Micro 1059: Micro & Normal Stuff | GAME OVER

[Coral]

Hello everyone!! I'm really excited to play with you all

I have an idea, hear me out. The thing is, scamper's avatar is too cute. It's too powerful. If he's scum, we're literally never going to catch him because people will be about to vote and then they'll look at that cute little cat and go "aww" and then not have the heart to go through with it. So what I propose is that we eliminate him now before he has a chance to post again. I've run the numbers on expected win percentages and there's no time to explain it in detail, but trust me, it's the mechanically optimal play.

VOTE: scamper

Quickly, it's our only chance!

[Coral]

On Ausuka, I personally lean slightly town on the claim. I think it would draw too much unwanted attention for her to be willing to fake it.

[Coral]

On Ausuka, I personally lean slightly town on the claim. I think it would draw too much unwanted attention for her to be willing to fake it.

uh

i have never seen a town lim a miller claim. usually its just believed automatically.

I have more thoughts on this that I will share at a later time.

[Coral]

Hello everyone!! I'm really excited to play with you all

I have an idea, hear me out. The thing is, scamper's avatar is too cute. It's too powerful. If he's scum, we're literally never going to catch him because people will be about to vote and then they'll look at that cute little cat and go "aww" and then not have the heart to go through with it. So what I propose is that we eliminate him now before he has a chance to post again. I've run the numbers on expected win percentages and there's no time to explain it in detail, but trust me, it's the mechanically optimal play.

VOTE: scamper

Quickly, it's our only chance!

scamper is too cute to vote tho >___>

Oh no, it's already too late...

[Coral]

I'm severely disappointed nobody took me up on it. The window of opportunity has closed now, so you'd better be town.

[Coral]

On Ausuka, I personally lean slightly town on the claim. I think it would draw too much unwanted attention for her to be willing to fake it.

Why? She loses nothing from claiming it (unless shes rolecopped ig). As far as claims go, its definitely safer than claiming VT anyway, the suspicion will blow over in a day max

Maybe I just trust the vibe that she seems genuinely feeling rather "bruh" about the situation. It's a very well-faked tone if it is fake, since it leaks into her other posts as well. As scum she would probably be laughing internally at going for a silly gambit like that, and I don't feel any undertones of suppressed laughter.

I recognize that this is reading a lot into it, but I personally think it's fair to do so in this situation

[Coral]

Phoenix's persistence is slightly towny, I think. As scum he would probably recognize that he isn't really getting townread for his approach and may change tactics. I do agree that he sounds a little stiff, but that may just be a personality or writing style trait.

[Coral]

VOTE: Aristeia

[Coral]

Phoenix's persistence is slightly towny, I think. As scum he would probably recognize that he isn't really getting townread for his approach and may change tactics. I do agree that he sounds a little stiff, but that may just be a personality or writing style trait.

Do you think such a change would happen when we're only 100 posts in? The game is quite short right now so quickly changing your styles seems...unneeded. I think Phoenix is

fine

(now do they deserve the amount of TR's they have that's another topic) but I disagree with this being a reason to TR them

He's gotten more scumreads than townreads, no? I only see scamper having mentioned a townread. He got scum leanings from Meg, Ausuka, and Datisi, and was questioned by Don in a way that seemed to indicate suspicion.

And yes, I think that it feels like if he is scum then he is making the choice to double down on his approach. It's possible he's decided that he talked his way into where he is and he can talk his way out of it, but to me the barreling forward without regard for how he is perceived seems like it comes from someone who isn't self-conscious. It's easy and often tempting to step back and simply not post as much as scum. It's not a full playstyle change that I'm expecting.

[Coral]

I would probably be switching my vote to Don here but I think they're at E-2 already and it seems a little twisted to put them at E-1 for suggesting that we put someone else at E-1. It does feel like they're kind of all over the place and I struggle to see a consistent town mindset. That makes me think they could be intentionally trying to look like the town they describe as "playing however they want". The issue is that I don't understand the motivations behind anything they're doing, so it just feels random for the sake of chaos.

I also changed my mind and decided Ari is town!

UNVOTE:

[Coral]

Phoenix's persistence is slightly towny, I think. As scum he would probably recognize that he isn't really getting townread for his approach and may change tactics. I do agree that he sounds a little stiff, but that may just be a personality or writing style trait.

persistence in doing what, exactly?

He's moving things forward but only along one path. If he were trying to look towny by having a lot of content, I'd expect him to be tackling different subjects and angles. His continued arguing what is basically the same point with Ausuka isn't really doing anything to make him look better on a surface level. To me it comes across as a tunneled townie.

[Coral]

I also changed my mind and decided Ari is town!

what changed your mind from your vote up until now?

It was a very gut-based reasoning initially, and a gut-based reasoning changed my mind as well. I was looking at the playerlist and found myself thinking a lot of the people posting felt town to me, and she felt slightly off, so I voted there to see what happened.

Then, when reviewing her ISO, I was reminded of 29, and something about it to me just feels like a very town response for her to give. I know it's basically an RVS nothing-post, but it is what changed my mind, so that's what you get!

[Coral]

Do you think that he hasn't been persistent in his questioning of Ausuka?

[Coral]

I'd wagon Xayah. The misreps I go back and forth on, it seems like something that will easily get called out. But 101 and 107 felt weird to me. There's a very strange level of hedge in the way she expresses her read in those posts and it feels awkward.

VOTE: Xayah

[Coral]

Do you think that he hasn't been persistent in his questioning of Ausuka?

he has 13 posts and we are less than 24 hours into day 1, i don't see how you can call anything "persistent" at this point. asking questions seems like a playstyle thing for him, and again i don't see how having expressed, at best, mild suspicion, equates to being "tunneled"

My word choice probably wasn't the best then, so fair enough. I stand by the sentiment, though. Continually questioning Ausuka feels like he has tunnel-vision, even if it's not the traditional use of the word "tunneled".

[Coral]

scamper must be immune because the cuteness of his avatar overrules mine

[Coral]

I didn't think it was cruel, I thought the logic behind the concept of it was funny in a dark irony sort of way. I don't agree with your tactic and therefore I don't think it should be applied to you either despite my suspicion. My point was that the pressure on you was already sufficient without my vote.

I don't see where you get that I was trying to appear open-minded. I recognize that my phrasing in that post was a little awkward, since I had kind of a bunch of thoughts that I didn't really take the time to string together in a cohesive way, but I think that all of the thoughts I expressed land squarely on the side of "suspicious of Dom".

What about that post do you view as buddying?

[Coral]

That's because it kind of was! I felt a town vibe first and then tried to figure out where it was coming from after. I'm not terribly convinced it was a great reason, but it was fun to explore!

As town my mind is often a jumble of mixed-up thoughts and feelings. As scum I take care to express my thoughts clearly, which is easy to do because they're fake, and have clean and planned-out progressions. I wouldn't ever have reason to express a thought that I wasn't already confident I could state in a cohesive way and back up later, unless maybe put on the spot by pressure and I need to come up with a read on a partner. I think that's one of my weaknesses.

[Coral]

Sufficient to influence your actions, which is the main goal of pressure: to see how people respond to it. E-1 is more pressure than I have interest in placing on anyone at this point in the game.

[Coral]

i think it's fair to call it a sort of filler post. i just had noticed the votes on you and thought it was interesting since I had felt some desire to vote as well, but not enough to be the fourth vote. so I felt some amount of obligation to provide my thoughts on the situation, since i did have thoughts, despite not really coming to a solid conclusion or course of action with them. and i sure am glad i did, because look at how much meaningful discussion it prompted!

i like your response to the pressure for the most part, so i would prefer to stick with my xayah vote, but thanks for the offer!!

Spoiler:

now that was a buddying post

[Coral]

This feels like, entirely based on self projection based meta on "I would expect X to do Y but because they're doing Z they're town." If you're always in this kind of mindset it doesn't help you catch mafia it helps people know how to play around you and I can't tell if this kind of thinking is good or not.

We're 8 pages into the game. With competent players (and I think everyone here is at least a step or two above competent), figuring out how to catch people as scum at this point in the game is kind of a crapshoot. My early reads may not stick around forever, but we have to start somewhere. I would be excited to hear if you have a better method of catching scum than looking at the actions people take and trying to predict if they are more likely to be taken as scum or as town!

I find that my methods are the most fun for me, and they work well enough for me to believe in them

What's wrong with hedge?

It's not that there's anything inherently wrong, but the manner in which you did it feels awkward. In one sentence you express 3 different opinions on Phoenix:

"I think Phoenix is fine (now do they deserve the amount of TR's they have that's another topic) but I disagree with this being a reason to TR them"

. It feels like you are defending Phoenix, while also scrutinizing reasons for TRing them, while also misreading the gamestate as overly townreading them, while also vaguely criticizing all of those TRs (which don't exist) without going into why.

In the second post:

Hm, alright I'm willing to go along with this read for now. I didn't really catch on how much Pho was becoming a common wolfread. But they're not really in my "I would vote today" tier anyway."

, you accept my townread, accept that they are being scumread more than you realized, and then for some reason feel the need to emphasize that you don't actually want to vote them?

It feels over-explained, I guess. Like you feel some need to make sure you have the right thoughts put out there on this slot even if they don't quite fit into the context of what's being discussed. My instinctive reaction is actually that it feels partnered, but I'm not really sure if I buy into that, so for now I'll just stick with thinking that it feels off.

[Coral]

That's because it kind of was! I felt a town vibe first and then tried to figure out where it was coming from after. I'm not terribly convinced it was a great reason, but it was fun to explore!

As town my mind is often a jumble of mixed-up thoughts and feelings. As scum I take care to express my thoughts clearly, which is easy to do because they're fake, and have clean and planned-out progressions. I wouldn't ever have reason to express a thought that I wasn't already confident I could state in a cohesive way and back up later, unless maybe put on the spot by pressure and I need to come up with a read on a partner. I think that's one of my weaknesses.

ok....i'm not really sure this changes my view, though

Okay. What about 123? What do you think is my mindset or motivation behind making that post as scum? Can you explain more where the feeling of "off" is coming from, and why that's more likely to come from scum?

[Coral]

hmm

If you had asked me closer to the start of the game for a scamper wagon, I would have been on board. Now... maybe the cute avatar has worked its magic on me already too, but I'm not as interested anymore. The things that you think are scumtells here I think are, if anything, closer to towntells.

[Coral]

galron kinda feels better than he did in that meme exploder game

VOTE: coral

coral!! what are your current thoughts on the gamestate, apart from the xayah read?

datisi!!

My current thought is that most people feel pretty towny, actually. I'm surprised that scamper says he has a lot of scumreads (and im really not sure what to think of him yet but i think i want to leave him alone for now). I think that even Xayah and Don's more recent posts feel at least a little townier. All that really means is that the game is probably not trivially easy. Looking over everyone else, though, I still am leaning towards Xayah and/or Don being scum. Probably my second tier would be Ari/scamper... and maybe Galron? maybe you? I don't know, the middle section of my reads has been moving around a lot. I'm most confident in Ausuka town. I agree with whoever mentioned a vibe townread on Meg, but that's a bit weak due to the low amount of posts.

Why are you in particular looking for people who are making easy pushes? Is that something you always do, or is it specific to this game? The way you called it out made it sound like it's something you came into this game with the idea of doing.

[Coral]

I no longer want to vote Meg at the moment they are moved out of Day 1 vote range.

What changed?

[Coral]

when someone is correctly scumreading me, the thing i love to do is just continuously ask them what feels off and what do they not like about it and etc etc, and when they give a response continue arguing why they're Wrong, Actually

I didn't continue arguing why he was Wrong, Actually, though, so how does it fit? It was intentional though, I wanted to see how he would respond to that tone. I liked the response, because he didn't feel a need to overjustify himself and directly respond to every question I asked in order to win the argument. The way that he simply restated his point with a little more clarity felt like a response from town who is still trying to sort things out

[Coral]

I think that Ari's frustrated insistence on these points is quite towny. I disagree that Ausuka is scummy. I think that there is something to the idea that Datisi feels informed in his reaction to Ausuka's claim, but I don't think that makes him scum. I think it could come more from him being friends with Ausuka and having a feeling about how she might react to drawing that role. In other words, there is information that is making his reaction different than it would be if he was purely reacting to the words on the page, but that information could be coming from multiple other places than a red PM.

[Coral]

Also, I don't see how that would make them partnered. If anything, it makes more sense for it to be scum Datisi pocketing town Ausuka. Which is definitely a possibility here

[Coral]

As for Meg, I don't think their point is as bad as it's being portrayed as. Maybe I'm being generous in my interpretation because I lean town on them, but I think a general point of "Ari as scum would want to try to drive things in a direction that she wants and set up a long term plan for the game" is both a reasonable thought to have and also, in broad strokes, probably a decently accurate one. I do think they're wrong, though, because I think that the way that Ari is going about it is more towny than that.

[Coral]

coral is kind of in a weird spot to me, the vote on me and then the jump off felt strange and tactical in a way but I think maybe she's just having fun because she's town this time. I don't really know how to slot her atp.

