Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

[fireisredsir]

ok i have a test for whoever shows up first

Spoiler:

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: donempire

caught one

[fireisredsir]

ok i have a test for whoever shows up first

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

BEEP BOOP. HELLO FELLOW HUMANS. I AM A HUMAN LIKE YOU. BEEP BOOP.

I THINK THIS IS PROBABLY RIGHT. WELL DONE, YOU PASSED

[fireisredsir]

I joined this game just to flirt with the cute moderator and because he invited me.

his invite dm said that he liked me, i was kinda ngl

im gonna frame it and put it on my wall

why aren't you going to mindlessly tunnel me this time? did you finally roll maf?

[fireisredsir]

i know everyone

[fireisredsir]

not everyone knows me

[fireisredsir]

they seem to be somewhat tongue-in-cheek

but the random town reads from Aristeia make me uneasy, especially in this setup

this sounds like a post made by someone who feels obligated to start posting real content but doesn't really have much to say yet

[fireisredsir]

i thought about it but you were so kind to not tunnel me that i decided not to

[fireisredsir]

i unironically decided earlier that you were maf if within the first few pages you didn't talk about the value of keeping your reads secret for later in this setup

congrats on being town

[fireisredsir]

yes i agree

idk what the optimal way to play it is but i just know that town!you would be thinking about it

[fireisredsir]

idk what the optimal way to play it is but i just know that town!you would be thinking about it

wouldn't scum!Ari be thinking about how town!Ari would play and how town!Ari would think about it? I don't think this is a town indicative thing

shhhh im letting her pocket me

i think its slightly town indicative. i don't think that ari's main priority as scum is to match how she'd play as town, and i don't think most people would really would have that reaction or that she would expect them to. so if it was performative it was a very directed performance

[fireisredsir]

they seem to be somewhat tongue-in-cheek

but the random town reads from Aristeia make me uneasy, especially in this setup

this sounds like a post made by someone who feels obligated to start posting real content but doesn't really have much to say yet

Code: Select all

Do you believe this is due to AI programming, or a simple human instinct?

that is indeed the question that we are trying to answer

[fireisredsir]

I might be being unfair if this is a strategy you've relied on in the past but the first one especially pings me because it strikes me as highly unlikely that anyone would be able to get reasonable value out of trawling through past games of a bunch of players they are unfamiliar with as the very first step to getting to know them.

i do this p much every time im in a game with someone i haven't played with before/read a game of before

i find it valuable bc it gives me a baseline understanding of what that person is like as a player and that gives me context for the things that they post in this game

i also just find people interesting conceptually and like to try to understand how their brains work

[fireisredsir]

interesting

I am skeptical of the value of cold meta versus personal history with someone when it comes to returning anything alignment indicative but I won't argue the point

i think it helps to filter out things that are not AI. i don't know if it actually always makes people easier to sort, but in theory it at least stops you from getting distracted by things that are just playstyle/personality (such as, for example, the things that you took issue with about kuti)

[fireisredsir]

@Fire, same. Mostly I play this game to understand people. Speaking of which.
Are you scum?

people are neat

im not scum, sadly. are you?

[fireisredsir]

I was hoping you might panic a little bit if I laid it on somewhat thick

i also thought you were doing this (possibly with impure intentions) but ig it's probably a good sign that you admit it

i assume you believe that they would be more likely to panic if they were scum?

[fireisredsir]

@Fire, same. Mostly I play this game to understand people. Speaking of which.
Are you scum?

people are neat

im not scum, sadly. are you?

I'm third party.

Fire you need to tell me if you're scum. It's in the rules.

it's a good thing im not scum then, im really bad at breaking rules

[fireisredsir]

1) im v aware how logic works. my take was that ari as town would talk about that like 100% of the time and ari as scum would talk about that some amount less than 100% of the time. idk how much. maybe like 70%. therefore ari talking about that increases the probability of her being town. i don't think i made any logic mistakes here at all actually

2) i think she would be capable as maf of figuring out that it's something town would care about. i just don't really think she would care that much about making it known that she was thinking about it. this is the part of the read that is a guess, which is why i don't think it's that strong of a read, bc my guess could be wrong

3) this is a point specifically about ari bc i was thinking about her early posting in eurybia's curse and how she was posting about how she was keeping her reads secret while also kind of jokingly outing that read anyway as possibly a reaction test or something. i thought that this setup had some similarities and so that was why i made the mental note of it to see how she would approach it. her post 43 followed a very similar pattern. she knows that i read that game, and you were in it. i don't think anyone else would be likely to make that connection or be especially likely to think that it was something town!ari would be more likely to do, so if it was performative, it was specifically for us

[fireisredsir]

is it a lie that im not scum or that im bad at breaking rules

im p sure both are true

i don't like breaking rules at all, it makes me feel sick

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Lokie Dokie

[fireisredsir]

im 100% sure im town and probably like 85% sure im human

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Lokie Dokie

VOTE: fire

You’d better explain this naked vote dude.

do you really think your pop in was so undeserving of a vote that it demands explanation

i find that hard to believe

[fireisredsir]

originally it was bc i didn't like the way you entered without commenting on anything that had gone on

now its bc i think your response to being voted is scummy

[fireisredsir]

one down four to go

[fireisredsir]

oh ok i didn't know who you were lol

UNVOTE:

no longer think this reaction is unbelievable/scummy

[fireisredsir]

i went and skimmed some past games and you have a pretty recognizable playstyle

[fireisredsir]

i think dann is being reasonable here

[fireisredsir]

I also have played with scum!furtive before (but he doesn’t know it) and it’s not a lot to go on yet but he seems different here than in that game.

agreed, mostly. one of the early jokes pinged as slightly similar but he feels less like he's pressured to overexplain everything and is able to just vibe more. could just be going for a different style of play but seems slightly towny for now

[fireisredsir]

GL is right that i probably do also unvote there as scum, but idk if as scum i actually care to go back and check past games to get a baseline feel for how you play and in the process figure out who you are, since that was done with the intention of sorting whether your reaction was as scummy as it felt or typical for you (dann, here is an example of where doing that ended up being useful!)

if at all id probably do it before voting you in the first place to see if it would be dangerous to provoke you for a reaction in the way that i did (and i would have figured out that yes it would be)

[fireisredsir]

fire do you want to join this Roden wagon

im not sure if i trust you but i trust dann so sure

VOTE: Roden

[fireisredsir]

fwiw im not really a fan of the whole half-secret-alt and half-using-arguments-like "this person would townread me if they knew who i was"

i don't think you can have both and it's difficult to interact with

[fireisredsir]

GL did you have any thoughts on my response to you? ik going back and forth in walls is not going to be useful, but like, any reaction at all?

[fireisredsir]

i think it was done that way to avoid the 1v1 pain

[fireisredsir]

by changing it to a probabilistic argument you're retconning your post a bit ("if ari doesn't talk about reads, she is

more likely to be scum

" is a different statement - that isn't what you said in 44) and I still think you're making a logic error - just because someone doesn't do a thing that you think would make them scum or more likely to be scum, does not mean they are less likely to be scum!

i think you should probably be able to figure out that "congrats you're town" was not meant to be taken at face value

and im still pretty sure im right on the logic point but thats ok its not important

[fireisredsir]

now I'm worried that mafia could create a mafia UTR quite easily since there are 5 of them, and am slightly paranoid that's happening here.

i think the person still has to be towny for this to work, no? its not like 4 mafia being all "hey guys this person is super towny" will make everyone else agree. so i don't think this is really something to be especially worried about. if anything you can worry about how we're not very likely to get a d1 elimination on scum. scum definitely have a lot of control over that

[fireisredsir]

i think furtive can be town for being funny

he wasn't very funny as scum

maybe more that he seems relaxed here

[fireisredsir]

hmm ok there's 4 other scum we can wagon a different one

VOTE: KittyTacky

[fireisredsir]

hmm ok there's 4 other scum we can wagon a different one

VOTE: KittyTacky

Why is Kitty scum?

tbh i forgot that i was locktowning them for doing my captcha so idk maybe they're not

but besides that tho i don't really like how they have 9 posts and 1 (maybe 2) opinion(s). and the bit about donempire's scummy actions was weird

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Greeting

I did a meta dive and based off of that, I think he could be scum here.

probably yea

[fireisredsir]

Wow. I just came back. The current push on me is so utterly horrible that I'm not sure if I even want to address it. I play like a robot, scumread someone for tone from a scumread page and try to read the thread carefully to err my mistakes?

