Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Unsure]

Please don't let Malcolm get away

[Crescent]

I've been thinking vig in general could make quite the bastard role in a setup like this with at least one scum doctor and at least 1 scum RB., But there are so many problems with this claim.

Let's theorycraft a bit and say scum has two doctors and two roleblockers (This has actually been a working theory of mine I've had since Meg's flip, but I never saw a point to bringing it up). What can that claim

actually

tell us? Scum could RB it, or even try to protect it's target as getting said player voted off is far more beneficial to scum than simply seeing them get shot at night. The claim is basically useless once it's actually been claimed.

Which brings up my next point: Why not just... Claim a normal vigilante? If I had the role Malcolm is claiming, I shoot the scummiest person on Fred night 2, and if they flip town, I claim normal vig if I get pressured. (As scum vigs are banned in normals). If they don't die, I claim a scanner and take them out that way, almost certainly baiting a shot in the process for a solid 1/1 tradeoff.. The only reason for town to

ever

claim the loyal part is if they shoot someone who doesn't die.

Third... How can you be so completely passive at acting on scum reads if you actually have this role? How do you not use this role night 2 after that trainwreck of a day? How do you sit there and eventually do absolutely nothing?

But the most damning thing really is: That claim is actually of an extremely powerful role for sorting the game out that's being treated like a joke. Two townflips of highly suspected players right now would be a virtual godsend, because it means we've lost the equivalent of one day phase, but shed two people we probably would've voted off anyway.

This is either a very convenient scum claim, or a [i[horrendously[/i] misplayed town role on every conceivable level. This feels like someone spewing a role without stopping to actually think about how powerful the role they're claiming actually is.

[Crescent]

I've been thinking vig in general could make quite the bastard role in a setup like this with at least one scum doctor and at least 1 scum RB., But there are so many problems with this claim.

Let's theorycraft a bit and say scum has two doctors and two roleblockers (This has actually been a working theory of mine I've had since Meg's flip, but I never saw a point to bringing it up). What can that claim

actually

tell us? Scum could RB it, or even try to protect it's target as getting said player voted off is far more beneficial to scum than simply seeing them get shot at night. The claim is basically useless once it's actually been claimed.

Which brings up my next point: Why not just... Claim a normal vigilante? If I had the role Malcolm is claiming, I shoot the scummiest person on Fred night 2, and if they flip town, I claim normal vig if I get pressured. (As scum vigs are banned in normals). If they don't die, I claim a scanner and take them out that way, almost certainly baiting a shot in the process for a solid 1/1 tradeoff.. The only reason for town to

ever

claim the loyal part is if they shoot someone who doesn't die.

Third... How can you be so completely passive at acting on scum reads if you actually have this role? How do you not use this role night 2 after that trainwreck of a day? How do you sit there and eventually do absolutely nothing?

But the most damning thing really is: That claim is actually of an extremely powerful role for sorting the game out that's being treated like a joke. Two townflips of highly suspected players right now would be a virtual godsend, because it means we've lost the equivalent of one day phase, but shed two people we probably would've voted off anyway.

This is either a very convenient scum claim, or a [i[horrendously[/i] misplayed town role on every conceivable level. This feels like someone spewing a role without stopping to actually think about how powerful the role they're claiming actually is.

[Crescent]

Please don't let Malcolm get away

If I had any intention of letting Malcolm get away with completely ignoring the trains, I don't draw the attention I did to him in the first place~

The claim is hot garbage though. In situations where I don't know the player, I'll bank on it being surprised scum not stopping to actually think on their claim rather than town horribly misplaying their role. I have no reason to believe MT is that bad of a player, but he certainly has contributed very little overall to this game...And of course he didn't even answer why he dodged the Enchant train at all, which is the only reason this rush happened anyway.

I will add though that an MT scumflip does put Lowell somewhat back on my radar, as Lowell is one of the only people in the game MT has actually taken a strong defensive stance towards. He hasn't said really anything at all about the guy since calling him town at the start of day 2.

