Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame

[Klick]

Yoink

[hutmeil]

You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?

That crossed my mind yes. What do you think Mala wanted to say about you?

[hutmeil]

Gamma is town

Why is that?

[Enchant]

Idk i would bus d1, then claim i am not idiot. It's just saying that it possible, not fact i want Gamma headless.

[PenguinPower]

VOTE: hut

[PenguinPower]

You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?

tbf that's how i got my first scum win on site.

[Gamma Emerald]

You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?

That crossed my mind yes. What do you think Mala wanted to say about you?

I don’t think she had anything specific in store that she hadn’t already said

[Gamma Emerald]

You think I opted to bus in a micro on D1?

tbf that's how i got my first scum win on site.

Mine too but it was a unique scenario

[hutmeil]

We had 4 possible scenarios:
1) scum A in, scum B in
2) scum A in, scum B out
3) scum A out, scum B in
4) scum A out, scum B out

Scenario 4 is a win for town so that's not an option for scum. So here are the probabilities for scum

inside

the coalition:
- 1/3 chance of 2 scum in
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum in

While here are the probabilities for scum

outside

the coalition:
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum out
- no chance of 2 scum out

If we elim inside:
(1/3) * (2/5) + (2/3) * (1/5) = 0.267 (27% total chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
(0/3) * (2/4) + (2/3) * (1/4) = 0.167 (17% total chance of hitting scum)

So we made the right decision of voting inside the coalition since it had a higher chance of hitting scum.

However the thing that bothers me is how we got scum on the first try. There was a 27% chance of hitting but that means there's a

63% chance of NOT

. So the chances of not hitting is greater than hitting scum. Which leads me to believe that scum bussed.

Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.

Now going back to the scenarios for D2:
1) Scum in
2) Scum out

So that's 50% chance for each scenario:

If we elim inside:
50% * (1/4) = 0.125 (13% chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
50% * (1/3) = 0.167 (17% chance of hitting scum)

There is now a higher chance of hitting scum outside coalition. Pair that with the D1 wagon:

Wagon: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald,

Enchant

, Klick (plus NK'd Mala)
Outside Coalition:

Enchant

, Cat, Hutmeil (plus NK'd Mala)

The common player in the groups is enchant. So:

UNVOTE: Gamma

VOTE: Enchant

[Jake The Wolfie]

To quote tris in Telephone Pictionary: Waggingly Good Tales:

"timey wimey stuff makes the clock go long"

[Klick]

We had 4 possible scenarios:
1) scum A in, scum B in
2) scum A in, scum B out
3) scum A out, scum B in
4) scum A out, scum B out

Scenario 4 is a win for town so that's not an option for scum. So here are the probabilities for scum inside the coalition:
- 1/3 chance of 2 scum in
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum in

While here are the probabilities for scum outside the coalition:
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum out
- no chance of 2 scum out

It not being an option for scum does not mean it wasn't possible at the start

Everyone has an equal chance of being scum after one scum is eliminated from the coalition

[hutmeil]

It not being an option for scum does not mean it wasn't possible at the start

Sure. But we're now in the present looking back into the past.

Everyone has an equal chance of being scum after one scum is eliminated from the coalition

I think that's debatable. We could continue the scenarios or go with the 1/7 chance of hitting scum.

[Enchant]

Spoiler: bruh

We had 4 possible scenarios:
1) scum A in, scum B in
2) scum A in, scum B out
3) scum A out, scum B in
4) scum A out, scum B out

Scenario 4 is a win for town so that's not an option for scum. So here are the probabilities for scum

inside

the coalition:
- 1/3 chance of 2 scum in
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum in

While here are the probabilities for scum

outside

the coalition:
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum out
- no chance of 2 scum out

If we elim inside:
(1/3) * (2/5) + (2/3) * (1/5) = 0.267 (27% total chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
(0/3) * (2/4) + (2/3) * (1/4) = 0.167 (17% total chance of hitting scum)

So we made the right decision of voting inside the coalition since it had a higher chance of hitting scum.

However the thing that bothers me is how we got scum on the first try. There was a 27% chance of hitting but that means there's a

63% chance of NOT

. So the chances of not hitting is greater than hitting scum. Which leads me to believe that scum bussed.

Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.

Now going back to the scenarios for D2:
1) Scum in
2) Scum out

So that's 50% chance for each scenario:

If we elim inside:
50% * (1/4) = 0.125 (13% chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
50% * (1/3) = 0.167 (17% chance of hitting scum)

There is now a higher chance of hitting scum outside coalition. Pair that with the D1 wagon:

Wagon: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald,

Enchant

, Klick (plus NK'd Mala)
Outside Coalition:

Enchant

, Cat, Hutmeil (plus NK'd Mala)

The common player in the groups is enchant. So:

UNVOTE: Gamma

VOTE: Enchant

There's easier math.


There's 9 players.
There's 1 mafia in coailition, minus. It's now 8.
Add 2 groups for 4 people. One of them is mafia.
8/4=2.
There's 2 options where remaining maf ends up. Chance for remaining maf get in one team is 50%.
It means remaining maf have equal chances to get in both.


So nice try. Don't try your math again, because i will beat you.

[hutmeil]

Don't try your math again, because i will beat you.

9 - 1 - 1 = 7 people left.

[Klick]

VOTE: hutmeil

[Cat.Jpeg]

If we elim inside:
50% * (1/4) = 0.125 (13% chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
50% * (1/3) = 0.167 (17% chance of hitting scum)

There is now a higher chance of hitting scum outside coalition. Pair that with the D1 wagon:

Wagon: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald, Enchant, Klick (plus NK'd Mala)
Outside Coalition: Enchant, Cat, Hutmeil (plus NK'd Mala)

The common player in the groups is enchant. So:

UNVOTE: Gamma

VOTE: Enchant

See this is where I think math stops being that useful. Theres 4% difference from inside the coalition and outside the coalition. This would only be important if we were not doing anything at all to analyse how scummy someone is based off how they are acting. I think we are at least 4% better than random at finding scum. Hutmeil just seems to be trying to create any wagon that isnt him and also protecting himself by saying he thinks the other scum was bussing. I would vote right now but I don't think e-1 within 24hrs is a good idea. I will iso tmr to make sure.

[Enchant]

Hutmail smeels like VI.

[hutmeil]

Hutmeil just seems to be trying to create any wagon that isnt him and also protecting himself by saying he thinks the other scum was bussing.

Or scum really bussed. I think that's the most logical thing for scum to do given that UKDG was inactive toward the end.

[PenguinPower]

Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.

Do...you really think I point that out in this instance?

[hutmeil]

Hutmail smeels like VI.

Yeah thanks.

[hutmeil]

Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.

Do...you really think I point that out in this instance?

Maybe, but I chose to believe you given you also bussed (I mean your fellows scum) our last game together.

[PenguinPower]

What do you mean you "chose to believe me." Believe me about what?

[Gamma Emerald]

Hutmail smeels like VI.

Why?

[Alianna]

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[Alianna]

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