I actually have much more fun as scum usually

I often find especially early parts of games as town to be rather boring and I'm quite bad at them. But I do try to do my best to have fun anyway

[Coral]

Reading through Don's post, it actually gave me a little bit of clarity on Ari's thought process. I guess I could see a world where Datisi and Ausuka roll scum together and in the pregame chat talk about "haha, wouldn't it be funny if you claimed miller here?". That's much more believable than Ausuka deciding on her own to claim it.

I still don't agree with it being likely what happened, but I can see more where both of them are coming from. So slight town points to both, I guess.

[Coral]

I think that the theory and mechanical speculation is NAI because they would have no difficulty faking that as it has nothing to do with this game, but I do think that setting it up like you are very confident in a Datisi/Ausuka team and that you are going to prove it and then just backing off Datisi for no real reason would be a surprising choice for them to make as scum

[Coral]

I'm sorry, that is not possible. The active players are too competent to be circlejerking the entire day

I should also mention that this is both wrong and a very dangerous assumption to be making. Good players are unpolarized, and are not easy to find as town just as they are not easy to find as scum.

[Coral]

You came to that conclusion based on the assumption that she is "concerned" about a rolecop. There's nothing to support that assumption.

[Coral]

If you're drawing conclusions from unsupported assumptions, then those conclusions are unlikely to be meaningful. It benefits town if people in this game are rational and draw rational conclusions. The only way it wouldn't achieve anything is if you are convinced that your mind won't change.

Actually, I don't know why you wouldn't want to change my mind here, if you're so confident that you have the correct view of things? Isn't that something to achieve?

[Coral]

If he's scum he's pocketing you, so that makes sense

[Coral]

I think that's fair!

scamper I would like to hear more about how xayah ended up in your strongest town pile, if you don't mind.

[Coral]

yes i gathered that already, I was hoping for more, because that isn't really very convincing to me. is there anything specific you can point to in her posts that you think feels that way, or is it more of a general vibe?

[Coral]

Hi! Checking in to say that I won't be around much at all tomorrow. I don't think I have any new opinions right now. I guess the only thing would be that I'm more and more thinking that it could just be Galron, as nearly everyone else seems to be achieving some level of towntelling.

[Coral]

My guess would be that it's one of Galron or Xayah but not both, alongside... Don or Datisi? I haven't thought about that too much but it feels reasonable

[Coral]

Hi! I had a positively wonderful day, and I feel very happy

I mostly skimmed and will post some real thoughts tomorrow, but for now:

Drunktisi was very entertaining, and I probably shouldn't townread it but I think I will anyway.

I'll miss you Ari <3 Hope everything is alright! Welcome, Gamma, nice to see you again!

I'm willing to

hesitantly

trust scamper as town for now. The way he handled both the Ari situation and his own back and forth with Meg felt town to me. And I also agree with his reads except for the one on Xayah, I think, but I'm not too sure on that one anyway and maybe I'll just sheep.

Galron's latest pop in... is not a great look.

More tomorrow, I should be much more available, good night!

[Coral]

Hi!

very okay with a hammer on galron, still catching up and will see if there's anything I think needs to be responded to before then

[Coral]

so...i can probably say a little more about all the stuff regarding the miller claim in a bit

We can wait for this too, I think there could be multiple things to talk about

[Coral]

now the game is over I can talk about why I think dats is town here

I can elaborate more I guess but basically it's that I really thought he might be pocketing me even though I liked his posts in that game

Because he townread my miller claim kinda point blank and he agreed with my pushes and was townreading me from the start. I think other people said he might be pocketing me a few times as well

But he was town in that game, so like idk I think we might just be similar players on a vibes level and that's why he can read me and we often have similar views? Does that make sense?

I don't know how much I agree with that reasoning. I think he responded to the Miller claim in the way that would be expected of him as town, which could just mean he's town, but there's a sort of... unspoken sharing of secret knowledge there that kind of creates a bond, you know? It isn't something that inherently has an malignant motivation behind it (I kind of responded in a similar way), but it is an excellent way to create a pocket in the early game, even if it's unintentional or a benign one.

That specifically was what made me worry about Datisi. I could easily see him as scum using that little interaction to get on your side early and then continue to share similar views with you in a way that would remind you of your previous game. I don't think I'm

that

worried about it anymore, at least for now, but I would personally caution against townreading him for that here.

[Coral]

I think that's most likely.

[Coral]

It's not that there's anything inherently wrong, but the manner in which you did it feels awkward. In one sentence you express 3 different opinions on Phoenix: "I think Phoenix is fine (now do they deserve the amount of TR's they have that's another topic) but I disagree with this being a reason to TR them". It feels like you are defending Phoenix, while also scrutinizing reasons for TRing them, while also misreading the gamestate as overly townreading them, while also vaguely criticizing all of those TRs (which don't exist) without going into why.

In the second post: Hm, alright I'm willing to go along with this read for now. I didn't really catch on how much Pho was becoming a common wolfread. But they're not really in my "I would vote today" tier anyway.", you accept my townread, accept that they are being scumread more than you realized, and then for some reason feel the need to emphasize that you don't actually want to vote them?

It feels over-explained, I guess. Like you feel some need to make sure you have the right thoughts put out there on this slot even if they don't quite fit into the context of what's being discussed. My instinctive reaction is actually that it feels partnered, but I'm not really sure if I buy into that, so for now I'll just stick with thinking that it feels off.

Remembering this post has me excited about the idea of Galron/Xayah

[Coral]

yeah idk i wouldn't have much confidence in any of my reads anyway so like, it's whatever

[Coral]

or never if i/she die tonight

I can't die tonight because I'm getting pushed tomorrow as a Galron partner

Assuming he's scum, at least. I don't really see how he claims and then abandons thread as town, though.

[Coral]

I am sometimes bad at partner interaction, though

I thought it was Xayah overnight but I'm surprised by the nightkill so I'm pondering things at the moment.

[Coral]

Oh, Xayah had Don as one of her top two town in 602. Maybe she thought that with the late push on Galron on top of that, they were obvtown. I was still hesitant there so it's possible she misjudged how people were reading the slot (or maybe everyone else knew they were town and I just didn't see it )

[Coral]

and i think xayah is Town, Actually. i don't think scum!her, upon seeing galron be about to go down, starts putting me and ausuka oin her most bottom tier, because, uh. i really don't think that we're viable executions here.

I don't think this is a good reason to townread her. At the time she made that readlist (602), the VC was here (with her vote moved to Datisi):

Spoiler:

Official Vote Count 1.06

this ladybug has been hanging out on a leaf for a few minutes, and probably believes in God but has doubts

Elimination

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to push someone through the dimensional barrier.

scamper

(2): Donempire, MegAzumarill

Galron

(2): Aristeia, Ausuka

Aristeia

(1): Xayah

Datisi

(1): scamper

Donempire

(1): Galron

Coral

(1): Datisi

Xayah

(1): Coral

Not Voting

(0):

Deadline:

(expired on 2022-08-05 07:46:36).

Mod notes:

Play nice.

I don't think it was clear yet that Galron was going down.

[Coral]

@coral, i feel like there was much more talk about people wanting to go galron, i know i was thinking i want to vote him, but not actually voting him at the time? i might have to review the actual timeline, but i don't think the vc is a good metric

You're right, I did mention on the previous page that I was starting to lean towards Galron. I still don't think it was at all a foregone conclusion, though, if he had showed up at all and started posting he could have survived. You were also a possible elim while scamper was pushing you, which he was doing at the time, Don was pushing Ausuka, and Ari was still on her Datisi/Ausuka theory.

[Coral]

I actually quite like that point.

[Coral]

One other possibility to keep in mind though is that scum could have thought that Don's reaction to Galron's claim hinted at him being a PR

[Coral]

With Gamma and I preferring to vote there as well, that makes 4, so she should probably start talking sooner rather than later

[Coral]

yes it is

[Coral]

Spoiler: again

I'd wagon Xayah. The misreps I go back and forth on, it seems like something that will easily get called out. But 101 and 107 felt weird to me. There's a very strange level of hedge in the way she expresses her read in those posts and it feels awkward.

VOTE: Xayah

What's wrong with hedge?

It's not that there's anything inherently wrong, but the manner in which you did it feels awkward. In one sentence you express 3 different opinions on Phoenix:

"I think Phoenix is fine (now do they deserve the amount of TR's they have that's another topic) but I disagree with this being a reason to TR them"

. It feels like you are defending Phoenix, while also scrutinizing reasons for TRing them, while also misreading the gamestate as overly townreading them, while also vaguely criticizing all of those TRs (which don't exist) without going into why.

In the second post:

Hm, alright I'm willing to go along with this read for now. I didn't really catch on how much Pho was becoming a common wolfread. But they're not really in my "I would vote today" tier anyway."

, you accept my townread, accept that they are being scumread more than you realized, and then for some reason feel the need to emphasize that you don't actually want to vote them?

It feels over-explained, I guess. Like you feel some need to make sure you have the right thoughts put out there on this slot even if they don't quite fit into the context of what's being discussed. My instinctive reaction is actually that it feels partnered, but I'm not really sure if I buy into that, so for now I'll just stick with thinking that it feels off.

[Coral]

If I were good then I wouldn't have gotten you off track with my post about Don

I was hoping we could wagon Xayah together after 130, but alas

[Coral]

i feel like it's meg because their play kind of just *fits* with what i'd assume buddy-with-galron would be doing. his slot started getting negative attention pretty early on in the game. your partner going down d1 is bad, in a micro normal it's Bad because you could just get fucked over with tprs. but i don't think there was anything to actually townread galron *on*, so what do you do? you hope for distractions. you stir up shit and hope people go to other slots. and i'm reminded now that meg did that both with ari in ausuka/ari, and with scamper.

this usually wouldn't be an issue by itself, but the fact that the arguments they've made about those two were not very good and were consistently getting called out as not very good and just kinda feel inflammatory is hm.

like, i guESS it's possible the partner was just not here and/or not doing anything to stop the wagon but i feel like it's somewhat unlikely both scum just decided to flop because. idk because the universe doesn't like me that much.

I think this is a decent argument for Meg and I should probably be considering them more than I am. I'll do some re-reading, I suppose. I guess I just have felt like I can see the town thought process behind their posts consistently, so I haven't really ever had a reason to look further than that. I do agree that the positioning is where a scum could choose to sit.

[Coral]

Of course, I'd like to imagine I wouldn't get caught so easily given how easy it is to wolf on this site and how to come across as a villager to people but ya never know.

I hope you are in fact scum because it would make this line very funny!

[Coral]

If I had a townread with the amount of confidence Coral was showing I wouldn't drop someone to villager to "shades half the game being ok with going over" just because of a replace in but that's just me.

Can you point out where I showed this level of confidence?

[Coral]

I'm also not at all sure what the quote in there means, could you clarify?

[Coral]

Phoenix's persistence is slightly towny, I think.

This was where I originally stated the read. Extreme confidence, here!

In 104 I respond to your questioning of it and clarify my reasoning. I don't think any of my language here portrays confidence. I examine both sides and state that I lean towards one of those sides.

In 125, similarly, I respond to scamper's questioning of it, and I explain again. Here my language is a bit less hedgey, I suppose, but it's still on the same original point.

In 144, I talk to scamper about how I wasn't that confident in the read but it was fun exploring it together

I don't think that in any of those I express much confidence in the read. Your approach to the questioning is also much scummier than scamper's, by the way, because he was examining my reasoning to try to sort me individually. You were focused on Phoenix and making sure that you clarified that you weren't willing to vote the slot, without explaining way, but that other people's reasoning behind their townreads were

bad

. You weren't really trying to sort me in the moment, you ended by saying "hm, I can go along with this for now". You were pretty clearly saving me for later.

[Coral]

Part of me is made more confident in thinking it's Xayah by the fact that she dropped her Datisi/Ausuka read to pivot into pushing the two slots that are most likely to be viable eliminations, and despite more of a focus on myself, she votes Meg, who has fewer defenders and one vote currently.

Meg, meanwhile, clings to their suspicion of the Ari slot which is never going to be successful. I'm not really sure why they townread me so strongly, but I don't think it makes strategic sense for them to do so as scum here.

[Coral]

I mean I thought Dati/Aus had to have one but I mistook it with familiarly over TMI (woo how fun ty for explaining that to me could've avoided this mess)

I think that this is quite silly especially given that the familiarity

was

explained. The only thing that wasn't explained originally was the context of Ausuka being a Miller in a game that was ongoing at the start of this one.

Using "oh, well of course they're just friends, if only someone had

told

me that, then I would have never suspected them" is extremely weak here and at best indicates that little to no thought was put into the original read, because even if you were only reading this thread, it would take very little effort to figure out that they were friends.

[Coral]

I believe I explicitly stated we were friends, fwiw?

Yes, and even without that it was pretty clear. I think hiding behind the "I don't know anyone here that well or how well you know each other" is a way to craft a believable reason for feeling some unexplained impure energy that can be dropped whenever convenient.