It would also... Actually make it conceivably

possible

that Enchant/Prince is town/town (Yikes my scum list) and MT simply wanted nothing to do with either wagon. I find scum freeze most often when they get surprise TvT trains because they hesitate to join either. When I was a newer player, it was one of my biggest issues as scum - Being able to definitively choose a side on a sudden TvT late in a day.

[Greeting]

We basically have two options here:

a)

MalcolmTucker

is telling the truth: he didn't know what to do with his role, which, being a Town Loyal Vigilante on the surface may look useless, but is in fact very powerful.

b)

MalcolmTucker

is lying: this is a convenient claim of a power role, which has a convenient explanation as to why there is no evidence of it being used overall in the game.

The arguments to support a) are:
- the role looks believable in this setup, it is a self-designed Datisi set-up and he likes unconventional roles;
- this approach does fit

MalcolmTucker

as a player overall.

The arguments to support b) are:
- the role has not been used at all, there has not been an attempt made to even look into how to make use of the role, which is infuriating from a town perspective;
- the claim is convenient, because it has an explanation on why there is no evidence of role usage to give.

Having taken a step back, I think I am choosing option a) after all. If the claim is real,

MalcolmTucker

is going to be killed off at Night, and if not, and there is no evidence of him killing or getting a guilty on someone, I will be the first one to vote him out later.

So I think I am staying on

Enchant

.

[Greeting]

The mafia are probably rolling on the floor laughing now. If I were, I certainly would be though.

[Crescent]

Problem with A is his role is useless once claimed. Town has no reason to ever disclose that part of his role under these circumstances. He can claim he shot someone who didn't die, and we can't trust it. Even if we flipped him town after this point, we

still

can't trust it. We can't prove scum didn't RB him or save his target.

The only meaningful result that claim could provide comes from shooting town, which is something that claim should've already been doing

Say no one "extra" dies tomorrow and he claims he shot at X player. What do we do with this?

[Crescent]

Oh and that's why I simply find it impossible to trust. Town has no reason whatsoever not to claim a normal vigilante here. I believe we have a significant chance of simply being in WIFOM hell tomorrow regardless of his alignment. It's either scum or it's a horrendous misplay.

[Crescent]

Actually I'd specifically claim a vig with a special feature, but refuse to expose what that feature was, only to reveal it if someone I shot didn't die.

Also, he still didn't even bother to vote Enchant or anything, yet he made 3 separate posts for his claim. This suggests he's more focused on making his claim stick than he is in actually hunting scum.

[Crescent]

Actually yeah this claim has to die for reasons that completely transcend his overall play.

If he claims he shot someone who didn't die, they can flip town, and it doesn't confirm him scum. We vote off town and learn nothing. If he's flipped town, it doesn't confirm the other player scum. We vote off town and learn nothing.

He has claimed something that has

negative value

for town once exposed. What it does have is high potential value for scum, as it can be used to push MLs, and/or bury town in WIFOM.

Even if I believed the claim (which I don't), I don't think I'd ever actually want him to take a shot.

[Unsure]

This isn't a discussion. MT needs to go.

[Unsure]

I will fucking lose it if MT gets to live for another day.

[Firebringer]

we want to lim one of the easiest testable roles in the game?

[Crescent]

Did you miss the part where he can claim to have shot someone who didn't die?

[Firebringer]

and that gives us a ton of info

[Crescent]

No, it doesn't. It tells us virtually nothing. It puts us into WIFOM hell where we get absolutely nothing out of the next flip except for the flip itself.

[Firebringer]

It gives us a 1v1 situation.
The only way it wouldn't be 1v1 in that scenario would be if mafia doctor somehow figured out MT target.

[Crescent]

It gives us a 1v1 situation.
The only way it wouldn't be 1v1 in that scenario would be if mafia doctor somehow figured out MT target.

