Open 863 - The Coalition - Postgame

[Enchant]

Nah.

[Enchant]

I am not in list.
I am not healing.

[Enchant]

This breaks 2 times (or even 3) combo of town wins via coailition.

UNVOTE:

[Enchant]

So anyway.
Mala town, i give her my vote.

GG with receiving doublevote Mala.

[Enchant]

Gamma with the takes I'm not vibing with at all

First of all, we're voting in the coalition today. With 30% chance of hitting scum in the coalition and 12.5% chance of hitting scum outside of it, voting outside the coalition is a very poor choice.

Hutmeil and Bloodb0t are both the obvious people to sus at this point but neither of them are who should be focused on right now. Hutmeil's content that isn't the coalition vote just feels genuine to me.

All in all your catchup has a lot of empty statements and things you could easily double-back on and I read it as really scummy. But that conflicts with my townread on Hyped.

Mala I'm interested in your read on Gamma's replace-in

VOTE: Klick

This is scumclaim, Klick seems to be informed that there's exactly 1 maf in coalition, not 2.

[Enchant]

30% = 1.5 scum out of 5 in the coalition
12.5% = 0.5 scum out of 4 outside the coalition

[Enchant]

Aren't from your POW, it's actually 25% chance to hit scum 1, because you are of course town and not count self?

[Enchant]

Eh. I am still in mood of voting Klick, but if you need my vote...

[Enchant]

Maybe makes sense, but there's also more. Could be quirk of course.

So why i need vote Ultimate/Gamma?

[Enchant]

If you can't notice maf in coalition where it's confirmed, how we can trust your reads outside where it's not confirmed?

[Enchant]

VOTE: UltimateDetectiveKiriGiri

[Enchant]

How Ultimate even passed in coalition?

[Enchant]

Idk i would bus d1, then claim i am not idiot. It's just saying that it possible, not fact i want Gamma headless.

[Enchant]

Spoiler: bruh

We had 4 possible scenarios:
1) scum A in, scum B in
2) scum A in, scum B out
3) scum A out, scum B in
4) scum A out, scum B out

Scenario 4 is a win for town so that's not an option for scum. So here are the probabilities for scum

inside

the coalition:
- 1/3 chance of 2 scum in
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum in

While here are the probabilities for scum

outside

the coalition:
- 2/3 chance of 1 scum out
- no chance of 2 scum out

If we elim inside:
(1/3) * (2/5) + (2/3) * (1/5) = 0.267 (27% total chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
(0/3) * (2/4) + (2/3) * (1/4) = 0.167 (17% total chance of hitting scum)

So we made the right decision of voting inside the coalition since it had a higher chance of hitting scum.

However the thing that bothers me is how we got scum on the first try. There was a 27% chance of hitting but that means there's a

63% chance of NOT

. So the chances of not hitting is greater than hitting scum. Which leads me to believe that scum bussed.

Per Penguin's 255, this is a possibility since he did it before. And looking back, UDKG didn't even defend herself from the vote so might be a setup for bussing.

Now going back to the scenarios for D2:
1) Scum in
2) Scum out

So that's 50% chance for each scenario:

If we elim inside:
50% * (1/4) = 0.125 (13% chance of hitting scum)

If we elim outside:
50% * (1/3) = 0.167 (17% chance of hitting scum)

There is now a higher chance of hitting scum outside coalition. Pair that with the D1 wagon:

Wagon: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald,

Enchant

, Klick (plus NK'd Mala)
Outside Coalition:

Enchant

, Cat, Hutmeil (plus NK'd Mala)

The common player in the groups is enchant. So:

UNVOTE: Gamma

VOTE: Enchant

There's easier math.


There's 9 players.
There's 1 mafia in coailition, minus. It's now 8.
Add 2 groups for 4 people. One of them is mafia.
8/4=2.
There's 2 options where remaining maf ends up. Chance for remaining maf get in one team is 50%.
It means remaining maf have equal chances to get in both.


So nice try. Don't try your math again, because i will beat you.

[Enchant]

Hutmail smeels like VI.

[Enchant]

VOTE: hutmail

NO TIME TO EXPLAIN

HAMMER HUTMAIL

... Yeah, i kinda don't see town!hut anymore.

[Enchant]

Great, I might as well self-hammer.

DO IT

[Enchant]

I know you won't do it.

