LOST (Game Over)

[Off The Hook]

huh

i honestly cant tell if johnnys scum or town now :/ i expected him to be better at reading me

[Roden]

If only one of Johnny or OTH are scum, then Nora can still be scum despite not being in Pooky's PoE

you're literally maneuvering a whole puzzle to fit me into a scum team. "lukewarm said noraa is scum and since pooky said oth/johnny, if only one is scum, noraa could still be scum!!"

its really annoying that you are like an ic here and not giving us any new content to work with. like do you not have reads outside of what luke and pooky have said? im sorry that's kind of mean but like, are you reading my posts and actually thinking about them? are you interacting with me and actively trying to read me? or are you just ready to die and want to hand things off? like i feel like i understand where you are coming from, but its frustrating to be on the receiving end. i feel like i am trying to solve this game and you're just throwing around some random thing luke said. it feels like you've done zero of the research yourself and are blind trusting luke.

luke has scumread me literally every single game he's been in with me. does that say shit about my alignment? why are you blind trusting dead town? just because they're town? like your argument has no content and is based off of "luke scumreads you and luke is town" like that argument does not hold up to any logic test. that is an invalid argument. if both premises can be true and the conclusion false, the argument is invalid. ok well thats the dry cut logic and doesn't always apply in mafia. but here, it certainly does.

I know you replaced in late and probably didn't see my posts, but I've given my reads and explanations/reasonings for them over the past few phases. My Bird read didn't randomly sprout up after they asked to die and it's silly to pretend like that's the only reason I would town read them.

And I'm not even saying you're my main scum read, I won't even be around to vote you if we flip town today since I don't see why scum would bring me to ELO. Like, it would be funny to bring a conftown I guess? But it isn't worth the meme. And I don't think anyone's taking my reads into account tomorrow when I die tonight, they're barely being taken seriously now.

As far as my read on you goes, it isn't based entirely on Luke's read on you either. I'm using his read to support my own, sure, but there's more to it than just that.

[Roden]

@Butterflies:

Who exactly do you want out at this point? It looks like you're backing off of OTH now, and I assume that means you'd want Bird out instead. Problem is that I'm not voting there and I don't know where you're gonna get the votes to make it happen. Even if you want Bird dead, who's their partner supposed to be at this point?

[Noraa]

but there's more to it than just that.

where's the more

[Best Bird]

huh

i honestly cant tell if johnnys scum or town now :/ i expected him to be better at reading me

the former

[Best Bird]

Scum play suboptimally sometimes. I'm not sure why Hook missing their shot and then letting out some sort-of-useful-information-at-the-time on a dead malcolm counts much in their favor here. I'd still bet on them being scum here when compared to Noraa, Mislim or Butterflies.

really? what changed?

I mean yeah if you flip town here I'm obviously wrong somewhere. Could be butterfiles

If I had my druthers it'd be Butterflies > oth > BB cuz I think scum Nancy (if she is scum) needs to be stopped sooner rather than later.

You are my hardest townread, and the it goes Mislim, Nora, BB, Butterflies and hook being last, and thereby most likely to be scum.

[butterflies]

@Butterflies:

Who exactly do you want out at this point? It looks like you're backing off of OTH now, and I assume that means you'd want Bird out instead. Problem is that I'm not voting there and I don't know where you're gonna get the votes to make it happen. Even if you want Bird dead, who's their partner supposed to be at this point?

I don’t even know who’s fooling me anymore but you haven’t really engaged me on my Toog/Tally/Yeet/Noraa read at all. Math and Tally do not look SvS. If there’s one reaction I’ve never seen from scumbuddies. it’s indifference and Math didn’t look like he had a preference between Ceph and Taly during gladiate and Pooky wasn’t sr Noraa and I’m not getting scumpings from her but if you want to convince me I’m wrong, you actually need to refutz my reasons for tr Noraa and you sr her and Luke does as well, doesn’t debunk any of my reasons to have the opposite read.

