Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame

[Gamma Emerald]

you seem to be largely playing like you did in PYP S_S, which while I don't gel with it at all, I'm willing to let be
Mohab is kinda just tone?
Also, you two feel less off in how you voted in the coalition

[Gamma Emerald]

oh yeah also thought mirroring for mohab

[Gamma Emerald]

[hutmeil]

Even before I factor in any personal feelings, that nails hutmeil as scum because he's the only one who voted for it that wasn't in it.

Mafia NEEDS to be in the coalition or they lose D1. Town doesn't have to. Though it's nice to win D1, they have the luxury of not being in the coalition and still win the next days. So your logic that I'm scum because I didn't vote myself into the coalition doesn't hold much weight.

[Enchant]

Gamma with the takes I'm not vibing with at all

First of all, we're voting in the coalition today. With 30% chance of hitting scum in the coalition and 12.5% chance of hitting scum outside of it, voting outside the coalition is a very poor choice.

Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are both the obvious people to sus at this point but neither of them are who should be focused on right now. Hutmeil's content that isn't the coalition vote just feels genuine to me.

All in all your catchup has a lot of empty statements and things you could easily double-back on and I read it as really scummy. But that conflicts with my townread on Hyped.

Mala I'm interested in your read on Gamma's replace-in

VOTE: Klick

This is scumclaim, Klick seems to be informed that there's exactly 1 maf in coalition, not 2.

[Klick]

Not sure where anything I said implies that?

[Klick]

Is it the idea that Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are obvious people to sus? Because that's just because they voted the coalition in.

If it's the math, then no, it doesn't imply that at all.

[Klick]

30% = 1.5 scum out of 5 in the coalition
12.5% = 0.5 scum out of 4 outside the coalition

[Klick]

I think hutmeil and Enchant are both town

[Klick]

I think scum are in Gamma, Cat.Jpeg, maybe Mala, maaaaybe UDKG
I've gone off Penguin being scum

[Enchant]

30% = 1.5 scum out of 5 in the coalition
12.5% = 0.5 scum out of 4 outside the coalition

[Alianna]

1.06

Votecount 1.06

UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri (2): PenguinPower, Mohab500
hutmeil (2): Cat.Jpeg, Gamma Emerald
PenguinPower (1): UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri
Cat.Jpeg (1): Malakittens
Gamma Emerald (1): hutmeil
Klick (1): Enchant

Not Voting (1): Klick

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2022-08-30 12:04:16).

[Klick]

30% = 1.5 scum out of 5 in the coalition
12.5% = 0.5 scum out of 4 outside the coalition

Here's another way of putting it

Split scum into Scum 1 and Scum 2

There's 100% chance of Scum 1 being in the coalition

Scum 2 has a 50% chance of being one of the remaining 4 players in the coalition, and a 50% chance of being one of the 4 players outside the coalition


So now, take any random player in the coalition
We've got a 20% chance of hitting Scum 1
and a... oh, 12.5% chance of hitting Scum 2

Take any random player outside the coalition
We've got a 0% chance of hitting Scum 1
and a 12.5% chance of hitting Scum 2


So 32.5% hit rate in coalition, 12.5% hit rate outside it
In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum

[Enchant]

Aren't from your POW, it's actually 25% chance to hit scum 1, because you are of course town and not count self?

[Klick]

That is true, yes. But I'm doing math for everyone, not just for myself.

[Klick]

I don't need to do the math for myself because I already know that voting inside the coalition is correct

[Klick]

I suppose more specifically I'm doing the math to shut down Gamma trying to get us to vote outside the coalition

[UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I believe voting inside the Coalition is correct.

[Alianna]

Mohab500 is due for her third prod and is being replaced.

[Gamma Emerald]

Even before I factor in any personal feelings, that nails hutmeil as scum because he's the only one who voted for it that wasn't in it.

Mafia NEEDS to be in the coalition or they lose D1. Town doesn't have to. Though it's nice to win D1, they have the luxury of not being in the coalition and still win the next days. So your logic that I'm scum because I didn't vote myself into the coalition doesn't hold much weight.

It's more to do with the easy pass and the fact you only voted it to "move the game along"
IN all honesty that logic is just about a scumclaim because there shouldn't be a next stage to move along to if the coalition is properly done, other than the postgame.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think scum are in Gamma, Cat.Jpeg, maybe Mala, maaaaybe UDKG
I've gone off Penguin being scum

your reads suck
I would bet the game on cat.pdf being town

[Gamma Emerald]

30% = 1.5 scum out of 5 in the coalition
12.5% = 0.5 scum out of 4 outside the coalition

Here's another way of putting it

Split scum into Scum 1 and Scum 2

There's 100% chance of Scum 1 being in the coalition

Scum 2 has a 50% chance of being one of the remaining 4 players in the coalition, and a 50% chance of being one of the 4 players outside the coalition


So now, take any random player in the coalition
We've got a 20% chance of hitting Scum 1
and a... oh, 12.5% chance of hitting Scum 2

Take any random player outside the coalition
We've got a 0% chance of hitting Scum 1
and a 12.5% chance of hitting Scum 2


So 32.5% hit rate in coalition, 12.5% hit rate outside it
In other words, definitely aim in the coalition until you hit a scum

I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

[Gamma Emerald]

idk id this is a GOOD reason to TR penguin but I somewhat TR him because he has a similar aura to in Terminator
so in terms of voting inside the coalition, I'd go with UD

[UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri]

Gamma with the takes I'm not vibing with at all

First of all, we're voting in the coalition today. With 30% chance of hitting scum in the coalition and 12.5% chance of hitting scum outside of it, voting outside the coalition is a very poor choice.

Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are both the obvious people to sus at this point but neither of them are who should be focused on right now. Hutmeil's content that isn't the coalition vote just feels genuine to me.

All in all your catchup has a lot of empty statements and things you could easily double-back on and I read it as really scummy. But that conflicts with my townread on Hyped.

Mala I'm interested in your read on Gamma's replace-in

VOTE: Klick

This is scumclaim, Klick seems to be informed that there's exactly 1 maf in coalition, not 2.

I believe Gamma is a better vote.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I believe voting inside the Coalition is correct.

idk id this is a GOOD reason to TR penguin but I somewhat TR him because he has a similar aura to in Terminator
so in terms of voting inside the coalition, I'd go with UD

Gamma saw that I had voted them in 167 before outing this read in 172.

[Klick]

I think your math is wrong, even though my choice rn is not dictated by your mathematics
there is always a scum in the coalition, and there's a 50% chance of another being in it
in the world where only 1 scum is in it, it's a 20% chance
in the world where 2 are in it, it's a 40% chance
averaging those out gives 30%
so your initial figure was right

Although I haven't really looked into it in more depth either lol, I think the real figure comes out to 32.5% of hitting scum simply because there are more players in the coalition than outside of it

Anyway