Mini Normal 2277 - Frog Images (Game Over)

[T3]

VOTE: Seanzie

What if Galron

was

informed that there is non consecutive night doctor and Seanzie is his partner TMI’ing it.

[Seanzie]

Okay? But Galron can be informed of anything. There’s nothing saying that Galron was informed that there is a non consecutive night doctor, he could have just as easily be informed that there’s a Town Rolecop, or that there is a Town Roleblocker (assuming KT isn’t lying).

Sure, but if you're a PR and a mafia flips informed, you're going to think that it is at least possible that mafia knows of your existance.

[Seanzie]

VOTE: Seanzie

What if Galron

was

informed that there is non consecutive night doctor and Seanzie is his partner TMI’ing it.

Try again.

[T3]

Seanzie’s assertion that Haschel would be worried about a doctor WIFOM kill is improbable for an uninformed town to think.

[T3]

Okay? But Galron can be informed of anything. There’s nothing saying that Galron was informed that there is a non consecutive night doctor, he could have just as easily be informed that there’s a Town Rolecop, or that there is a Town Roleblocker (assuming KT isn’t lying).

Sure, but if you're a PR and a mafia flips informed, you're going to think that it is at least possible that mafia knows of your existance.

No? I don’t think I would ever change my behavior as a PR based on a scum flipping informed.

[Haschel Cedricson]

For the record, Galron's flip was the first time I have ever heard of the role "Informed" so I have no idea what it would or wouldn't have been conceivable for him to be informed about.

Not that it matters; even if the Mafia didn't have an informed any game has the possibility of a doc and so scum always have to decide if the person who is the most obvious target to them is worth taking a shot at anyway.

In this particular game my post about Crescent dying was particularly less surprise that Player X survived and more about surprise Crescent was targeted at all since at the time I felt her and Galron were feasible partners.

[T3]

We have 3 PR claims and 1 flipped PR, so there is theoretically a world in which they can coexist. If there does happen to be another PR, then someone here is lying. If there is exactly one scum in the PR claims, it has to be Seanzie.

[T3]

Haschel’s claim feels beyond genuine. He’s absolutely, categorically, lock town.

[T3]

We have 3 PR claims and 1 flipped PR, so there is theoretically a world in which they can coexist. If there does happen to be another PR, then someone here is lying. If there is exactly one scum in the PR claims, it has to be Seanzie.

IF YOU ARE A POWER ROLE, CLAIM NOW. IF YOU ARE A PR, THEN ONE OF SEANZIE AND HASCHEL IS CONFIRMED SCUM. IF EVERYONE IS A VT, THEN SEANZIE, HASCHEL, AND KT ARE 99% CLEARED.

[T3]

Actually not 99% cleared. Theoretically there can be only 3 pr’s, I’ve modded games with 3 scum and 3 pr’s. But I almost always see 4 PRs in 13 player mini normals.

[Enchant]

I am Jester.

[T3]

I am Jester.

Do you think Haschel is town?

[Enchant]

Likely so

[T3]

What I’m getting at is that:
It is extremely unlikely there are 5 town prs in a 13 player normal game, 4 is standard, 3 is unlikely but possible.
We have 3 pr claims (Seanzie, Haschel, KT) and 1 flipped pr (Eiralox).
If there is another PR, then one of Seanzie or Haschel is lying as Seanzie claimed to have an inno on KT.

[T3]

Does this make sense?

[T3]

Does this make sense?

[schadd_]

idt massclaim is needed gimme a second

[schadd_]

IF YOU ARE A POWER ROLE, CLAIM NOW. IF YOU ARE A PR, THEN ONE OF SEANZIE AND HASCHEL IS CONFIRMED SCUM. IF EVERYONE IS A VT, THEN SEANZIE, HASCHEL, AND KT ARE 99% CLEARED.

i'll make a claim at the top and justify it later: sentences 2 and 3 do not imply sentence 1.

so first of all, i softly disagree with sentence 2. there's games with 5 power roles. here's a spotty example: vig, backup vig, novice traffic analyst (close to cop strength in this case), 3 shot tracker, 1-shot bp. 1-shot bp is weak and backup vig is a backup, but rolecop is weak in this setup, non-consecutive night doc is weak, and we don't know what seanzie's role is. from the mini archives (1952) i found vanilla cop, roleblocker, 2-shot vig, 2-shot doc, 2-shot bp. kind of similar to here (if there's another role somewhere). in that case, there's a large amt of (low power) roles that can exist in addition to the current roles on the table and would stack up. crucially that requires that there's mafia power, which we don't know about.

