Night Watch Open 95 - Game Over before 703

[orangepenguin]

I'm not entirely convinced by your explanation of Panda Stomper 64's untimely demise, but I'm willing to downgrade you and vote the humorless villain orangepenguin.

I am not the humorless villian. I am the waddle-talking serious pro-town penguin.

[bionicchop2]

I think the consensus is that a hypoclaim is the best option here.

I think this option is very pro-town, so I am going to start a popcorn style hypo claim. Nobody has to follow obviously, but I am not one to sit around and wait for others to act.

If I am hider, I will target Xtoxm. I almost want to target afatchic because more coverage would be provided, but I will stick with Xtoxm.

I choose camn to go next.

bionicchop2--->Xtoxm

If everybody could quote the hypoclaim and add theirs, it would help. I would also say that anybody can change their hypoclaim at any time once we get the first pass done (may change their mind and find a better option). Just quote to last one and edit yours.

The reason I want to move this along is so we can use the rest of the day period scum hunting. It is easy for scum to blend in with strategy talk once a consensus is reached. They can easily just agree that the action is pro-town. For that reason,

unvote TCS

. My vote was a reaction to his disagreement with the strategy. In hindsight, this does not make him any more likely to be scum and may actually make him less likely to be scum.

On the flip side of that, I will

vote icemanE

for following me on that vote. I remember from my only other open game played (polygamist - xtoxm will remember, will link if needed) that scum jumped on me and my town lover twisting our statements to seem like we were against the pro-town course of action decided on. Nothing concrete here, but this vote is better than my previous one.

[afatchic]

bion- also include who you hid behind last night, this bring up cleared townies and makes it easier.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

If the actual hider dies as a result of targeting mafia, we have one confirmed mafia.

Otherwise, we essentially have this situation. If multiple people say that they are going to hide behind one person, then we are essentially making it more statistically likely that the mafia will get a double kill in one night, an eventuality that confirms no one but the dead.

Also, when people choose to "hide" behind mafia members, and they do not die, then mafia members will know they are

not

the hider, and further increase the likelihood of a double-kill.

Am I missing something? We are essentially gambling for a 30% chance of getting an investigation in exchange for a townie death, while increasing from 12.5% to the mafia's odds of getting a double kill with no town upside.

On the other hand, we might as well gamble for the investigation, because the longer the hider hangs around the better the chance that such a double kill will occur. My caveat would be, however, that not too many people choose to hide behind the same person.

Ok, I convinced myself.

I still don't see how this plan confirms innocents, though. Anyone care to shed some light on this for me?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

An innocent from previous hiding nights. I get it. Doh. Let's do this.

LEEEEEROOOOOYYYY JENNNNKINNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[afatchic]

TCS the odds of the hider getting double killed is very high. however if we don't do anything to try and use the hider to our advantage we will never get the innocents that they found. and once they die we can go and figure out who the innocents are.

[StrangerCoug]

Mod: The title still says it's Night 1.

[icemanE]

Getting voted by bio for agreeing with his logic - classic.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

TCS the odds of the hider getting double killed is very high. however if we don't do anything to try and use the hider to our advantage we will never get the innocents that they found. and once they die we can go and figure out who the innocents are.

I agreed with you. You should really read posts to the end before replying to them.

[camn]

I will hide behind Bionicchop2. I hid behind bionic last night and I didn't die

so

bionicchop2--->???, Xtoxm
camn-------->Bionic, Bionic

[bionicchop2]

Since I forgot to mention who I hid behind last night:

bionicchop2--->camn
camn-------->Bionic

bionicchop2--->Xtoxm
camn-------->Bionic

[bionicchop2]

Am I missing something? We are essentially gambling for a 30% chance of getting an investigation in exchange for a townie death, while increasing from 12.5% to the mafia's odds of getting a double kill with no town upside.

You are still forgetting about the remaining watcher - so mafia needs to be cautious about who will be watched.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Since camn didn't mention who goes next, I'll volunteer. I'm a hider, and last night I hid behind Crazy. Tonight I will hide behind Crazy.

bionicchop2--->camn
camn-------->Bionic
TCS--------->Crazy

bionicchop2--->Xtoxm
camn-------->Bionic
TCS----------->Crazy

Next is Crazy.

[afatchic]

just out of curiosity does anyone other than me see something going terribly wrong with the hypoclaim?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

just out of curiosity does anyone other than me see something going terribly wrong with the hypoclaim?

I can, but I do see there being some merit in being able to confirm what happened with the hider should the hider die.

[bionicchop2]

just out of curiosity does anyone other than me see something going terribly wrong with the hypoclaim?

If somebody picked mafia n1 in their list , then mafia would know which ones are fake.

Maybe we should skip night 1 for now?

[afatchic]

just out of curiosity does anyone other than me see something going terribly wrong with the hypoclaim?

If somebody picked mafia n1 in their list , then mafia would know which ones are fake.

Maybe we should skip night 1 for now?

hmm.... hadn't thought about that, when we used this before it was with a cop, so that didn't really matter.

however my problem was, as a hider your job is too clear townies, and eventually find the mafia, resulting in your death. you just have to breadcrumb it enough to let the town know who you are visiting each night. so therefore.... why would you visit the same person n1 and 2?

[ortolan]

What is suspicious to me ort's seeming fixation on figuring out what to do with the Hider role.
First he says

The watcher should either play like a vanilla townie for the whole game or claim now...

then

I didn't suggest they should claim

then launches into a convoluted plan, with statistics and everything, that is defeated by the wiki.
THEN, when afatchic brings up his idea (which, to reiterate, I

like

), Ort grabs THAT and runs with it.