I bet my ass there is scum on it. There's five of them after all.

I guess I understand them though. Eliminating a mafia today would mean that town only needs two points to win, and that puts them in a horrible position. So they'd rather put their necks out for LHF like me, because then they'll just manipulate the pairings with low posters.

Not going to waste my time arguing with this shit push, let's get to work.

actually I also just noticed that this:

I consciously decided to ignore his pre-existing 4 posts when I joined the game.

is dissonant from this:

I am not sure why Roden is a leading wagon considering he has barely said anything. If it's a pressure wagon then fine. But he hasn't said much.

if you consciously ignored his posts, why did you feel the need to say you're not sure why he's a wagon? like I get possibly wanting to cut Roden some early game slack and not join the wagon, but you actually defended him here moreso than just ignore the situation. and if you were truly like "I'm not going to try to read anything into his posts at all", then you definitely should not have been questioning a wagon on him

You have just said that every justification I said in this game feels fake to you. If that's the case, then there is no point in me wasting my time talking to you. Feel free to vote me.

For the record, I think

GuiltyLion

is town. But I'm not fighting battles I can't win.

Come back if you actually want to talk, game solve and discuss, rather then find arguments to support a pre-existing thesis.

these posts are massive overreactions to reasonable points made and i don't think there's any real reason town greeting should be so dismissive of GL here

GL is like one of the most reasonable people on site and i think it is always a good idea to talk to him and try to work through his reads and get him on the right track if he's wrongfully scumreading you

nothing that greeting is saying here makes sense as a reaction to what is happening imo, just feels like extremely fake indignation to try to match the self-righteousness that town greeting often has

[fireisredsir]

these posts are massive overreactions to reasonable points made and i don't think there's any real reason town greeting should be so dismissive of GL here

GL is like one of the most reasonable people on site and i think it is always a good idea to talk to him and try to work through his reads and get him on the right track if he's wrongfully scumreading you

nothing that greeting is saying here makes sense as a reaction to what is happening imo, just feels like extremely fake indignation to try to match the self-righteousness that town greeting often has

Why do you think you have the right to judge whether my reactions are appropriate or not? I am not having this discussion.

this is a game of mafia lol

i have the right to judge whether you're scum or not

refusing to address any points made and shutting down any discussion about yourself while also accusing other people of being unwilling to work with you is very scummy

[fireisredsir]

You're calling GL 'reasonable'.......you're sure he's town then?

im ok with treating him as town for now, but no, im not sure

but my read isn't relevant here, from greeting's stated perspective, he thinks GL is town, so i don't think there's any reason for him to not want to work together. my point in calling GL reasonable is that there are some people where i think it would be understandable to not want to try to work with them in that situation. GL is not one of those people

[fireisredsir]

Ok that makes sense. Remind me why you're on Kitty? I haven't really seen anything to read into from them.

prob would be on greeting but i hadn't counted the votes. seems like there were already plenty

with kitty idk gut felt his content so far was a little scummy and wanted to see more from him

[fireisredsir]

Don't know why but I panic voted there seeing you vote.

ik you said you don't know why but can you uh... try to know why?

i don't really understand the concept of seeing someone vote a player and feeling panic that you need to vote there too so i am curious what was going through your head

[fireisredsir]

Chainsaw cause of vote on fireisred (association cue)?
Dannflor and Ari instantly voting this. Very good play from them and likely both town.

? ari voted before furtive

[fireisredsir]

I can't spell out everything I see in games. Sometimes I do, a lot I don't.
Sometimes I'm burnt out after playing for too long.
But I hope you believe me when I say I have my reasons.

i mean the main possible reason that has come to mind is that you are scum with greeting and panicked bc you didn't want him to be elimmed before you had a chance to get on the wagon.

so i hope you have a more convincing reason

i don't understand why town would feel panic there. what's there to panic about? what bad thing is going to happen if you don't vote?

[fireisredsir]

Chainsaw cause of vote on fireisred (association cue)?
Dannflor and Ari instantly voting this. Very good play from them and likely both town.

? ari voted before furtive

I wasn't implying that the order mattered.
But maybe you are for a good reason.

the order matters for that thought to make any sense

why is it good play and likely town for ari to vote furtive there if the only thing he has posted prior to her vote is "Human subject gang?"

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Vivax

[fireisredsir]

because i believe the thoughts you are saying are not real and are instead generated by a malevolent AI

[fireisredsir]

mafia cares about consistency because they have to put effort into faking it because it is something that comes naturally to most town who are just thinking their thoughts normally

holding two opposing thoughts in your brain in short succession is rare for most people

[fireisredsir]

Fireisred is peculiar.

thanks u too

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: kutiplz

[fireisredsir]

with 5 scum i feel like a lot of this game is probably maf just talking to each other and maybe thats why it feels weird

[fireisredsir]

i kinda feel like repeatedly wagoning low content slots until they post stuff to make sure that nobody exits d1 without like having posted significantly is actually probably the best way to make this setup solvable later

[fireisredsir]

kuti has 32 posts and i counted like, maybe 2 opinions total

hi kuti i would like to hear some more opinions plz

[fireisredsir]

the thing is that after d1 we will never be able to pressure anyone with votes ever again

so get it all out now

[fireisredsir]

vacation sounds nice :>

VOTE: KittyTacky

kuti, pretend my vote is still on you and consider yourself pressured plz thanks

[fireisredsir]

i think thats e-2 btw

[fireisredsir]

kuti has 32 posts and i counted like, maybe 2 opinions total

hi kuti i would like to hear some more opinions plz

If I remember correctly, you really like to base your reads off meta. I have played with

kutiplz

on MU and my impression is that they sound no different to what they did in the games I've played with them on that site.

ive looked at a few of their games and the tone is similar yes but the level of content is not

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: kutiplz

my heart wasn't really in this one anyway

[fireisredsir]

thanks for the opinions kuti, good enough for now

VOTE: bell

part of the reason my heart wasn't in the kittytacky wagon was bc i did not trust it to be all town. bell isn't town yet. i like the general strategy of "leave him alone and see if he becomes town later" but we don't really have that option since we can only pressure now

[fireisredsir]

gut feel that all of the leading wagons are not good directions tbh

[fireisredsir]

also scum has a ton of wiggle room in this situation so please later be careful about assumptions that people usually make like "oh scum wouldn't all pile on a wagon together" or "scum must be the ones pushing this counterwagon to scum" because they have 5 people. we need 7 to elim. to get an elim on scum without bussing we need 7/8 town people to agree. that's just not really ever gonna happen if scum doesn't want it to

so scum is free to just mostly do whatever they want and be as unconventional as possible with their votes in order to look unpaired with each other, bc they know that multiple of them will have to flip at some point

[fireisredsir]

could be vivax, idk this is a small thing but i really liked his last two posts

I do sus Radical Rat. It's just that they're leading quite hard on Vivax and it doesn't feel like bussing.

