Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Elements

Bonjour

[MegAzumarill]

Well they would be "Known 15" if they had a picture

[MegAzumarill]

That would only be true if we mis-elim today. On the other hand, if we kill the Leader today then town gets like, five more chances to kill the second cultist. So it's a bit swingy.

The cult cannot afford to lose the CL today at all; it is a win in 7 of all 9 setups and a de facto 7:1 Nightless with 1 IC in the JK setups without FN. That's definitely something to look for.

As opposed to not killing Cult today and its suddenly 5:3 nightless with a big asterix next to the clears.
Very unstable positioning today.

[MegAzumarill]

The vote was because they had no picture.
MegAzumaril gave there lack of picture a mysterious reason.
Now the lack of picture becomes meaningful, undermining my reason to vote.
Hence unvote

VOTE: Roden

Do you usually move your vote this often early on?

[MegAzumarill]

I mean I don't think it's a CL vibe rn

[MegAzumarill]

why not?

Feels too attention heavy than CLs like to play which isn't really solid but enough for for the time being

[MegAzumarill]

ez pagetop steal

[MegAzumarill]

I agree with the early read on Elements, CL probably just does their best to fade into the background D1.

Or purposely doesn't do that to avoid being limmed. Not a reliable reasoning.

The soft discredit here doesn't sit well with me

Do you think this is the way CL would try to be in the open? I feel there are better routes for that.

[MegAzumarill]

I think MegAzumarill and Gamma Emerald are just town

I can see Meg, I didn’t like Gamma’s vote on you.

Why do you see me as town here?

[MegAzumarill]

I think MegAzumarill and Gamma Emerald are just town

I can see Meg, I didn’t like Gamma’s vote on you.

Why do you see me as town here?

Same goes for elements tbh

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Not Known 15

[MegAzumarill]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

[MegAzumarill]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

I’m presuming you Null Scum read me?

More closer to just pure null, I do like some of your post here.

[MegAzumarill]

Above The Line

Roden
ProfessorDrapion
Not Known 15
Fredrick A Campbell
MegAzumarill
------------------------------------ The Line
Gamma Emerald
hutmeil
Malakittens

Below The Line

Why is gamma below the line?

[MegAzumarill]

But you have Roden as your top pick?
What about gamma's push on drapion did you dislike as compared to roden?

[MegAzumarill]

Ok that makes more sense, although question still stands of the difference

[MegAzumarill]

I fully disagree with your thoughts on Drapion. I don't think they're hedging anything.

What, really? Ok... it's probably elements and cult leader Drapion then, the hedging is really obvious.

Not sure if you are serious here
What are your reads so far?

[MegAzumarill]

I think Gamma is town. This reads as solving much more than aggressive scum to me here.

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

[MegAzumarill]

That post was written before I saw yours but I don't think it hugely changes things

[MegAzumarill]

Drapion feels.... weirdly tunneled here. I don't think scum!drapion does this here in a vacuum (especially CL!drapion), but this push feels too off to me for me to call it town.

Drapion is there some context here I might be missing for your Gamma read?

[MegAzumarill]

A good word for it may be disproportionate

[MegAzumarill]

Drapion feels.... weirdly tunneled here. I don't think scum!drapion does this here in a vacuum (especially CL!drapion), but this push feels too off to me for me to call it town.

Drapion is there some context here I might be missing for your Gamma read?

What’s off about my push on Gamma exactly?
Do you not think I bring up good points for my push?

A lot of it puts justification to their actions IF they are scum, but it misses WHY they are scum and not town.

Unless I'm missing something it looks like Gamma is scum is the assumption you started with here

[MegAzumarill]

Howdy Reading now.

I am so glad to be town for once.

To that end kinda wanna see where everyone’s head’s at:

Meg: Long time no see. Who is your top town and scum read?

Mala: Is this it? The fabled game where we are both town and alive?

Roden: What are your vibes of the game so far?

Elements: Don’t know you that well. What’s your favorite thing about the game so far?

Campbell: Looks like your a strategy guy. Do you have a plan now or more just thinking mechanics?

