Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame

[Hiraki]

Full disclosure - I'm really not good at setups but would it make sense to fullclaim now? Doctor would obviously remain hidden since we know there has to be a doctor but everyone else might help for utility purposes? The only way this hurts is that it confirms to scum if there is an SK (although there does not seem to be one).

The reason I'm thinking this is assuming that Klick is not lying, our letters are currently MVDD XXX (X meaning unknown rather than porn tyvm)

It can't be TTT on the current circumstances unless doctor was successful night 1 and mafia decided to no kill tonight. Both of these seem pretty unlikely to me but again - not great at this stuff. In all cases, the current setup should be that the cop is currently useless because all last 3 X's have godfathers in them assuming we are not in MVDDTTT.

If we're in MVDDXTT, massclaim doesn't really harm anyone because it's pretty much known already since we got rid of the roleblocker & the nilla. Only godfather remains which means that the X is useless.

If we're in MVDDXXX, massclaim now helps town because it assembles more clears. Again - a lot of this relies on not having an SK in the setup which I think we should think about first. I would also like people to poke holes into the above because again - not great at this stuff.

DDDD in any case seems pretty unlikely to me since there's been so many kills but if we are in that setup and we do fullclaim all doctors, it's an auto-town win. So I'm really failing to see the downfall of massclaiming here.

[Hiraki]

Thinking more about it - the above essentially becomes ruined if Klick is an SK but that would rely on mafia NKing N1 which is again pretty unlikely to me.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'll leave the set up spec to others. I have no idea when it comes to this sort of stuff

[Klick]

I was also thinking massclaim (with Doc claiming VT) was good. But everyone hates when I suggest massclaim lol. Or at least they did 2-3 years ago

I thought SK was possible yesterday but that was because I was assuming a Doc could protect from two kills at once. SK is very unlikely to exist.

[Klick]

Also furtive feels like another nonsense kill to me?

How impossible is something like there being Mafia/SK/loads of Doctors? Because furtive kill is baffling

[Aisa]

[...]
It can't be TTT on the current circumstances unless doctor was successful night 1 and mafia decided to no kill tonight. Both of these seem pretty unlikely to me but again - not great at this stuff. In all cases, the current setup should be that the cop is currently useless because all last 3 X's have godfathers in them assuming we are not in MVDDTTT.
[...]

As you say - this argument relies on Klick not being SK
So:
EITHER Klick is 1-shot vig, shot Dunn tonight, and the night kill pattern seems to indicate no SK,
OR Klick is SK and something happened to either the SK or mafia kill night 1. Which is perhaps unlikely but not impossible.

Further, the probability of there being a 1-shot vig at the moment is ~38%. The probability of there existing an SK is ~50% ish, maybe a bit lower but I’m not going to do the full math. So it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Klick is not SK.

Spoiler: Derivation of 38%

Setup is mechanically conformed to be DDM XXXX and there is exactly one M.
So there is a 1/9 chance of a particular X being a V.
So the chance of there being at least one V is 1-(8/9)^4=38%.

[Klick]

Yeah but if I was SK why not just not claim and avoid this problem altogether

'To make this argument' isn't a line of reasoning that gets Klick!SK through a whole game at this point

I think our efforts are better spent finding the last Mafia and then we can seriously evaluate my claim if the game is still going by that point. Because there's a 100% chance of there being a Mafia left

[Aisa]

Assume for the sake of argument there is no SK. What if the setup is DDD so there are two doctors? That would kind of mess with our ability to confirm people.

I’m not necessarily saying we shouldn’t massclaim, just trying to have a discussion about it rn
...although my gut feeling is anti massclaim tbf

[Aisa]

Ahh hang on I have now fully understood Klick’s post
I need to think about the implications

[Hiraki]

Yeah, that's why I really ruled out Klick SK. If the purpose of Klick SK to claim vig is to cause a 'counterclaim', then that would be awfully strange.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

I thought SK was possible yesterday but that was because I was assuming a Doc could protect from two kills at once. SK is very unlikely to exist.