i think if there's a full and good invest role out there, that person would have a bit of reason to believe seanzie is a wolf. if there's a full and good doctor out there, that person has good reason to believe haschel is lying; implo doesn't like pairs of doctors for town. anything else that's like a gated role or something that doesn't give hard results, i don't think you need to claim or have much to glean here.

i do believe that if everyone else is vanilla, that's a sign that the claimed PRs are all town yes. i don't see any subset of them where it would make up a fully furnished town, although maybe it depends on what seanzie is.

anyway: in the event that there's a full role that makes it clear that one of the claimed roles is lying. if you claim on d3, that means we have a pool of 4 people and one of them is scum. awesome! i would look for the wolf outside of that group, because of them being claimed prs. so the claim is not worthwhile. at the very least waiting until d4 is like, free, it gives a theoretical extra town pr additional time to get a result or do whatever they do and if they want to claim that day, sure, it doesn't make things any worse.

in particular there are roles here with the ability for mafia to play around them, especially if they have blocking power. more info is great for mafia. people on this site are too ready to massclaim

[schadd_]

another thing i think is important is that it is currently not clear what seanzie's role is and i think that's great and there's no reason for that to change. i'm pretty comfortable seanzie is town.

[redcardinal]

I believe haschel, seanzie, and kt are all telling the truth

[redcardinal]

in any case, voting in that bunch is the worst decision we can make today. t3 please vote klick

[schadd_]

I'm gonna claim as well. I am a Non-Consecutive Night Doctor. I am not going to reveal if I used my power last night or not so the scum will have to choose between either killing me or taking a shot at taking out the cop.

Is a Nonconsecutive Doc, Rolecop, Roleblocker, and Regular Cop too much for a Normal Game? To be honest I have no idea these days since this is my first game in a long time. But either KittyTacky and Seanzie are partners, in which case one false move sinks both of them, or they are telling the truth and we can start doing some PoE stuff with me removed from the pool as well.

ok so, evaluating this claim:

• i think there's a baseline trickiness in coming up with that role as like a fakeclaim. it's possible it exists as a scum role as a pleasant foil for the rolecop.
  
• there's a town impetus for claiming here, even if i kind of don't agree with it, which is trying to evaluate town power. imo it's hard to come up with that simple basis as scum (and i feel like i've never seen it before), and it's pretty much right when you'd expect town to do it (after seeing a certain critical mass of other roles)
  
• i think there just isn't a reason for mafia to do this, really it constantly pushes up that question "why didn't you die?" and sounds like a huge hassle to parse through what your actions were supposed to be
  
• there's one reason that stuck out to me which is just like rolefishing. something bothersome that stuck out to me was repeating the implicit claim of "regular cop" for seanzie; there's Bo Nyrzlik's Law or whatever its called where you state (potentially) incorrect information as a way to get someone to tell you the real thing. i think haschel is like an epic fan of internet laws like that and to wit i think he'll know the name of the law i'm thinking of and will be prompted to say the correct name of it because i said a wrong one.
  .
  anyway i don't think that really adds up to much. in order for that to be a good move, scum has to be worried about how to play with the current roles (really it's "do i kill kitty or seanzie"; i think haschel being scum pretty much necessitates seanzie town and thus kitty town) and also have somebody that's capable of making endgame elsewise. just seems like a very specific set of circumstances where that's what you wanna do and a very tricky way of doing it which i think i rarely see nowadays.
  
• i'm not affected by the crescent thing. first of all it is reasonable to not have saved crescent night 1, there were a lot of people that could have been killed. i didnt have any ideas who it would be myself. it makes sense as a possibility that haschel doesn't know about informed and wouldn't have any thoughts about it; moreover, if i were to assume haschel is town i personally would not expect that the inform has anything to do with him with a particularly high likelihood.

[schadd_]

just incidentally i think it would make sense for klick to klaim.

[schadd_]

oh anyway conclusion is that i think it's a real claim. i think that follows from what i said but spelling it out.

[schadd_]

VOTE: Seanzie

What if Galron

was

informed that there is non consecutive night doctor and Seanzie is his partner TMI’ing it.

i believe it makes sense to think so but i also don't really think this is what happened.