Gamma: Nice work in the theme game. Gonna see if you have similar vibes. Any strong reads/feels?

NK15: Got any spicy thoughts? Usually you are good but tend to be drowned out so hope you see this and drop a spicy thought or read.

Elements I think is town. I've been either a fan of their posts so far or feel like they are +town.

Biggest scumread is NK15 for the reasons I have mentioned.

[MegAzumarill]

I agree with the early read on Elements, CL probably just does their best to fade into the background D1.

I kinda think maybe Meg (if Elements is scum) as a good CL or Drapion. If Elements is town.

I think certain players play scum and therefore different.

Still catching up but I don’t get Meg’s posting re elements

What do you dislike about it? I feel Elements is speaking their mind here and not trying to blend in. It seems pretty genuine but I suppose that's mostly *vibes at this point

[MegAzumarill]

*visible confusion

[MegAzumarill]

That would only be true if we mis-elim today. On the other hand, if we kill the Leader today then town gets like, five more chances to kill the second cultist. So it's a bit swingy.

The cult cannot afford to lose the CL today at all; it is a win in 7 of all 9 setups and a de facto 7:1 Nightless with 1 IC in the JK setups without FN. That's definitely something to look for.

As opposed to not killing Cult today and its suddenly 5:3 nightless with a big asterix next to the clears.
Very unstable positioning today.

.. I very much don’t like this.

Fear mongering like this tends to stick in people’s minds and is a common trick of scum.

Instead we need positivity.

We have some of the best town hunters in the game.

So I think we can hit scum.

Do you disagree with the notion we must be more proactive today for discussion as opposed to a normal mafia game? Do you disagree with my setup analysis here? I don't see how this is possibly fearmongering or even what end it would acheive if it was.

[MegAzumarill]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

This reads informed Drapion is town.
Drapion had weird wording last game I was with him.

I think it’s NAI

VOTE: Not Known 15

Yeah

I can definitely see Cult not wanting to be on me.

These also don't make sense/aren't explained respectively.

Overall this feel really contrived

[MegAzumarill]

Well the point is to avoid that through being more proactive today? I'm trying to be and I feel that's the logical next step to take with that information. "Mislims are more impactful today" It's the same reason people consider things more in depth in ELO situations.

It feels like it would have the opposite effect than you described, and that was my point

[MegAzumarill]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

This reads informed Drapion is town.
Drapion had weird wording last game I was with him.

I think it’s NAI

VOTE: Not Known 15

Yeah

I can definitely see Cult not wanting to be on me.

These also don't make sense/aren't explained respectively.

Overall this feel really contrived

First post is pretty straightforward

Gamma’s push on Drapion (and some Roden but mostly Gamma) is about word choice.
I was providing a counter example.
I think it’s NAI
But I don’t scumread anyone on the wagon so I am not like OMG no

The latter is simple
I am a top wagon
Tons of people are inactive yet random dogpile indicates scum
Second vote is usually scum and I already scumread Elements

1. My point is the informed of drapion part feels weird. Maybe I still don't get you here but the post reads to me like "Your post feels like TMI. I made the same conclusion" which obviously isn't your intent.

2. I wasn't voting NK15 for being inactive though? I specifically stated I had gripes with a post they made. Like I didn't vote you but why would I?

[MegAzumarill]

Well the point is to avoid that through being more proactive today? I'm trying to be and I feel that's the logical next step to take with that information. "Mislims are more impactful today" It's the same reason people consider things more in depth in ELO situations.

It feels like it would have the opposite effect than you described, and that was my point

Then don’t try. Just be.

Sure we could end up with all town elims and lose but now people are thinking about it.

There’s no reason to be negative right now.

I think people do consider stuff more in-depth in elo

Right now is about social reads though not mechanical ones.

Trying to force continuous elo is sketchy for no good reason.

If we have an elo situation then it can be addressed

I'm not being negative? This whole conversation feels very divorced from the original point.