Both of these are true. I am pushing hard on Vivax,

and it isn't bussing

. That's because I'm convinced he's scum, and want to see the thread run red with Mafia blood... Or uh. CPU coolant fluid, I suppose.

lol
you sound like a mafia who's putting this (bolded) in for comedy value to themselves

VOTE: RadicalRat

meh

ok hear me out

to me that "meh" speaks volumes

it feels pure and honest. a reflection of true thought process. no interest in actually explaining that process for the sake of performance and yet it shines through anyway like a beacon of towniness. it's kinda self-doubt, it kinda undermines his own vote, it's kinda saying "maybe that's not a great reason but i want to vote here anyway"

and if vivax is scum his goal generally seems to be to just throw random thoughts into the thread for the sake of confusing everyone and making people think he's too scattered and random to be scum. so idk why scum with that strategy would suddenly go for the strategy of coming up with a thought trajectory to have but hiding it behind a single "meh"

i too have difficulty understanding how a lot of the thoughts that he's having are genuinely coming from a town brain. but this one feels real (or, i guess it's possible that they are actually scum together and that's why this "meh" hides more thought than it shows. that would be funny). and i think in the past personally i have found that "difficult to understand how town could think like this" is not a reliable scumtell

[fireisredsir]

i might be reading way too much into it lol idk

[fireisredsir]

im a very meh person so maybe i just relate

[fireisredsir]

hmmm

[fireisredsir]

there's currently two wagons at 5 each, 3 people elsewhere (me vivax loki)

there's 5 scum

loki is town, im town. at a minimum there's 4 scum across those two wagons. i doubt they're all on one. i think scum is happy with these two being the wagons for elimination

(pedit: now 6 on kitty, if I counted right)

[fireisredsir]

prob like 3 of [rr, kuti, kitty, roden] plus 2 of [bell, ari, GL]

if kitty is scum then scum want cred for flipping there and want to pivot that into a town leader position

flipping kitty here is not bad tho. i think it's more likely to be scum than vivax

[fireisredsir]

i think scum is happy with these two being the wagons for elimination

mmmm

why do you think "happy" rather than "making do"?

who would you say has been most influential in creating this situation where we have dueling Vivax/KittyTacky wagons?

I don't take too much issue with your overall point that scum are probably divided across the two wagons but I feel like a lot of people are just assuming 5 scum means scum control D1 elimination and that's just not always the case, especially if town is bloc-cing mostly effectively

it's more about a lack of action elsewhere imo. i don't think that they specifically chose these wagons to be the ones that would be the final two, but i think that they're content with keeping things as they are

like if there's scum split on the wagons then they could just... leave

nobody besides dann joined me on bell. if they didn't want these two to be the wagons (and if bell was town) then they easily could have shifted there, it was justified

[fireisredsir]

yeah closer to the latter, "content" would be a better word choice

[fireisredsir]

i guess i don't really feel like town is blocking successfully because i don't feel like either of the wagons are townblock-driven

[fireisredsir]

nobody besides dann joined me on bell.

ok actually i joined dann on bell. same deal

[fireisredsir]

i guess i don't really feel like town is blocking successfully because i don't feel like either of the wagons are townblock-driven

It’s very helpful in most games where scum are no more than 25-33% of the playerlist.

But with an 8-5 ratio, it’s extremely difficult to feel as confident as I usually would doing that.

8-5 ratio?

L + ratio + you fell off + didn't ask

[fireisredsir]

nobody besides dann joined me on bell.

ok actually i joined dann on bell. same deal

Bell can be a wolf. Feels limp.

i think he probably is, yes

[fireisredsir]

not really but i think that the people i didn't list in 898 are probably town

[fireisredsir]

im cool with that

i just wanted to get my opinions out bc i realized there's a decent chance i get picked for tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

donempire became greeting who then became vulture

[fireisredsir]

id be surprised if there's 4 on you but it's possible

[fireisredsir]

i think that even if kitty is scum then there's scum on that wagon

[fireisredsir]

i think that even if kitty is scum then there's scum on that wagon

That would mean you and Loki are both town and Vulture is the scum on my wagon

why vulture

[fireisredsir]

I think there is probably scum on KT wagon (regardless of KT alignment) but the people I think are best candidates for scum on it (namely Bell and posssssiiiibly one of Vulture/Vivax) look more like reluctant bussing votes rather than scum-pushing-for-a-miselim votes. I have opposite feelings about the Vivax wagon, it's not hard for me to imagine any of RR/kuti/KT/Roden votes there as scum hopping on a limbait townie

i think that this is a pretty reasonable view of things and is also p close to how i see things if i assume that you're town. im not exactly confident on that point but maybe that's a sign that i should be

[fireisredsir]

idk i always feel like there's more things that i want to see how people respond to

are we in a hurry

[fireisredsir]

i guess maybe it's better to vote kitty and not let it swing towards vivax or something

[fireisredsir]

alright fine fine

maybe it's not too late to get a flip before bedtime

VOTE: KittyTacky

[fireisredsir]

hm

this seems like basically the WIFOMiest choice of all possible options

[fireisredsir]

i think the simplest thing tho is that if dann was maf they would want him to stay alive to influence things

i don't even think getting a possible point out of it is worth that loss

[fireisredsir]

and if dann is town then they def would want to kill him

and maybe they have people they think they can associative with kuti so it's not the end of the world to sacrifice

[fireisredsir]

thats probably true, they would need a strong leader left alive for it to be worth the possibility of going down 0-2

[fireisredsir]

ok but like isn't it better to use him to get that one or two points than to use him just to hope that people decide to bet on the wrong side of the WIFOM

[fireisredsir]

its ok as long as we shoot the robot. they're not people

[fireisredsir]

flipping a maf d1 is actually a p huge deal, not just for the point, but bc it affects the numbers for the rest of the game

if we had flipped town d1 we would be at 6 town vs 4 maf, now we're 7v3. that's a huge difference in terms of the social control maf can have. town flip means that every day, the threshold for votes is equal to the number of town alive. maf only needs 1 town to incorrectly, and for every town that does, they have room for 1 more mafia to bus

instead we have one extra town voice and one fewer scum voice. and that effect will carry through in every future day as well

kinda makes me think it's less likely than i previously thought that maf would willingly bus d1 unless they just didn't think that far ahead

[fireisredsir]

universal townread (or under the radar, depending on who you ask)

[fireisredsir]

getting rid of dann would also be useful for maf if he had correct scumreads

which ig we'll find out after the flip

kitty/kuti/roden/bell/GL team, im watching you

[fireisredsir]

jk bussing like that probably just puts maf team in too bad of a spot, so i don't really think it's GL

Spoiler:

or do i

[fireisredsir]

well they did make a readlist here in 753. i do think they were overall lacking in content compared to their towngames tho

[fireisredsir]

Dann was also being extremely lamisty this early in the game. It was freaking rvs, nothing remotely scum indicative about my not commenting on that.

i don't agree here. i thought at the time that popping in without commenting on it was scummy as well. the whole point was that me and GL was one of the first big things that *wasn't* rvs, so treating it as if everything so far was rvs and not worth commenting on was strange from everyone who did

[fireisredsir]

huh? i don't think thats a TMI slip at all

maybe bc i had almost exactly the same reasoning/reaction. i was finding it funny as well bc loki's reaction seemed so unbelievable to me, and it felt like he was flailing under the slightest amount of pressure. it wouldn't have been funny if he was town, id feel bad for causing that kind of reaction. it's only a funny situation if he's scum. it's the same perspective

and then i took a look at some past games and figured out who he was and then it immediately made sense and was no longer funny

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Loki Dokie

Is anyone going to explain why I’m getting voted?

I hope people are watching the votes on me.

Dann expressed suspicion on Fire and GL and is now voting me.

