Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame

[Lucian]

I demonstrated the downsides. We're shooting blind in a pool of people we have no clue how to sort while letting a Mafia with a Nightkill get another shot off. It doesn't benefit us. You could argue it maybe doesn't screw us over due to us being at evens right now, but that's not that better when there's 2-3 confrimed Towns in the game.

Whereas if we aim for SK today we might get cross kills or have 3 chances at voting our SK out.

How do we get 3 shots at voting the SK out. We get one Today. Assuming we miss, and both kills go off, and assuming both hit Town which is just what is likely (non-Infinity scum won't shoot Infinity, and Infinity is likely to miss even if they do aim for scum, which they won't but besides the point), that's 5 alive tomorrow. That's 2 elims period, both of which have to be correct and only one of which can be used on an SK.

[Lucian]

no conftown dying at night

I'm sorry, in which universe does this ever happen.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

This ^^^

[Klick]

and assuming both hit Town which is just what is likely (non-Infinity scum won't shoot Infinity, and Infinity is likely to miss even if they do aim for scum, which they won't but besides the point),

The convenient assumption you're making.

Infinity!scum shooting in our SK pool is a good thing. They also might hit scum. They're also incentivised to aim in the SK pool if they don't want to actively gamethrow.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

How can scum!Infinity hit scum?

[Lucian]

and assuming both hit Town which is just what is likely (non-Infinity scum won't shoot Infinity, and Infinity is likely to miss even if they do aim for scum, which they won't but besides the point),

The convenient assumption you're making.

Infinity!scum shooting in our SK pool is a good thing. They also might hit scum. They're also incentivised to aim in the SK pool if they don't want to actively gamethrow.

You can't gamethrow if you've already lost. Infinity knows they're basically a dead person walking right now. I have zero willingness to have faith in them doing what is "optimal".

[Klick]

no conftown dying at night

I'm sorry, in which universe does this ever happen.

Infinity protects me. Aisa protects Hiraki. Conftown cannot die without confirming a scum to us.

Also you're conveniently ignoring that we could just... vote the SK today. Today counts as a shot at SK in this situation.

[Klick]

VOTE: Lucian

[Lucian]

It's a convenient assumption, but is it wrong?

Infinity either hits Town (you can say it's a good thing all you want, but they'll probably kill the Towniest person in the pool), or they just no kill for the memes. Even IF they hit the SK, they're likely to be bulletproof.

Like, the only scenario in which we get a dead scum from this is if A) Infinity is SK, B) they against all odds hit a deepwolf in the pool, and C) they decide to shoot in the first place.

Them not killing / hitting a BP isn't helpfuil because we're back to evens then.

[Lucian]

no conftown dying at night

I'm sorry, in which universe does this ever happen.

Infinity protects me. Aisa protects Hiraki. Conftown cannot die without confirming a scum to us.

Also you're conveniently ignoring that we could just... vote the SK today. Today counts as a shot at SK in this situation.

I didn't ignore that, I specifically included that in my post.

I don't know why YOU are ignoring the reality that non-Infinity scum just smokes Aisa tonight and forces us to have to eliminate Infinity Tomorrow.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Can someone tell me the letters for set up? Phone posting so can't look at it properly.

As I understand it though we would have to have at least DDDDMVxxx for the claims to be correct? DDDD seems hella unlikely

[Lucian]

We're confirmed to be in DDVMxxx. We need to be in DDDDVMx for both Doc claims to be true. I calculated it as 2.7% chance for that.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Only 1 kill from scum/SK each night is strange.

I wonder if scum have hit the BP on SK as opposed to doc protecting a kill? Aisa said she protected Lucian and CSF? I guess I could see Lucian being shot N1 but I don't see CSF being targeted N2

[Aisa]

I haven't read the latest mech arguments. Just popping in to say that while I think Klick's plan is good, we also have to keep in mind town morale. We have 24 hours left and even I am at the point where I don't feel like forcing people to effort if they don't want to.

I realise it's a bit rich of me to say this, idk, I've had a change of heart.

If

people want to effort, great, let's follow Klick's plan or keep discussing mechanics. I'd maybe look for SK in Gamma/CSF but it's not a strong read.