[MegAzumarill]

Ima sleep on this catchup but reads scum motivated to me. I don't like how the preflips were handeled some points feel contrived or easy to make as scum. It's very much an entrance to try to make a motion and I don't think that motion favors town


Would not be surprised one bit if it was Math/NK here

[MegAzumarill]

Drapion looks noncommittal here on read on me but I don't think I'd expect town here to be completely commited.
Still not a fan of it

Drapion does look noncommittal (agreeing/egging Gamma on)
But I don’t think you’d expect town here to be completely committed

It’s a cognitive dissonance.

If you think he’s scum then you’d just vote Drapion.

But instead you agree and say he’s town for no good reason or say you don’t expect him to be town and don’t vote him

But “not a fan”

It’s hard to tell if you made a grammar issue and meant to say you think Drapion is town (how I took it)
Or you continue to think Drap is scum but then random not a fan and no action

It’s just feels like you know Drapion is town with the inaction.

I'm saying in general it's a scummy thing but in this situation it would be reasonable for town to do it? If both alignments would do it it's by definition NAI. The "not a fan" is saying that I don't townread them for it.

[MegAzumarill]

Ima sleep on this catchup but reads scum motivated to me. I don't like how the preflips were handeled some points feel contrived or easy to make as scum. It's very much an entrance to try to make a motion and I don't think that motion favors town


Would not be surprised one bit if it was Math/NK here

Why?

What motivation is there?

I am not asking people to vote me.

I already pointed out that you’re too chicken shit to do so.

This says some points are “easy”.

Are they “easy” or confusing?

I don’t have any preflips in my arguments.

I have reads. The closest thing you could say to preflip is if Elements is scum and if elements is town then etc.

That’s just SvT/TVS things people do.

In particular this was the preflip I didn't like. Perhaps a bad term for it.

VOTE: MegAzumarill

Spicy I like this

You can have a TR if Meg is scum.

By easy I refer to posts like 190 which would be an easy discrepancy to spot from scum you but otherwise I don't have a problem with.

[MegAzumarill]

Anyway I do actually need to sleep

[MegAzumarill]

(Mathblade)

I want Meg to vote for someone who she scumreads which she hasn’t.

wat

I think Gamma is town. This reads as solving much more than aggressive scum to me here.

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

Howdy Reading now.

I am so glad to be town for once.

To that end kinda wanna see where everyone’s head’s at:

Meg: Long time no see. Who is your top town and scum read?

Mala: Is this it? The fabled game where we are both town and alive?

Roden: What are your vibes of the game so far?

Elements: Don’t know you that well. What’s your favorite thing about the game so far?

Campbell: Looks like your a strategy guy. Do you have a plan now or more just thinking mechanics?

Gamma: Nice work in the theme game. Gonna see if you have similar vibes. Any strong reads/feels?

NK15: Got any spicy thoughts? Usually you are good but tend to be drowned out so hope you see this and drop a spicy thought or read.

Elements I think is town. I've been either a fan of their posts so far or feel like they are +town.

Biggest scumread is NK15 for the reasons I have mentioned.

Vote Count 1.04

I've been waiting for her for so long
Open the sky and let her come down

MathBlade (3):

Roden, Elements, Fredrick A Campbell

Gamma Emerald (2):

Malakittens, ProfessorDrapion

ProfessorDrapion (2):

Not Known 15, Gamma Emerald

Not Known 15 (1):

MegAzumarill

Roden (1):

MathBlade

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is September 28 at 11:00 AM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-09-28 11:00:00)

[MegAzumarill]

(Mathblade)

I want Meg to vote for someone who she scumreads which she hasn’t.

wat

I think Gamma is town. This reads as solving much more than aggressive scum to me here.

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

Howdy Reading now.

I am so glad to be town for once.

To that end kinda wanna see where everyone’s head’s at:

Meg: Long time no see. Who is your top town and scum read?

Mala: Is this it? The fabled game where we are both town and alive?

Roden: What are your vibes of the game so far?

Elements: Don’t know you that well. What’s your favorite thing about the game so far?

Campbell: Looks like your a strategy guy. Do you have a plan now or more just thinking mechanics?