Could this possibly be scum theatre?

Like it’s seriously weird that you’re voting me after sussing on Fire who’s now voting me.

Your naked vote on me may even be worse if possible.

@loki, from a perspective of thinking you were scum and not knowing who you were, i thought this post was p funny, because it looks like wild flailing and scum panicking, not understanding why they were caught, and i found that entertaining

once i knew who you were it no longer looked scummy to me and it wasn't funny anymore bc you have that kind of reaction to suspicion on you as town too

i don't think it's funny to intentionally rile up town and idk dann that well but i don't really get the impression that he would either

i imagine he had a similar reaction of amusement at the reaction except that he didn't figure out who you were until later

[fireisredsir]

thank you for sharing, vivax

[fireisredsir]

i think that people can live a lie. go through their whole life pretending to be something they're not

thats prob the biggest lie i can imagine, especially if you're lying to yourself about it as well

[fireisredsir]

uh anyway i still just kinda think maf was betting on the fact that enough people will wifom their way into thinking it's dann (it only takes 3/7 town to vote wrong for maf to take advantage) for it to be worth the risk of taking him out

i just have a really hard time believing that maf would willingly sacrifice him here and i think that overthinking in this setup is probably likely to be bad

[fireisredsir]

like imagining worst cases here

say dann is maf. we vote for kuti. okay, oops. we're 1-1 now, but maf lost a strong player who was widely townread. like... okay? im not too sad about that trade

say kuti is maf. we vote out dann. um, oops. now we're 1-1, maf was able to sneak a player out who hadn't done much, and also get rid of a strong town player who was widely townread, and did not get at all punished for that

[fireisredsir]

yes im aware of how the game works

but like, maf losing maf dann is a big loss to the maf team, imo. town losing town dann is a big loss to the town team, imo

whichever loss it is, it already happened. but its a bigger loss overall for town if we lose the point on top of losing dann. and it's not really that big of a loss overall for town if we lose the point but maf lose dann

i guess it's mitigating losses. maybe thats not a very convincing argument idk but i think it's valuable

[fireisredsir]

like imagining worst cases here

say dann is maf. we vote for kuti. okay, oops. we're 1-1 now, but maf lost a strong player who was widely townread. like... okay? im not too sad about that trade

say kuti is maf. we vote out dann. um, oops. now we're 1-1, maf was able to sneak a player out who hadn't done much, and also get rid of a strong town player who was widely townread, and did not get at all punished for that

I get this, but I don't really agree, I'm always just gonna take a punt on who I think it is.

yea i mean i also just think it's kuti. im not gonna vote kuti if i don't think it's kuti

thats more an argument for why i don't really have much interest in wifoming myself into voting dann

[fireisredsir]

it wasn't right before the flip tho. it was when wagons were tied 3-3 with kitty and vivax, and they expressed a weak townlean on kitty while finding a scumread on vivax and voting there

[fireisredsir]

i didn't really care to go back and forth on it bc i don't think im ever changing your mind on anything tbh

but my thoughts on it were that personally, yes i probably would wonder if the positions were reversed, and i would then probably go try to look for who you are myself bc i would be curious. but i would probably do that as either alignment, it isn't specific to me being town

but dann has said (multiple times even) that he doesn't really care as much about going back through people's past games and looking at them to get a meta feel for them. so i think he's probably just less interested in that sort of thing in general, and cares more about focusing on the current game

so i think it's believable that he wouldn't care much about me unvoting. and i don't think it makes him particularly more likely to be scum bc i think it mostly comes down to a personality thing. if he thought that he would do it as town, then he probably would be more likely to do it as scum in order to fit in and look like he was re-evaluating in a genuine way

the only thing that keeping his vote on you is going to do is make you think that he's scummy for doing it, and if he were scum, he would probably care about preventing that reaction from happening

[fireisredsir]

@Ari, you’re definitely wrong on Bell. There’s just no way Bell is scum here. You’re argument makes more sense if scum!Dann was trying to miselim town!Bell.

I know Bell!scum meta and this 100% ain’t it. Read Bell in Among Us where he’s as wooden af and tell me that these posts are in anyway similar.

very strong disagree

[fireisredsir]

fire being one of the most vocal dann supporters with logic thats surface level correct is also kind of strange to me

like the principles he's using are correct but they're correct in a way that would be correct even if Dann flips scum here;

which feels like thats his primary consideration rather than who is town/scum within the Dann/Kuti dichotomy


everything is about loss, strategy, and like how a scum team looks at resources rather than

who is actually scum

Rather than trying to win by voting out who is scum, its all about mitigating a possible loss that creates a narrative further down the line that feels somewhat like putting the cart before the horse.

if im picking who i think is more likely to be scum then it's kuti every time. i don't really care that strongly about going into why but maybe i should idk, maybe i will be able focus on this game more now that frenemies is over

the loss and resources thing was just something that i think is also relevant and maybe more interesting for people to hear than my reasons which im not that confident in anyway

im sleepy ill talk more tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

you also could just be right on dann/bell and i should sheep you until proven otherwise since you were right on kitty

tbh sheeping a townread is prob the best strategy here in terms of winning an individual point

[fireisredsir]

oh also my other thought was that like... scum are gonna be trying to predict the ways in which town are thinking, and choose the pairs based on that. i want to try to predict the ways in which scum would predict the ways that town would be thinking, and then think unpredictably

hope that makes sense :>

[fireisredsir]

ok rereading finally

dann:
- forgot that i kinda gut scumread his early posting. it felt forced, like he really wanted to establish himself in the game early on
- i think i started townreading when i felt like we had the same reaction to loki. pressuring on the people who didn't acknowledge me and GL also felt a little towny partly bc i thought there was probably a scum in that group. less sure on that now but still possible
- after that there was a while where i mostly just agreed with the directions he was looking. i thought the roden push was good. i still think the bell push was good
- one note of concern ig is it feels like if RR is scum he was chainsawing for them a lil bit
- voting kitty after vivax just got put at e-1 could come from scum wanting to make sure they're on the scum wagon before the town one gets pushed through, but he did also later encourage the kitty wagon to continue
- overall based on the flip we got and the reads i have, i feel like the pressure and action he took contributed to town wincon much more than scum. it's possible that scum decided he was their best shot at getting a point and they really desperately needed one, but idk, i still don't quite buy it

kuti:
- very little content early, but a lot of posting. this was what made me scumread them originally. it felt like they didn't really feel comfortable with coming up with opinions, and looking at their past town games i don't get that feeling at all
- when they do catch up and post a readslist, its at a kind of pivotal point in the game where the wagons are tied 3-3. they find a weak townlean on kitty and their strongest scumread is the counterwagon
- thats it. they don't really post again after that

[fireisredsir]

i think im just kinda not really interested in the possibility of letting scum get away with doing scummy things under the basis of "scum wouldn't put someone so obviously scummy up for elimination" bc i think it's equally (or maybe even more) believable that they would do that in the hopes that people wifom their way out of it

VOTE: kuti

maybe ill sheep someone and change votes depending on how the wagons look tomorrow, idk

[fireisredsir]

i mean if most of town is voting dann here then idk how you can argue that it wasn't a good option for giving them a chance of getting a point

[fireisredsir]

like i think its extremely predictable that at least 3/7 town would end up following that train of logic

[fireisredsir]

i cannot imagine a world where scum genuinely think that town is just going to without any question yeet the surface level scummier person

its a wifom pick exactly bc wifom is hard to predict and it's almost a coinflip. and if every town member individually just flips a coin for who to vote, then mafia get the point most of the time

i just don't think it's at all likely that they were making their choice based on the criteria that you seem to be using for what makes something an "even chance" or a "better option"

