Mini Normal 2277 - Frog Images (Game Over)


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Post Post #1450 (ISO) » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:06 pm

Post by KittyTacky »

In post 1445, T3 wrote:
In post 1437, KittyTacky wrote:
In post 1406, T3 wrote:
In post 1400, redcardinal wrote:
In post 1398, T3 wrote:Like the way I see 1380 right now is that you’re saying that scum!you would have known scum!Mala wasn’t mason?
scum!me would have known that there were no mafia prs that could have made gamma show up as vanilla
But what if it’s a town PR that makes Gamma show up as vanilla? Or a thing with Mala’s role?
No such PR in normal games.

Redcardinal's solve makes sense.
VOTE: Klick
1. I know there is no such PR in normal games, I was questioning why redcardinal didn’t consider a town PR to cause Gamma to flip VT.

2. VOTE: KT
This is just bad opportunism.
1. I don't understand, why would RC question such a thing when it
can't
happen?
2. Sheeping someone is opportunism, k.

Re: schadd_
Yeah I thought RC was pretty scummy during the night but now I don't think so. The Klick case made sense to me.
If u dont elim me today, you are Minecrafters
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When i open this game, and starting read, i immediatly close it because i starting strongly consider self last townie alive and others are just jesters.
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Post Post #1451 (ISO) » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:35 pm

Post by schadd_ »

it seems i've established something we already knew which is that i exude a lethal concentration of thread poison. i cant help it. i was kinda waiting for people to respond before doing more reads talk. let me make things worse by farting around with some more mech stuff (pedit i see kitty showed up)
In post 1392, redcardinal wrote:if schadd and I are scum, kt is town which means you're scumreading the two people with partial clears from a roleblocker, meaning kt would have had to hit a 50/50 miss twice in a row for us both to be scum.
so, weirdly i'll say that i don't think this works out to anything. first of all i have the vanilla result on me, which means that i can only (really) be mafia if the third member doesn't have an exclusive role they'd use night 1 (or if kt is mafia). and if there's like a multitasking role i think you would still usually want to have the goon do the kill. so to begin with, me + redcardnal team would require that either of us can freely do the kill n1. i think that you'd probably have the person on the galron wagon do the kill. night 2, redcardinal seemed to be more suspected and also i already got blocked once which i think would be a sign that i'm like home free to do the kill. anyway this is all to say i don't see that team being ruled out. Lol. maybe the more relevant piece is that i don't think the redcardinal result is allll that informative. theres another thing which is that you can have like a 1-shot scum role that frees up the kill slot for n2 (although vice versa there's like novice roles and whatever. idk i guess there's not really anything to say there ok ba ba ba ba whatever)

anyway the fact that klick doesn't seem to have considered that is of course noted

another aside is that if kitty is scum, he seemed perfectly happy to let eiralox survive day 2, which to me is a sign that he is indeed a roleblocker in that case. i kind of think that in turn would be a sign that it's hard for him to be partners with me (he wouldn't be able to target me with it, and true-claiming the role but fake claiming the target seems like the worst of both worlds, even if it's convenient to have that semi-inno on a partner).
In post 1399, redcardinal wrote:eiralox returning vanilla on schadd is a further indicator that schadd is town bc mafia likely have prs beyond just an informed
i think this is marginally true but not necessarily. the number of goons in normal games lately has been close to 1 on average, people like to gussy up scumteams with a few stinky little things. and then with galron flipped as the proverbial donkey revealed behind door 1, the remaining mafia have ummm approximately 1 goon left out of 2 (?). and then probably something like half of currently alive townies are vanilla as well. so the priors dont really tilt in any direction
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Post Post #1452 (ISO) » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:37 pm

Post by schadd_ »

In post 1450, KittyTacky wrote:1. I don't understand, why would RC question such a thing when it can't happen?
2. Sheeping someone is opportunism, k.

Re: schadd_
Yeah I thought RC was pretty scummy during the night but now I don't think so. The Klick case made sense to me.
you went from townreading her by the end of day 2, to scumreading her overnight, then landing on a case she made day 3 and circling back to townreading her. is there anything else you can point to that explains these changes
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Post Post #1453 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 12:12 am

Post by Seanzie »

In post 1452, schadd_ wrote:
In post 1450, KittyTacky wrote:1. I don't understand, why would RC question such a thing when it can't happen?
2. Sheeping someone is opportunism, k.

Re: schadd_
Yeah I thought RC was pretty scummy during the night but now I don't think so. The Klick case made sense to me.
you went from townreading her by the end of day 2, to scumreading her overnight, then landing on a case she made day 3 and circling back to townreading her. is there anything else you can point to that explains these changes
These are not the scum you're looking for.

Out of Mala/Klick/Haschel, who do you think is most likely scum and who is most likely town?
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Post Post #1454 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 12:43 am

Post by Ausuka »

Image

Votecount 3.2
Klick (3)
- redcardinal, Seanzie, KittyTacky
KittyTacky (1)
- T3
redcardinal (1)
- Klick

Not Voting (4)
- Enchant, Haschel Cedricson, Malakittens, schadd_

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to decide an elimination. Deadline is in (expired on 2022-08-17 16:58:42).


