Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[Not Known 15]

VOTE: Professor Drapion
Pleased to meet you ... CL.

[Not Known 15]

That would only be true if we mis-elim today. On the other hand, if we kill the Leader today then town gets like, five more chances to kill the second cultist. So it's a bit swingy.

The cult cannot afford to lose the CL today at all; it is a win in 7 of all 9 setups and a de facto 7:1 Nightless with 1 IC in the JK setups without FN. That's definitely something to look for.

[Not Known 15]

I agree with the early read on Elements, CL probably just does their best to fade into the background D1.

Or purposely doesn't do that to avoid being limmed. Not a reliable reasoning.

[Not Known 15]

My vote stays on Drapion for exactly these reasons.

[Not Known 15]

1. No early RVS votes.
2.Post 55 with "honest"
3. 74 hedges a lot. So does 82. And 92.
4. 96 looks more like a wolf wanting to get reasons for a wolfread to attack someone("word for word")

[Not Known 15]

I fully disagree with your thoughts on Drapion. I don't think they're hedging anything.

What, really? Ok... it's probably elements and cult leader Drapion then, the hedging is really obvious.

[Not Known 15]

If you think I’m wolf you need to find those key details and push me.
If you think I’m town you need to find those key details and defend me.

^ (this is to everyone)

And this is another post that points to drapion being wolf.
I find it unlikely that Drapion would make this post as town. This is the "give me reasons" of a wolf, very elaborate, constructed...

[Not Known 15]

Math, even if elements is town and Meg is scum then Meg is likely partnered with Drapion as CL.

[Not Known 15]

It's a clear case of constantly moving the goalposts to justify his reads and thoughts when challenged. It's a clear sign of not having genuine desire to solve.

He spreads explicitly wrong information and tries to manipulate the information in the game, doubling down by obfuscation when pressed.

I can see how you may not see it now, heck took me a while to realize exactly what was irking me about it. Reread the interaction with that in mind, it's purely a charisma fueled wagon.

Who?

[Not Known 15]

I am not going to shot in the dark for a leader. I am going to aim for scum and if they happen to be CL fine.

Why not? Day 1 CL is sooo much better than Day 2 CL.Very likely even an instant win.

[Not Known 15]

But the Cult leader will not play like a normal cult member. And Drapion checks a lot of boxes there with the early play and meg's hedging on Drapion, elements terrible reactions to my drapion hedging early case and the follow up read, and, actually, your own reluctance to vote Drapion after what you said, they all point in the same direction. Unless there is no cult in Elements/MegAzumarill/MathBlade then Drapion is Cult, and if Drapion is Cult then very likely Cult Leader. And yes, on day 1 you actually should CL hunt; just a 50%chance of someone being Cult leader and 50% of being town Day 1 is a far superior option to someone with 33% chance of being CL/other cult/town.

[Not Known 15]

So yes, the elimination should be Drapion, not Mathblade.

[Not Known 15]

And while you are explaining that please give us a complete, explained readslist on everyone. That should be doable, we are only at 12 pages.

[Not Known 15]

can someone tell me what this bad reaction was?

Sure thing my dude

No questions, no real pushback, just this. Doesn't look like town hunting scum. Looks more like scum trying to thwart further discussion by calling my line of reasoning ridiculous, indirectly.

[Not Known 15]

Not Known 15, how sure are you that Elements is mafia?

Not entirely. I have seen other suspicious happenings (Meg and Math); but Drapion is very likely Cult Leader.
Why do you disagree on Drapion being CL? All of the other suspicious people, Math, Meg and Elements have some defensive/evasive connection to Drapion, and Drapion's early game is CL-indicative.

[Not Known 15]

I don't think Drapion's early game really suggests 伊 is cult leader.

Well, why not?

[Not Known 15]

VOTE: Not Known 15

Upon looking at Not Known 15's ISO, Not Known 15 called ProfessorDrapion cult leader in his first post. And what did ProfessorDrapion post before that? One post, post 5. Since then, Not Known 15 has continued to call ProfessorDrapion cult leader.

And? That was obviously not very confident(apart from them being the only one to not vote in the first post there was no evidence).
Yet Drapion indeed showed many more signs of being Cult Leader later on.... so why should I have dropped it?

[Not Known 15]

What's cult leadery about not voting in your first post?

Being afraid of voting and taking a stance.

[Not Known 15]

What's cult leadery about not voting in your first post?

Being afraid of voting and taking a stance.

I did take a stance.
On Gamma.
I thought their push on Elements was wolf motivated and still do.