[Coral]

I'm excited to hear all about them!!

[Coral]

scamper feels good

As long as the Elims are me Meg Coral game ends so shrug.jpg

(Well I need to read Dat more but give me a bit on that)

If I was to order the murkey pool in order of likelihood to be a wolf it'd prob go scamper>Coral>Galron

You should also probably explain why you're willing to bet the game on a "scamper feels good" given that your most recent read there had them above only Datisi/Ausuka.

[Coral]

No, I wasn't trying to sort you I was trying to find your logic on another player.

lol what

[Coral]

scamper feels good

As long as the Elims are me Meg Coral game ends so shrug.jpg

(Well I need to read Dat more but give me a bit on that)

If I was to order the murkey pool in order of likelihood to be a wolf it'd prob go scamper>Coral>Galron

You should also probably explain why you're willing to bet the game on a "scamper feels good" given that your most recent read there had them above only Datisi/Ausuka.

Other way around.

the alligator eats the bigger cookie

[Coral]

I mean I thought Dati/Aus had to have one but I mistook it with familiarly over TMI (woo how fun ty for explaining that to me could've avoided this mess)

I think that this is quite silly especially given that the familiarity

was

explained. The only thing that wasn't explained originally was the context of Ausuka being a Miller in a game that was ongoing at the start of this one.

Using "oh, well of course they're just friends, if only someone had

told

me that, then I would have never suspected them" is extremely weak here and at best indicates that little to no thought was put into the original read, because even if you were only reading this thread, it would take very little effort to figure out that they were friends.

You're saying this like it was the base for my read for the entire game (it wasn't) it was for the

start

of the TMI read and evolved into something else after reading context clues.

No, this doesn't track. If you initially felt it was TMI and that later evolved into a more nuanced take that included the knowledge of them being friends (nuance which you never showed at the time and are only now claiming it existed all along), and that read still persisted all the way to 846, then

why are you only now saying that you mistook familiarity for TMI

and that you now realizing this caused you to drop your read of there being one wolf in the pair?

[Coral]

scamper feels good

As long as the Elims are me Meg Coral game ends so shrug.jpg

(Well I need to read Dat more but give me a bit on that)

If I was to order the murkey pool in order of likelihood to be a wolf it'd prob go scamper>Coral>Galron

You should also probably explain why you're willing to bet the game on a "scamper feels good" given that your most recent read there had them above only Datisi/Ausuka.

Other way around.

the alligator eats the bigger cookie

I make alligator shoes. But yeah, other way around.

How is it the other way around? You said in order of likelihood to be a wolf. And then you put scamper first in that order. With a symbol indicating that scamper was greater in likelihood than me and Galron. That means you think they're most likely to be a wolf.

[Coral]

That's awfully convenient.

[Coral]

I mean I thought Dati/Aus had to have one but I mistook it with familiarly over TMI (woo how fun ty for explaining that to me could've avoided this mess)

I think that this is quite silly especially given that the familiarity

was

explained. The only thing that wasn't explained originally was the context of Ausuka being a Miller in a game that was ongoing at the start of this one.

Using "oh, well of course they're just friends, if only someone had

told

me that, then I would have never suspected them" is extremely weak here and at best indicates that little to no thought was put into the original read, because even if you were only reading this thread, it would take very little effort to figure out that they were friends.

You're saying this like it was the base for my read for the entire game (it wasn't) it was for the

start

of the TMI read and evolved into something else after reading context clues.

No, this doesn't track. If you initially felt it was TMI and that later evolved into a more nuanced take that included the knowledge of them being friends (nuance which you never showed at the time and are only now claiming it existed all along), and that read still persisted all the way to 846, then

why are you only now saying that you mistook familiarity for TMI

and that you now realizing this caused you to drop your read of there being one wolf in the pair?

Once again third time for the people in the back:

The read on one wolf being in them never changed just the reasoning for it did.

That addresses literally nothing in my post. That point was part of my post, even.

[Coral]

Obviously, that logic does not work if Dat is a wolf (I'd still bet game on GE and scamp villa and you will respect that when you exe me)

If you cared about convincing people to respect that then you would give... like, any reasoning whatsoever for why you're so confident on scamper being town.

[Coral]

Obviously, that logic does not work if Dat is a wolf (I'd still bet game on GE and scamp villa and you will respect that when you exe me)

If you cared about convincing people to respect that then you would give... like, any reasoning whatsoever for why you're so confident on scamper being town.

You'll respect it when you see my green role pm when I flip. If I have to towncase scamper villa later I will

Or you could also tell me why you think scamp could be a wolf that'd be nice since you want to give reasoning so badly.

If by some miracle you flip town, I have no reason to give any weight to your scamper read. I have my own reasons for my scamper read and care much more about those. If you provide reasoning that convinces me I should care about your read, that could change, and it could also at least slightly chip away at the massive pile of things that you seem to be clearly making up on the fly.

[Coral]

Well at least I know I don't need to answer you anymore ty for making that clear ta ta

I gave you two good reasons, and I think you should care about those reasons if you're town.

[Coral]

From my perspective, it looks like you're openly just having fun messing around as caught scum, because I don't think anything you're saying here makes sense from a town mindset.

I've given many different things that I have issues with and would like to hear your response on in order to sort you, and you have either dodged, ignored, or misrepresented them. None of them have you answered in a substantial way.

If any neutral observer disagrees with that and thinks that I'm being the unreasonable one in this back and forth, I'm happy to reassess.

[Coral]

I also would like to take into account your reasoning on scamper. That's why I asked for your reasoning. You refused to provide it.

[Coral]

i don't really understand posts like 1068, 1074, 1084, 1085, 1091, 1103 then

they seem like they're intended to just be frustrating

[Coral]

like, I'm sorry but i just don't believe that the genuine town response to "why did you have this player in this spot in your read list?" is "obviously I wrote the readlist backwards, so actually my reads were correct all along"

[Coral]

and like. idk i think if you compare xayah and meg i think meg is playing like last scum standing more than xayah is. because i feel like xayah is taking the approach of "let's solve this game so that once i'm dead, this town can still get the W" and meg is taking the approach "push xayah through, feel out the thread for further pushes".

I think this is understandable, to an extent. But I think those are just different possible approaches for scum to take. Scum can focus on... not looking like the last scum standing, and like they're town trying to solve. My issue with Xayah is that it feels like she is spending far more time

talking

about how much she is taking that approach and how she is going to solve the game, and much less time actually doing so. I think it's also just odd to me how much emphasis she is placing on how sure it is that she's the elim today (and therefore she's town because she's still trying) when I don't think that's at all guaranteed.

I'm less confident on it being Xayah than I was yesterday though, for what it's worth.

[Coral]

anything specifically from meg that struck you as a townie thought process or whatever you called it?

It feels to me like their reads are coming organically rather than strategically. People disagreed with it but I liked the thought process in 970. And I think that them sticking with their Gamma read here is towny because it gains them nothing as scum and it opens up another line of attack that they will have to defend against. It also seems like throughout the game they have had no interest in getting anybody on their side, which generally tends to get you eliminated.

To be honest, I didn't closely read most of the back and forths they had with Ari and scamper as some of it made me pretty uncomfortable, but I'll revisit those if I feel like I need to.

[Coral]

I would like to try to reinforce my reads on scamper and Datisi by rereading, in order to feel more confident that I won't have to reconsider there, but I don't really have the energy for it and likely won't until next day phase

[Coral]

I can understand the reasoning for wanting a massclaim. It could help us decide how to best move forward with full information. I think there's some possible downsides, so it's hard for me to advocate for it fully, but I'm at least open to it, and it may be the right choice.

[Coral]

That's a lot of words to say not much

But short answer is that I support Ausuka if she wants one, unless someone has a really convincing reason why we shouldn't

[Coral]

Spoiler: Xayah progression

scamper feels good and GE is just a villager if I'm missing a blindspot it's on Datisi but I don't ever see a world where I'm alive with Datisi long enough to make that choice so I'm not gonna worry about that right now.

I don't see much reason to defend myself given Gamma is using meta that is over a year old and Ausuka is just biased. Of course, I'd like to imagine I wouldn't get caught so easily given how easy it is to wolf on this site and how to come across as a villager to people but ya never know. As long as the Elims are me Meg Coral game ends so shrug.jpg

(Well I need to read Dat more but give me a bit on that)

Alright, now that we're done with that I'ma go iso Datisi just so I'm fine with the 3 person elim train.

Datisi do you bus often?

depends if i think it's worth it or not. you'll find examples of me both hard defending and bussing partners if you look.

why?

I'm trying to track your consistency on the Ph0 Galron read and it looks good if you don't bus often but if you're an omegabusser I have to look at other areas because you look the best off the flip.

Obviously, that logic does not work if Dat is a wolf (I'd still bet game on GE and scamp villa and you will respect that when you exe me)

Obviously, that logic does not work if Dat is a wolf (I'd still bet game on GE and scamp villa and you will respect that when you exe me)

If you cared about convincing people to respect that then you would give... like, any reasoning whatsoever for why you're so confident on scamper being town.

You'll respect it when you see my green role pm when I flip. If I have to towncase scamper villa later I will

Datisi do you bus often?

depends if i think it's worth it or not. you'll find examples of me both hard defending and bussing partners if you look.

why?

I'm trying to track your consistency on the Ph0 Galron read and it looks good if you don't bus often but if you're an omegabusser I have to look at other areas because you look the best off the flip.

i really don't *like* doing busses but i have done a few very successful ones. not sure what i'd have done this game as scum, fwiw.

Assuming I'm a villager do you think I'm on the wrong track and

should

be glancing at scamp?

i've already given a few reasons why i think scamper is most likely town, so no?

So you agree with my worldview perfect okay I can die knowing someone here will do my work for me (B

I also would like to take into account your reasoning on scamper. That's why I asked for your reasoning. You refused to provide it.

This I can say did happen yeah I haven't given my scamper TR reasoning but right now I don't see that as important to conversation if you really want me to just go into detail on that read I can but rn it doesn't seem like it should be the focus given I want the vote to always be in our 3 slots (3 being me you meg)

I don't have much out to really talk about that comes to mind unless there's serious doubts on scamper or GE I need to address

I would relook scamp at f3 but I'm srs when I say GE is lock town never taking that back

I still don't really understand why Xayah holds most of the opinions she does or why they have progressed in the way that they have.

She starts with "scamper feels good", and that she only needs to assess Datisi to be confident in locking in the POE. She doubles down on saying she'd bet the game on scamper town. She then pokes around Datisi a little bit. Now her latest is that she seems to not be considering Datisi as possible scum at all, and that we should instead reassess on scamper in f3. I don't see anything that explains that change.

In the event that Xayah is town, I would like her to give her reasoning behind her reads on scamper and Datisi, because right now they seem pretty unsupported, and I'm not even really sure where she landed on Datisi. I don't really understand why, if her goal is to ensure all of the elims are me/her/Meg, she has taken no efforts to provide any convincing reasoning for why Datisi and scamper are town for people to listen to after her death.

Xayah -- Are you now more confident on Datisi town than scamper town? Why? Please share what convinced you so that it can perhaps also convince the rest of us.

What was your original reason for being willing to bet the game on scamper town? Do you still agree with that reasoning, or has your mind changed? Please share your thoughts here.

If you're scum you don't need to answer since I'll probably hammer you anyway, but I want to hear what you have to say if you're town!

[Coral]

VOTE: Xayah

[Coral]

so on pondering i *think* megs role is townie, because otherwise the complex cop would only be able to get results on ausuka and maybe the other mafia member which seems not great for a 9p

Can you explain your thought process here a little bit more? I don't quite follow you.

[Coral]

this is maybe a little bit of a me-read but saying "most people feel pretty towny" is more common from scum because from an informed perspective u tend to see the towniness in everyone where townies get oaranoid and latch onto small things and lash out. this is kinda like my last game where people were paranoid of alexcellent but to me he was just so tpownie he was basically impossible to case

notably at that point galron hadnt really dont anything, coral slots him in her poe but its behinf 4 other names, and i know all of those are town. i dont really think at that point he merited being put there

its also a really dissonant statement to make - she thinks most people are towny but she has a tier of suspects that is 6 deep? like, i acknowledge that in general when the game seems hard on day 1 it leads to paranoid thoughts but if so many people seem towny shouldnt she have fewer suspects? it would just be "everyone is towny except xyz"

Most of your other points are at least

fine

-- I don't have much to say about them, although I can respond if you'd like me to (I'd expect you don't care much, which is alright) -- but this one I'd like to talk about a little bit.

Mostly the final paragraph. Everyone in the game is a suspect, on some level. If most people are being towny then that leads me to suspect that scum are being towny. Perhaps my phrasing was unclear. Me saying that most people are being towny means that most people are doing surface level towny things. It doesn't mean that I hard townread everyone. It means that on an individual level, when I look at each slot, they feel town. And in that gamestate, when I step back and look at the game as a whole, that means I'm really not sure where scum could be. That makes my reads weaker and means there's less separation between them. That was what I was trying to express by listing my reads in that manner. I don't think there's a dissonance.