Were you theorizing that mafia + SK hit the same, doctored person, and a vig shot Mala?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

I'm happy to go with the flow wrt massclaim. Is the idea to determine if these kills are coming from an SK?

[Hiraki]

No - it's to reduce the POE.

[Klick]

I thought SK was possible yesterday but that was because I was assuming a Doc could protect from two kills at once. SK is very unlikely to exist.

Were you theorizing that mafia + SK hit the same, doctored person, and a vig shot Mala?

Yes - specifically likely Hiraki
I suppose SK could have killed Mala still? And then a kill would have went missing last night too.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Hiraki should come up with a claim order list at some point

[Hiraki]

I really don't have a preference but I'd like an agreement first. Maybe anyone who objects by tomorrow?

[Gamma Emerald]

[...]
It can't be TTT on the current circumstances unless doctor was successful night 1 and mafia decided to no kill tonight. Both of these seem pretty unlikely to me but again - not great at this stuff. In all cases, the current setup should be that the cop is currently useless because all last 3 X's have godfathers in them assuming we are not in MVDDTTT.
[...]

As you say - this argument relies on Klick not being SK
So:
EITHER Klick is 1-shot vig, shot Dunn tonight, and the night kill pattern seems to indicate no SK,
OR Klick is SK and something happened to either the SK or mafia kill night 1. Which is perhaps unlikely but not impossible.

Further, the probability of there being a 1-shot vig at the moment is ~38%. The probability of there existing an SK is ~50% ish, maybe a bit lower but I’m not going to do the full math. So it’s far from a foregone conclusion that Klick is not SK.

Spoiler: Derivation of 38%

Setup is mechanically conformed to be DDM XXXX and there is exactly one M.
So there is a 1/9 chance of a particular X being a V.
So the chance of there being at least one V is 1-(8/9)^4=38%.

why exactly 1 M?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also we either have DD or DDDD wrt doctor roles because froggo flipped one shot doc

[Klick]

So votes I'm interested in right now:

Dunnstral
BBT
Malakittens
Enchant

I'd prefer a high-info vote over a lurker vote.

VOTE: BBT

What if I just trust my past self

VOTE: BBT

[Klick]

I kind of this and like maaaaaaybe Aisa is where the last Mafia is.

[Aisa]

Gamma:
I am an idiot and it is not exactly one M - should really have double checked the setup huh?
Good point about DD or DDDD. And DDDD is really rather unlikely.

[Infinity 324]

MDDVXTT

MDDXTTT

there could be 3 Ms or 4 Ds but that's less likely. (@gamma there can't be 2 M's cause that means there's no ic)

it doesn't make sense for sk!klick to claim here i don't think. unless we live in a strange world with an sk and a vig, klick becomes confirmed scum once the last mafia dies. klick could also be mafia who knows there's an sk in the game and decides the claim, but they end up with the same problem; once the sk dies klick is confirmed lying.

massclaim i think helps clear some stuff up but i'm tired and need to think about it more

[Gamma Emerald]

MMM could exist I believe (pretty sure that’s 2 masons + IC)

[Hiraki]

The only thing that makes me really question this is that SK!Klick might just be doing this as a gambit since the old fashioned way would probably produce the same result (esp with 2 scum slots left) but that would mean that there's quite a wacky night phase of actions for N1 and N2. It's a bet on my part but I've bet more on worse odds.

[Infinity 324]

yeah i guess 1 T or 0 Ts just seems super unlikely to me but maybe that's gambler's fallacy since we know it's 3 Ts max

those setups seem between very difficult to lose and deterministic wins regardless. in the masons setups, scum (and sk) have to counterclaim the 1 VT or a PR and we just have enough mislims, especially since klick can't kill if they're sk since they become confirmed scum.