Yes, and now I should townread you for changing your play like that after I already pushed you for hedging?

[Not Known 15]

Same here.... it is elements or meg though, they had bad interactions towards drapion.

[Not Known 15]

Are they CL? My thoughts

MegAzumarill - Interesting. I started off thinking there was no way Meg could be CL but looking through their iso there are a lot of times Meg has said what Drapion is doing is scummy and that they're not town reading Drapion for it but never putting a read into words. Then later when getting to the end of the day phase with so much pressure still on Drapion, flipping to scumming Drapion.

Malakittens - idk. Could be CL trying to just survive the first 1 or 2 days? Could also just be town. I'm inclined to lean towards the latter.

Roden - I don't think was scum on day 1. I do think this could have been the recruit slot last night.

MathBlade - Not CL

Fredrick A Campbell - Little to no interaction with Drapion. Calls Drapion town in 296 then says fre doesn't think Drapion's early game is alignment indicative in 305. Neither Drapion or Campbell interacted with each other at all on day one but both called the other one town. At this point this is my best bet for CL

Gamma Emerald - Not CL

Not Known 15 - Pushed Drapion all day 1.

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

VOTE: MegAzumarill
This post is coming from a

[Not Known 15]

towny mindset. Campbell isn't CL. This only leaves one candidate. Meg.

[Not Known 15]

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

[Not Known 15]

I have to look over it tomorrow but Math acts like a cult recruit, I think.

[Not Known 15]

We all can say with confidence that Mathblade isn't CL.
So Mathblade was Town Day 1.

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

This is " I think X but". We saw this on Drapion, who flipped Cult.

Yeah honestly I think our objective here is to figure out who the CL is and make sure they are executed today.
Also make sure to remember that the second cult member might try and save their CL today cause if they don’t they would have a low chance of winning.

My suggestion is to make sure if your town reading someone not to blindly sheep their town reads (I never do) but cause like they could be the second cultist trying to make their CL look good so make sure you have valid reasons for each of your Townreads.

This read way too honest for me. This reads to me like Drapion had a plan to be TR’d early and Drapion is one of those too honest scum that doesn’t know yet how to highlight which points of scum to highlight and which not. This makes me think that Drapion will have never voted the cult leader.

Yeah no. That assessment is actually made out of thin air. All rests on the unsubstantiated "Drapion is one of those too honest scum"; and even if it was honest it might have been something Drapion wanted to

avoid doing

because they knew it.

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

This is some next level BS because this rests on "there was a bus" which we have no credible evidence for. It took a lot for Drapion to be limmed.
The "elements is town" case is, again, made out of thin air.

Yes.
One of my voters are definitely a cult and I think it’s Math.

This very much reads to me like Drapion’s CL had the intention of converting me and then driving that bus into the ground. Let’s look at the prior post Drapion had.

Why would Math assume that the CL would try to convert them? Maybe because it succeeded?

Now comes the question of who Roden would convert.

If they tried me and failed they would know they would need to buddy me. Especially if they think I am the inconvertible Townie.

This really matches his open and why I wanted to back off and give space to see if someone else was a convert target.

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

VOTE: Roden

This is again, Math's scum bullshit mode meta.
This rests on the assumption that Roden failed to convert(something that is not likely from the position of a VT). It also rests on "no one else has been converted".

If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.

The one exception is maybe Frederick because imho that PoE is terrible.

Backed up by exactly nothing.

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

We have to remove the CL. So this is a soft defense of Elements.
That isn't the only telling thing though, here!
Remember what Math said before?

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

But if that thing would give them a bad vibe, and element isn't CL, they could be the convert, right?
However, Mathblade never backs down from that theory:

I didn't take back a read on you. Like there's nothing else to say here, what you're seeing here is a completely foreign interpretation of what actually happened.

What I'm understanding is that because I didn't unvote Hutmeil after you replaced in, you think that I scum read you as well. If that's the case, that's something I can understand. If not, I don't know what to say, I can't argue with something that I know didn't happen.

Repeating this repeatedly is toxic af to the game

I will just go after you tomorrow when we don’t flip the CL today because we cant

Well, that was not what I was expecting....
but Mathblade has spewed themselves as the convert... and Elements as Cult Leader.
Every time Mathblade said loads of massive BS it was when scum-pushing someone, with one exception. Elements.

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

This is also telling us that Elements is Mathblade's CL: Math is trying to establish a thought progression here, but on Day 1 Math said:

180 is how I form reads

Scum rarely if ever do relational reads or feel where the vibes are

So I make hypothesis and test them

I was evidently wrong on that one post (458) coming from town.
VOTE: Elements

[Not Known 15]

Spoiler:

We all can say with confidence that Mathblade isn't CL.
So Mathblade was Town Day 1.

