Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame

[Aisa]

It is hilarious to me that Klick's plan may just work.

Infinity might be scum. Aisa might be scum.

If we vote the scum between them, the other dies, and then if we miselim after that the other scum just kills a conftown.
If we vote the Doctor, both conftown die and we're left in 3p ELo after we vote the other claim (unless they're both telling the truth!).
Neither of these are great outcomes.

If we leave both claims alive and aim for SK:
If we hit SK, it's likely just game over, we win.
If we don't hit SK,

Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK

, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.

Aiming for SK is just better.

Suppose Infinity protects Klick, I protects Hiraki. Under this plan, whoever is anti-town between I and Infinity can just shoot whoever we are supposedly protecting. However, we can fix this! We can just say that whoever is doctor between I and Infinity will just 50/50 between you and Hiraki, as originally planned.

More thoughts soon.

Whoever is anti-town between I and Infinity cannot just shoot whoever we are supposedly protecting because that is equivalent to claiming scum :')

[Klick]

Actually I'd like to see a plausible explanation from anyone for either Infinity or Aisa fakeclaiming Doctor today as scum.

Infinity as scum/SK sees that they are completely screwed, and they're holding up the ancient groupscum-SK bloodbond known as "fuck the Town".

I did something similar as SK once, so. If at least a few people are like me in that regard, then I could see it happen.

This is the one explanation I'm leaning towards at this point. But I think two Docs is a legitimate possibility. I also believe we benefit from having two Doc claims alive,

even if one of them is scum.

[Lucian]

I guess my issue is that I think A) if there is scum between Aisa and Infinity, it is always Infinity, and B) both of them actually being Doctors is too unlikely to bet the game on it.

Because I'm not sure it's worth it keeping both Doc claims alive when we're just postponing having to actually resolve them. I dunno.

[Klick]

It's not betting the game, my argument is that we go into night in an objectively better position by leaving them both alive because they allow us to limit our SK options without losing our confirmed town (unless they want to properly throw the game).

[Aisa]

This is Klick's plan as I understand it. I am essentially repeating what they say, but it's a fairly complex plan, so maybe it will actually help both me and others understand it?
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The game is now split between two elimination pools. Me-Infinity and Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian. There is very likely exactly one anti-town person in each pool. To keep it simple Me-Infinity is the mafia limpool, Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian is the SK limpool (but the other way around is possible!)

We are an even number so we can afford an extra nightkill tonight if that happens.

Eliminating in the mafia limpool today likely results in a conftown death tonight.

In order for eliminating in the SK limpool today to be any better, you want this to cause a nightkill on the SK limpool or on mafia. (If the NKs are on Klick-Hiraki and/or whoever is doctor, you'd want to eliminate between me-Infinity tomorrow, at which point you've just switched the order of eliminations.)

IMO whoever is SK in Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian could plausibly no kill, kill between me-Infinity, or attempt to kill between Hiraki-Klick, so we shouldn't be relying on them to provide the useful kill.

I think you're right however that mafia has to 1. kill in the SK limpool, 2. no-kill, or 3. essentially claim mafia.
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The biggest problem for me is that if mafia believes they are screwed and decides to, as Lucian says, "fuck the town" by no-killing or claiming mafia then you've just switched the order of eliminations. Any elimination in Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian today is bound to be rushed, so it is only worthwhile if we think we have a good chance of getting that extra nightkill in the PoE.

[Lucian]

One benefit of not eliminating in Infinity/Aisa could be to let scum solve that issue for us. It would be cool if they shot the scum there, but I think it's more likely they just shoot Aisa who's probably Town, and then we're still killing Infinity tomorrow pretty much always.

Them shooting outside the pool would have a non-zero chance of shooting non-Town. Or narrowing our pool, I guess?

But the cross-shooting is still possible if we miselim today.

I think I'm still in favour of eliminating Infinity Today. I just really think they're the scum in the CC's. And as nice as cross-shots are, I worry the more likely scenario is that two Towns die and we're in ELo earlier than planned.

[Klick]

No-killing is fine for us. They give us more chances to get the SK then

The vote being rushes is also fine considering the benefits we receive, long careful consideration likely won't help us that much in accurately choosing an SK to vote

[Lucian]

The way I see it, unless we hit exactly the scum in the 4p pool, then Aisa likely just dies tonight anyway, Infinity is eliminated tomorrow, and we're back to hunting the final scum in the 4p pool, except we let Infinity get an extra shot on likely Town. Or not get an extra shot if they wanna troll us.

I just don't see the benefit of leaving a very-likely-scum alive for the Night and letting them get a shot off. Especially if they know they're losing the game anyway, they can very much decide to fuck us over rather than make an "optimal" shot and shoot the SK or whatever. People can be petty.

[Klick]

And as nice as cross-shots are, I worry the more likely scenario is that two Towns die and we're in ELo earlier than planned.