[fireisredsir]

i actually think that throwing away scum dann on a wifom pick is less likely for exactly that reason

a mafia team picking dann would be well aware that people will see the discrepancy between how townread each of the two candidates were and that will make them hesitate

if you're going to gamble on a coinflip then you might as well be gambling to win big

ig thats what i was really trying to get at with my thing earlier about mitigating losses. i just don't think it makes sense for scum to put up scum dann here on something that is mostly going to come down to which side of the wifom people land on. there's no reason to. they can keep dann in the game to be a reasonable town leader and just construct a different coinflip if thats the route they really want to take

[fireisredsir]

with 6 people currently either already voting dann or leaning towards voting dann (GL, Ari, Loki) and a lot of the more consensus townreads being in that group, it's actually kinda baffling to me that you can continue to unironically use the argument that a scumteam with kuti wouldn't put them up against dann bc that's not a good enough chance to win the point

like we have in front of us some pretty convincing experimental evidence showing that there is in fact a very good chance of winning the point there

[fireisredsir]

if two people who are both scummy are put up, then i actually would trust town more to correctly find the scum. i think people are decent at that

but if you put up someone scummy against someone towny, suddenly the scumhunting part of people's brains shut off and they start trying to wonder about *why* mafia chose these two people with such a wide disparity

and if i were making that gamble i would put my bet on enough town landing on the side of thinking that maf put up a strong scum player to try to win a point

[fireisredsir]

with 6 people currently either already voting dann or leaning towards voting dann (GL, Ari, Loki) and a lot of the more consensus townreads being in that group, it's actually kinda baffling to me that you can continue to unironically use the argument that a scumteam with kuti wouldn't put them up against dann bc that's not a good enough chance to win the point

like we have in front of us some pretty convincing experimental evidence showing that there is in fact a very good chance of winning the point there

like, again, are you seriously telling me scum went "who is our best chance to win a point with kuti? Dann? Yup, gotta be, everyone will WIFOM and vote him"

that's not how wolves tend to think

yes, or at least that they think it was a good enough chance for it to be worth trying because the reward for pulling it off successfully is huge

its basically the whole idea behind this setup i have no idea why you would expect they wouldn't think like that

[fireisredsir]

i mean its possible that im giving the mafia more credit than they deserve but idk i just don't really see it as likely that they would go for the surface level approach

[fireisredsir]

you're gonna feel stupid if you try to galaxybrain and you're wrong

extremely unrelateable tbh, but maybe i should have more of this fear

[fireisredsir]

the thing is tho that i don't even really think that voting dann here is that galaxy brain of a move

it's literally just level 1

level 0 would be completely ignoring the fact that mafia choose these targets, and just limming the scummy one

level 1 is giving some basic consideration to the fact that mafia chose these people and they chose them for a reason

i feel like its not that hard to predict that town would be mostly on level 1 and not on level 0??

[fireisredsir]

by the time we get to the final day everyone is gonna be on level 2000 it'll be so fun

[fireisredsir]

the thing is tho that i don't even really think that voting dann here is that galaxy brain of a move

it's literally just level 1

level 0 would be completely ignoring the fact that mafia choose these targets, and just limming the scummy one

level 1 is giving some basic consideration to the fact that mafia chose these people and they chose them for a reason

i feel like its not that hard to predict that town would be mostly on level 1 and not on level 0??

ok putting it this way makes me question myself a lot more, I get what you're saying

but end of the day if we assume mafia is tapped into everyone's reads, they've basically set this up as

"do you want to lim a townie looking person or a scummy looking person?", instead of "townie looking vs townie looking" or "scummy looking vs scummy looking"

and you're saying they bet that the majority of us will pick the townie looking person
and I'm saying that feels like too much of a gamble when losing this test means they have to run the table to win

Are you in agreement with me that this is a gamble? or do you think this is actually the best possible percentage play for mafia (assuming you're right and kuti is scum)?

if you agree w/ me that it's a gamble, then I think we're just disagreeing on whether mafia is likely to gamble or not. but sometimes it kinda feels like you believe this is actually the best choice for scum because of the weaponized WIFOM, whereas like a S/S choice doesn't really have a lot of WIFOM by comparison

I'm kinda reflecting about how I play scum - I think I avoid intentionally leveraging WIFOM because to me that feels scary and unpredictable and it's safer to try to just remove objective threats to winning. and I'm always afraid if I try to make WIFOM arguments it's gonna look tremendously scummy. so maybe this disagreement is also a deeper indication of differences in how we think about playing scum

yea, im saying that i think they could believe that they'd have a better chance of winning the prediction bet of where town will land on townie vs scummy than they would at, for example, putting up two scummy people and having people instead be more inclined to just scumhunt normally

it is def a gamble but i think that every choice is a gamble on some level? like you are always putting up a scum and there is always going to be a risk that you lose the point. i don't really see what makes this choice such an inherently more risky gamble

im not sure if its the best choice or not bc idk what the scumteam is. but it seems to me that it is at least a pretty good choice. and i don't really understand how a scumteam with dann could think that putting him in this test would be their best choice. they're making just as much of a gamble imo, they are well aware that they are putting a townread person against a scummy person and they're betting that town won't give in to the wifom. either way it's a gamble

my core point ig is that putting up a townread person vs a scummy person is throwing a huge *wink wink* at the town, like it's basically begging us to think about why scum would make that choice. and to me it makes sense to me that a team where kuti is maf would be begging people to think about why scum would make that choice. it makes not much sense to me that a team where dann is maf would, bc i think the obvious next step that people will make is "oh, they put dann up to win the point!"

[fireisredsir]

like what do you actually expect Scum!Dann to do in this game with a weak team ?

idk i think he'd be in the making reasonable arguments crowd, making arguments that help scum

like i think it's p likely here that we have reasonable town on both sides of the debate. i don't think that people are necessarily going to conclude that all the people who argued for eliminating town are scum. i think there's a lot of room for a townread player to influence things without getting caught for it

[fireisredsir]

Like seriously, in a normal game, is there anyone who was particularly interested in yeeting either of them d2? I think not.

i mean kuti prob would have been one of 2 people that id be most likely to vote starting d2 of a normal game here

[fireisredsir]

ari is p convincing

[fireisredsir]

however I still have a hangup in that let's say kuti is maf and Dann is town and scum wanted us to WIFOM ourselves into voting Dann

who is actually scum pushing us towards that, if anyone? it kinda feels like Bell/Rat are just sitting back and not really advocating for anything, so I could see them as kuti partners in a town!Dann world. Maybe one Vulture/Roden being the remaining scum? but Roden's D2 is a fairly audacious move if kuti is actually maf, especially if the plan is to actually sacrifice kuti and go down 2-0. It's a bit odd that Roden has decreased in presence as the day has gone on, kinda maybe feels like S-S with kuti where Roden wants to look good off their flip while not actually doing a ton to make it really happen

i will add tho that if GL and Ari and Loki are all town pushing for a vote on town Dann then scum literally can just sit back and watch

people will join you because you are the consensus townreads. you will feel more validated in your push bc the people you think are scum are on the other side. everyone will feel happier with a dann vote. it's a feedback loop. then Dann flips town and everyone is like oh no, there's no way all 3 maf just sat on kuti, right? and then people start paranoiaing that there must be scum in the widely townead people and boom its a win

[fireisredsir]

am i being confbiased again

i have a tendency to get confbiased after i yeet a scum on d1

im actually kind of tempted to just do the opposite thing here

idk i do think bell is scum but i think that he could be willing to push scum kuti bc he knows that the people who think he is scum will see that and vote the other person purely to not be on the same wagon as him lol

[fireisredsir]

i wonder if there's a way to make a different version of this setup where you like alternate between tests and standard yeets

it would be nice to be able to pressure people outside of whoever the mafia choose

[fireisredsir]

so scum bell is repelling us off the scum wagon by acting as a town repellent

thats so big brain though

i think the fact that he's not even really pretending to be town rn makes me think thats more likely but idk

i almost always assign bigger brains to scum than they actually usually are using

[fireisredsir]

Have you been reading my recent posts?

yes, was there anything you wanted a response to?