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

This is " I think X but". We saw this on Drapion, who flipped Cult.

Yeah honestly I think our objective here is to figure out who the CL is and make sure they are executed today.
Also make sure to remember that the second cult member might try and save their CL today cause if they don’t they would have a low chance of winning.

My suggestion is to make sure if your town reading someone not to blindly sheep their town reads (I never do) but cause like they could be the second cultist trying to make their CL look good so make sure you have valid reasons for each of your Townreads.

This read way too honest for me. This reads to me like Drapion had a plan to be TR’d early and Drapion is one of those too honest scum that doesn’t know yet how to highlight which points of scum to highlight and which not. This makes me think that Drapion will have never voted the cult leader.

Yeah no. That assessment is actually made out of thin air. All rests on the unsubstantiated "Drapion is one of those too honest scum"; and even if it was honest it might have been something Drapion wanted to

avoid doing

because they knew it.

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

This is some next level BS because this rests on "there was a bus" which we have no credible evidence for. It took a lot for Drapion to be limmed.
The "elements is town" case is, again, made out of thin air.

Yes.
One of my voters are definitely a cult and I think it’s Math.

This very much reads to me like Drapion’s CL had the intention of converting me and then driving that bus into the ground. Let’s look at the prior post Drapion had.

Why would Math assume that the CL would try to convert them? Maybe because it succeeded?

Now comes the question of who Roden would convert.

If they tried me and failed they would know they would need to buddy me. Especially if they think I am the inconvertible Townie.

This really matches his open and why I wanted to back off and give space to see if someone else was a convert target.

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

VOTE: Roden

This is again, Math's scum bullshit mode meta.
This rests on the assumption that Roden failed to convert(something that is not likely from the position of a VT). It also rests on "no one else has been converted".

If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.

The one exception is maybe Frederick because imho that PoE is terrible.

Backed up by exactly nothing.

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

We have to remove the CL. So this is a soft defense of Elements.
That isn't the only telling thing though, here!
Remember what Math said before?

Nothing is striking me now which makes me think he failed the convert.

But if that thing would give them a bad vibe, and element isn't CL, they could be the convert, right?
However, Mathblade never backs down from that theory:

I didn't take back a read on you. Like there's nothing else to say here, what you're seeing here is a completely foreign interpretation of what actually happened.

What I'm understanding is that because I didn't unvote Hutmeil after you replaced in, you think that I scum read you as well. If that's the case, that's something I can understand. If not, I don't know what to say, I can't argue with something that I know didn't happen.

Repeating this repeatedly is toxic af to the game

I will just go after you tomorrow when we don’t flip the CL today because we cant

Well, that was not what I was expecting....
but Mathblade has spewed themselves as the convert... and Elements as Cult Leader.
Every time Mathblade said loads of massive BS it was when scum-pushing someone, with one exception. Elements.

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

This is also telling us that Elements is Mathblade's CL: Math is trying to establish a thought progression here, but on Day 1 Math said:

180 is how I form reads

Scum rarely if ever do relational reads or feel where the vibes are

So I make hypothesis and test them

I was evidently wrong on that one post (458) coming from town.
VOTE: Elements

It's amazing how someone can conf. bias themselves into a particular viewpoint. That or Fred is CL and 15 is the convert trying to get the wagon off them.

Do you have an alternative explanation? One that doesn't make your "confbias" the mudslinging it probably is?

[Not Known 15]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

Read my case on the previous page.

[Not Known 15]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

[Not Known 15]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amount

Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.

[Not Known 15]

This is a prod dodge as I have work stuff.

I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed. Will discuss later.

Rest I haven’t read

This is a scummy post.

[Not Known 15]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amount

Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.

See: My scumcase of Mathblade day 1

Looked at it. That is a playstyle clash with a bit of tunnelling on Math's part. An 1v1 with tunnely behaviour is not the same as pushing multiple BS reads(their scumreads, and the Elements townread).

[Not Known 15]

This is a prod dodge as I have work stuff.

I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed. Will discuss later.

Rest I haven’t read

This is a scummy post.

how?

Me:Scumcase against Math,pointing to Elements as scum, too.
Math:"I think the argument I am the recruit is horribly flawed "
Does this look like a town reaction to you?

[Not Known 15]

Oh nvm, Elements. That's why they couldn't see it.

[Not Known 15]

Why are there so many blank votes? And what's the case on Elements?

