In post 423, scamper wrote:
this feels fairly random and now i'm wondering if you were looking for a way to ask about daychat to get townread.....
Well if it was no one townread me for that. But since you asked and i hadnt gotten to it yet, what does knowing when the daychat opened prove?
I'm going to do a lot of speculation in this post and say "i assume" a lot, so take what i say with a grain of salt. I dont know the setup, i can only speculate on it, and maybe make you guys think.
I very much doubted that scum!ausuka would make a miller claim without talking it through with her partner, which would have been not impossible but very hard if the daychat opened right after day started. However, if daychat opened
before
the game started, then they could have prepared a coherent plan beforehand. Normally if we knew the setup, this would end up being a nice thought experiment but nothing to write home about. All we know about the setup however is that it is a normal game.
In that case, i want to figure out if a miller claim is a net positive for the scum to claim. Miller by itself is already a safe claim, but you dont just claim a role for the shits of it as scum, that is unless you had some idea about the roles of the game. The way you can figure out the rolelist as scum is simple: 2 vanilla goons mean a single power role for town, and a weak one like escort. One powerrole and one goon means either a very strong pr for town like vigilante, or two powerroles. Two mafia powerroles mean two strong pr. This isnt %100, dicerolls can make it so that one side is more advantaged, but most of the time you can make an educated guess as scum on how the powerroles are distributed. Now, in what situation would claiming a miller make sense here?
Two mafia goons, and they know the powerrole of the town is most likely a weak powerrole, or a cop. In this case, claiming miller gives you some more leeway if the cop investigates you, because you can say you claimed miller beforehand. No downsides to this, so it is a net positive play.
If there are one powerrrole and one goon, then the pool of powerroles dont expand that much, only tracker would be a problem. However, if the goon claims mafia here and the powerrole does both their role and the killing, then not only would the miller claim waste trackers resources on themselves, but also, again, be a net positive claim in case of cops. Same case with two mafia powerroles, however in this case they do have to be carefull about tracker, it is still a net positive claim to make but not as outrageously easy as the other situations.
So we've established that claiming miller is always a positive play for scum in this setup. Now for the important part, how do we tell a genuine miller claim from a fakeclaim?
Sadly, this is about as far as we can go for certain without knowing the setup. I am even assuming a 2-7 town to scum distribution, that might not even be true, it might be 3-6. When we talk about figuring out setups a lot is going to be speculation, all i can do is assume something and hope its right, and even if it ends up not being right it might lead us to figuring out the setup for real.
However, i did find one post from ausuka strange, which is this one:
In post 356, Ausuka wrote:Like literally just ignore the miller claim unless you're a Rolecop that is all I am asking
Now, if you rolled miller, would your main concern be a cop, or a rolecop? Rolecop already gives miller result, so the only confusion would arise if a cop tried to investigate you.
Thats not all, however. Rolecop is predominantly a mafia role, though rarely it is aligned with town as well. So why would she concerned about a role that is not only rare, but also most of the time not even aligned with town?
I'm not saying this is anything concrete, it really isnt. But knowing that in every possible mafia combination a miller claim is a net positive, adding on top of that ausukas weird concern about rolecop above makes me at consider the miller claim always suspicious. And considering that mafia have a net positive play claiming that, being naturally suspicious of this claim is the only way to offset that imbalance.