[fireisredsir]

ik but the point was that for most of the day you were

[fireisredsir]

at a minimum 2/4 scum do need to flip, and a third gets chosen. so most of them do still need to go through the gauntlet

[fireisredsir]

yes that is correct

in the scenario i was talking about, scum made the choice to sit back and watch much earlier, when you were pushing dann

[fireisredsir]

and yea like it could still be dann. i think ari made some good points. i still think i prefer kuti tho

if we miss i still think we learn a lot

[fireisredsir]

i do think that ari's case for kuti town is good

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: kutiplz

do you have any thoughts on anything that's been discussed lately?

[fireisredsir]

ouch

[fireisredsir]

just let me choose tbh

[fireisredsir]

jk don't, i don't want that pressure

[fireisredsir]

(but i am pretty sure i choose bell)

[fireisredsir]

part of the reason i thought bell was scum is that if he is town, he is an incredibly good pick for first pairing

as town he is someone who gets townier over time, the more he has a chance to post. he hadn't gotten to that point yet, and a lot of people thought he was maf. he would be probably the single person that i would most be looking towards choosing if i were maf here

leaving him alive runs the risk of him suddenly starting to town it up, and you lose an option you had. maybe maf just really wanted to go with their wifom plan, and ig you could argue that bell still hadn't become towny, so the same arguments apply to today. but eh, i kinda want to just go with my first instinct here

i think maf are hoping that bell being on both of the scum wagons (and early on both) is enough to sway people

[fireisredsir]

i don't think ive ever said i townread GL

[fireisredsir]

i don't think ive ever said i townread GL

Why don’t you?

maybe i do

but ive never said that i do

do i?

who knows

[fireisredsir]

i don't really think its vulture but idk i don't think im great at reading them

[fireisredsir]

just let me choose tbh

I am ready to be carried

no can do, i shouldn't try to predict what the scumteam is doing

[fireisredsir]

ill prob reread furtive tn just to see if i have any doubts there but i don't think i will

[fireisredsir]

ok yea i reread some old furtive games and i think he just has a totally different energy when he's maf vs when he's town. as maf he's more stiff, town he's relaxed and lets his thoughts flow freely, and just feels comfortable interacting with people. here he has way more of that town feel. don't see any reason to doubt this really since bell was p scummy

always possible that he's just improved his game a lot but i don't feel particularly inclined to bet on that

VOTE: Bell

e-2

[fireisredsir]

which games did you read?

viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89712 town
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89613 scum
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=89296 scum
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=89584 town

[fireisredsir]

GL just said it but reminder that there's only one scum left talking now

[fireisredsir]

also this is off topic but yk the little symbol that shows on the thread when its night? i had never looked at it closely enough to see that its a moon

i thought it was an oreo

idk why i just accepted that as normal and never questioned it

[fireisredsir]

Guess it was too much to hope that we actually had a viable solve, huh?

Gut says Vulture here, but I'll be running back through ISOs later.

um who is we???

[fireisredsir]

ok and what led you to believe that remaining town had a consensus solve? and what made that no longer viable?

[fireisredsir]

can you point out what posts from others made you think that people were leaning that way?

[fireisredsir]

can you point out what posts from others made you think that people were leaning that way?

Now may I ask what relevancy this exercise had?

its relevant to whether that was a real thought that you had or if you were just trying to align yourself with loki

[fireisredsir]

also this is off topic but yk the little symbol that shows on the thread when its night? i had never looked at it closely enough to see that its a moon

i thought it was an oreo

idk why i just accepted that as normal and never questioned it

Obvious lie ik who you are but you‘re masking up
Scary at this game and intriguing

i am me, and whoever you think i am is probably not me

i do aspire to someday be both of those descriptors but i don't think i am yet

[fireisredsir]

can you point out what posts from others made you think that people were leaning that way?

Now may I ask what relevancy this exercise had?

its relevant to whether that was a real thought that you had or if you were just trying to align yourself with loki

i also just wanted to prod at it a lil bit bc that wasn't the reaction i had at all, since my solve has been the same since d1 and nothing has happened to change it, including this test

so i was interested in why you seemed to think that thought was one that would be shared by the town

[fireisredsir]

also I started re-ISOing Greeting and I'm remembering how much I didn't like their initial play and reads lol

the tunnel on Rat was just so contrived, I could see it as either distancing or pushing a miselim but maaaan I did not like that read justification

i just did the same lol

[fireisredsir]

Okay, well, I think

KittyTacky

is more likely town than scum.

Posts 368, 373 are made by town and exhibit a towny mindset. Plus this registers in my mind as something

KittyTacky

would say. So yeah, he's out of the PoE for Day 1.

this post was also really bad

i thought i remembered someone calling it out but idr who

[fireisredsir]

im half delirant rn cuz health, but you are usually paler
and I don‘t think that’s something worth aspiring to said from someone born that way
unless you think self isolation cuz too alien is fun

hope u feel better

i wouldn't call it fun, necessarily, but it is at least comfortable

[fireisredsir]

I honestly think

furtiveglance

reacted the way he did in 570, 581 and 654, because he is scum. A real townie has

no reason

to be annoyed about what happened. The most logical thing to do for a town-aligned player is to accept it and look elsewhere. And that's what almost everyone did. Or, if one still thinks that I'm scum, look into my ISO and build a better, more convincing case.

Furtiveglance

did not want to let it go.

This is my best read for Day 1. It's unfortunate that it surfaced like this and I honestly feel bad that it surfaced this way, but it looks like hard proof to me. I feel like if I choose any other player or build any other case it will still be a second-best choice.

at the time I thought this was a fairly townie read to have

both having the general thought of "scum would be annoyed that I towntold" and the depiction of feeling guilty that they believe they caught scum this way, it felt real to me

my one hang up now is that I realized in 589 Greeting had previously said they "understand why furtive is annoyed with this", which seems fairly massively contradictory to the post quoted above

I'm not sure if I'm reaching to find more reasons to SR Greeting or if this is actually an indicative point

LOL

i mean thats pretty bad

[fireisredsir]

i will say i am a little confused at some minor points around which town scum choose for the tests so far (mostly the previous two days?) and it feels fairly suboptimal and that always worries me a little bit

but we can talk about those thoughts tomorrow if necessary, hopefully we can just get it right today and not worry about it

[fireisredsir]

he was town in the referenced game

[fireisredsir]

i was in the scumgame. what about it?

[fireisredsir]

i don't think there's a threat there at all tho? can you explain what you mean by that? what is she trying to goad you into doing?

[fireisredsir]

The "I kind of want to see if Radical Rat will really vote for Vulture" is accusing me of being Vulture's partner, and daring me to vote them anyway, implying that she doesn't think I'll do it, and refusing to do so will make me look worse.

why would that be a threat to you if you're town?

[fireisredsir]

i was in the scumgame. what about it?