Well, that was 521 by Not Known 15.

You seem to have read it. Why don't you agree?

[Not Known 15]

Not Known 15, why did you think ProfessorDrapion is the Cult Leader in day 1?

Drapion was very hedgy Day 1. I attributed this to a cult leader. There were multiple people with questionable... wait a moment I need to check something very important.

[Not Known 15]

But the Cult leader will not play like a normal cult member. And Drapion checks a lot of boxes there with the early play and meg's hedging on Drapion, elements terrible reactions to my drapion hedging early case and the follow up read, and, actually, your own reluctance to vote Drapion after what you said, they all point in the same direction. Unless there is no cult in Elements/MegAzumarill/MathBlade then Drapion is Cult, and if Drapion is Cult then very likely Cult Leader. And yes, on day 1 you actually should CL hunt; just a 50%chance of someone being Cult leader and 50% of being town Day 1 is a far superior option to someone with 33% chance of being CL/other cult/town.

So, like I said... very likely CL.(but in this case cultist instead)
But Math... everything we non-CL read Math for happened after this so it could have been staged. Need to look more when I have time.

[Not Known 15]

Ok, no. Drapion was pushing Math too much, including at E-1. Way too much risk if Math was CL.
So it's now indeed between Mala and Elements

That's what Math says about Mala.

Roden and Malakittens are the only viable suspects that meet all the criteria from Drapions play. However I find the soft defenses of Drapion much more compelling as a CL candidate..

MegAzumarill — eliminated as CL
Malakittens
Roden
MathBlade — me not scum
Elements — established unlikely
ProfessorDrapion — Flipped cult
Fredrick A Campbell
Gamma Emerald — established unlikely
Not Known 15 — established unlikely

This is the pool I see for possible CLs right now.

I strongly disagree with taking Roden out of this pool.

However if after my case you find that Roden is not the CL I will vote somewhere else in my pool.

Possible CL pool to me

As I said will move on but I really think Roden is cult here

and this.


Contrasting, elements...

I kinda think Elements makes a good CL but the fact I wasn’t culted means scum might hope I tunnel elements.

I kinda want to see how people open.

OR Math was converted and Elements is scum. This is coming after Math pushing Elements Day 1, and saying (Day 1):

180 is how I form reads

I do actually like Elements too but nothing that makes me say “yeah this is town”
But I do think Gamma/Elements are not both aligned together so if Gamma flips wolf then I think Elements is just town.
Although I guess if Gamma isn’t the CL then the CL could convert Elements and no longer make them town but my point is I don’t think they are ever starting wolves.

I think furthermore if my theory that Gamma isn’t CL is correct because of the vote then it’s likely Elements isn’t either because I don’t see any evidence of a planned bus. Maybe a planned conversion of Elements later but this really reads as TMI.

That's a BS reading of this. If (TOWN) flips wolf then (SCUMPARTNER) is town is a classic move to drive attention away from (SCUMPARTNER) for a day, making them survive more(which can be absolutely critical if that scumpartner is CL!), and that assumes that Gamma does go down. It's early day stuff.

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

Agreed on bad vibe. I don’t think Elements can be CL though

But if a wagon forms again with TRs I will follow onto it like Drapion

Mainly I kinda don’t think any wagon except Fred is on a potential CL candidate though :/

So I am just blah.

This was part of the stuff why Math is scum - their "logic" makes no sense at all, first saying "probably no convert", then "Bad vibes but probably not CL", and then continuing pushing Roden backed by the now obsolete argument "probably no convert". That is stitched together instead of natural progression.
And that also means that "bad vibes but probably not CL" is a defense, and guess why.

Now I am going to do votecount analysis.

[Not Known 15]

Hmmmmmmmmm votecounts.

VOTE: frederick e campbell
ok this is actually scum
mala vote is cheap, sus on me is cheap too

Makes me think math could be CL

Yeah honestly I can see it from how Math has went about me and how he brought up Gamma, and the town read, plus indirectly trying to get players to vote for me.

Yeah that could actually be CL and Gamma is trying to save it.
Yeah I hope this flips CL so I can just bury Gamma tomorrow.

VOTE: MathBlade

Was this planned? Is this SvS? Let me think about this a bit.

[Not Known 15]

(This is the E-1 vote on Math; the previous Math vote was E-2 from Elements. So this is either a power move or my theory about Math is wrong.

[Not Known 15]

VOTE: Malakittens
I got a very bad feeling about limming Elements atm.

[Not Known 15]

E-1.