Wrt to OtH, I just don’t think scum!Gamma would gaslight me like that. Gamma cares about our friendship and I don’t think he’d risk putting it in to jeopardy just to win a scumgame.

Pooky nk does point the most to Johhny as does CSF nk but BB should know that this is my towngame and him not seeing it here, is very concerning. If it’s MB, he deserves a scummie but interactions with scum look antipartnery for him, so Idk anymore. \_0_/

So I’m not trying to control the vote but rn, I don’t want to vote out Noraa and I want to believe that Gamma wouldn’t hurtfully gaslight me like that. I think BB not tr me really bothers me because he has never wrongly sr me in any game ever.

So what I’m going to do is to tell you who I’m most opposed to voting today and that’s probably Noraa, OtH and Mislim.

I should pull up more Taly quotes but I think some exist that look like Taly and Johnny are unaligned. Anyway, that’s where I’m currently at.

What I need is for the day to go on as long as possible until I get a lot more clarity because rn, I don’t even know who I want to vote for. Hence, I’m currently not voting anyone.

So, if you want to change my mind on anything, I need compelling arguments countering mine on everyone. I also recently ISO’d Johnny in Radiology and he sounds different here, so Idk.

What I can tell you from this game was that I initially tr Toad and DNA, then doubted those reads and it turned out that my initial instincts were indeed correct.

And if I’m right about both Noraa and OtH, well they don’t look aligned, so yeah I think it’s probably not either of them. While I don’t think that what Gamma said is necessarily clearing actually is, I get the impression he really thinks it is. Like I just can’t see Gamma exploiting our friendship like that especially in such a hurtful way - intentionally or not - just to win a scumgame. Gamma isn’t FL.

I once had an intense argument with FL where he was town stump and I was one of his masons - about Pooky. I can’t recall the specifics but I lockcleared him due to ethical reasons, because Pooky is one of those players who won’t sacrifice ethics for the sake of winning a scumgame ever. Gamma falls into that category as well. FL otoh would probably lim his sick mothef in a heartbeat if it helped his wincon.

So my current best answer to you rn, is let’s just wait and hopeful I get an epiphany closer to deadline.

[Best Bird]

Pooky nk does point the most to Johhny as does CSF nk but BB should know that this is my towngame and him not seeing it here, is very concerning. If it’s MB, he deserves a scummie but interactions with scum look antipartnery for him, so Idk anymore. \_0_/

tbf - i don't scumread you which is why i gave two different options (one of which being blinded town). I think it's johnny > noraa.

quite honestly your whole posting this weekend has taken you off the table for me.

[Best Bird]

pretty sure luke agrees but he's mostly focused on noraa in the pt

[Best Bird]

yeah, he agrees.

[Best Bird]

i called nancy out for the 180 on johnny. you think i am scum with johnny. scum that decided to create pairings of scum, all with my scum partner instead of taking nancy's 180 and running with it.

To paraphrase Luke - yes.

He posted Friday night that 14966 where you say you think that bb-nancy is more likely than johnny-nancy looks like you are actively in the middle of pivoting away from Johnny, either to Nancy or to me.

Spoiler: which coincidentally you later did here

I think the best elim right now is best bird>johnny>oth.
this is in terms of threat level. i dont think we have issues eliminating scum johnny or scum oth in elo. in fact, i think im more worried about mislimming them potentially if town, so we definitely dont have the issue of not elimming them if scum. the way oth is getting heat for what i see as not being active and best bird isnt because he was all defeatist and angry for no reason makes me also think best bird has a higher likelihood of not being town here since the gamestate is almost always going to favor scum because scum is trying to seem towny whereas town doesnt try to seem towny.
i think the best course of action today is to eliminate best bird. ask luke to leave a final reads list and we'll consider it true if best bird flips town and not consider it if he doesnt. luke is definitely posting because that stuff he said about me is a literal copy of what he's always said about me, so if best bird is actually town, a final reads list with reasons from luke is very important. but i think the risk of scum best bird running away with a win is much higher than scum johnny or oth doing the same thing especially if he has luke content to just copy paste.
consider two situations:
1) we eliminate oth and oth flips town. consider scum best birds chances in elo.
2) we eliminate best bird and best bird flips town. consider scum oths chances in elo.
i dont think those are even vaguely close and the same applies to johnny.