And there's your problem, and why it means nothing. I also think scum may have a second RB (along with two doctors - it's been my theory since Meg's flip), which would completely invalidate MT if he's town no matter who he shoots.

We can

never

trust any result MT gives us. Even if he flips town, we cannot trust that he actually shot scum. I basically disregarded Bugspray's scan on Lowell, and I would disregard this too.

I find his claim so dangerous that even if I thought he was town, I would never want him to fire a shot.

[Firebringer]

God if there is a second role blocker. I am protesting post game

[Crescent]

When I saw Meg specifically flip 1-shot RB, I theorycrafted scum having two 1-shot RBs and two doctors. I have no actual evidence with which to base this on, but I have thought about how bastard a role like vig could be with that setup.

The problem also remains that there's just no good reason to have ever claimed the "loyal" part if it's true. It removes the scum-confirming power if you're town, but what it does as scum.. Is give you an excuse to not actually kill anyone. When you combine it with all the other "wrong" things going into this claim, the level of overall misplay it would take for this to be a town claim is honestly horrifying.

[Unsure]

I understand that mechanically, we keep him alive and let scum kill him we can see what happens overnight yadda yadda but i really dont want to do that when it's glaringly obvious that Malcolm is scum here.

[Unsure]

If town, MT literally decided not to use their powers 2 nights in a row because no one seems scummy but it's literally an investigative role and a free day in a large. MT could have literally just sheeped any of the townread he has. MT could have even shot Fred and Enchant who he has been willing to vote. What's the difference with the role he has and a literal day phase elimination?

[Unsure]

And it totally sounds like something you fakeclaim because there's a gunsmith in the game and you can't claim "odd-night" "even-night" anymore.

[Crescent]

I understand that mechanically, we keep him alive and let scum kill him we can see what happens overnight yadda yadda but i really dont want to do that when it's glaringly obvious that Malcolm is scum here.

Oh and that's the other problem. That assumption. This same assumption was flying around about Scorpious following his claim day 1 in 2272, that scum would certainly shoot him that night 1, and my argument is I would never shoot him in that position as scum. Scum didn't shoot him night 1. They didn't shoot him night 2 either.... And he was town!

If he's town, there's a

absolute 0% chance

I aim a shot at him overnight if I'm scum. I'd insult my teammates if they even tried to shoot him. I don't think any scumteam would actually consider shooting him here, so he's almost certainly going to be alive tomorrow if he lives today. If he's scum, he'll claim a no-kill on someone. Even if he's town, I give it decent odds he'll claim a no kill on someone.

I feel like all roads lead to WIFOM hell and it's terrifying because that's can just implode towns.

[Crescent]

I'm going to bed, but I'm not putting him E-1. It's still only a small fraction of the playerbase who has reacted to this claim, or to his reaction to the votes on him.

But also on one last note: Re-reading his last posts: He called himself a town counterwagon to scum Enchant, but.. Didn't really say anything else. This creates multiple problems on it's own.

If this were the case, that would also make Prince a potential town counterwagon to scum Enchant. He's vaguely shaded Enchant a lot today... Except for when Enchant actually had votes. Why did MT do absolutely nothing towards Enchant while Prince was going up to -1, while he was defending Prince? Where was the vote? He never even tried to explain this, and it feels like a massive contradiction in his actions.

To summarize: He made absolutely no attempt to explain his lack of action, which is why he got the votes in the first place - To pressure him to explain his lack of action. He completely ignored the actual cause of the train against him. Andante, Vivax, and I are the first three people who pushed this pressure on him to explain. Greeting was ambivalent and decided the answers were worth hearing. Enchant, Unsure, and Owen were the second wave that pushed him -2. He claims scum is pushing his counterwagon, but

who

are the scum pushing this counterwagon? Outside of Enchant, we have no indication at all. His response to his train was both evasive of the reason he was voted to begin with, and lazy in the way it deflected without providing any content.

And this is all completely independent of the claim that looks fake.