[Not Known 15]

I feel like I'm falling off a bit this game, sorry

I don't want to vote Elements because of their D1 play and interactions with other players, I just don't get the vibe that they're the CL. However I don't really have a compelling case besides my vibe read. Meanwhile NK15's case seems genuine, it clashes with my read but I think I could just be wrong on Elements. NK15 is town by meta, so I'm willing to follow him here since I do feel like Mala's been townier today anyway.

VOTE: Elements

I think Fred is CL and has recruited either Rodan or 15

Kill
Elly yet??

VOTE: Malakittens
I got a very bad feeling about limming Elements atm.

why the sudden change of heart?
UNVOTE:

While I'm also curious same can be said to you here

Why the unvote?

Hmmmmmmmmm votecounts.

VOTE: frederick e campbell
ok this is actually scum
mala vote is cheap, sus on me is cheap too

Makes me think math could be CL

Yeah honestly I can see it from how Math has went about me and how he brought up Gamma, and the town read, plus indirectly trying to get players to vote for me.

Yeah that could actually be CL and Gamma is trying to save it.
Yeah I hope this flips CL so I can just bury Gamma tomorrow.

VOTE: MathBlade

Was this planned? Is this SvS? Let me think about this a bit.

I would highly doubt it

Maths refutation of my case gives me doubt.
What Meg said gives me doubt about Drap/Elements.
And Roden, with that reaction, could be easily the convert to Malakittens.
My townread Campbell is voting Mala over Elements.
The reaction "VT" could come from resigned CL, but Elements doesn't look resigned.
I've got a bad feeling I should change course, which I usually have before town gets limmed with my help.

[Not Known 15]

What specifically gives you doubt?

All of these together.

[Not Known 15]

What specifically gives you doubt?

All of these together.

My refutation of your case gives you doubt? Why? What about it?

That answer about tunneling and why you still CL read Roden. It's believable, at least.

[Not Known 15]

That case is fine, and part of why mala is in my poe.

[Not Known 15]

Why don't you want mala to be limmed, Math?

[Not Known 15]

I actually am still not sure about Not Known 15's allignment because I think that 伊's posts are the sort I myself have no problem making as mafia.

To be clear I think Elements is town but I am not like OMG scream it sure.

Can you compress your towncase on elements into a single post?

[Not Known 15]

And the case on Malakittens?

[Not Known 15]

Not exposing us to more risk than absolutely necessary and mutually agreed upon.

What's more risky: Forcing a claim that doesn't cause much trouble in 2/3 of the possible setups(JK is likely useless after CL has been limmed, which needs to happen until day 3 pretty much every time anyways, and an Unrecruitable Townie claim this day means the other one claims, and then we have either the exact scumteam including 1 PR convert or two townies) or not eliminating correctly if we know that the CL absolutely CAN recruit next night (unless interfered with) and that this will extremely likely result in lim CL or lose, and does not allow a near autowin in the majority of the situations.

[Not Known 15]

Limming CL now is an autowin in the cop setup without a cop convert
Limming CL now is not an autowin in the JK setup because the JK cannot be trusted, but 6:1 Nightless is still very good.
Limming CL now is an autowin in the 2x Unrecruitable Townie setup.

If we get to Day 3, unless there was no convert on Night 1 and/or Night 2, we have 3 cult trying to stop a CL lim.
Including one that was town and might be trusted.
Limming CL then is likely a win in the cop setup if the cop isn't converted,
but in the JK or converted person setup, it's not so good.
And 2x Unrecruitable is no longer an autowin and actually allows an Unrecruitable fakeclaim.

[Not Known 15]

To be clear some/most of it is likely true

It’s garbage in the sheer fact it’s antitown and doesn’t help.

You said that we shouldn't switch to Mala because claims would be terrible.
I refuted it, and you say that some/most of my refutation is likely true....
and then you say "it's antitown and doesn't help".
How does that make sense? If my refutation can help us go past your refuted argument that making Mala claim would be not worth the risk if we aren't absolutely sure that elements was town then that helps town.

[Not Known 15]

Anyone else think that Fred is just sort of sitting here agreeing with things but not actually doing anything beyond that or is that just me being tunnel visioned?

It's not just you but it isn't scum indicative. Not with his POE.

[Not Known 15]

To be clear some/most of it is likely true

It’s garbage in the sheer fact it’s antitown and doesn’t help.

You said that we shouldn't switch to Mala because claims would be terrible.
I refuted it, and you say that some/most of my refutation is likely true....
and then you say "it's antitown and doesn't help".
How does that make sense? If my refutation can help us go past your refuted argument that making Mala claim would be not worth the risk if we aren't absolutely sure that elements was town then that helps town.