This is not optically different at all from what will happen if we vote in the Doctors today.

Best case scenario, we vote Infinity and they flip scum. We have two chances to get SK tomorrow and next day.
Worst-case scenario, we have one chance if we hit Doctor today.

Whereas if we aim for SK today we might get cross kills or have 3 chances at voting our SK out.

[Klick]

The way I see it, unless we hit exactly the scum in the 4p pool, then Aisa likely just dies tonight anyway, Infinity is eliminated tomorrow, and we're back to hunting the final scum in the 4p pool, except we let Infinity get an extra shot on likely Town. Or not get an extra shot if they wanna troll us.

I just don't see the benefit of leaving a very-likely-scum alive for the Night and letting them get a shot off. Especially if they know they're losing the game anyway, they can very much decide to fuck us over rather than make an "optimal" shot and shoot the SK or whatever. People can be petty.

Again, this is not 'screwing us over' because it's putting us in exactly the same situation we'd already be in.

[Aisa]

...I think the plan actually works? There is the chance Infinity has just decided to screw the town at this point, in which case we're a bit worse off than planned tomorrow, but I

think

killing should be better than no killing for Infinity?

And yeah as mentioned, Lucian, we're even so two nightkills today will get us to 5 players, which is no worse than 6.

In principle I'm down for some last minute SK hunting if others are down and people don't see a flaw in the plan.

Also, I'm jealous now, I wanted to be the queen of advocating for weird plays before deadline <3

[BlueBloodedToffee]

If we're going SK I'll vote Gamma.

Otherwise, I'm not moving off of Infinity.

[Gamma Emerald]

Actually I'd like to see a plausible explanation from anyone for either Infinity or Aisa fakeclaiming Doctor today as scum.

I feel like it could have been a last-ditch saving throw from Infinity
Aisa I don't feel like makes sense as scum fakeclaiming

[Gamma Emerald]

tbf I don't think whoever is the true doc makes it past tonight assuming all possible kills last night were attempted
since infinity and aisa claimed different n2 targets, unless a crosskill happened, a kill was stopped
whichever scum did the stopped kill knows who they targeted last night so they know who is legitimate in this scenario

[Gamma Emerald]

here's an idea I had
if we think there's a shot both claims are legit, that's when we should elim elsewhere, and they should protect each other going forward I think. A doc loop could only be broken by mafia and SK killing the same target, which would be very unlikely.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

They're not very likely to be legit though

[Lucian]

if we think there's a shot both claims are legit, that's when we should elim elsewhere, and they should protect each other going forward I think. A doc loop could only be broken by mafia and SK killing the same target, which would be very unlikely.

So have the conftowns just die, and take away the ever so slim possibility that the Doc claims get solved via Night actions, still forcing us to eliminate there later? Horrible plan.

I think Infinity is scum and voting there is optimal. I think BBT is Town, and I don't have a huge preference between killing in Gamma and CSF as I have no clue who's a possible SK there.

Still in favour of voting out Infinity, not sure if I prefer voting out a maybe-SK or no-elim.

[Aisa]

tbf I don't think whoever is the true doc makes it past tonight assuming all possible kills last night were attempted
since infinity and aisa claimed different n2 targets, unless a crosskill happened, a kill was stopped
whichever scum did the stopped kill knows who they targeted last night so they know who is legitimate in this scenario

This doesn't seem like the crucial consideration for deciding which plan to go with.

I still think the best argument for Klick's plan is that we may get an extra NK in Gamma-BBT-CSF-Lucian, which would help SK hunt. I don't think I have seen a complete argument against this yet.

Going away for a few hours now but will be around later ~

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Let's vote out scum because it's town's win con, yeah?

Then we can go from there. SK could likely just no kill and then the plan is out the window, no?

[Lucian]

I think I'm just going to turn my brain off for the remainder of this Day phase and sheep BBT. Cheers.

[Klick]

The 'let's vote out scum because it's scum' argument is reductive and shows evidence of either not considering the plan critically at all or actively wanting the plan to not happen for other reasons

There is zero downside to aiming for an SK today. There is not a scenario in which it turns out worse for us than voting Infinity or Aisa today, and it's rather likely to work out well for us.

[Klick]

I strongly advocate for voting BBT and Lucian in the next two day phases if Infinity flips Mafia and I'm dead.

[Klick]

Particularly Lucian comes out of this conversation looking a lot worse than before. He's considered the plan but insists there's a downside that he doesn't want to demonstrate.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I mean, mislimming town is bad, no? Unless you're saying you're prolific at SK hunting (which you're clearly not because you're advocating for my elim)

[Klick]

Mislimming town that we would vote tomorrow anyway and then no conftown dying at night is better than voting scum, conftown dying at night, and then mislimming the town.