Open 862: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[Somnus]

Not to be unoriginal, but I agree with literally every take Not_Mafia has had these last couple of pages. I can expand more after digging through ISOs, but just looking through votes, particularly EOD, I think Gamma, Bella, and Norwee should be heavily under the radar today.

I’m too busy to be under the radar today :/
Jake kinda agreed with everything and put me in the top of his townreads. Like not tryna tell you how to think, but that isn’t how partnered Jake would play around me.

This is what happens when I post while tired. Either on the radar or under the microscope. Pick one.

Also i gangnam styled on all his attempts to pocket me and said Jake was a fine wagon most of yesterday. Like i could have easily defended Jake and pushed Enchant harder if i knew i had to defend him.

Ehhh...I feel like there's a lot of posts of you defending Jake without actually committing. Like making it look like you're suspicious of him but not really. Like...leaving it open as a last resort but would prefer not to. I dunno. I can dig them up if you need me to, but I have a feeling you know the posts I'm referring to.

I’m not even sure Bella is scum, wagon just stinks of bussing. Who it is idk yet, but i don’t feel like Bella has been an insincere slot this game.

You may be right. I don't know. Her voting history is pretty bad in this game. Yours as well. That doesn't automatically make someone scum. You may both be town. I dunno. I went for a long walk last night and spent the majority of it tipsy and thinking about a stupid forum mafia game and may have had a moment of clarity.

This is what I do. Even when I was rolling mafia literally every game, I'd often spend a couple hours at night thinking of scenarios and scheming while I'm out wandering aimlessly. Going over night-kill scenarios and who to push and whatnot. I don't know why I'm sharing this. I'm not fully sober. I don't want to expand on this moment of clarity further at the moment. But I dunno. I need to do more "lab" work today as far as ISO'ing and looking at the timing of votes.

If you can come to a conclusion on who you think was bussing on the Jake wagon and why, I'll gladly hear you out and let you know if I agree or disagree with your reasoning. Back to bed. Happy scum day!

[NorwegianboyEE]

Ehhh...I feel like there's a lot of posts of you defending Jake without actually committing. Like making it look like you're suspicious of him but not really. Like...leaving it open as a last resort but would prefer not to. I dunno. I can dig them up if you need me to, but I have a feeling you know the posts I'm referring to.

Yeah i get that. But my argument is that taking the middle ground like i did is pretty unlikely because it is much better to either focus fully on defending or bussing the slot. And tbh, i’m a bit surprised there wasn’t more focused defense of them from any of their partners yesterday. I suspect that an well-made defence could have easily made this flip never happen. Jake’s posts weren’t bad honestly, he put in a lot of work clearly. And there was many arguments one could have used to explain to the gang why they were town.
So that makes me believe that an likely scenario is that whoever Jake’s teammates were, they decided early on from the time of his replacement to begin distancing efforts from him and keep their vote on him. Which is also an valid mafia tactic when you are playing an cop-heavy setup. You don’t want one unfortunate guilty to crumble your entire house of cards assuming Jake was not flipped but instead he or their partners got guilty-checked at some point.
So in conclusion i would want to focus more on the early Jake-voters as of right now. But i also think BBT had some interaction that need more questioning. Like their explanation of thinking Jake/Enkant was TvT before unceremoniously settling on voting Jake.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Actually late voters might have voted early? I need to check VC progression when i got time. Unless you did the work already Somnus cus that would help out.

[Bellaphant]

Looking at the votes and positioning, I think the ones that ring alarm bells for me are pp, gamma and bbt, but I did have an early tr on gamma. I really liked nm posting on the last page.

[Enchant]

I too don't care about game, let's just vote Gamma, ok?

[Gamma Emerald]

I too don't care about game, let's just vote Gamma, ok?

Will you self-vote when I flip town?

[Enchant]

Last person promised to selfvote just replaced out afterwards as i remember.


Also no. I love myself too much.

[Gamma Emerald]

You just admitted I’m gonna flip town!

[Enchant]

Nah

[Bellaphant]

@norwee, haven't looked at actual votes but the 'early' ones were nm, enchant and somnus, yeah? Out of those, somnus is most likely town.