You did not “refute it”

You said a lot of irrelevant mech spec.

The irrelevant mech spec is antitown and causes apathy.

You just ignored my points and said a lot of mech that didn’t address the heart of what I am saying.

I encourage you to step away and reread what I said.

That mech spec says why switching to Mala is not as a great risk as Math claims it to be.
That Math dismisses mech spec like this is not his town meta.
I personally witnessed it as his scum meta, though. When he was desperate. And Math being desperate and scum can mean only one thing. Mala is CL.

[Not Known 15]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

Only at first glance.
If scum acts the CL dies tomorrow, then the scum dies the next, and Cult has a maximum of one person remaining.
4:1 Nightless, with a converted Cop/JK is the best they can get there.
4:1 Nightless Vanilla has a 60% town win rate.
If scum doesn't act the CL has a 50% chance to die today and a 50% chance to not die today and probably not tomorrow.
We cannot distinguish between that and T/T. This doesn't help us!

[Not Known 15]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

Post says “Assume Mala VT”
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”

Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur

Yes, yes. I mean there is also that - if Mala is VT - then the scumteam knows who is VT and who not.... except there is this:
If Mala is VT, and there are two unrecruitables, and scum looks in non-VT then that's good for us.
If Mala is VT, and there is a JK, then, unless the JK stopped/stops 2 recruits, tomorrow is the last day to catch CL and the JK isn't useful after that time.
If Mala is VT, and there is a Cop, then the a chance of conversion will have gone up.
In total, there is obviously a risk, but not as bad as Math claims.

[Not Known 15]

Oh, fine. It isn't happening.VOTE: Elements

[Not Known 15]

Cop here.
Night 1: Campbell town.
Night 2: Mathblade town.

[Not Known 15]

@NK why the hammer swap?

Because of the alternatives, and Campbell.
Malakittens just didn't have the votes behind it. Campbell said:

I am not sure Elements is town. I agree with MathBlade that we should find Elements guilty if we are not sure whether Elements is town.

Campbell was also at Malakittens at that time.
Meg(previously voting Mala) had switched to Elements.
My arguments didn't convince anyone present, including Campbell.
The Mala wagon had not sufficient backing behind it.
So, either Elements would have succeeded anyways, or, if not, it would have most likely been derailed into myself or my inno, Campbell.

[Not Known 15]

Would you vote Mala now?

No. If I was wrong about Mala being CL the cult would just pile on and we would lose. We need to find the CL. I need to go and re-read everything to look what I missed, with the knowledge that you and Elements are town.

[Not Known 15]

Would you vote Mala now?

No. If I was wrong about Mala being CL the cult would just pile on and we would lose. We need to find the CL. I need to go and re-read everything to look what I missed, with the knowledge that you and Elements are town.

What changed to make Mala CL yesterday but not today?

Well, you are confirmed town.
I still think it is likely Mala. But I need to make sure this is really the right answer and not confbias , and if I am wrong and I vote Mala gets quickhammered.
Also, with you being town I now know that your arguments didn't come from scum. I'll look into this tomorrow, when I have more time.

[Not Known 15]

Life's a bit hectic atm but I'll do what I can to post.

Not shocked at all by the Cop claim, NK15 was pretty openly soft claiming it yesterday. If I saw it then the Cult definitely saw it, and I feel pretty confident that him claiming to have checked Math last night just means he got recruited. Math doesn't make sense as a Cop check, nobody really thought he was the CL on D2 and NK15 had instead heavily suspected Mala. I don't think it makes any sense to want to elim Mala yesterday but then Cop check a consensus town read. Though it makes perfect sense to do so as a Cult recruit, because telling us that a town read is town is better than claiming anything about Mala's alignment.

To be fair I agree I am a horrible cop check.

So your NK15 culted N2 does make sense in isolation but I don’t think such a fake claim comes unless it’s well thought out and planned and designed. It could also be that NK15 was being selfish in checking me.

There’s a lot of what ifs and maybe NK15 can clear it up.

Because what I am thinking is 3/4ths of NK15/Roden/Meg/Mala are scum and one has to be town.

You were

not

a horrible cop check.
Many of my theories at least partially rested on you being converted Night 1. Going over your actions, however, on Night 2 again, you pretty much softed that you could be an Unrecrutiable Townie so you were unlikely to be converted Night 2. Malakittens, on the other hand, could have been converted Night 1 if you weren't; or even Night 2 to make them want to yeet themselves if the CL was in danger.
A Mala check Night 2 would have not shown me what I needed. I needed to know if you were town, however, because I knew you were extremely likely NOT the CL.