I do have a tendency to believe that scum are being very clever, and focus on the places where I feel like that could be happening. Especially because in that situation, Galron is probably going to die regardless. Those sort of slots rarely interest me, even though they probably should more than they do.

[Coral]

scamper, I too would like to know what you think about a massclaim.

I'd also like to hear what your thoughts are currently on Datisi, if you don't mind.

[Coral]

Why do you think it's scum-motivated, rather than town trying to probe scum to see what they're planning before moving forward?

[Coral]

Are you referring to me or Datisi? I think we're both doing it.

[Coral]

I just wanted to clarify. So you don't townread me anymore?

[Coral]

By "for datisi", do you mean when he asked you in 1142 to explain your read?

[Coral]

Why did you reinforce your reasons to townread in your 1151 response, then?

[Coral]

Can you go into that a little more? I think if we can be confident on Datisi being town then this game becomes much easier.

[Coral]

I know you already talked about it a bit in 1097. I guess it wouldn't hurt anything for me to be a little more clear. Day 1, I asked you similarly about Xayah, and you said you didn't want to go into it yet, but would if it was necessary. Then the next day you ended up willing to vote for her, and did so.

If you're scum, you're in a similar situation here, where Datisi isn't getting eliminated today but you may need to have him available as an option tomorrow. It would benefit you in that situation to be a little cagey on your reasoning so that you don't have as much that you need to walk back later, just like it did in the case of Xayah.

I'm asking for your reasoning now because if you're scum, I want you to commit to it and have your thoughts out there. And if you're town, then your insights would be useful and so I want to hear your reasoning in that case as well.

[Coral]

And I'm not worried about spelling that out for you since if you're scum you're already aware of it. But if you're town, it may give you some incentive to share more of your thoughts.

[Coral]

its something im very self-conscious about

This is why I had you as town after the flip, so I guess it's good to see you mention it here. You backed off Galron in a pretty bad-optics way that I thought you would be too self-conscious to do as scum.

Now the question is if you would be too self-conscious to mention how you would be too self-conscious to do that as scum, in a game where you did in fact do that

[Coral]

The way you moved onto Datisi and Meg while not exactly pushing them as scum felt like actions that look bad but don't actually really accomplish anything in terms of securing an elim on anybody besides Galron.

[Coral]

tag yourself in the flavours

I think im the dragonfly, although I thought I maybe should be the egg

this dragonfly is slightly iridescent, and is better at writing than mathematics

[Coral]

We've been a bit leisurely. Hopefully the massclaim can get finished as soon as possible and we can move on from there.

[Coral]

I did consider the baby as well, it's a good one.

[Coral]

Ok, cool. I'm the Neighborizer, probably not a surprise. The fun part though is that I'm also Informed! My Information is that Ausuka is town. I crumbed this at the start of the game in my hood, and also in post 30 (which intentionally could be misinterpreted as talking about something else ), and pretty quickly decided that I was going to add her night 1 so I claimed the Information the hood at that point as well.

I added Ausuka night 1 and Datisi night 2. For the night 2 choice we couldn't confidently decide on someone being town besides Gamma, who seemed like the likely night kill, but we decided it probably didn't matter that much who we added since the hood would get revealed today anyway.

[Coral]

I've been going back and forth between sharing something now or after massclaim and am leaning toward the latter.

Right now I'm waiting for something to happen.

What exactly were you referring to here then? What were you waiting to happen?

[Coral]

I claimed it in PT shortly after gamestart.

[Coral]

Sharing my general thoughts of this gamestate. This is effectively a situation where scamper/ausuka choose one of me/you/datisi to live and the others to be elimmed.

Why were you thinking that the choice would be between me/you/datisi at the time of that post?

[Coral]

i think its actually highly super unlikely that all of don/dats/corals roles can exist in the same game and be town

if you take for granted that they all are, you could potentially have 3 players mechanically cleared on day 2 of a micro

that seems like it would be incredibly unbalanced

What's weird to me though is that Datisi knew about my role before he claimed. Why would he claim that as scum here? It seems like all it would accomplish is putting him in the mechanical POE.

[Coral]

Why would it be beneficial for scum datisi to clear me?

[Coral]

I know this is fairly useless self-meta, but as both alignments I have a strong distaste for winning due to mechanics (I don't find it very satisfying), and I don't think it would even cross my mind to go for that kind of gambit before the game even started. I considered, as town, not even using the PT day 1 because it felt almost unfairly clearing for me to have claimed in it that early.

I would also as scum have to either be informed or predict that there existed someone who it would make sense for me to be informed about. Being informed of a Miller is odd because there's no use for that. I could have been informed of the full setup, but I don't think that's necessary considering if I were scum, then town would be missing the power that comes with my role.

Again, to be clear, I said in the PT prior to gamestart (paraphrasing) that I know something about somebody, but I don't know if that's the person I'll neighborize yet or not (I suspected that there was likely something special about Ausuka that would make it make setup sense for me to be informed there, and my first guess was that it was possible she was Ascetic), and then immediately after the Miller claim I figured she would have definitely claimed if ascetic as well, so I claimed in the PT at that point.

[Coral]

and u have to ask yourself why scum needs a *backup neigborizer* in a micro, thats such a profoundly useless role

it does provide a safe claim against th neap i guess (while the goon is immune to the complex cop) but that still seems really incredibly weak in contrast to everything else in the setup

I don't think they think I'm mafia backup neighborizer, perhaps informed backup neighborizer, mafia informed, mafia rolecop, etc.

Correct, yes.

[Coral]

Why would it be beneficial for scum datisi to clear me?

Because it lets them ml me and end up in a scamper/Coral/Datisi endgame.

I think the appeal for scum!dats is obvious

It's possible, but that seems like a very risky approach to me. He has to either get me to vote scamper or get scamper to believe that he is clearing me today and willing to vote me tomorrow.

[Coral]

I don't know why town!meg decides that I could make sense as scum partners with Phoenix late yesterday while rereading at prompting of Datisi, but instead of expressing those thoughts at all, continues to defend me, waiting to turn until after letting the elimination on Xayah go through.

The argument I suppose is that they were still more confident on Xayah and needed to see that flip in order to re-evaluate, but it seems pretty convenient.

I also think their trajectory today was overinformed. They were prepared to clear scamper before the massclaim had completed, and then their reasoning for clearing scamper was based on the massclaim.

[Coral]

The nightkills have put me in an incredibly awkward position if i was scum and I don't see how you can justify me actively harming my position like that.

What alternative kills could have given you a better position?

[Coral]

Why is killing Ausuka better than killing Don, at the time the kill was made? And Gamma wouldn't get eliminated here, so how is that the worst possible kill? Everyone else besides Ausuka is under suspicion and a possible elim target.

[Coral]

Especially since galrons claim d1 implies scum do not know much pregame info about the setup.

This is maybe a decent point, actually. If scum are informed, I'm not sure why Galron chooses to fakeclaim rolecop there.

[Coral]

Yes, I will !

I'm thinking about things but I don't think there's any world where I don't vote Meg here, and maybe there isn't any point in waiting. I just hadn't yet in case anyone had anything left to say, but I suppose Datisi and Ausuka can always talk in the hood overnight if the game isn't over.

[Coral]

Okay, might as well

VOTE: Meg

[Coral]

but i had found megs as town and couldnt save them

When did you ever try to save Meg? If you had found them as town, then why did you never make any sort of argument for why their play was towny?

The only thing I see is 1338 about their role, which is obviously not going to be convincing to anyone because nobody was arguing that the sole scum power was backup neighborizer. It doesn't feel like any serious effort was ever made to get people to understand why you thought Meg was town, so I don't understand why you have this sentiment now.

The only post I can find at all talking about why you townread Meg (after your argument with them, when you seemed to be going back and forth on if they were scum or not) is 1144 which is not a very convincing case either.

[Coral]

I think it's understandable to not feel that strongly about pushing for your own reads over the reads that other people have. I feel that way often.

I think it's understandable to feel frustrated that someone you strongly townread was eliminated.

I don't think it makes sense to feel the latter alongside the former. And I don't think you did much of anything to convince anyone that Meg was town. Yes, you cased me. But Meg was the primary candidate for elimination for most of the day. You had plenty of opportunity to talk to the people that you thought were town (or in Ausuka's case, confirmed town) about

why

you believed Meg to be towny on play. You didn't do that. Maybe you thought that nobody would listen, maybe you thought that Meg had to be eliminated anyway. But in that case, I don't see why you would come in today talking about how you tried to save Meg and how you were so strongly sure that they were town. Where did you explain this? What posts did you make that were aimed at conving others that Meg was town and shouldn't be eliminated? If they wouldn't listen to your posts about me being scum, isn't it at least worth it to try a different approach and see if they will listen to your reasoning for Meg being town, if you felt that strongly that they were?

On the other hand, there is a lot of incentive for you as scum to not work too hard to convince people that Meg was town. You can let town eliminate them for you. They're not fighting back much. And you get to keep your progressions clean and just continue pushing me the next day while also acting like you had things right all along.

[Coral]

I think that if your reasons for townreading them are strong enough to convince people not to vote for them, then they may be strong enough for that feeling to continue through to the next day, so you may be hesitant to argue for that too strongly. It's true that you would probably gladly take a f3 with Meg in it but I don't think that's enough to not be content with letting town kill them.

[Coral]

My issue right now is that I think that there's setup reasons to think that you're town and setup reasons to think that Datisi is scum, but on my reread of day 1 overnight, I found that on play I thought it was a lot more likely for you to be scum. I'll go into my reasons for that tomorrow.

I'm unlikely to ever feel happy weighting setup speculation over dayplay, but it also feels like I can't ignore it, despite part of me wanting to. Meg was treating you as nearly cleared based on setup. I should give at least some value to that.

[Coral]

This is probably a minor point but before I get into more detailed responses, I noticed a few times people mentioning the NRG when considering the setup. Reminder that we're in the Micro queue, and although the setup is Normal, it was reviewed by Schadd, and not necessarily the whole NRG. I don't know if that affects any assumptions being made, but just in case.

[Coral]

I would probably assume that it would be redacted, but I was not made explicitly aware of what would happen. Why?

[Coral]

At the end of day yesterday, did you miss 1385 from Datisi, or did you choose not to respond to it?

The non-response to that was what made me feel that you didn't really care about convincing anyone Meg was town even when they reached out to you about it, but you seem to be implying today that you felt you weren't ever even asked.

[Coral]

I would probably assume that it would be redacted, but I was not made explicitly aware of what would happen. Why?

i ask because were you at any point afraid you that info would be lost if you died without claiming?

not really, I guess? maybe I should have been?

I didn't think that i was at all likely to die night 1, and even if I did, my neighborize shot on Ausuka would have gone off, so she could have claimed the info for me. I suppose that does leave some possibility that she is making up the info but I didn't really think that far in advance because, again, I thought overnight that I was likely to be a main candidate for elimination on day 2 and there was no real reason for me to get nightkilled.

I did also try to make it my earliest stated opinion on the game, and would hope that would help people deduce what the information was if they saw that I flipped informed.

[Coral]

like, i think it is fundamentally correct i didn't care at that point but it was that i felt my arguments were falling on deaf ears and didnt care to repeat myself and deadline was approaching. town can have lapses in motivation too.

I can understand that, I think the progression is a bit more believable as town if you didn't notice the question, and I guess you might be unlikely as scum to just flat out ignore it if you did see it. The counterpoint would be that if you were still considering Datisi to be scum, I would have expected you to be reading his posts to try to sort him, while as scum you might not feel much of a need to do that.

I just feel that the way that Datisi went out of his way yesterday to towncase you and me is a townier approach. He wants to get all of his thoughts out there, he wants to fully explain all facets of his reasoning, and that includes both why Meg was scum and also why everyone else was town. That's also dangerous to do as scum knowing that he will end up in a 3p elo with the two people he just towncased -- he has to reverse his position on both of us, and he has to hope that his cases weren't convincing enough for us to townread each other.

And on the other hand, when I asked you to expand on why you were confident calling Datisi town, you went and found a bunch of reasons why he could be scum, and you never went into detail on why Meg's play was towny. It's believable that you could do that as town (i don't at all mean to say you're scummy for not being confident on Datisi town, since that is a very reasonable position, to be clear), but I think that the play does benefit you if you're scum, moreso than Datisi's play yesterday benefits him.

[Coral]

(also, datisi, I am answering your earlier question, I promise, there's just lots of things to talk about )

[Coral]

i wanna ask since youre here: how do you believe you have played this game differently in contrast to Open 854?

That game had a pretty similar scenario d2 to if I were scum here on d1, where I had a partner who wasn't very active and was kind of a consensus compromise scumread while all the active people talked amongst themselves. My approach there was to have a strong presence and get widely townread, try to push the thread in directions away from my partner, and to case people to set up for pushes on future days.