Gamma: Nice work in the theme game. Gonna see if you have similar vibes. Any strong reads/feels?

NK15: Got any spicy thoughts? Usually you are good but tend to be drowned out so hope you see this and drop a spicy thought or read.

Elements I think is town. I've been either a fan of their posts so far or feel like they are +town.

Biggest scumread is NK15 for the reasons I have mentioned.

Vote Count 1.04

I've been waiting for her for so long
Open the sky and let her come down

MathBlade (3):

Roden, Elements, Fredrick A Campbell

Gamma Emerald (2):

Malakittens, ProfessorDrapion

ProfessorDrapion (2):

Not Known 15, Gamma Emerald

Not Known 15 (1):

MegAzumarill

Roden (1):

MathBlade

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is September 28 at 11:00 AM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-09-28 11:00:00)

EbWOP

[MegAzumarill]

I'm still waiting on their response to my orignal push on them. Or frankly most people haven't responded to the push yet.
I don't see the value in trying to get them elimmed this moment as compared to after a response

[MegAzumarill]

Unless you're asking me to blindy try and cause an elim whenever I have a scumread which I have problems with

[MegAzumarill]

But claiming I am not voting a scumread or taking a stance is objectively untrue

[MegAzumarill]

I'm still waiting on their response to my orignal push on them. Or frankly most people haven't responded to the push yet.
I don't see the value in trying to get them elimmed this moment as compared to after a response

Then make them.

Instead you’re content on me or Drapion wagons which if you’re right on NK15 one has to be wrong.

You’re way too passive

How many posta has nk15 made since i posted thay push?

My count is 0

WTF else do you want? That's like the last thing that happened before you showed up

[MegAzumarill]

Unless you're asking me to blindy try and cause an elim whenever I have a scumread which I have problems with

That’s what town tries to do!

Elim scum.

They sure as hell don’t go

“X is scum”

Then ignore it until someone else cares to respond

Are you reading my posts? What makes you think I have the confidence to say that someone is definitely scum? If anything the responses are often more useful to determine alignment than the actual pushes reasons a lot of the time.

You sound like you're asking me to willingly detract from the flow of information

[MegAzumarill]

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

This is not enough to avoid the content in the thread. What do you think of Drapion? of Gamma? of me?

You literally edited out the part of my post that answered your question of gamma

[MegAzumarill]

There is no world where this obfuscation and is done out of good faith. Even when proven objectively wrong all Math is doing is moving the goalposts. This is either desperation or refuge in audacity and I shall have neither.
VOTE: Mathblade

[MegAzumarill]

In post 138, MegAzumarill wrote:
I think Gamma is town. This reads as solving much more than aggressive scum to me here.

[MegAzumarill]

I do believe Math is at E-1.

[MegAzumarill]

Ok even better

[MegAzumarill]

??? I need to step away. Because now you’re voting me and don’t want me on L-1?

This doesn’t make sense at all

No rush to end the day

[MegAzumarill]

Also, don’t like Meg’a interactions w Math

Not really sure what I'm supposed to do when being majorly misrepped but sure

[MegAzumarill]

It's a clear case of constantly moving the goalposts to justify his reads and thoughts when challenged. It's a clear sign of not having genuine desire to solve.

He spreads explicitly wrong information and tries to manipulate the information in the game, doubling down by obfuscation when pressed.

I can see how you may not see it now, heck took me a while to realize exactly what was irking me about it. Reread the interaction with that in mind, it's purely a charisma fueled wagon.

[MegAzumarill]

Mathblade

[MegAzumarill]

Hmm what If I'm wrong on Meg.
I could see them with Gamma.


Heck I could see everyone with Gamma except for Elements.

I like Elements, they are my top town.

Why do you townread Elements? Just because they don't look partnered with gamma?

[MegAzumarill]

Wasn’t it Math being like “I could see one of Drapion’s voters after Gamma being a wolf”
or am I mistaken?

Then this dude is like “If Meg is town it’s probably Drapion”

Like TF? Like a town doesn’t say it could be so and so voters and then say it’s just them.