.. it all seemed suspect to me last night after getting home from the bar... and I have certainly gotten lynched for less

First of all; to repeat, when I say I did not suggest that they should claim, I mean I did not suggest this was the only option- I clearly stated that an alternative way of playing would be to go through the game as a vanilla townie. Secondly, as far as I saw it, based on the roles described by the mod, my plan was flawless. I have not played in a game with a hider role previously, and have no knowledge of what might be considered "conventions" for them. Thirdly, as this is an open setup, if it is true that the hider dies if they hide behind someone who is killed, then it seems a reasonable expectation that this fact might be mentioned by the mod in the "hider" description. Finally, you are talking as though it has actually been confirmed that the hider in this game functions the same way as it does in the wiki, rather than in the way implied by the mod's description. We still have not received clarification on this.

Mod: Does the hider die if on any particular night they hide behind someone who is killed on that same night?

I also find it amusing that you think that if I was scum I would try a ploy that could only work if no-one were to read the wiki.

Also how does the fact that I started supporting afatchic's plan as soon as I realised that mine was potentially flawed whereas his didn't seem to be suggest I am scum? As soon as the possible flaw in my plan was brought to my attention I reevaluated it.

camn- sorry i misunderstood what you was trying to say, but i get it now. i also thought ort seemed very scummy with his behavior over the PR's, but it seemed somewhat newbish to me, just something to keep in mind though.

however i don't really agree with what TCS is saying. first by doing what i said, it would give an inno from last night upon the hiders death. if the hider dies, plus a nk on a person the hider didn't claim to hide behind, you have caught one mafia. finally, if the hider becomes so obvious that the mafia know who to shoot and get a double kill, then it should be obvious to the watcher, and yet again we catch a mafia. IMO this seems like the only way to make the most of the hider role.

So can you please explain how this plan is flawed....? FOS TCS

Agree with your point about the watcher. I made basically the same point in relation to my original plan. See

To reiterate, if the hider claims and says who they will hide behind (and they can be verified by EITHER the watcher or the rolecop, who DON'T have to claim the following day unless they find that the hider is lying)

(post 55).

So this means that even if the wiki is correct, if the hider hid behind someone who was then killed by the mafia after reading what the hider would do in the thread, then the watcher would have watched the person whom the hider was hiding behind, and would be able to say the next day which mafia player killed them. Of course, this is still not a very good outcome for town, because it entails the watcher dying, another townie (who might be the rolecop) dying, and the watcher having to claim in return for one mafia player.

The same point applies to afatchic's plan however- if multiple people claim they will hide behind the same person, then the watcher should target this person. This way if the scum try to target that person then the watcher will at least be able to identify them, as would have been the case in my original plan.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

afatchic brought up a good point. I'm changing the person I hide behind tonight to Panda Stomper 85. Perhaps some good can come from my death.

bionicchop2--->camn
camn-------->Bionic
TCS--------->Crazy

bionicchop2--->Xtoxm
camn-------->Bionic
TCS----------->Panda Stomper 85

[bionicchop2]

Mod: Does the hider die if on any particular night they hide behind someone who is killed on that same night?

If the person the hider chooses to hid behind is killed that night the hider will die too.

[camn]

afatchic DID bring up a good point.
I usually just Hide as long as I can, and use my knowledge in the endgame.
But I havn't been the Hider that many times.
I'll try it his way......

bionicchop2--->camn
camn-------->Bionic
TCS--------->Crazy

bionicchop2--->Xtoxm
camn-------->afatchic
TCS----------->Panda Stomper 85

Oh, and Ortolan is back with a FURY!
I know bionic quoted it for you.. but it is true. The Hider operates as usual.
And at this point I don't

particularly

think you are scum. I just think you make bad decisions. But you COULD be newbie-scum just as well as newbie-town. . so don't try and weasel around it that way
Excessive Worrying about setup is a common scum-tell IMO..... that is all.

[icemanE]

My main concern with the plan is that, if the mafia luck out and hit the hider on their own, we might make the mistake of assuming that the hider hid behind mafia and lynch someone based on their hypoclaim - that could be a problem, now that I think of it.

[bionicchop2]

My main concern with the plan is that, if the mafia luck out and hit the hider on their own, we might make the mistake of assuming that the hider hid behind mafia and lynch someone based on their hypoclaim - that could be a problem, now that I think of it.

I don't understand what you are saying. If mafia targets the hider directly, the result is a no kill unless the hider did not hide. The only way the hider dies when hiding is by hiding behind mafia or the person they hid behind is shot.

Once dead, we look at who the hider hid behind the night before. If it matches the other player who died that day, then they obviously did not hide behind mafia. If the player they hid behind is alive, that player is mafia.

[icemanE]

I guess I was confused by the role then.

To clear it up - If the mafia target the hider, it will kill whomever the hider hid behind instead of the hider? But if the hider hides behind scum at night, the hider dies?

[bionicchop2]

To clear it up - If the mafia target the hider, it will kill whomever the hider hid behind instead of the hider?

No.

If mafia (X) targets hider (A) and hider is behind another player (B), it looks like this:

Code: Select all

X ------------------------
                     BA

Result = no death

If mafia (X) targets player (B) and hider (A) is behind player (B), it looks like this:

Code: Select all

X ----------------BA---

Result = bullet goes through both.