I think I will have time to do my re-read later today.

[Not Known 15]

NGL

i thought Campbell was the cop and that’s why i was against the lim yesterday

I'll be working with the assumption that Not Known 15's claim is accurate.

This makes MathBlade not Cult Leader.

Roden's 213 is actually a very good point. I don't believe Roden would have made that post as Cult Leader.

Currently think MegAzumarill's posts don't tell me whether or not they are Cult Leader.

So, Malakittens thought that Campbell was town cop...
And Campbell's first post doesn't even mention Mala, and Mala should have been definitely worth a mention as Mala was a top scumread of Campbell yesterday.

[Not Known 15]

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

Shhh math
Don’t drink the wine
It’s not good for u

This exchange was what I missed when ISO ing.
Why would town!mala even make this post? Malakittens is making short contributions that indicate lack of time, and as town this is no good because it is a weak townclear on themselves mala attacks with no scumhunting value behind it.
As scum this makes little sense either except as an instinctive reaction to a

false

statement. I've looked at meg but the Meg/drapion exchanges do not look s/s to me.

[Not Known 15]

Vote Count 2.07

Malakittens (3):

MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell, Not Known 15

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden

Roden (1):

MathBlade

Not Voting (1):

Elements

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

The only team that works for Mala CL to me is Johnny/NK15/Roden.

I don’t see how that team works.

But at the end of Day 2 there were only one CL and one recruit alive.

[Not Known 15]

I feel like I'm falling off a bit this game, sorry

I don't want to vote Elements because of their D1 play and interactions with other players, I just don't get the vibe that they're the CL. However I don't really have a compelling case besides my vibe read. Meanwhile NK15's case seems genuine, it clashes with my read but I think I could just be wrong on Elements. NK15 is town by meta, so I'm willing to follow him here since I do feel like Mala's been townier today anyway.

VOTE: Elements

Roden could be the Night 1 convert.

Mala CL, Drapion Cultist, Roden Night 1 convert, Campbell Night 2 convert. This seems to fit.

[Not Known 15]

Math, what do you think?

[Not Known 15]

Life's a bit hectic atm but I'll do what I can to post.

Not shocked at all by the Cop claim, NK15 was pretty openly soft claiming it yesterday. If I saw it then the Cult definitely saw it, and I feel pretty confident that him claiming to have checked Math last night just means he got recruited. Math doesn't make sense as a Cop check, nobody really thought he was the CL on D2 and NK15 had instead heavily suspected Mala. I don't think it makes any sense to want to elim Mala yesterday but then Cop check a consensus town read. Though it makes perfect sense to do so as a Cult recruit, because telling us that a town read is town is better than claiming anything about Mala's alignment.

And if this is true then Roden+Drapion->Mala would have resulted in me being converted.
But Mala+Drapion ->Roden not, because Mala thought that Campbell was Cop, which is probably true if you look at what Mala wrote yesterday.

[Not Known 15]

The big genuine-looking solving attempts today, on ELO, are coming from Meg, MathBlade, Farrar, and myself.
Which are all town if my theory is correct.

[Not Known 15]

VOTE: Malakittens

[Not Known 15]

Like I don’t like how rushed this is.

UNVOTE:
Very well. What's the alternative?

[Not Known 15]

I want to see Johnny/Fred and Roden and Mala give actual reads before we vote.

Because if that’s the team no matter how improbable I feel that is then they need to give reads.

I don’t think Mala who has been inactive overrides Roden as to who the cop is. Which makes NK15 not culted odd in an NK15 town world.

I am trying to figure out mechanically how things work.

The solutions I have either work by play but require mech actions out of character for the party
Or mech actions that work but don’t match play.

Mala not overriding Roden? But if Mala is CL then recruitment is her decision alone. It makes Roden CL unlikely, but not Mala CL.

[Not Known 15]

I want to see Johnny/Fred and Roden and Mala give actual reads before we vote.

Because if that’s the team no matter how improbable I feel that is then they need to give reads.

I don’t think Mala who has been inactive overrides Roden as to who the cop is. Which makes NK15 not culted odd in an NK15 town world.

I am trying to figure out mechanically how things work.

The solutions I have either work by play but require mech actions out of character for the party
Or mech actions that work but don’t match play.

Mala not overriding Roden? But if Mala is CL then recruitment is her decision alone. It makes Roden CL unlikely, but not Mala CL.