Oh well I thought it might explain some things about the tests but maybe not.

no i don't think vulture is very relevant to what i was talking about

[fireisredsir]

Oh what did you mean then? but if you feel it would be better to not discuss until then fine, I guess.

yea i don't think its relevant to the current choice we're making

[fireisredsir]

vote count 1.11

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-08-11 09:45:00).

yeet

KittyTacky [6]:

Bell, Aristeia, GuiltyLion, Dannflor, Vulture, Vivax

Vivax [5]:

Radical Rat, furtiveglance, kutiplz, KittyTacky, Roden

Bell [1]:

fireisredsir

not voting [1]:

Loki Dokie

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

Most based votecount I found

VOTE: Roden

Because either you or fire were not hammering KT
While I've had 2 flipped scum on me at minimum
And KT had one flipped on them

So either you argue both wagons were scum, or that you and fire are always a t/m combo and try to reach Rodens alignment from there

Knowing I'm town, I highly doubt Vulture wouldn't pile on me as scum there, for me it's easier to reach the conclusion that Roden is the one we lim

um you are aware that i literally did hammer like 20 posts later, right?

i think all of the scum were already on the wagons at this point and i don't think there's really much reason to doubt that

[fireisredsir]

loki im p sure this is town vivax. probably try not to let anything he says influence your votes too much

[fireisredsir]

4 scum on my wagon except Bell then?
It‘s possible tbh, but calling Loki mafia is kinda fun for the hard Omgus every time anyway

only if it's RR/roden. which is possible but not at all the only option

[fireisredsir]

this setup is not a normal game tho and scum are very aware about how people will be heavily analyzing the d1 vcs for associations and wagonomics considering multiple scum have to flip guaranteed

[fireisredsir]

also scum has a ton of wiggle room in this situation so please later be careful about assumptions that people usually make like "oh scum wouldn't all pile on a wagon together" or "scum must be the ones pushing this counterwagon to scum" because they have 5 people. we need 7 to elim. to get an elim on scum without bussing we need 7/8 town people to agree. that's just not really ever gonna happen if scum doesn't want it to

so scum is free to just mostly do whatever they want and be as unconventional as possible with their votes in order to look unpaired with each other, bc they know that multiple of them will have to flip at some point

[fireisredsir]

also for full disclosure when i typed that d1 i was kinda thinking about the possibility that bell, GL, and ari could have just decided to all group as 3 and hard bus kitty lol

that's obviously not what happened since at least one of GL/ari is town tho

i also at the time didn't fully realize how damaging to scum it would be to have a scum death d1. i think that GL or ari probably would as scum? but id also think vulture would so idk. ig as a recent replace in they might not have fully thought through the setup

[fireisredsir]

ig it's fair that if RR is scum then scumteam didn't really have much more they could do about kitty going down

[fireisredsir]

not to be too self-centered but i kinda feel like i was expected to push for a roden vote here, since in thread so far i had been implying a roden scumread and a vulture townread (which was mostly true, but i wasn't very confident on either)

and i probably have the most ability rn to push for the vote that i want due to vote record so far

which on the surface makes me want to vote vulture. but i do want to look at things a bit deeper to see how confident i feel in that

it seems like most people are leaning vulture but like... 5 of us are town anyway so i don't think thats really a bad sign? and i don't think thats something that scum would have been able to predict going in to this test

[fireisredsir]

ok i read roden's iso and its actually p towny imo idr why i scumread there originally

[fireisredsir]

no it was suspicion on FG bc roden thought it was a made up read bc it didn't really look like a pocket

don't think it was really abt bell at all

[fireisredsir]

Wow. I just came back. The current push on me is so utterly horrible that I'm not sure if I even want to address it. I play like a robot, scumread someone for tone from a scumread page and try to read the thread carefully to err my mistakes?

I bet my ass there is scum on it. There's five of them after all.

I guess I understand them though. Eliminating a mafia today would mean that town only needs two points to win, and that puts them in a horrible position. So they'd rather put their necks out for LHF like me, because then they'll just manipulate the pairings with low posters.

Not going to waste my time arguing with this shit push, let's get to work.

This reads so genuine tho :/

what

there are a couple lines from greeting in other posts that feel genuine but this is one of the least genuine sounding posts ive ever read

why would he call himself LHF

why does he think that mafia is the one leading this push on him but he has no interest in arguing with them or engaging with the wagon on him at all or sorting out who is mafia on it

[fireisredsir]

paranoid/self-doubt part of me is worried it's giving me shades of kuti again

i think the difference is that i don't think scum would have been able to predict which direction town would go here. it's not an obvtown vs a scummy slot like kuti vs dann. i would say even that prior to this daystart, the town in general were leaning more towards roden being scummier of the two

i do kinda townread vulture's posts which is still making me hesitant, but i have wrongly townread them in the past, so eh

[fireisredsir]

will read some things again just to be sure it's what i want, but i don't think there's much point in waiting, will prob vote tonight

[fireisredsir]

a big thing for me is that like... i feel like me, loki, GL, and ari all reached the conclusion of it being vulture relatively independently with somewhat but not entirely overlapping thought processes

and at least 3 of us are town. most likely world is all 4 are

and it's not like one person was strongarming this or doing a huge amount of casing or convincing others

i think all of that is a good sign that this is right

even if it's not tho we have an uninterrupted 4 town 0 maf last day to discuss the final solve and i think that's incredibly doable here

[fireisredsir]

alr ive read enough im satisfied

let's do it

VOTE: Vulture

[fireisredsir]

reread overnight and had it at, from town to scum,

loki > vivax > ari > GL > RR

and have been p sure it's just RR for a long time now. so what would their options be? i don't think there's any way they could get away with picking loki. picking vivax is a throw if anyone looks at d1. its hard for me to know what other people would think but im pretty sure ari and GL at least would fight for me as town if i was put up there. so i think the main options really were ari or GL. both are also strong leaders, especially as conftown, likely to just insist on voting RR, so removing that voice is p valuable

so i don't think it's that surprising that RR would choose ari. unfortunately i don't think i can 100% clear ari bc i think her play after d1 is p close to how she would probably play this as scum. but i really think her d1 is not scummy, especially after the roden flip, i think there's several places where she looks v unaligned with roden

meanwhile there's literally nothing clearing for RR, everything that they've done has fit with a scum agenda, especially now knowing the full rest of the team

[fireisredsir]

also idk what you two are talking about or why reads on each other are relevant, we're all town here

[fireisredsir]

wish i had just stuck with the solve and gotten it right yesterday but oh well

[fireisredsir]

prob like 3 of [rr, kuti, kitty, roden] plus 2 of [bell, ari, GL]

if kitty is scum then scum want cred for flipping there and want to pivot that into a town leader position

flipping kitty here is not bad tho. i think it's more likely to be scum than vivax

I think there is probably scum on KT wagon (regardless of KT alignment) but the people I think are best candidates for scum on it (namely Bell and posssssiiiibly one of Vulture/Vivax) look more like reluctant bussing votes rather than scum-pushing-for-a-miselim votes. I have opposite feelings about the Vivax wagon, it's not hard for me to imagine any of RR/kuti/KT/Roden votes there as scum hopping on a limbait townie

i think that this is a pretty reasonable view of things and is also p close to how i see things if i assume that you're town. im not exactly confident on that point but maybe that's a sign that i should be

i also kinda think that if ari is scum, then my solve here (and subsequent post where i hint at leaning town on GL) would make her want me dead over dann? but id also think that the team with RR would want GL dead over dann due to him also having a correct poe in the quoted post, so idk. ig if they felt like they were putting up kuti/bell/roden first, then dann had more direct pressure on those three

then again dann was the one who suggested that kitty was being actively sacrificed by scum, so... hm. maybe it's not surprising that he would be chosen by ari

[fireisredsir]

What game were we both in where I was scum? Or is that just a general read?

in the coalition game you were significantly more townie when pressured. Coalition Micro

similarly in Fusion Upick

when you're scum you tend to kind of don't have that kind of edge/angry tone in your voice.

You don't have the same kind of edge when defending yourself and it feels like you're not quite really here and more importantly you don't feel like you want to be here.