[Enchant]

Like hell, obviously atleast one person will ask PLEASE DON'T HAMMER FIGHT FOR THE END.

And you like "Oh see peolle object".

You won't do it. Otherwise you would. Your manipulation doesn't work on ME

[Enchant]

You would die already if so.

[Enchant]

UNVOTE:

Only robbing you luxury of selfdisposing.

You hoped someone will do so, are u?

[Enchant]

Nononono.

If you are town, you will gladly selfhammer.
If you are mafia, you probably will make some excuse to not do so. Because hammering self is instalose for you and useless.

Therefore... I see no reason to let You decide this matter.

[Enchant]

Blah blah blah.

I don't care.

[Enchant]

Nononono.

If you are town, you will gladly selfhammer.
If you are mafia, you probably will make some excuse to not do so. Because hammering self is instalose for you and useless.

Therefore... I see no reason to let You decide this matter.

why don't you just vote hut so someone else can decide to hammer?

More silly questions, anyone?

[Enchant]

Nononono.

If you are town, you will gladly selfhammer.
If you are mafia, you probably will make some excuse to not do so. Because hammering self is instalose for you and useless.

Therefore... I see no reason to let You decide this matter.

why don't you just vote hut so someone else can decide to hammer?

More silly questions, anyone?

Who pissed your pants?

I don't wear pants.

[Enchant]

VOTE: hutmail

And there you go.

[Enchant]

It was already d2

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahgahaa

[Enchant]

Bruh

[Enchant]

Sooooooo.

It's Jake.

VOTE: Jake

[Enchant]

Gamma kill only makes sense from Jake perspective, due out thinking "Aha, Gamma is blatant kill to frame Jake", which would work in his favor.

Even while i vote him he doesn't jackshit and just PRAY other ppl will vote me in response so he can join in.

His jokeremarks makes sense if he knows that i am town (for trolling about me being useful and stuff).

Any other?

[Enchant]

What lurker said to another lurker?

"..."

[Enchant]

And what about my night play?

It EXIST

[Enchant]

Question should be "Why", not "How".

HOW DID YOU KNOW I MURDEER PPL REEEEEEEE

[Enchant]

I refuse. Question is redundant.

[Enchant]

I don't understand why you!maf would kill me first, but it's exactly kill you WILL NOT make.

Because everyone else knows better. It's selfframe.

[Enchant]

If we put it that way, anyone can.

Especially me. Like yeah, i killed Gamma and now say that's you. Makes sense? Idk honestly, mostly not. I would shot Klick though. Or Gamma. Well, i wouldn't use it as argument then. Or i would.

Gamma is also one of persons who doesn't just bandwagon me on any sneeze, so it's awesome kill for my eventually death, i think.


I don't care though. You doesn't seems to be interested in finding real goon, and while you CAN flip town, I quarantee it doesn't give you any satisfaction of "haha you was wrong about me" because i don't care about it.

Fairly, whole game is lurksuck, so idk what i supposed to do, u all should be more active.
Yes, i am hypocrite, how did you know?

[Enchant]

btw im going v/la from 12/9 to 14/9 so i wont be here during the deadline so if anyone wants to ask anything do it soon.

Why you are cat.jpeg and not cat.gif or atleast cat.avi?


Also i can bluntly say Yes.
There's no solid case on Jake. Otherwise it would be game end/night already.

[Enchant]

Just hammer Jake then.

I don't mind.

[Enchant]

Weeeeeeell

That's complete incompetence.

[Enchant]

Beautiful.

I am yoloing, give me 10 min or so, i will iso both.

[Enchant]

I did read, mostly both are sucked, detective hammering coalition after penguin vote and then instavoting was something.

I didn't found discussuons with cat, so i presume cat is maf.
I think.
Probably.

I will come back tomorrow, can't deal with it now

[Enchant]

I want let Cat say something beforehand

[Enchant]

based

[Enchant]

Me?

I am speechless.

[Enchant]

I know one way to resolve it.

IT'S TIME TO THROW FUCKING DICE.

[Enchant]

I rolled 1. It was Cat.

Surprisingly dice agrees with me.

VOTE: Cat


I apologise beforehand if i am wrong (idk really)

[Enchant]

THANK GOD I WAS RIGHT AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAA

[Enchant]

bruh