I mean I could see Math trying to ML Meg, ML me and then ML Elements or one of my voters that isn’t Gamma.


The dude has a perfect ML setup here.

No that was me

Could do me a favor and consider the world where Gamma gets vig shot right now and flips town. Who's scum then?

[MegAzumarill]

I kinda think voting for survival is the wrong play. I could vote Drapion in the case I am wrong on Meg but kinda hedging my bets here.

I think my flip is way more helpful for the gamestate as the only reason that has been brought up is inactivity (now false) and being confusing (standard me) so *shrug*

I mean it's less confusing more disengenuous.

Also consider your two scumreads are people I know or think fairly strongly are town.

[MegAzumarill]

Wasn’t it Math being like “I could see one of Drapion’s voters after Gamma being a wolf”
or am I mistaken?

Then this dude is like “If Meg is town it’s probably Drapion”

Like TF? Like a town doesn’t say it could be so and so voters and then say it’s just them.

I mean I could see Math trying to ML Meg, ML me and then ML Elements or one of my voters that isn’t Gamma.


The dude has a perfect ML setup here.

No that was me

Could do me a favor and consider the world where Gamma gets vig shot right now and flips town. Who's scum then?

@Drapion

[MegAzumarill]

CL Math has to claim VT here so I don't think the claim is AI

[MegAzumarill]

CL Math has to claim VT here so I don't think the claim is AI

Why wouldn't he follow me on Drapion then? If he's CL it would be the best play for him. If I'm wrong on Drapion then it makes me look bad and I can be pushed tomorrow. If I'm right then he has me pocketed.

Granted...he would know I'm cautious around him and that I would look out for a potential pocket. If he's scum then he would try to play around me like he has in past games.

If I had one thing I would say concerns me. It's that he isn't trying that hard to convince me to vote with him.

I don't really see the world where Math plays like he did in his catchup as town though.

[MegAzumarill]

Roden has your read's reasonings on Drapion shifted significantly since the start of the wagon?

[MegAzumarill]

ISOing drapion looks so much different than in context.
Like it looks like a tunnelled townie until you realize, that's all there is. Basically nothing that doesn't recur to Gamma and the whole ISO is surface level.

It also strikes me as pandered toward me in a way. Following along with my mathblade push when I had been fairly vocal about being neutral overall on drapion. Strikes as trying to win me over almost. Additionally I don't really thinks his Mathblade vote makes sense from a Town!Pov if he really scumreads gamma that much. I don't really buy this as a solve.

I'll suspend some disbelief here on town!Math for now and VOTE: ProfessorDrapion

Roden has your read's reasonings on Drapion shifted significantly since the start of the wagon?

I think he's just looking worse as the game goes on. He keeps trying to scare people into doing what he wants and talking in a way that's giving tips to the cult in how they should play tonight.

I mean if mathblade does indeed flip CL i would say you'd look aligned but that's not really what they are saying I guess.

[MegAzumarill]

If you get CCed as CL your faction loses?

[MegAzumarill]

No but literally its nightless with more clears than mafia 7/9 times

[MegAzumarill]

8/9 chance of losing unless a confirmed townie is eliminated.

Like literally massclaim day 2 on a day 1 CL flip is GG

[MegAzumarill]

This setup is open right?

Wtf do you expect to do

In genuinely curious

[MegAzumarill]

What would a lone cultist have to do in day 2 massclaim to win

[MegAzumarill]

Assume a setup that isnt C2

[MegAzumarill]

8/9 chance of losing unless a confirmed townie is eliminated.

Like literally massclaim day 2 on a day 1 CL flip is GG

Fine.

Let’s pretend.

Assume mass claim d2.

Best case for town is three clears. Scum doesn’t claim PR. This is autoloss.

Worst case scum claims PR. Then no clears and have to elim in the PRs giving room for breath.

Like stop pushing this

You won’t convince me of that.

There is at most 3 PR claims, and if there is three every VT is clear.

If there is 2, and one is Cop they check the other one after 1 VT claim lim, giving two clears or a game win.

