is scum, I could see Wall-E staying off the wagon to look like one of the few who was right.

Does every tidbit of info have to be about scumhunting?

No, but more scumhunting and less setup discussion would be nice.

[Mirth]

"Attention all personnel, all personnel, please stop staging spontaneous dance routines on hospital grounds. Also, the next person who is seen dressed in 80's attire will be shot on sight."

VOTE COUNT

GnKoihi - 4 - [Mana_Ku, Stef, Kmd, charter]

charter - 2 - [Wall-E, GnKoichi]
Kiro - 2 - [orangepenguin, Nameless]

Nameless - 1- [TonyMontana]
Stef - 1 - [Puta Puta]
TonyMontana - 1 - [Kiro]

Not Voting - 1 - [Plum]

[Wall-E]

That's not exactly an encouraging response there, Wall-E.

You've done something scummy.

Nice scumhunting!

@ Tony: [sarcasm]That's ... nice? I guess it's a pretty accurate representation too. And very useful towards our scumhunting! [/sarcasm]

FOS: Wall-E, Tony

I can encourage good behavior without agreeing with the specific action.

[Kiro]

So, OP, PP, TM and Kiro who do you see as scummy?

Did a reread so these are some of my thoughts.

GnK's been continually pressured since his no-lynch vote. Regardless of him being newbie or not, I think he's running out of talking points and doesn't know how to defend himself at this stage. His last post is a mini-lecture about WIFOM that doesn't say much about himself. That there make him scummy enough in my eyes to see him lynched. Talk more about the suspicions about yourself or scumhunt. At this point, nothing else will save you.

I'm amused how charter thinks I'm scum without stating any specific reasons in post 113. Don't just label me scum and leave it hanging in the air. Make the effort to at least make your own stance known even if it mirrors Nameless'. Feels like a cheap shot.

Wall-E is saying, everyone, be like Nameless and scumhunt, and then doesn't provide any of his own cases to pursue. A bit hypocritical there. Arguing against setup discussion is fine, but once we're down to the scumhunting aspect, I don't see anything from you. If you have no one to go for, calling out one of the lurkers is good.

I actually don't have a problem with Nameless right now despite his vote on me. He's looking at everyone and picking apart bad arguments so he's definitely doing some scumhunting. Good so far.

TM, OP and PP have been noted by Mana_Ku. Don't have much of an opinion on everyone else.

[Wall-E]

Wall-E is saying, everyone, be like Nameless and scumhunt, and then doesn't provide any of his own cases to pursue. A bit hypocritical there. Arguing against setup discussion is fine, but once we're down to the scumhunting aspect, I don't see anything from you.

I admit to a bit of hypocrisy there. Still, calling for it is better than doing absolutely nothing, I'd think.

[Nameless]

I can encourage good behavior without agreeing with the specific action.

So you're not actually going to respond to my accusation then?

[Wall-E]

Your accusation is that I've been friendly with GnKoichi. I can't deny that.

If you want, I'll tell you that we aren't scumbuddies...

...but your point is valid and the only thing I can offer is, "Nuh uh."

Hence the lack of commentary.

Sorta wanting you to try harder, too.

[GnKoichi]

GnK's been continually pressured since his no-lynch vote. Regardless of him being newbie or not, I think he's running out of talking points and doesn't know how to defend himself at this stage. His last post is a mini-lecture about WIFOM that doesn't say much about himself. That there make him scummy enough in my eyes to see him lynched. Talk more about the suspicions about yourself or scumhunt. At this point, nothing else will save you.

I decided not to spend time trying to defend myself, because that's something everyone will try, town or scum. No one wants to get lynched. If you become a target, you can try to prove your innocence, but that in itself can look scummy if you're trying too hard. I found that the more vocal I was, the more ire I drew, so I've tried to learn from that mistake and take a step back. I'm trying to do a little more observation right now.

Through a reread, charter still looks scummy to me. I would say Kiro's idea of not protecting is scum worthy, but I'll give it the same benefit that wasn't given to me, that it was just a bad idea. Other than that, people are mostly hard to read. I'd say Nameless is town. Probably Mana Ku aswell. I'd like to say Wall-E is town, but it would be a really good mafia move to try and defend the first lynch candidate (me) knowing he'll be revealed to be town, thus making himself look unscummy. Especially if he knows his two mafia buds (charter & Kmd?) will go after me, and the SK is likely to jump on any high vote total.

[Kmd4390]

GnK, what connects me to charter?

[GnKoichi]

Just your willingness to join the attack against me and to defend charter, even when there was no defense for his position. There were legitimate reasons to be against my plan, which other people pointed out, and convinced me to change my mind. You, however, took things I said purposefully out of context to make me look worse.

[Kmd4390]

I posted what I thought were pretty direct contradictions. You showed that they weren't. I still don't like the way you blamed charter for what you did though. It's not that I think he is cleared as town or anything, I just don't think he is misleading us in the way you think he is. He seems pretty clear in his ideas so far.

[GnKoichi]

That's a fair point of view. I wasn't trying to blame charter (which I made clear). He WAS being misleading, maybe he was just mistaken, and that mistake ended up fueling my own mistake, but I never said THAT was his intention. I actually said several times that it was NOT his intention, although I have a feeling he is being misleading in some way.

Also fair to say you're not really on either of our sides now, but just as Wall-E would look guilty if I turned out to be scum, I think you would seem scummy should Charter prove to be scum. At least at first glance.

[Kmd4390]

I know you said you aren't blaming him for your no lynch vote. But you ARE blaming him for what you call intentionally misleading us which IS what led you to vote no lynch. In what way do you think charter is misleading us?

Ok, in a way, I did defend Charter or at least his actions. I see what you are getting at. Not sure what more to say except that we aren't scum buddies.

[Wall-E]

Let the healing begin.

Wait, scratch that.

Let the CARNAGE begin!

Vote: charter

pwned by the newbie lol

[GnKoichi]

The only way I felt Charter was being misleading was telling us not to worry about deaths at night. This is similar to Kiro asking us not to protect. He said it twice and was unable to come up with any reason for it, yet he hasn't changed his mind even after seeing the reasons against it. Holding on to irrational behavior seems odd to me.

[charter]

I haven't seen anything that shows what number of deaths are likely. I'm scum because you can't read.

[Nameless]

Vote: charter

pwned by the newbie lol

The newbie has only just said that at first glance Kmd and Charter appear connected, and the only arguments he's made against Charter earlier is that Charter's NK speculation is wrong (pointless, and opinion) and that Charter pushed a bandwagon all the way to 3 out of 7 required votes (... not exactly noteworthy).

Explain that vote and following statement.

[GnKoichi]

I haven't seen anything that shows what number of deaths are likely. I'm scum because you can't read.

I've posted these stats several time. I think someone else did as well (not Tony, I can't figure out what he's trying to say).

[charter]

I saw your 'stats'. They aren't right.

[GnKoichi]

Wow. That was a great counterpoint. I'm gonna have to go back to the drawing board on this one. Pack it up boys. We aren't right.

[Wall-E]

Explain that vote and following statement.

Sure.

The vote is because I think charter's scum.

The statement is to aggrivate charter and exacerbate the situation.

Thanks for ruining it...

BUT!

GnKoichi has yet again pwned charter in post 148. I'm liking this situation. I'm going to keep doing what I do.

Feel free to get pissed and vote me for it!