Mod notesPlease let me know if you notice any errors!
No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.
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Post Post #1455 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:55 am

Post by KittyTacky »

In post 1452, schadd_ wrote:
In post 1450, KittyTacky wrote:1. I don't understand, why would RC question such a thing when it can't happen?
2. Sheeping someone is opportunism, k.

Re: schadd_
Yeah I thought RC was pretty scummy during the night but now I don't think so. The Klick case made sense to me.
you went from townreading her by the end of day 2, to scumreading her overnight, then landing on a case she made day 3 and circling back to townreading her. is there anything else you can point to that explains these changes
She's hard to read for me. I have been re-reading the game every night and I honestly was unsure what to make of her. Her Klick case pinged town for me tho.
If u dont elim me today, you are Minecrafters
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When i open this game, and starting read, i immediatly close it because i starting strongly consider self last townie alive and others are just jesters.
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Post Post #1456 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 1:46 pm

Post by Malakittens »

Is vote klick
But I also know that enchant will insta hammer

So
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #1457 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:03 pm

Post by Enchant »

You know me so well.

But question is.

If you think Klick is mafia.

Why don't you want see hammer?
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Post Post #1458 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:11 pm

Post by T3 »

What if I don’t think Klick is mafia
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Post Post #1459 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:12 pm

Post by T3 »

But I’m also really bored
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Post Post #1460 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:13 pm

Post by Malakittens »

In post 1459, T3 wrote:But I’m also really bored
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #1461 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:19 pm

Post by T3 »

What doesn’t sit right is KT sheeting redcardinal
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Post Post #1462 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:21 pm

Post by Enchant »

Why?
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Post Post #1463 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:05 pm

Post by Seanzie »

In post 1461, T3 wrote:What doesn’t sit right is KT sheeting redcardinal
What does "sheeting" mean?
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Post Post #1464 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 4:22 pm

Post by redcardinal »

In post 1461, T3 wrote:What doesn’t sit right is KT sheeting redcardinal
kt and I are on the same page today
oh snap
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Post Post #1465 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 5:19 pm

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Typing up a big thing; please do not hammer anybody.
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Post Post #1466 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:04 pm

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

There have been two eliminations so far, and we can make a few assumptions about what the scumteam wanted:
1) In general, the Galron elimination was not what they wanted;
2) In general, the Eiralox elimination was what they wanted.
Obviously bussing/"deepwolving" exists so this isn't foolproof, but I wouldn't be surprised if the remaining scum had at least one person taking these stances. So I've dived back and looked at how everybody felt about those players as their wagons were happening. Before you ask, the one from Schadd is more detailed and has quotes because that's the one I did first.

redcardinal
GALRON: Third on Galronwagon (although unvotes later and then rejoins later), is suspicious of me and Galron together, is convinced Galron is scum and focuses on finding partners.
EIRALOX: Doesn't start push on Eira but likes it, debates between KT and Eira, continues to actively look for partners.

schadd:
GALRON:Floats the idea that Galron is "town punishing everybody for voting for a low content slot" but doesn't press. Says he thinks Galron is scum, does not vote for him.
EIRALOX: Votes on D2, lots of shade with minor reasoning given at first - "i think there's a lot missing from your reads, especially those on me, which seems like it could be motivated by a desire to leave yourself options based on what i do / favor statements that are argumentatively convenient. i also can't help but notice you simply start to play the game once you're a top wagon and the competing one claimed pr"
Schadd wrote:there's two things about casing eiralox for me here. the first is that i'm just a person trying to make deductions here and i have an unavoidably huge chance of being wrong regardless of how convinced i am (which i kind of am). this means that i have to confront this chance that i somehow convince people to go with eiralox today, it turns out that they've been doing all this stuff while town, and then i have to play maybe the most grueling d3 of my life, in which everything i write here becomes fuel for not only the obvious eager wolves but also townies that wanna let the outcome of the game be someone else's fault. that day almost surely ends in me getting executed but i still have a responsibility to play it out, which i will hate doing so much its unreal
Foreshadowing on purpose? Later starts to tie Eiralox to Galron.

Seanzie
GALRON: Starts things off with RVS vote, later puts Galron at L-1, believes claim, characterizes Galron's play as more null than town, puts Galron at L-1 again.
EIRALOX: Doesn't mention much on D2 until Klick replaces in. Starts pressuring Eira in response to Eira's statements about him, supports Schaddwagon but thinks one of KT/Eiralox needs to go, pushes to end day because the town is going in circles.

Enchant
GALRON: No mention at all.
EIRALOX: Sees as town, tries to shift wagon to me albeit half-heartedly. Finally hammers after peer pressure from other players.

Malakittens
GALRON: Early vote, no reasoning. Galron makes single post saying Mala and Kitty aren't being objective.
EIRALOX: Hardly any mentions at all.