If there is 1 PR claim then they are clear and either a JK or a cop, if JK scum *can win, but as cop they create more clears.

[MegAzumarill]

Quite honestly I would make a slight tweak to the setup if CL is elimmed d1, remaining cult becomes cult leader otherwise no backup.

But what is your goal here? Does this help you read me going into this mechanic reads?

It’s just bloat

If you want to make an argument you claim a PR as CL that just isn't valid, then I will deconstruct it

[MegAzumarill]

We aren't playing Cultafia.

If CL dies no recruit, straight up no nk

[MegAzumarill]

I read the role PMs in the setup post

[MegAzumarill]

In what world is this setup balanced with recruit + nightkill

[MegAzumarill]

No but literally its nightless with more clears than mafia 7/9 times

this is accurate
bottom left or bottom right after a CL flips D1 is an autowin
any setup where town is able to conf two or more players without those confs getting recruited is gg
this setup is like, extremely reliant on the D1 flip

On reconsideration it's a 5753/5760 chance for town win in C2, and a 100% chance everywhere else

[MegAzumarill]

Mod got back to me apparently there’s no NK so Meg is town.

Still don’t like Elements.

Since I have too many TRs intent to vote Drapion.

Why does that make me town?

[MegAzumarill]

CL Math has to claim VT here so I don't think the claim is AI

Why wouldn't he follow me on Drapion then? If he's CL it would be the best play for him. If I'm wrong on Drapion then it makes me look bad and I can be pushed tomorrow. If I'm right then he has me pocketed.

Granted...he would know I'm cautious around him and that I would look out for a potential pocket. If he's scum then he would try to play around me like he has in past games.

If I had one thing I would say concerns me. It's that he isn't trying that hard to convince me to vote with him.

I don't really see the world where Math plays like he did in his catchup as town though.

lol what's so wrong with it, jeezus

will get back to this in a min

[MegAzumarill]

Of NK15/ Drapion I'd really prefer drapion. Don't really like either slot but I will say that we should not get more than one more claim today. If we get drapion to claim we do not get nk15 to follow suit (Obviously CCs excluded in this)

If we're wrong here we prefer cult shooting with their recruit significantly less knowledge

[MegAzumarill]

CL Math has to claim VT here so I don't think the claim is AI

Why wouldn't he follow me on Drapion then? If he's CL it would be the best play for him. If I'm wrong on Drapion then it makes me look bad and I can be pushed tomorrow. If I'm right then he has me pocketed.

Granted...he would know I'm cautious around him and that I would look out for a potential pocket. If he's scum then he would try to play around me like he has in past games.

If I had one thing I would say concerns me. It's that he isn't trying that hard to convince me to vote with him.

I don't really see the world where Math plays like he did in his catchup as town though.

lol what's so wrong with it, jeezus

will get back to this in a min

Okay so my big problem with Math's entrance is threefold.

1. Math's reasonings for initially scum reading me and Elements feels contrived. It's at least in part hypercriticism of an early comment by Elements and some of the points about me (i.e. the fearmongering one) feels arbitrary at best and counterintuitive to what was actually said at worst.

2. Math obfuscated when I brought up these points, changing what he was arguing each time it was addressed. This make the arguments feel weak where Math has less care about actually being right.

3. Math's opening criticized doing things integral to playing mafia and felt like taking actions out of reasonable context. A particularly egregious example was this

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

This is not enough to avoid the content in the thread. What do you think of Drapion?

of Gamma?

of me?

Which quotes from this post:

I think Gamma is town. This reads as solving much more than aggressive scum to me here.

I think there's a decent chance of scum in Roden/ Not Known. I don't like the way they handeled Gamma's push on Drapion. It felt like trying to stay off the wagon yet fuel it (implication is that Drapion is scum for playing differently than a town game) in Roden's case. In Not Known's case they seem to be on the wagon and supporting it but backing away from being a major voice there or elsewhere.

Literally copy pasting my words apart from the context that answered his question.


Are these things that town can't do - No.
Are these things that town shouldn't do - Yes.

I don't see this behavior coming from a town mindset of an experienced player.