I made multiple mistakes that day phase, though, ones that I probably would try to avoid repeating. The biggest one, I think, was not pushing hard enough for a town elimination. I had an opportunity to choose the days elimination and I didn't take it out of the hopes that it would get me towncred (it didn't get me very much). My interactions with my partner were also weak, and I ended up just kind of weakly supporting the elimination without actually getting any credit for the bus.

I think it's fair to argue that this game, if I were scum, I did set up people for pushes on future days, and I did have a similar trajectory where I weakly supported the Galron elimination without actually getting any credit for a bus.

The differences (and ones that I think are town-indicative) are that here I didn't really make any efforts to Be Towny and create a strong presence, or push strongly for any town eliminations. And although you can't exactly trust me when I say that I would avoid repeating the same pattern of weak partner interactions and weak positioning surrounding their wagon... I most certainly would.

Day 2 and onward I cared more about trying to solve things with Ausuka than about performing for the main thread, which I don't think would really benefit me as scum beyond the fact that I get to say this now.

[Coral]

well you did say yesterday that you were snapvoting datisi in elo

I know none of us really thought that would happen but he probably still would feel a little threatened by that

[Coral]

I'll think about your other points

[Coral]

Hi! Checking in to say that I won't be around much at all tomorrow. I don't think I have any new opinions right now. I guess the only thing would be that I'm more and more thinking that it could just be Galron, as nearly everyone else seems to be achieving some level of towntelling.

My guess would be that it's one of Galron or Xayah but not both, alongside... Don or Datisi? I haven't thought about that too much but it feels reasonable

these posts edge toward galron being scum without directly pushing him, right as datisi is moving toward pressuring galron and the thread is starting to turn against him. it looks like your classic progression toward being willing to bus. 765 and 909 follow up on that.

but it feels very inorganic? the idea that he suddenly leapfrogged ahead of don/xayah in her eads and that *everyone* else is towntelling isnt really expanded upon, she just says it. its like she realized that was the only wagon likely to go through and had to position herself for it

i would like to see coral comment specifically on this post

as for the rest, i wanna reread some of it in context, and i gotta go get ready for work so i'll do that after i'm home tonight

I assume you're mostly asking about why I felt that other people were towntelling? I have an analysis of day 1 that I want to do in a bit, but I will also point out here that I don't think that Galron was at all the only wagon likely to go through at this point. A lot of people had their attention elsewhere. I don't think it's accurate to say that this was "right as the thread was turning against him".

My previous statement of my overall read on the game was 279. In there, I had Xayah and Don as the scummiest, then Ari and scamper, then maybe Galron, maybe Datisi.

In 476 I point out a reason I felt Ari was towny. She then became obvious town shortly after, as her argument with Meg was pretty recent, prior to my 595.

In 489 and 494, I respond to Don's wallpost about his mechanical speculation. In general I thought his mindset here was mostly towny, and some of the ways in which his reads shifted felt like they didn't make sense to me as scum. The continued consistency of effort also made me feel like I didn't really have as much interest in eliminating him over someone who wasn't doing anything, in Galron.

I thought at the time that scamper's handling of Ari vs Meg was towny, and that generally there were what I felt were towntells for them in that section of posting. I go into this a bit in 795.

I don't think there was really anything that I felt was especially towny from you in that part of the thread, but you were at least efforting and I didn't really have a lot of interest in pushing for your elimination day 1.

So that was why I felt like a lot of the people who were kind of in the middle section of my reads all rose up to feeling more town. And while I wasn't confident in calling all of them town, since some of them could be partnered with Galron/Xayah (as I mentioned at the time, Datisi or Don seemed still possible to me), I much preferred to just elim the people that I felt were still actively scummy first.

The two remaining were Xayah and Galron. I also, knowing Ausuka was town, felt a bit of inclination to trust her more than others, and she wanted a Galron elim most.

[Coral]

Oops, 765, not 795.

[Coral]

well you did say yesterday that you were snapvoting datisi in elo

I know none of us really thought that would happen but he probably still would feel a little threatened by that

i mean, i thought i made it pretty clear i relented on that and i feel like thats still kind of beside the point...

you did now, but we're talking about his towncases from yesterday, right? I don't know, i just think that it's pretty believable to me in general that he would as scum be worried about one of us finding the other as town and turning on him

[Coral]

he has also read the hood and seen that since night 1 even, I was considering who was more likely to be scum between you two, and that for the majority of the game i was leaning towards that being datisi

[Coral]

i guess i should say one of my issues with you this game in particular you have asked me why i townread someone and went "sorry, tats not convincing" and it times to me it felt like scum false curiosity, where you ask a question about someones townread knowing you are always going to shoot it down, because you need to ml townies to win and so you arent *really* interested. that is kind of how i have felt about you this game. again this isnt really anything you can respond to fairly, and im not expecting or asking you to. im laying out the thought i had, to try to be more transparent.

If I'm remembering those interactions correctly (I think it happened twice), from my perspective you gave a little one or two sentence summary of reasons that you had already stated, when the point of me asking was that I had already read your previous reasoning and I wanted to hear more. So me responding with "that's not convincing" wasn't intended to shoot you down, it was intended to prod you to go more in depth.

[Coral]

yes i gathered that already, I was hoping for more, because that isn't really very convincing to me. is there anything specific you can point to in her posts that you think feels that way, or is it more of a general vibe?

Can you go into that a little more? I think if we can be confident on Datisi being town then this game becomes much easier.

these are the posts I'm thinking of

I feel like that shows my mindset clearly of wanting to push you to expand on your reasoning, not disregard it. if I were scum who wanted to shut down your answer then I wouldn't be trying to get you to talk more about why you find people towny

[Coral]

@ the snap voting thing, okay, I understand. my point was just that, even though we all knew that you weren't actually going to do that, it did make it clear that you were at least considering voting datisi, and scumtisi would not be able to coast through elo by waiting for you to vote me

prior to you making that post I thought that you would almost certainly be voting me here. I expect that datisi would have guessed similarly. after you making that post, I didn't think that you were instant voting datisi, but my view of your position was still shifted because it seemed like you were at least open to considering both options

[Coral]

yes i gathered that already, I was hoping for more, because that isn't really very convincing to me. is there anything specific you can point to in her posts that you think feels that way, or is it more of a general vibe?

Can you go into that a little more? I think if we can be confident on Datisi being town then this game becomes much easier.

these are the posts I'm thinking of

I feel like that shows my mindset clearly of wanting to push you to expand on your reasoning, not disregard it. if I were scum who wanted to shut down your answer then I wouldn't be trying to get you to talk more about why you find people towny

i think that's a pretty basic move tbh

I agree, I don't think it would be hard to do what I did if I were scum. I was trying to refute your characterization you had of it in 1471. I don't think that my posts match with the motivations/perspective that you laid out in that post

[Coral]

he has also read the hood and seen that since night 1 even, I was considering who was more likely to be scum between you two, and that for the majority of the game i was leaning towards that being datisi

okay, i guess i should ask: were you worried coming into the start of today that i was town who would continue tunneling you?

At the start of the day I was feeling pretty convinced you were scum, actually. I expected that if you're town then you would give things a fair evaluation and wouldn't hard tunnel, although I would still guess that you'd likely in the end still come back to voting me.

I've softened on my stance somewhat, but my reread of day 1 overnight had me strongly leaning towards you, and I still want to dive into that a bit

[Coral]

I think we all hate being the one to decide in this situation

[Coral]

like i don't think you know how it feels to just have an entire game collectively shut down every read you have and ignore you and treat you like you're not worth anything and then when it's down to elo the last townie turns against you and calls you scum for not doing enoufgh when no one ever cared about a single thing you said the entire game


like the entire game was just working on a project to ignore me

if that was your perception of things, then I'm sorry about that. I know that games where a big chunk of the game is in a hood and you're not can be very frustrating.

from my perspective, this whole game I've been interested in your reads and that's why I've kept coming back to asking you to expand on your reasoning, because if you're town, I highly value your reads and abilities and I want to listen to them

you consistently seemed reticent about expanding on them when asked. I felt like there is possible scum motivation for you to not give details on why meg's play was town.

I don't think that anyone is calling you scum for not doing enough. If you're scum it's because of what you did choose to do and what your priorities were.

[Coral]

okay. i think thats because in general i have a really hard time getting my thoughts across to people and when i offer explanations they usually say they dont care so i get frustrated and give up. i think i have an ?easier? time explaining things as scum because again i know the answers and can just tell people something that makes sense to them. i am not reticent to expand and i dont have a problem with being able to make things up as scum, i just have really simple explanations for why i think most things

hmm

I did lightly townread you for essentially this in the early game, that you didn't feel any need to make things up further. But... I'm not exactly sure how best to put this, but I do think that you could easily get frustrated as scum at feeling like your effort is being dismissed. I guess I can accept though that as scum you would be more likely to want to put in work to look town through your explanations, especially without any completed town games on this account.

peronally, thinking i let meg go over there as scum by weakly defending them is not giving credit to my play as scum. i think in that instance i fight tooth and nail to keep meg alive as scum because at that moment, meg is my victory condition. i would want meg in elo knowing 1. meg is unlikely to vote for me 2. if meg does vote me i can probably win that 1v1 given that everyone else was scumreading meg more than me. this is similar to how i played the mini normal as scum: i was sort of pushing marci, but i realized that keeping her alive meant that she was very likely to be the one voted out in ELO (my partner actually mentioned this) so i pivoted to defending her that day. i would have done that here as scum given that you/me/dats is obviously a lot moe unfavorable to me than me/dats/meg would be (or me/you/meg in some world where i pivoted to pushing datisi)

This is a bit more convincing to me. I thought that you would want me in ELO since you can just continue your push on me that you've had all game, but after the hood reveal I expect that you would probably be worried that Datisi isn't going to vote me, and might then fight harder to keep Meg alive.

[Coral]

- ~secret tell~ i dont want to explain if its right

I hate that my immediate reaction to this is to believe it

why must my brain do this to me

[Coral]

I expect that you would probably be worried that Datisi isn't going to vote me, and might then fight harder to keep Meg alive.

Actually I guess if you have that reaction then Datisi isn't going to vote you yesterday either and so you don't have 3 votes, so maybe throw that chain of logic out the window

[Coral]

I know, that's why I hate that I had that reaction. I won't put too much stock in it, don't worry !

[Coral]

i think thatsa fair and believable mindset if you are town because i can see, from your end, getting exasperated with the person tunneling you and believing you are so obviously town that only scum would be unable to see it. and i think to some extent that was what you meant with the idea that i would not re-evaluate you? idk if i got that right, let me know.

to me a lot of your responses have been very reasonable to me in that you have basically said "fair enough but i disagree with so and so" but have not really gone about proving to me why i am wrong in my read. and thats fine. maybe its your playstyle, maybe you just thought it was a waste of time. but at the time i thought it was potentially scum!indicative and certainly didn't give me cause to reconsider.

but the thing about that is, at any rate, you have to take your ego out of it and not be upset at me misreading you if you're town. because i think if you follow my logic it makes sense for me even if you know its wrong, and also i just dont think its good play as scum to be hard tunneling you when seemingly the entire game wont bite on the push. and i am, right now, considering all possibilities and contemplating a town!you world and giving you every opportunity to show me why you are town

mmmm no not really, to the first paragraph? I don't think I'm super obviously town here on play. I think that the thing that is most alien to me to imagine doing as scum is the whole claim situation, but I also understand that to those who don't know me, that won't be convincing enough. I don't think that your push on me is that relevant to my evaluation of your alignment because I could see it coming from either direction.

As for the second paragraph, yes, I think that is just how I respond to such things as either alignment. In most cases I think I'm pretty good at looking at things objectively, and understanding what things about my play are likely to attract attention. On one hand, that can be helpful for avoiding getting tunneled on town who are pushing me for fair reasons. But on the other hand, I'm not very good at acting all bristle-y and getting people to stay away from pushing me, and sometimes scum can walk over me. I'm probably too understanding, on the whole

For the third, I'm not upset about your read on me at all. I agree that your logic is fine. I care more about your motivations. I don't think that your approach to this game could really be categorized as bad scumplay at all considering I think if you're scum you have a pretty good chance of winning here, from a situation that looked pretty dire after day 1 and a setup that seems to me like it's pretty townsided.

[Coral]

but i thought you going back specifically to say "here are all the posts scamper made about meg, scamper didn't explain his read on meg enough!!" was a nitpicky type of analysis that i can see coming from scum!you

I actually sort of felt this as well, for what it's worth, since it was a point that I felt I had already made, and laying out the quotes of all the posts didn't really add any additional analysis to the situation.

[Coral]

I don't think that your push on me is that relevant to my evaluation of your alignment because I could see it coming from either direction.

At the start of the day I was feeling pretty convinced you were scum, actually. I expected that if you're town then you would give things a fair evaluation and wouldn't hard tunnel, although I would still guess that you'd likely in the end still come back to voting me.

?