KittyTacky
GALRON: Sheeps Mala, suggests RC is chainsaw defending Galron, never lets up.
EIRALOX: Does not mention on Day 1. Votes/Unvotes due to trolly reads list from Eira. Suddenly starts casting suspicion of Eira, no details.

Kirigiri/Klick
GALRON: Actively tries to derail Galronwagon.
EIRALOX: "Doesn't have a problem with" Eiralox wagon but wants to wait to commit. Lists Eira at the very top of his Null rankings. Says RC is scum but doesn't lay out a case until the next day.

T3
GALRON: Early suspicion, ties Galron to KT as possible S/S pair, has opportunity to slow down Galron wagon and does not take it. Hammers after meta dive.
EIRALOX: Early TR, applies vote/pressure to Eira after the latter refuses to answer questions, turns around into thinking Eira is town after Eiralox starts posting longer posts. Reverses with second vote after Eira seems to be expressing fake emotion re: schadd

It's harder to draw conclusions based on the Eira elimination because by definition a lot of townies also wanted the same thing as the Mafia, but in general I would summarize things as follows:

Did not want the Galron elimination, or tried to remove pressure from it:
Kirigiri/Klick
Enchant
Seanzie
Schadd (sort of)

Actively wanted the Eiralox elimination:
Schadd
KittyTacky
redcardinal
T3

Passively wanted the Eiralox elimination:
Seanzie
Klick

Based on this Schadd/Seanzie/Klick don't come off as great in regards to their positions on both eliminations.

I can definitely get behind a Klick elimination here. However, there is also one possibility that I didn't notice until I went back and reread all of this: What about a KT/Schadd pairing? This would require KT bussing Galron but otherwise fits. Nobody ever bothered to ask this for some reason and it's kind of too late now, but
why did KT roleblock Schadd
? Redcardinal was KT's big pick for Galron's partner; he accused her of chainsaw defending Galron. Why not block her? In a KT/Schadd pair KittyTacky can easily claim that he blocked Schadd knowing that Schadd won't contradict him. The two of them don't have a lot of direct interactions in either direction on Day 1; Schadd seems like a weird choice of target for a town roleblock.
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Post Post #1467 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:37 pm

Post by Enchant »

But i didn't do anything with Galron, i literally was not here.
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Post Post #1468 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:02 pm

Post by Enchant »

VOTE: Prince
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Post Post #1469 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:03 pm

Post by Enchant »

Fuck.
Disregard that.
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Post Post #1470 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:19 pm

Post by Klick »

In post 1443, Seanzie wrote:
In post 1441, Klick wrote:
In post 1405, Seanzie wrote:So from what I can tell, you have me pretty much as a town!lock. Being in this coveted position, I'd like to ask you to do me a favor. Would you be willing to attempt to towncase RedCardinal? You've been scumreading them pretty much without wavering since you got into the thread, and I think they're town. In order to help me read you, I'd like to see if you can consider the flipside of Red's posts.

I'm not asking you to necessarily change your read on Red, but just like... go through their ISO and try to see if you can give any evidence for town!Red here (even if you think the evidence for scum!Red outweighs the evidence for town!Red).
The problem here is that with the way I solve, I have a lot of trouble giving thoughts on people that aren't genuinely what I believe. I find many of the things commonly used to townread and scumread people just... wrong, or not an accurate way of solving. I could try to intentionally towncase redcardinal, but it wouldn't be genuine.

What will probably be more useful is if I read redcardinal's ISO and see if that changes anything?
Hmm... okay. Could you possibly quote a recent scum game or two of yours? Feel free to throw a town game in as well if you want.
These are the only two scum games that I have that are remotely recent:
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=88034
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=87412

I'm struggling to find a decent town game to link to from around that time because I, uh, replaced out of a number of them. I have a few good town games much more recently but it won't make for as good a comparison
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Post Post #1471 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:23 pm

Post by Klick »

In post 1450, KittyTacky wrote:Re: schadd_
Yeah I thought RC was pretty scummy during the night but now I don't think so. The Klick case made sense to me.
What about it specifically made sense to you?
I understand people feeling vaguely poor about this slot due to relative inactivity/optics, but redcardinal didn't really provide any evidence for my slot being scum outside of a personal theory of the scumteam
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Post Post #1472 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:37 pm

Post by Klick »

In post 1466, Haschel Cedricson wrote:EIRALOX: Sees as town, tries to shift wagon to me albeit half-heartedly. Finally hammers after peer pressure from other players.
This feels like a really odd justification for not including Enchant in your set of people who actively or passively wanted the Eiralox elimination. Enchant did hammer Eiralox
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Post Post #1473 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:46 pm

Post by Klick »

I read Galron's posting and think that the scumteam were probably rather happy with bussing him. The fact that there was no actual counter on D1 indicates that a bus is likely
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Post Post #1474 (ISO) » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:46 pm

Post by Klick »

Do you have any confident reads Haschel?

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