If people would rather just take it easy that is fine by me and let's just get Infinity out.

I strongly advocate for voting BBT and Lucian in the next two day phases if Infinity flips Mafia and I'm dead.

Particularly Lucian comes out of this conversation looking a lot worse than before. He's considered the plan but insists there's a downside that he doesn't want to demonstrate.

I don't know. Keep in mind Gamma has also checked in. She hasn't said no to your plan but also hasn't said yes, that can be a way of stalling in itself. They can't all be SK. "Let's just follow the plan we had in place" can be a helluva drug and that may be all that's going on here.

[Lucian]

It's also ignoring the fact that we have a basically caught scum RIGHT NOW, and seeing who the final scum shoots will give us more info for SK hunting, which is basically a crap shot right now. But vote me for not agreeing with your plan, I guess.

[Klick]

no conftown dying at night

I'm sorry, in which universe does this ever happen.

Infinity protects me. Aisa protects Hiraki. Conftown cannot die without confirming a scum to us.

Also you're conveniently ignoring that we could just... vote the SK today. Today counts as a shot at SK in this situation.

I didn't ignore that, I specifically included that in my post.

I don't know why YOU are ignoring the reality that non-Infinity scum just smokes Aisa tonight and forces us to have to eliminate Infinity Tomorrow.

To 'have to' eliminate Infinity tomorrow instead of 'having to' do it today?

Infinity!scum is not confirmed, as much as you're either confbiased or really willing that to be true

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Gamma's play looks very SK-like if that's a thing? Kind of floating by in the game without doing much pushing or drawing too much attention?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Infinity scum is extremely likely though

[BlueBloodedToffee]

As opposed to the 2.7% chance that they're actually a Doc.

[Lucian]

I'm ignoring the possibility of them both being Town because in that case, fuck this game.

Look at how both Infinity and Aisa have been playing after their claims. Who strikes you as more likely to be scum there?

[Klick]

I'm annoyed because I was right last time I argued something along these lines too but I also wasn't listened to because people just see likely scum and want to vote likely scum without thinking.

Whatever, I'm out with the kids and am going to stop devoting that time to this

[Lucian]

without thinking

-_-

[Klick]

I demonstrated the downsides. We're shooting blind in a pool of people we have no clue how to sort while letting a Mafia with a Nightkill get another shot off. It doesn't benefit us. You could argue it maybe doesn't screw us over due to us being at evens right now, but that's not that better when there's 2-3 confrimed Towns in the game.

Whereas if we aim for SK today we might get cross kills or have 3 chances at voting our SK out.

How do we get 3 shots at voting the SK out. We get one Today. Assuming we miss, and both kills go off, and assuming both hit Town which is just what is likely (non-Infinity scum won't shoot Infinity, and Infinity is likely to miss even if they do aim for scum, which they won't but besides the point), that's 5 alive tomorrow. That's 2 elims period, both of which have to be correct and only one of which can be used on an SK.

I feel like the utility of one of our SK options being taken out for us by a NK is being ignored. Even if it is Infinity, they aren't just going to... shoot me anyway? That's ridiculous, no one is going to blatantly gamethrow and it's fairly insulting to suggest otherwise. They would shoot in the SK pool, or No Kill. Either of those are good outcomes. You keep saying that Infinity is 'not likely' to hit the SK, and that we're 'not likely' to hit it if we aim for it today, but like... that's true whenever we do it? What makes it a lot more likely that we eventually DO hit the SK is if we possibly give ourselves another shot at it. Which is a lot more likely than you want to pitch it as.

Furthermore, there is no downside to us aiming for an SK now compared to tomorrow. Even if we miss, Infinity!scum kills me, and SK kills Aisa!Doctor. That's no downside, we're in 3-1-1 with a confirmed scum. Which is exactly what would happen in the reverse order, if we voted Mafia now and then miselimed tomorrow. We'd be at MyLo instead of ELo, with no confirmed town alive.

And that's only worst-case. You don't know how scum are going to act. But at worst, they can make the situation exactly the same. There's a good chance it turns out better for us though.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VOTE: Gamma

[Lucian]

VOTE: Gamma