Trying to get my head around maybe both wagons being on scum: it would explain why we couldn't get a pile on of votes later on the day.

[Enchant]

I guess your hate to me is deeprooted, that you disregard all obvious evidence that i am town, just because you can't comprehend fact that you was wrong.

[Gamma Emerald]

…

[Enchant]

Don't ... on me you ... if you even ... on me ... again i will ... do you understand that?

[Bellaphant]

? Was that at me? That feels a bit ott considering how it was clearly phrases as a speculation

[NorwegianboyEE]

I guess your hate to me is deeprooted, that you disregard all obvious evidence that i am town, just because you can't comprehend fact that you was wrong.

My hate is too deeply rooted. I must take it out on Enchamt

[Gamma Emerald]

Don't ... on me you ... if you even ... on me ... again i will ... do you understand that?

Who’s more likely to be legitimately wrong: scum or town? Honest question.

[Somnus]

Quick thought-dump while I've got a few minutes:

I was trying to weigh the pros and cons of a mass-claim at this point but dunno how effective it would even be. Then I thought perhaps it would just make sense if there was exactly a Night 3 Doctor for them to out themselves today. I don't think it would be in mafia's best interest to fake-claim it at this point. It would put a target on the person's back though and I ended up coming to the conclusion that it may not be beneficial anyway. So I suppose both of those ideas are likely out.

[Something_Smart]

Prodding Kop. (Sorry, my bad for being super freaking late on that.)

[Somnus]

@norwee, haven't looked at actual votes but the 'early' ones were nm, enchant and somnus, yeah? Out of those, somnus is most likely town.

Trying to get my head around maybe both wagons being on scum: it would explain why we couldn't get a pile on of votes later on the day.

I can go back through Day 2 later on in the evening/tonight and list every vote that was on Jake. Again, don't know if it will help. When I voted for Jake, it put him at E-2 (4th vote on him at the time). If I recall, at some point after that, BlueBlood and Penguin ended up switching to Enchant, but I don't remember all the details surrounding the progression there. Not_Mafia, Enchant, and myself are the ones who ended up parking our votes there, as seen by the final vote count.

[Somnus]

Prodding Kop. (Sorry, my bad for being super freaking late on that.)

Thank-you. I was literally about to ask for this in my next post.

[Something_Smart]

Oh I'm actually a scatterbrain, and the night is the reason they didn't post for 4 days, lmao. They'd still be due for a prod in a few hours, so I won't count it as a prod if they post before then.

[Somnus]

I too don't care about game, let's just vote Gamma, ok?

I still care. I'm willing to drag this game out in the most boring way possible if it means being thorough and giving town the best chance of winning. So I'm challenging you to dig deep here and give me reasons. I'm seemingly one of the only people who believes you're town, but my confidence in that is going to wane unless it looks like you're attempting to solve here.

[Something_Smart]

VC 3.1

Bellaphant (1)- BlueBloodedToffee
Gamma Emerald (1)- Enchant
Enchant (1)- Gamma Emerald

Not voting (6)- PenguinPower, Not_Mafia, Somnus, Bellaphant, Kop, NorwegianboyEE

With 9 alive it takes 5 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2022-09-07 17:00:00)

Mod notes: I finally got Mario Kart a few days ago

[Not_Mafia]

Quick thought-dump while I've got a few minutes:

I was trying to weigh the pros and cons of a mass-claim at this point but dunno how effective it would even be. Then I thought perhaps it would just make sense if there was exactly a Night 3 Doctor for them to out themselves today. I don't think it would be in mafia's best interest to fake-claim it at this point. It would put a target on the person's back though and I ended up coming to the conclusion that it may not be beneficial anyway. So I suppose both of those ideas are likely out.

We're a day or two off mass claim, scum potentially has killed or knows all the cops, so we need to protect the very limited investigative info left to gain, if any.

[NorwegianboyEE]

BBT doesn't seem partnered with Frog/Jake from looking back on day 1.
Frog is pushing BBT for a reason that seems not like bussing, and there is some back and forth there that i don't think would be easy to fake.
So i think maybe BBT is town. I've said Bella feels town but i'm not sure they can't be partnered with Jake. Ima check that right now since they were one of the only slots voting Enchant apart from me and Jake at the end of yesterday.