(not trying to pull a gotcha, just trying to understand how these two statements connect)

I'm not sure what you see as the discrepancy. I can try to rephrase the second quote, I have a feeling it wasn't clear? Maybe it sounded like i was saying "you didn't meet the expectations I had of what you would do as town, and that's why I think you're scum", but that wasn't what I meant. My thinking you were scum came before daystart.

My expectation at the start of the day was:
- scamper is probably scum. scum scamper has multiple possible approaches to the day. they could continue tunneling me at the start and just push that hard, or they could try to feel things out in order to predict who of me and datisi is more likely to vote the other and position themselves towards that angle (this is what I think you are currently doing, if you're scum)
- if scamper is town, scamper will probably not vote anyone right away, and will try to fairly evaluate both options (this would be where you're at right now if you're town). town scamper will probably, in the end, be more inclined to stick with their prior read, which would be me. that is by no means a guaranteed thing, but it's what I would predict

[Coral]

I don't think you are hard tunneling me today, and didn't originally either. I think that's the part that was unclear.

[Coral]

I thought you were scum due to my day 1 reread and am no longer as convinced on that point, but I will still go into the things that I saw... maybe later once Datisi is asleep and there's less real time interaction happening.

[Coral]

I don't think I'll get to it before you sleep since it will involve going back tracking progressions over the course of the day, which I sort of did mentally as I was reading but didn't take the time yet to write any of it down. I know we have a short phase here though, so I'll try to get to it tonight.

[Coral]

Okay, here we go!
Sorry that this isn't super well-organized. I've written it all out but I'm going to try to split it into multiple posts to roughly have individual points separated.

So the main thing I wanted to track as I was rereading is what the general town consensus was and how that progressed over time, to better assess how scum would have wanted to position themselves. In addition to that, I wanted to look at how each of Datisi and scamper approached the day, where and when they decided to push, and how their reads progressed.

Let's go !

[Coral]

Mostly skimming through RVS, and as we know, Datisi starts off pressuring Phoenix early, and scamper finds them towny (but criticizes my reasoning for finding them towny). There's an early wagon on Datisi, but it's not very serious, Datisi seems unconcerned, which I think is slightly towny. Phoenix gathers some early light suspicion from multiple places, and quite a bit of discussion surrounding him.

Things start to get more serious with the first Don wagon, with Datisi and Ari voting there. scamper votes me and suspects Xayah, I vote Xayah, Don votes me. Phoenix posts his readlist in 157, with Datisi and scamper near the top, and me and Xayah at the bottom.

Here I think is the first point of real significance. In 158 and the following few posts, Datisi doesn't understand the Coral or Xayah votes, casing why, and is a little suspicious of scamper for pushing there since they are places that Datisi feels are easy/surface level. He then notices the Phoenix readlist, and directly pushes back against it, criticizing both of Phoenix's main scumreads, and also directly calling out Phoenix's waffling read on Datisi.

I think this would be a really aggressive approach as a scum partner. It isn't just attacking Phoenix, it's using your strong thread presence and convincing ability to shut down scumreads that he has, cutting him off from pushing the people he wants to push. Pushing on a partner early is one thing, but this feels like it isn't even giving him room to breathe and develop.

[Coral]

Galron replaces in. There aren't any major pushes for a bit. Datisi votes Galron in 201, and starts that interesting back and forth with scamper about scamper's apparently easy pushes, and scamper replying that they think phoenix would be an easier push. Ari joins on Galron to make it 3.

This is where both scamper and Datisi's positioning towards Galron kinda flip. Galron has some entrance posts, Xayah and Datisi think they are at least decent, and Datisi moves his vote off, onto me. scamper then votes Galron in 259, criticizing the entrance.

scamper's switch onto Galron here is something that actually drew my attention when I was first looking back at things either night 1 or night 2. Phoenix could be written off as newbie and he efforts enough to probably dodge being eliminated day 1, although he would likely still be a candidate. Galron, though... in this playerlist, with Datisi and Ausuka as relatively charismatic players already suspicious of the slot, and Ari sheeping Datisi... Galron isn't going to post enough to get townread here, and in all likelihood will just die. scamper knows all this, and seeing two people call the entrance good for bad reasons, could have seen an opportunity here to jump in and pressure and get ahead of things, looking like they are going against the grain of town consensus onto scum. Of course, it's also possible that Datisi scum would want to back off for the same reason but opposite conclusion, realizing that if he wants a town elim day 1, he should find somewhere else to push quickly. Both possibilities are believable at this point.

[Coral]

Next there's a lot of back and forth with Ari thinking that Ausuka and Datisi are scum, Ausuka voting Ari (putting her at 3 votes), Don kind of existing in the conversation and seeming to agree with Ari. Datisi and scamper then both townread Ari, so no real difference there. scamper then starts suspecting and pushing on Don starting around 418, and continuing with 423, 431, 435, and 450. In 458, they add a suspicion of Datisi, and then unvote Galron since he doesn't fit in teams that they see.

Ignoring Ari vs Meg since it isn't really relevant here. scamper gets into it with Meg a bit as well, sometimes kinda suspects, mostly is just annoyed. Right after this is where thread sentiment starts to shift towards Galron again, with Ausuka re-voting in 564, Datisi reaffirming his suspicion in 583, and me mentioning my growing suspicion there in 595.

The mistake I made earlier was thinking that scamper didn't ever attempt to find a town elim as an alternative to Galron, because I only looked at where they voted, on Datisi and Meg. But they laid far more groundwork on Don, continuing here with 612 and 615, trying to convince Ausuka of the case. I think that there was enough latent suspicion of Don that scum could see him as the most likely miselim here, and it's something that I missed until I looked back overnight. scamper was the one who did most of the heavy lifting for the case, pushing people on that direction from the sidelines, pushing down on townreads, and generally trying to prod things in that direction.

[Coral]

Next up, drunktisi arrives! Townreads on Ausuka, Ari, and scamper. He starts to find suspicion on Meg with 628, 630, and 643. Datisi and Ausuka simultaneously start getting suspicions of Don (Ausuka in the present with 654, and Datisi still catching up with 650). Suddenly the whole thread feels like it's turning against Don, and he's feeling like a very possible elim (remember that I also have some suspicion there and could probably be persuaded to vote if it were an option). scamper pops in with 677 to criticize Don.

Ausuka ends up backing off a little, though, and Datisi ends the night here:

town - {ausuka, arii, scamper}
town??? - {xayah}
ehh... - {donempire, coral}
sus - {meg, galron}

all tiers are from townier to less townie

VOTE: galron

should be y-2? idk

ik he said he's off weekend but the fact that most active people feel lijke town right now is making me feel more like it's scum in lurkers, not less

i sleep

which is... very not doing anything to move things towards Don. It's even giving a convincing reason to just elim Galron. Datisi as scum would easily have room here to take advantage of scamper's Don case to push Don harder himself. He had plenty of ammunition. But despite exploring that direction a little bit, he didn't go for it. And his vote on Galron here is pretty much the nail in the coffin. Datisi was kind of the swing vote here, if he and/or Ausuka had ended up landing on Don, the end of day 1 looks very different.

[Coral]

scamper then has their argument with Meg. At the end of it, they say they want to vote Galron but doesn't want to E-1, so Meg does it. Which... probably was unexpected, actually, since they were previously voting scamper, just had a huge argument with them, and then scamper said that they wanted to vote Galron. It seems pretty possible to me that the argument could have been intentional from scum scamper, trying to draw Meg's attention and keep their vote from compromising on Galron (which they said they were willing to do in 626) due to the hope that they wouldn't want to work together with scamper.

Galron shows up with this post:

I'm not going to closely read the last 13 pages unless there's somehting I need to see. I did a skim through and I'm okay with limming donempire at this point. His whole e-1 thing doesn't read as genuine and his reliance on mech is easy to fake. I don't know who his buddies are but more votes on done please.

He clearly hasn't read things, but he probably has read the scum PT. And I would be willing to bet that somewhere in that scum PT is a post saying something along the lines of "i think i can get us an elim on don". That would be why Galron thinks that's where things are heading. The post, unfortunately for the scum team, looks awful, and is potentially game-losing if I'm right on this connection. I don't think that Datisi would be the one to make that post in the scum PT, because he had only 50 posts ago actively stepped away from the Don elim. scamper meanwhile has been setting things up for a Don elim for a while now. Predicting why Galron said that is the sort of speculation that I wouldn't want to bet the game on, but it is still a factor for me.

[Coral]

At this point the day is pretty much over and Galron is the elim. I don't think anything else from datisi or scamper is very relevant since they've both accepted his death. So, to summarize the biggest points from this:

1) Early game, Datisi went very hard on Phoenix, not only pushing him, but also not really allowing him to push the people that he wanted to push. Pressure on a scum partner early is useful when it allows you both to make more content in addition to the distancing. Datisi was shutting Phoenix's content down. It's a far more aggressive approach than I would expect scum to take in a 9p that has PRs.

2) Datisi switching off Galron when he replaces in, and scamper switching onto Galron. Both could be scum-motivated. The most important thing here to me is that Datisi's switch off mostly only makes sense if he is then afterwards trying to case people and move things towards a town elimination.

3) scamper laying the groundwork for a Don elimination. I think this looks especially bad with Galron showing up clearly thinking that a Don elim is likely. But even without that, the suspicion comes at a convenient time, they try to gather others to their cause, all while voting elsewhere in a way that looks like they're just sorting or emotional voting (on Datisi and Meg, respectively). All along, though, the main trajectory is towards allowing a Don push to be possible. If there were more options of who could be scum beyond just these two, I might consider how scamper as scum maybe could have gone all in to push Don harder and yet didn't, but the thing is...

4) ...Datisi did far less in terms of pushing town. Look at his ISO between the point where he unvoted Galron (228) and when he re-voted (701). I can't find any serious attempt to push town there. Even the vote on me is for a small reason, is mostly for pressure, and isn't really ever pursued any further. There's a lot of townreads of people, discussion, inquiries, pushing back on the scumreads people have on town. It all just looks like town trying to solve the game to me. I don't see any underlying agenda of someone who needs to find a way to eliminate town. When it gets to the point in the game where it looks like Don is a possible alternative, Datisi does find a couple reasons to be suspicious there, and then... votes for Galron. He doesn't take the town miselim that's sitting in front of him, he goes back to scum. He doesn't ever case or push anyone. And it's not like he's committed to the bus the whole time, he doesn't really ever take any efforts to make his position around the wagon look towny either.

We still have 2 days, so I'm open to hearing responses, but this is why overnight I thought it was scamper. Their posting today has swayed me a little, to be honest, but after going over it again and writing it all out like this I just have a really hard time seeing how day 1 makes more sense with a scum Datisi than with a scum scamper.

[Coral]

datisi how dare you interrupt, i wasn't finished

[Coral]

I am finished now though. that was longer than I thought

hopefully it isn't too rambly. I tried to cut out the filler and stick to the things I thought were important

[Coral]

datisi how dare you interrupt, i wasn't finished

well have you considered putting it all into the same post smh

I really did want to at least make some effort towards making it readable

[Coral]

and scamper, I obviously don't expect a response from you on everything. if you are town who thinks that I'm town who has come to the wrong conclusions, what I would most like to hear from you is why you think my reasons are flawed for thinking Datisi's play day 1 doesn't make sense if he's scum, and what you think his plans and motivations were

[Coral]

Good morning, friends

Before responding to all these things I'll say that I think scamper's idea about voting is rather nifty and I think it probably benefits town, so I'm good with it if Datisi is?

[Coral]

Well, good midday and good evening, actually, I suppose.

[Coral]

Hi!

very okay with a hammer on galron, still catching up and will see if there's anything I think needs to be responded to before then

what were your thoughts behind this post, coral? (ik it might seem like a dumb q but bear with me)

I saw Don post 834 and 853, and I hadn't checked in since Galron's claim (which happened while I was asleep). Claiming and then abandoning thread seemed like obvious scum to me so I was happy with a hammer there. I was busy all of the previous day so I hadn't really commented on a lot of what had happened, and thought I might still want to do so, but ended up deciding that there wasn't much that was relevant anymore.

[Coral]

why did you say "but not both" here?

god it really fucking sucks that coral wasn't around when i was drunk and there was a lot of pressure around don, because i think it would've been really informative to see how she played around that

I had a reason why I decided they were unlikely paired at that point, I'll try to look for what it was. I do remember that later that day, once Galron was looking like clearly scum, I reassessed the reason and decided it wasn't good. Maybe it was just that it felt like at that point both had disappeared and the game is never that easy? Xayah hadn't posted substantially for over 40 hours at the time I posted that. I think I also just tend to believe that it's very unlikely both of my top scumreads on day 1 are correct.

And I agree, it's unfortunate I wasn't around, but I had important things going on all day. I will just say that I think that it's pretty clear that I didn't make any real effort to push anyone in the days prior, or do anything to move things towards a town elimination. The fact that you did the same is part of the reason I feel you're more likely to be town. If you think I'm scum here, I'm just wondering what you think my approach or my plan was?