This is while you are also saying that it could also be that it really is nancy-johnny which makes it clear that Nancy has scum equity with Johnny in case he gets flipped today so that you can then lean into the "Nancy as a partner" theory.

[butterflies]

Maybe you’re onto something here BB? Noraa is being very concerningly hedgey on me. Like she won’t come out and straight up call me town and town!Noraa isn’t usually this hedgey.

And I don’t think Gamma gaslights me like this as scum. He wouldn’t sacrifice our friendship just to win a scumgame.

And Drap tracked you, me and MB at some point as well.

[butterflies]

its not really ever changed. i've been thinking about the game as two worlds. one is that butterflies is town and the other is that butterflies is scum.

Like with this post. How does she not have a clear read on me yet? Like why would scum!me go to bat for someone who’s tunnelling me?

[butterflies]

Yeah, I can see how I’m possibly being positioned to be scum here with either you or Johnny. Well I can’t believe I could have been so wrong on Taly then. I would have been absolutely devastated had they flipped town during gladiate.

And Noraa really only came around on me after Roden said I was town. Had he not done that, ze probably would still be pushing me.

It also doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense for Johnny to say that Pooky nk pointed towards me but away from Noraa. Pooky was never voting me here like ever.

So I think I’ve done another 180. I locktowned OtH right out of the gate, then got paranoid on them but I know Gamma and he just wouldn’t use our friendship as a pretext to gaslight me. He just wouldn’t sacrifice our friendship just to win a scumgame.

Yeah, I hard veto OtH wagon, not touching it now with a ten foot pole.

[butterflies]

its not really ever changed. i've been thinking about the game as two worlds. one is that butterflies is town and the other is that butterflies is scum.

Like with this post. How does ZE not have a clear read on me yet? Like why would scum!me go to bat for someone who’s tunnelling me?

[butterflies]

Sorry Noraa for misgendering you.

[butterflies]

its not really ever changed. i've been thinking about the game as two worlds. one is that butterflies is town and the other is that butterflies is scum.

Like with this post. How does ZE not have a clear read on me yet? Like why would scum!me go to bat for someone who’s tunnelling me?

[butterflies]

So if it’s actually Johnny/Noraa then I still can throw it in Drap’s face then? I’ve been salivating at that possibility.

[Noraa]

i called nancy out for the 180 on johnny. you think i am scum with johnny. scum that decided to create pairings of scum, all with my scum partner instead of taking nancy's 180 and running with it.

To paraphrase Luke - yes.

He posted Friday night that 14966 where you say you think that bb-nancy is more likely than johnny-nancy looks like you are actively in the middle of pivoting away from Johnny, either to Nancy or to me.

Spoiler: which coincidentally you later did here

I think the best elim right now is best bird>johnny>oth.
this is in terms of threat level. i dont think we have issues eliminating scum johnny or scum oth in elo. in fact, i think im more worried about mislimming them potentially if town, so we definitely dont have the issue of not elimming them if scum. the way oth is getting heat for what i see as not being active and best bird isnt because he was all defeatist and angry for no reason makes me also think best bird has a higher likelihood of not being town here since the gamestate is almost always going to favor scum because scum is trying to seem towny whereas town doesnt try to seem towny.
i think the best course of action today is to eliminate best bird. ask luke to leave a final reads list and we'll consider it true if best bird flips town and not consider it if he doesnt. luke is definitely posting because that stuff he said about me is a literal copy of what he's always said about me, so if best bird is actually town, a final reads list with reasons from luke is very important. but i think the risk of scum best bird running away with a win is much higher than scum johnny or oth doing the same thing especially if he has luke content to just copy paste.
consider two situations:
1) we eliminate oth and oth flips town. consider scum best birds chances in elo.
2) we eliminate best bird and best bird flips town. consider scum oths chances in elo.
i dont think those are even vaguely close and the same applies to johnny.