SCP
Radio Buzz


I understand from your last completed mini normal[2276] you were fustrated over being nightkilled on n1 and perhaps not wanting to be nightkilled would be a valid explanation for maybe not being as townie as you have been in the past but this game is not really that sort of game.

in this game, scum can't just shoot the towniest townies - it would be quite suicidal of them to do so because it would make the 1v1s quite lopsided, they have to actually shoot in the murky middle so to speak, as a result you should be trying to be as townie as possible but it doesn't feel like you're enthusiastic about this game at all.

I don't understand the Roden wagon. He's got three posts, and none of them strike me as particularly scummy.

Yeah same. Roden is very null to me.

I don't understand how you can sus the loki voters and also be null on roden

this feels like a contradiction to me.

this especially is what makes me think town ari. right before this she's pressuring bell a bit (not necessarily clearing, bc getting bell to talk more is probably a goal a bell scumpartner would have), and then she turns on roden, going in depth into accurate meta differences between his scum on townplay. i don't think she's making this up. and i think she tends to believe that people have difficulty changing their meta, so i don't think she would call this out and pile pressure on roden, bc if she believes that roden is sortable under pressure, then she is making her scum partner more visible

immediately after, she then pivots to kitty, and also draws attention specifically to the kitty/roden connection. all of this just actively hurts the scumteam. if she's scum, she knows that she will almost certainly be the final one left. she knows that getting this cred d1 isn't likely to last long enough to clear her on the final day, and is just going to put her team in a bad position

if ari wants to hard bus d1, which is the required assumption for her to be scum here, i think she just commits to one of them and drives it through. continuing to poke around and solve elsewhere, sorting other players, finding correct connections, is not worth the relatively minor amount that it makes her look good

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Roden

I think KittyTacky is a better vote tbh Bell

VOTE: Kitty

What caused this switch?

Yeah I saw that. What made you decide on Kitty over me? There's no progression, you just switched over and had no response to the answer I gave you.

668

Also what caused you to join the first Done/Greeting wagon but avoid the second one?

547


I think the game would be significantly less aggravating for both of us if you actually read what I post instead of making me explain it to you again.

???

Wtf is this random lash out for

I just wanted to know if there was something more to it

this also just felt unaligned to me

[fireisredsir]

and

ari scum knows that she's going to have to get rid of bell at some point

she probably also expects that he's going to lose the test

she knew i would vote bell over furtive and willingly sheeped me on that day

so if she's just going to let bell die with no resistance, why put him up against furtive? furtive felt like someone that scum put up bc they thought they had a chance at elimming there

[fireisredsir]

but there were a few bits of Rats play yesterday that felt kinda townie to me if Roden was scum? like a lot of my feeling on them was they were trying to defend Greeting/Vulture and push Roden for somewhat contrived reasons, yet turns out they were right

i don't think there's really any downside to doing this as scum? at start of day they were leaning vulture. ari and you and me all clearly thought rat was scum, and also were leaning vulture. ari even directly called out that she was curious if rat would continue voting vulture.

so rat switched to roden. now there's town voting vulture, and they see scum voting the counter. that's probably actually the best play they could have made in terms of ensuring that nobody starts to doubt why everyone is okay with voting vulture

[fireisredsir]

the way I think about the scum team win condition is;

they all have to get through the gauntlet

eventually

like regardless of what the scum team is - the way they win the game is to get the town to flip the other person - which more or less means the scum players have to each pass through the gauntlet unless they win early, and it means the scum team necessarily must be revealed over time - similar to perpetual mylo except the scum have some extra agency in terms of getting to pick the gladiate.

The best way for the scum to do this is to set up associative pushes that look good on D1 so that as they are flipped, one flip begets another.

Like let's say someone like Bell who is pretty bad at scum[no offense Bell] is on the scum team.

The scum team would necessarily see Bell as somewhat of a liability, he basically is unable to replicate his town!meta when he's scum, he's just kind of a sitting duck.

So the best way to cash that liability into something good for the scum team is to push him D1, cash him in for towncred early - Bell even had the early vote on Kitty to establish distancing that way so that if Bell goes down Kitty gets somewhat reflected Towncred.

It feels like the whole bus Bell for Cred plan didn't work out for Dann because Bell wasn't as obvscum as people required for him to actually go down and eventually kitty became more or less inevitable.

Once Kitty went down and scored a point for town, the calculus regarding Bell kind of changes - it's not really viable to bus him at that point because going down 2-0 is basically a death sentence, so the scum have to get him through the gauntlet

somehow

.

There's two ways Bell/Dann!scum can go as a team.

Bell first and then Dann

or Dann first and then Bell.


It feels incredibly hard for Bell -> Dann to work out for the scum because it would look very strange for Dann to suddenly flip his read of Bell on a dime, can he get away with readflipping, getting Bell home and then escape intact himself? I think that's very tricky for him to do. Remember he has to be able to navigate that readflip without anything from Bell

and

survive with enough towncred to get himself out safely.

Otherwise he's stuck double-bussing and playing from 0-2 down which is kind of difficult even against a town that's flipping coins atp.

Dann flipping first however would generate towncred for Bell because it creates distance since Dann was trying to yeet Bell on D1. It's a much cleaner transition for the scum team and I think it just makes sense strategically as a play than the other way around.

Now in the Town!Dann Scum!Bell world; you'd have Bell deciding to hardbus Kitty d1, and then hardbus Kuti d2 and it feels super ~throwy~ ? like the play is so bad for scum I just can't see scum Bell deciding to play that way.

i went back to find this post thinking that it was the one thing that made me wary about ari (and at the time, it did, i felt like one of you or ari could easily be scum pushing back against the kuti choice from a strongly townread position), but looking at it now, i just kinda believe it?

like she is so deeply entrenched in the dann/bell mindset here. ive seen town ari do this a lot. it's probably not impossible to fake but idk, i buy it. i think as scum she would be more aware of the fact that this world that she is proposing is actually wrong, and would struggle to project the confidence of being in that mindset

[fireisredsir]

it just feels like kuti's stereotypical surface level LHF being set up to get an easy point and I kind of think scum

need

a win now.

If anything I agree with Fire's take that scum have every incentive to lob wifom balls with Scummy Scum paired with Townie Townie in order to trick us but I think they throw a fastball down the middle first to set up the wifom later.[yes baseball analogy I am a geek]

i think this bit is mildly scummy but eh it isn't enough to outweigh the rest for me

[fireisredsir]

really my biggest doubt is that i question why RR picked ari over GL. i think there's more that imo clears ari here and i would have been at least tempted to vote GL over RR, tbh

i was hoping they would pick vivax cause that would be an easy vote

[fireisredsir]

oh i forgot that RR had pivoted into suspecting ari yesterday. maybe that could contribute to them wanting to pick her for the test, if they thought that she was a viable place to push

[fireisredsir]

really my biggest doubt is that i question why RR picked ari over GL. i think there's more that imo clears ari here and i would have been at least tempted to vote GL over RR, tbh

i was hoping they would pick vivax cause that would be an easy vote

Who would pick, is the question?
Isn't RR supposed to be the last on their team?

yes, final scum is RR or ari. either RR picked ari, or ari picked RR

[fireisredsir]

The "I kind of want to see if Radical Rat will really vote for Vulture" is accusing me of being Vulture's partner, and daring me to vote them anyway, implying that she doesn't think I'll do it, and refusing to do so will make me look worse.

why would that be a threat to you if you're town?

Because as Town I still don't want to be scumread. Especially if we're wrong today, score's 2-2, and I wind up in the test. Trying to bait me into a vote this early, while also setting the stage to shade me later if I change my mind, is intended to set that up.

yea this is just trying to set up the narrative that ari is scum planning to choose them as a miselim

i don't really think this reaction makes sense as a town thought process here

[fireisredsir]

it feels way too forced