I think that a point that scamper criticized, about how I had a wide candidate list in 279 and then over time I gradually found reasons to townread all of those people except for Galron or Xayah, while also making no case or push on Xayah, is actually pretty +town for me. I don't see how that advances scum wincon at all.

[Coral]

like, some of scamper's posts are obviously like, bad in retrospect, but there seemed to be multiple points where he could've argued against a galron elim harder than he did. like if scum, it seems like he was planning on throwing shade on multiple people and hoping someone latches onto it so that galron doesn't flip, *but* he didn't do that in one of the bigger shitfights of arivaus, and there were better arguments he could've done against possible misyeets

like, if he's scum then he kinda-but-not-really let galron die, and that feels weird? at least it feels weird from a more experienced player, i probably would've been scumreading that from a newer player

and i'm wondering if d1 would've played out differently if a scumbuddy was more present, which scamper was, but coral wasn't really, at least not in the latter parts of the day

I don't understand why these points apply to making scamper town and not me? Just because I was busy that weekend, so I wouldn't have had time to post if I was scum? I was posting for around 3 hours on Saturday (and could have made time later in the day if I felt like it was important), but my focus was mostly on just kind of engaging with what was going on, I ended up finding some reasons to townread a few people, and didn't make any pushes on anything. If I were scum there I would have taken a more active role in pushing things towards a town elimination. I'm capable of doing that and it is generally my priority.

[Coral]

This is where both scamper and Datisi's positioning towards Galron kinda flip. Galron has some entrance posts, Xayah and Datisi think they are at least decent, and Datisi moves his vote off, onto me. scamper then votes Galron in 259, criticizing the entrance.

scamper's switch onto Galron here is something that actually drew my attention when I was first looking back at things either night 1 or night 2. Phoenix could be written off as newbie and he efforts enough to probably dodge being eliminated day 1, although he would likely still be a candidate. Galron, though... in this playerlist, with Datisi and Ausuka as relatively charismatic players already suspicious of the slot, and Ari sheeping Datisi... Galron isn't going to post enough to get townread here, and in all likelihood will just die. scamper knows all this, and seeing two people call the entrance good for bad reasons, could have seen an opportunity here to jump in and pressure and get ahead of things, looking like they are going against the grain of town consensus onto scum. Of course, it's also possible that Datisi scum would want to back off for the same reason but opposite conclusion, realizing that if he wants a town elim day 1, he should find somewhere else to push quickly. Both possibilities are believable at this point.

i awsnt to point out this bit because the logic here is really strange to me

because when i was rereading, i felt like that was the sequence that was *most* +town for me. with a fresh replacement in the slot, and a bunch of people townreading him for bad reasons, that is the perfect opportunity to get eyes off the slot, and i do the opposite of that. i go in on the attack, i directly criticize galrons reasoning, i dispute people saying his posts were good. i dont do that as scum if i dont have to. in the mini normal, while i pushed on johnny for lurking excessively, i found excuses to unvote him if i could, when people were wrongly townreading him i mostly let it happen - i think i said i was unsure on him a few times but i didnt *directly attack him**. i won bus if i dont have to and that is especially true in a micro cuz you can lose the game thru night actions after a day 1 scumflip. so in this position i think attacking galron is clearly +town or should be seen as such.

(theres also a little thing about how galron pushing don was technically in defense of me and how i dont really think he has the guts to defend a partner like that,and how i was suspicious of don there (i think) but immediately chose to attack galron instead because his reasoning was bad. but those are smaller points that may not be as convincing).


so what i find puzzling is you examine tha same sequence and your first interpretation of it is to assign *scum* motivation to it, by suggesting i am trying to "get ahead of things" by opposing town consensus and pushing on galron. and to me that is a really weird and counter-intuitive conclusion to reach? like anything of course can be a bus. and from your pov one of us has to have bussed. but to go "this person was pushing scum against thread consensus so they were probably trying to get ahead of things" just doesn't make much sense to me. why can't i just be town who correctly scumread galron's entrance? and if i'm "going against thread consensus" what am i trying to get "ahead" of, exactly? you act like the slot was destined to die because datisi was scumreading it, but datisi was one of the people who backed off because of galron's entrance. so this really doesnt make sense to me...

If this were day 2 or day 3, I would agree with you. I would think that you're more likely to be town for this (and I did at the time!) because it is a surface level towny thing to do. But there's nobody else left at this point, it's either you or Datisi. So I have to sort through and decide which pattern of play benefits scum more. Neither of you are surface level players. You both would be setting things up to go deep here. You're both very capable of making moves like this to point to later as reasons for why you're town.

My point with this section was to examine both of your actions. I laid out a possible scum motivation for both of you, it wasn't just about you. My conclusion was that your actions look good, at the cost of adding some pressure to a partner. Datisi's actions look bad, at the benefit of relieving some pressure from a partner. Both are possible choices that you could make, as I said. But what's important is seeing how the rest of the game plays out in surrounding this choice, in order to provide context for it, and see which fits better into an overall pattern of scumplay.

For yours, some of the pressure is not as strong as it looks since two people just backed off Galron. You have some room to work with. You also later find a reason to back off Galron while still finding him scummy (he isn't paired with anyone else you're suspecting, which is very clever, and you also, i've just realized, you don't have to worry about anyone calling you out for relying on preflips/hero solves since you have no completed town games to compare to). You then proceed to push elsewhere.

For Datisi's, it looks bad, but then... he does nothing? He doesn't ever push anywhere else? What's the point of relieving that pressure if he doesn't then place it somewhere else? He's very capable of doing so and absolutely would do so as scum. He can easily make up a case on Don or Meg or someone, just like you did.

The point is that both of you would be making a tradeoff with your actions there, and it presents a question -- which one of you took further action that aligns with that plan? You responding by saying "well actually I look towny for that" is dodging the point completely. I'm aware that you look towny for that. That's why you did it.

[Coral]

I think that a point that scamper criticized, about how I had a wide candidate list in 279 and then over time I gradually found reasons to townread all of those people except for Galron or Xayah, while also making no case or push on Xayah, is actually pretty +town for me. I don't see how that advances scum wincon at all.

i would not say you "gradually found" reasons to townread those people, or if you did, it did not show up visibly in the thread. it read more like you were setting up alternatives until they no longer became viable wagons. show me where you found reasons to townread don, ari, or me?

like you can say: i narrowed down my suspects via process of elimination to arrive at galron being scum.

but from what is visible in the thread i don't see that happening, and that also coincides with the rest of the thread starting to encircle galron for not doing anything. so it seems fairly convenient in terms of its timing especially with you not having been very active to that point

I think I went over this in 1468 with Datisi. If you have more questions beyond what's answered in that though, let me know!

[Coral]

Hi!

very okay with a hammer on galron, still catching up and will see if there's anything I think needs to be responded to before then

what were your thoughts behind this post, coral? (ik it might seem like a dumb q but bear with me)

I saw Don post 834 and 853, and I hadn't checked in since Galron's claim (which happened while I was asleep). Claiming and then abandoning thread seemed like obvious scum to me so I was happy with a hammer there. I was busy all of the previous day so I hadn't really commented on a lot of what had happened, and thought I might still want to do so, but ended up deciding that there wasn't much that was relevant anymore.

mmm

did you have any thoughts on the actual claim?

I probably would have if I had seen it happen live, but by the time I got there he had already been missing for several hours after claiming and that was much stronger of a reason for me. On seeing it as I was reading up, though, I did immediately think that it didn't seem like a role that really fit with my role, but I'm not very confident in my setup speculation abilities, so it wasn't a reason I was going to hang anything on.

[Coral]

i mean, you can say i was "laying groundwork" or whatever and that is probably a little close to how i played scum in my last game, i would suggest someone as a suspect and let town do the work, but i think in this game i would have realized i needed to make actual pushes to get a wagon thru. maybe i wouldnt have. idk. but i think if i *wanted* to flip don i wuld have gone for it rather than doing what i did. a lot of my day 1 was wrapped up in trying to play like skitter and that included me voting dats but not raelly pushing him, just wantig to talk to him. i think i was playing in a way that was pretty un-tactical as scum

Okay, but you still did more to push things towards a town elimination than either me or Datisi did. I like the bit about you getting wrapped up in playing like skitter, that's pretty funny (and kinda cute actually), and does explain a few things. I did think your vote on Datisi to try to talk to him was a little strange.

[Coral]

which is... very not doing anything to move things towards Don. It's even giving a convincing reason to just elim Galron. Datisi as scum would easily have room here to take advantage of scamper's Don case to push Don harder himself. He had plenty of ammunition. But despite exploring that direction a little bit, he didn't go for it. And his vote on Galron here is pretty much the nail in the coffin. Datisi was kind of the swing vote here, if he and/or Ausuka had ended up landing on Don, the end of day 1 looks very different.

this is also...really odd because it presupposed don was the viable scum driven counterwagon here when...the ones pushing it were only galron and me, sort of? and the idea that scum!tisi would push that vote and not doing so and taking any other route is towny is just weird to me

and i did think at the time that datisi moving momentum back toward galron was +town, but he didnt really agitate for other people to vote galron. i guess you could say from the tenor of his catchup posts he could have easily made a push on don instead and so the decision and timing is good but if you look at the wagon state it wasnt necessarily a guarantee people would join there. i guess what im saying is while i think its a good look for datisi but you are treating the vote as far more influential than i feel it actually was

I don't think that you and Galron were the only two suspecting Don at all, though. He had a lot of early suspicion, I still had some left over, there was an argument that he had was Ausuka where Ausuka was finding him scummy, and he's also just kind of generally outside the pool of familiarity that it would be very difficult to eliminate within on day 1 (I would put you, me, ari, datisi, and ausuka in this group). Another possibility would be Meg, but me and Datisi townread them. Look at page 27. I think the sentiment there is obvious, and there's quite a bit of pressure towards Don.

[Coral]

i mean, againi think this is weirdly over-elaborateand does not take full consideration of whether the play makes sense tactically. i do think me pulling my vote off galron is not soething i should be claered for and my timing of doing so is like something i would do as scum. but the initial push is just suicidally bad as scum. you are aguing "it was safe because other peole backed off galron"> but what if my callout makes them change their minds? there is a risk with every distancing action you take that it can add momentum that spirals into an elim. pushing galron at that point time as distance carries a very real risk of him getting flipped if my arguments are actually persuasive.

reasoning like this comes across as you *wanting* to say i am scum more than having a logical thought process for it. that doesn't necessarily make you scum because town can do this sort of thing too (unfortunately) but it is frustrating to deal with.

I don't want either of you to be scum but one of you has to be

And that's fair, it would be a risky play, but the overall pattern still looks more like a scum agenda to me than Datisi's play, and those are my only two options

[Coral]

the idea that i get into a heated thread bloating argument with someone where i accuse them of being disingenuous as a scum tactic to keep them from voting my teammate is just...rather far fetched? personally when i get into arguments as scum its because i want to discredit my attacker and maybe make things so tedious that people will tune out because hey dont awnt to hear anymore of us, so the arguments against me will fall on deaf ears. i think u could very plausibly think that was what i was doing here and i wouldn't have a problem with it. i think if i was scum i would have actually tried to push meg strongly rather than just staking potshots at them and implying they are bad. i did bbriefly make a vote on them but it was an emotionalone and i retracted it later, i would have no problem going full bore calling meg lockscum if i was scum. but since i am town my job is to acually try to figure out peoples alignment and not just blindly try to kill them because they displease me


so again, the thought that i got into an argument with meg *to keep their vote off galron* is just bizarre to me

Shrug. The point of me looking at that section is not to say that you are scum for it. In isolation, it's absolutely something that I would lean town on. The point was more about considering "is there any world where this makes sense as scumplay?", and I decided yes, I think there is. Maybe my reason is far-fetched and your reason is better. The point is that there exists a reason, and it's a believable enough reason, so it's something I can't clear you for. That wasn't very clear in my original post, but it is what I meant.

If I were smart (or scum) and cared about having a case that people wouldn't be able to pick apart for having weak reasons, I wouldn't include that. But it's part of my thought process and I like to share my full thought process as town and I just naively assume that in doing so my townie energy will shine through

[Coral]

the thing is, obviously galrons partner did not succeed in saving him, so obviously scum did not play fully optimally. and if you argument was that i was trying to save him with what i did...couldnt i have tried to do a lot more than i actually did?

"we didnt do anything to help galron" is just not very compelling to me as a towncase because you dont always have the influence to make that happen. and to me it looked like you did try pushing on other people but didnt have the presence to actually push for a wagon, if you are scum. if datisi is scum he just didnt have other places he felt safe pushing

You could have, but that would be the first thing that people would look for if Galron did flip (which he almost certainly would at some point). You can see in the hood night 1 how I am very tempted to clear you for the fact that I felt you didn't push as hard as you could have on town. Doing that is what got you to ELO here. And yet you still did some, tried to feel things out to see if anything was viable, and looked In general like you weren't pushing anything hard yourself but were positioning to be ready to jump on any of the people who were the most likely alternatives, if town ever ended up pushing there. Unfortunately for you, they never really did.