Mala and Roden if Roden was recruited N1 would have had a night chat (op says day chat but night chat is standard) this means if Roden was scum in that world Roden would have said “Convert NK15 he is the cop because (reason). Mala would have had to disregard this despite her claim she’s hella busy.”

The argument doesn’t line up. So I want to solve that discongruence

Hella busy or not, Mala did think that Fred was PR at least. But I guess with Mala being busy it's also possible that she missed the Night 1 convert and it is just her and Fred.

[Not Known 15]

What do you think the chances are of CL!Mala self-voting here vs notCL!Mala?

My working theory is Mala is CL and their team is in decent shape even if they go down. It's still not ideal that they go down, but nobody's going to outright defend them in the cult because we'd make Shor work of then when Mala flipped.

A similar theory is also what I have in mind. If these people would suddenly start defending Mala it would make a Mala lim more, not less likely, and what you said is also true.
They can still try to get me limmed tomorrow. But obviously you shouldn't lim me tomorrow before I announce my result, at least!

[Not Known 15]

VOTE: Malakittens

[Not Known 15]

I believe that Malakittens is most likely the Cult Leader. Here's what I will be doing. Looking at every other player and estimating how likely the hypotheses that the player is Cult Leader is.

I propose other players attempt to do the same. The player which is most likely Cult Leader should be the best choice from your perspective.

Fred also would be on Mala as cult leader. So odds are either A) Scum planned a cult leader bus since only I and maybe Roden are against or B) Mala isn’t cult leader

If it’s A) Scum don’t need me you have the numbers. But it’s more than likely B

How about C)Mala is cult leader but scum cannot(or feel that they cannot) push against a mala lim because their best bet is to generate the type of paranoia you currently suffer from and defending mala would make the scumteam obvious.

[Not Known 15]

Maybe the current team is Malakittens, Not Known 15 and MegAzumarill.

Only a cult member will be this comfortable throwing votes out like this because they know the cult isn't going to step in and quickhammer because they are part of the cult.

In addition to that, the execution of a cult member will automatically lead us to a loss. This suggests that Malakittens isn't the cult leader but just a recruit, while either of Not Known 15 or MegAzumarill is the actual cult leader.

I personally think Not Known 15 is the cult leader as MegAzumarill is just a lot less likely considering 伊's play on day 1.

I personally think Not Known 15 is the cult leader

I don't know how that would work with him claimed cop?

It’s work if the actual power role was culted.

Indeed, it would only then.
And now look at Campbell's claim that the team is meg, me and mala. Do you really think , if that were true, that the team is Mala, Meg, and myself, that Mala is not CL, and the PR converted at night, the game would play out like that? Campbells case is extremely shallow. There's nothing behind it but a scum who knows that a mala lim leads to certain defeat if you trust me afterwards and to very unfavourable odds even if you don't.

[Not Known 15]

NK did you crumb?

I did defend my Night 1 inno.
I very much deliberately hid my identity otherwise.

[Not Known 15]

NK did you crumb?

I did defend my Night 1 inno.
I very much deliberately hid my identity otherwise.

Was that Fred?

Yes.

[Not Known 15]

I want to see Johnny/Fred and Roden and Mala give actual reads before we vote.

Because if that’s the team no matter how improbable I feel that is then they need to give reads.

I don’t think Mala who has been inactive overrides Roden as to who the cop is. Which makes NK15 not culted odd in an NK15 town world.

I am trying to figure out mechanically how things work.

The solutions I have either work by play but require mech actions out of character for the party
Or mech actions that work but don’t match play.

Mala not overriding Roden? But if Mala is CL then recruitment is her decision alone. It makes Roden CL unlikely, but not Mala CL.

Mala and Roden if Roden was recruited N1 would have had a night chat (op says day chat but night chat is standard) this means if Roden was scum in that world Roden would have said “Convert NK15 he is the cop because (reason). Mala would have had to disregard this despite her claim she’s hella busy.”

The argument doesn’t line up. So I want to solve that discongruence

I just thought at this again. Mala thought Campbell was cop. Roden thought I was cop. The argument adds up if you add that Roden thought that I was cop because of my handling of my Campbell townread. Because then Mala might have assumed that I wasn't the cop but saw the same as she apparently did.

[Not Known 15]

If you’re recruited N1 then NK15 likely the recruit for cop unless you were full of shit about noticing the crumb but knowing you I doubt it.

Fred can’t be N1, so can’t be CL

So looking at Johnny or Meg CL

I am gonna be so sad if it’s Meg.

Is it?

I'm town.

[Not Known 15]

If roden was recruited Night 1 then they purposefully didn't recruit the cop.

[Not Known 15]

Well done.