This is while you are also saying that it could also be that it really is nancy-johnny which makes it clear that Nancy has scum equity with Johnny in case he gets flipped today so that you can then lean into the "Nancy as a partner" theory.

actually i want to flip you today so are you nancy's partner?

[Noraa]

Maybe you’re onto something here BB? Noraa is being very concerningly hedgey on me. Like she won’t come out and straight up call me town and town!Noraa isn’t usually this hedgey.

:/ ok. like no i will not come out and call you town. yeah, you're right. i won't because you might be scum. defending my slot in a gladiate is your argument for why you're town and i dont buy that.
im considering you town for the rest of today, but that's grace.

[Noraa]

its not really ever changed. i've been thinking about the game as two worlds. one is that butterflies is town and the other is that butterflies is scum.

Like with this post. How does she not have a clear read on me yet? Like why would scum!me go to bat for someone who’s tunnelling me?

Scum you will do anything to get townread. it doesn't matter how ridiculous it sounds in theory. if it gets you townreads, you'll do it. why would going to bat for someone who tunnels you get you townreads? exactly because of this argument.

[Noraa]

And Noraa really only came around on me after Roden said I was town. Had he not done that, ze probably would still be pushing me.

I've never come around on you but I've accepted that there's no way anyone is considering you scum today. if you are scum, now is a pointless time to push you. all it will do is make people think you are town and screw town wincon over. i solved dragon ball day 1. did that help? no i kept telling people who was scum, and everyone dismissed it and it became normal to dismiss me and townread my scumreads. and guess who was shocked when they started flipping scum on like day 5? town. there is no way you are considered before most of the people here. if you are scum, now is too early to push you because there is no support for your wagon. if i catch you now and push you, a failed wagon will make your wagon harder to push in the future.

[Noraa]

i think bb>johnny>oth still for today.

[Best Bird]

i called nancy out for the 180 on johnny. you think i am scum with johnny. scum that decided to create pairings of scum, all with my scum partner instead of taking nancy's 180 and running with it.

To paraphrase Luke - yes.

He posted Friday night that 14966 where you say you think that bb-nancy is more likely than johnny-nancy looks like you are actively in the middle of pivoting away from Johnny, either to Nancy or to me.

Spoiler: which coincidentally you later did here

I think the best elim right now is best bird>johnny>oth.
this is in terms of threat level. i dont think we have issues eliminating scum johnny or scum oth in elo. in fact, i think im more worried about mislimming them potentially if town, so we definitely dont have the issue of not elimming them if scum. the way oth is getting heat for what i see as not being active and best bird isnt because he was all defeatist and angry for no reason makes me also think best bird has a higher likelihood of not being town here since the gamestate is almost always going to favor scum because scum is trying to seem towny whereas town doesnt try to seem towny.
i think the best course of action today is to eliminate best bird. ask luke to leave a final reads list and we'll consider it true if best bird flips town and not consider it if he doesnt. luke is definitely posting because that stuff he said about me is a literal copy of what he's always said about me, so if best bird is actually town, a final reads list with reasons from luke is very important. but i think the risk of scum best bird running away with a win is much higher than scum johnny or oth doing the same thing especially if he has luke content to just copy paste.
consider two situations:
1) we eliminate oth and oth flips town. consider scum best birds chances in elo.
2) we eliminate best bird and best bird flips town. consider scum oths chances in elo.
i dont think those are even vaguely close and the same applies to johnny.

This is while you are also saying that it could also be that it really is nancy-johnny which makes it clear that Nancy has scum equity with Johnny in case he gets flipped today so that you can then lean into the "Nancy as a partner" theory.

actually i want to flip you today so are you nancy's partner?

Try reading my post again. This time while trying.

[Noraa]

when luke townreads me, i'll consider doing that