You say it looks to you like I did try pushing on other people, who would that be?

[Coral]

the thing is, hypothetically, does scum!tisi need to actually push townies that much after moving off galron? if no one is pushing him and people are giving his partner some grace he can stay in the background and not have to push anyone. he called ari/ausuka/meg townie but called everyone else muddy so its not like he was cutting off his options.

...yes? what? when have you ever seen Datisi play like this

[Coral]

because first of all it's implying a degree of communication that rarely happens in scum PTs, and secondly its trying me to him because we both were pushig don to some extent. and that doesnt really make sense. if i am pushing a don elim to that point i have done a really poor job actually persuading anyone. so the idea that i go and tell galron "dw, i got this, we can kill don, just keep pushing him" is ??? to me.

and like, coral has played scum before. she knows this is not how scum teams operate or how they communicate. this doesnt really make sense.

I say things like this in scum PTs all the time

I don't think it's that uncommon? Like maybe even something like "you really need to post, don is looking like the most likely possible alternative right now" seems not at all unlikely

[Coral]

You should just be glad I'm not bringing up the point about coaching Phoenix to break his pattern of scumreading his scum partners, because I know that's a little ridiculous but in my heart I really do still believe in it

[Coral]

the thing is, hypothetically, does scum!tisi need to actually push townies that much after moving off galron? if no one is pushing him and people are giving his partner some grace he can stay in the background and not have to push anyone. he called ari/ausuka/meg townie but called everyone else muddy so its not like he was cutting off his options.

...yes? what? when have you ever seen Datisi play like this

Okay actually hmm I did just have a moment of seeing your point

[Coral]

I guess if both of you failed to save Galron then maybe both of you just did what you felt would make you look the most towny

I still don't think that Datisi takes such a lackadaisical approach to the day as scum though. Not that he wasn't efforting, but that his efforting just felt like solving, and not like advancing scum wincon.

[Coral]

When did I push her after 182?

[Coral]

i dunno it's just your logic is really bad and narrative twist-y and seems to be working from the conclusion i am scum rather than evaluating reasonably or thinking about things in a way i can understand. the idea that wouldn't have weak reasons as scum is, well, i guess you can claim you're able to argue perfectly but i don't think that anyone is

i hope this is just you pushing a case as scum here but i have been let down enough times that i cannot be sure

I'm working from the conclusion that one of you is scum, and trying to figure out which narrative makes sense more, so yes, that's more or less exactly what I'm doing.

I townread both of you, that's why I preferred elims on Xayah and Meg. But one of those townreads is wrong, and I have to figure out which one. In order to do that, I like to look at the reasons I had for townreading people and try to imagine how they could fit into a pattern of play that makes sense for scum. If I can do that, then I assess whether that play is more likely than them just being town. If I can't do that, then I still see them as town.

In this case I can look at both possible patterns of play and directly compare them, because I know that one of them is coming from scum. So far I've found more ways that it feels like your play kind of clicks as believable from scum, and not a lot of ways where it feels like Datisi's play makes sense to me as coming from scum.

[Coral]

And it's not that I can always argue perfectly as scum (although I do think I'm generally better at making sure my arguments are clean and convincing as scum). It's that as scum I would care more about making a case, and convincing one of the town that the other is scum, and I want to look good doing so, and not leave them a lot of room to push back.

As town I just want to solve the game and reach the right answer, and explain how I got there. Maybe it's a flaw in my play that I am less focused on how rational those reasons will seem to others, since it can make it easy for people to disregard my points, but I can't really help it. And I'm always happy to talk more and clarify my thought process further.

[Coral]

I think that he probably had that thought leftover from earlier, when it did seem like a Don elimination was possible. I think that it was only when Datisi voted Galron that his death seemed inevitable. I don't know exactly what the scum PT would look like, but if you're scum with Galron, I imagine that at some point you said you were hoping for a Don elim. Maybe after that you posted either of the things that you mentioned, but he still could have that idea in his head.

[Coral]

I had something similar happen with Cakez in my previous game, maybe that's why the possibility was on my mind. I'll see if I can find it.

[Coral]

Okay, here. I'll spoiler this since it isn't directly about this game.

Spoiler: from Eurybia's Curse

Prior to the start of day 3, where we desperately need a town elim but have a very narrow POE to work with, I lay out what I think our plan should be and where it's most likely that we elim.

Subject: Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Mafia PT

So, the only thing we really need to do is keep you alive. the townblock that we choose will likely be leading things. that makes me want to not put Faker in, and means there is some benefit to putting Meuh in.

The fact that nobody escaped actually does give us a slight advantage, it means the obvious miselims are still available. For example, marci.

I'm trying to consider if there's any world where the paranoia on Isis or Ari is worth leaving them unconfirmed. Would they ever hard bus, knowing that they'd have to confirm 5 others? I just don't really think it's believable. Isis and Ari in the townblock will shield me as well, hopefully.

GL seems like an obvious clear as well. He's not getting eliminated. He had a Pav/gamma teamread as well, which I'm going to be trying to play up.

Fruit would be a gamble to leave unconfirmed, but he seems like too obvious miselim bait, and I think the players here are smart enough to know he's town.

So I think for me it's down to Meuh or Titus. I will reread some and see if anything stands out.

It will make for likely a very tough game, where I'm fighting it out with skitter and faker, but I think it's winnable. There's even a world, I think, where I go very hard today to push a town lim and escape myself and hope you can coast in final day since they'll be looking for someone more widely townread. I don't think it's our most likely path, but it's a possibility

yea I still think that's best

remember all you need to do is survive today

feel free to do some crime

I think as long as I don't get traced back with bad Pav associatives we can def make Gamma or Marci the lim here today

we definitely could have if gamma wasn't faker now... i will try but i think it will mostly be in vain, but hopefully we can end with a compromise on marci

We go in thinking that Marci is our best shot at miselimination. Cakez will push there, I'll push elsewhere but end up willing to compromise if necessary. The day progresses for a while, and due to various circumstances, Marci is no longer looking like the best option and looks concerningly like low hanging fruit. I post this:

this is going to be tricky actually, because i don't think marci is the lim today, it's probably meuh. which means i have to flip skitter tomorrow. which means i have to post the case today. hmm.

Then Cakez shows up in main thread and continues his Marci push.

Subject: Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

I guess I'm just confused why Meuh decides to unvote where she did because

(1) Pavo didn't do anything townie
(2) the people voting Pavo and joining her weren't being scumread by her?

it's such a weird hop off to me.

I really think its meuh, this just seems so scummy to me

Basically this + my PoE has led me to Marci + Meuh

and posts this in the scum PT:

We are doing really well we just need to not rock the boat
Maybe find a way to slide towards scumreading skitter and meuhs more

We were not doing really well, things were actually quite dire, but he was busy and wasn't super active in thread and didn't have that great of a read on things and felt like we could just keep moving forward with the previous plan. I hadn't really been laying out the extent of how the situation had developed in the scum PT because, like you said, sometimes teams don't always keep each other up to date about everything that's going on, because they expect that the other partner is reading the thread and can see the same things. In this case I should have, because Cakez sticking on Marci and not developing his read there at all put him in a much weaker position. I think the situation with Galron could have easily played out in a similar manner.

[Coral]

Spoiler: additional thought i forgot to mention

You can also see in that how he thought that the Gamma slot was still an easy miselim, despite that Gamma had been replaced by Faker a while earlier, who is very difficult to miselim. The plans changed as a result of that replacement but he didn't quite update his own pushes to respond to that in time. Galron's post here just heavily reminded me of those vibes, where he comes in and is like "yeah guys this is still the plan, right? let's go!", not fully realizing that the situation has changed completely.

[Coral]

I think that it is perfectly reasonable to suspect that based on that post, Galron thought that Don was the best chance at a miselim. I will stand by that.

I also think that, considering you did more to position for a Don elim and Datisi actively stepped away from going down that path, it's more likely that you if scum were planning for a Don miselim than Datisi was if scum. I really don't think that's ridiculous at all.

[Coral]

The third point would be that I expect that either of you or Datisi, if scum, would share in the scum PT at some point what your general plans are and who you think is most likely to be miselimmable.

Which of those do you find too ridiculous to be credible?

[Coral]

i think it is beyond ridiculous to assume that makes us likely to be partners given that i immediately crapped on his reasoning for don-scum when to that point i had been suspicious of don. if i wanted to start a wagon on don i dont shut down my partner pushing him because its just undermining what im working toward

You pushed back on Galron's Don reasoning in 259. At this point you were saying that you thought Don was overconfident town (269). I don't see any reason to think that you would have been planning for a Don elim at this point in the game.

Your read pivots starting around 418. That's when you start building up a case on Don, and unvote Galron. From that point until where Datisi votes Galron instead of Don (or Meg), you keep that suspicion. Probably the peak of likelihood of Don's elimination was around when you posted 677. This is the point that I'm talking about, where it feels like a Don elim is any scumteam's best shot at avoiding an elim on Galron.

The timeline you're providing here just isn't really relevant to what actually happened in the game, or what I'm talking about.

You can insult my logic and be reductive of my point all you want, but I feel like I laid it out pretty clearly and asked for what the issue with it was and you just dodged that completely to talk about how your vote on Galron way back on page 11 was about his Don suspicion.

[Coral]

if i wanted to start a wagon on don i dont shut down my partner pushing him because its just undermining what im working toward

Like. This is so incredibly divorced from the point that I was making. Nowhere did I say that you were working towards a Don elim in the first 10 pages, although you did have some suspicion there at first. I've spent posts and posts talking about how that push developed in the mid part of day starting in 418.

[Coral]

I don't see any reason to think that you would have been planning for a Don elim at this point in the game.

so again isnt th simplest explanation that galron showed up, found something surface level he could push don on, and stopped paying attention to the game?

Yes, that's a valid and believable explanation, for the most part, although I would still question why he seemed to believe that a Don elimination was imminent.

I don't exactly think that this is some huge pillar of my case or anything. It's a relatively minor point. I barely even mentioned it in the summary that I had.

[Coral]

if "peak likelihood" of a don elim was...1 vote, from galron, and me, his alleged buddy, pushing him but NOT voting him, just criticizing his logic


thats not a compelling or believable case

I don't think this is worth talking about if you either can't or pretend to be unable to see that there was a significant amount of latent suspicion on Galron that hadn't been expressed in votes.

[Coral]

if thats the case then why are you doubling down on it?

Because you keep asking about it and I am a fool who is unable to stop trying to explain my thought process in a vain attempt to be understood

[Coral]

no, ur point is that i suspected don and galron was pushing don so that makes us likely to be partners because galron made a post about how we should elim don so we must be communicating in the pt.

This is clearly not my point because if these events were what happened then I wouldn't be talking about it since it's obviously a non-issue. Maybe that's what it looks like to you, but I think I've been clear enough already. One last time, though.

Galron entered, having not read the thread, seemingly under the impression that a Don elimination was imminent.

That's weird. That's unusual. Why would he think that? One possibility is that he simply was just thinking back to his prior push there, and hoped that by some miracle everyone would follow him. One possibility is that he skimmed a bit and saw some pushes towards Don, so he thought they were likely. One possibility is that his scum partner was trying to get Don elimmed, and mentioned that plan.

I'm not sure which possibility is most likely. Maybe #2 is. #3 seemed compelling to me, but I could just be wrong. You probably wouldn't have chosen this point to tear apart if it was exactly correct, so I kind of am doubting that it was at this point, but oh well.

In the case of #3, which possible scum partner was trying to get Don elimmed? scamper was, certainly more than Datisi.

Yes, it's a bit of a leap. I don't think it's by any means guaranteed to be what happened, and like I said when I first brought it up, it's not something I would ever want to base a read on. It is a minor factor for me, though, and I do think that the reasoning is fine.

[Coral]

if "peak likelihood" of a don elim was...1 vote, from galron, and me, his alleged buddy, pushing him but NOT voting him, just criticizing his logic


thats not a compelling or believable case

I don't think this is worth talking about if you either can't or pretend to be unable to see that there was a significant amount of latent suspicion on Galron that hadn't been expressed in votes.

Oops, I meant on Don here.

[Coral]

i am arguing that i made no attempt to capitalize on it and the crux of your argument is scum!me was trying to miselim don to save galron

This is something that's much more worth disagreeing about, since other points that are actually important hinge on this. I'm happy to talk about this some more after I go eat some lunch.

[Coral]

i dunno. my problem is while i dont think its outrageous to see me as scum here your thought process doesnt seem very good to me and has serious issues with its logic but you are either unwilling or unable to admit to these flaws when i criticize your thought process

I don't really think the core of it is flawed, but I do understand how there's other possibilities and it could be wrong for me to judge that this one is more likely than any of the other, perhaps simpler, possibilities.

In my explanations I was trying to explain my original thought process rather than my current one. I am less convinced on the point now than I was originally.