[MegAzumarill]

Fuck it.

VOTE: drap

Bai.

Bruh

[MegAzumarill]

Well at least we aren't losing a PR. for sure. Any last thoughts Drapion? (Besides scum!gamma ofc)

[MegAzumarill]

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

Who do you think is most likely CL?

I do agree that Mala fits the bill for a recruit target though.

I mean I could see cult hammering like that when they know the slot is going over. Last second distancing was my initial impression after I saw the flip, but I prolly should reread drapion/mala ISO.

The best course of action today is aim for CL, from there we can work out the recruit. Trying to guess who got recruited is really WIFOM and once we POE the leader, we can solve from there.

(There's a good chance CL may have even failed to recruit from JK or unreq townies as well, so aiming for the recruit could be completely worthless)


Gamma, Roden, and (regrettably) Math are probably not CL in my book.

[MegAzumarill]

What do you think of Frederick, Mala?

[MegAzumarill]

If it can be achieved, I will execute Malakittens, Not Known 15 or Elements this day phase. This decision is not final.

The one exception is maybe Frederick because imho that PoE is terrible.

I don't really think so. PoE for CL is between those 3 and Fred himself for me off of associatives. Still personally think elements is town here.

I don't think CL!Roden risks a N1 cop or JK loss and doesn't really need to bus like they did eod 1.

NK15 did push Drapion a lot day 1, but there still wasn't a lot else and cult losing vanilla members isn't really disincentivised here. It also felt like a very passve push.

Mala quickhammered unnecessarily with not much in her ISO to hold her aloft. Frederick is in a similar boat although nothing stands as strong out which really can go either way in comparison

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Frederick Cambell

Gut says this over Mala and logic says both of em over NK15

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Elements
I get a bad vibe from his Fred vote. Meg’s too but she’s probably not CL.

Can you explain that "bad vibe" a bit more?

Ditto here tbh

[MegAzumarill]

Oh sweet, I can actually read Math

Vibe of the game so far was that your slot wasn't doing much and seemed frozen. I scum read Drapion independently of Hutmeil, but I read Hutmeil's inaction as scummier. Meg, Elements, and Gamma all seem pretty townie, not sure on Mala and Fred yet. NK15 is a player that I'm waiting for a meta tell before I settle on a read there.

Why no question/comment for Drapion?

I don't see what you are referencing here?

[MegAzumarill]

@math

[MegAzumarill]

Like, I could have just kept my vote on you. Multiple people wanted you gone, and instead I defended your slot. You made it clear you didn't want to vote Drapion, and if I was CL and wanted to use that against you I would've made sure Drapion interacted with you in a way that made you look worse so that I could mis-elim you today. The way you're describing my play otherwise makes it sound like you think I just fumbled the game and didn't know what I was doing.

Math...you have to have content before I can read you...

No?

You can have a read from a single post.

It’s actually rather common thing people do on D1

Common perhaps but I feel it's more common to not have a solid read of someone off of their first post.

[MegAzumarill]

You don't have any other players you think could be CL?

[MegAzumarill]

Also you are disagreeing with three people besides Roden means that at least two townies don't see it the same way. It's not as open and shut as you claim it to be or else we wouldn't be here.

[MegAzumarill]

Ok but this conversation isn't going to get anywhere. Who else do you think could be CL

[MegAzumarill]

And I would've recruited Meg

Why so?

[MegAzumarill]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

[MegAzumarill]

Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)

Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.

[MegAzumarill]

probably should reread the game but i don't really wanna so I'll just ISO the CL pool or somethin

[MegAzumarill]

Idk if you're trying to defend your skill here but I'm not saying anything about how you're playing, it's how you're talking. In the Micro you do seem different there, you're less wordy and I don't get the feeling you're reading over your posts before you hit submit.

I don't think 82 and 84 read like they've been read over. Maybe a bit wordy but explaining gut reads be like that.
82 and 84 are the important post coz they're actual thoughts, the rest is like, yea sure it's more read over but it's also defensive so that's kinda what you expect

But you have Roden as your top pick?
What about gamma's push on drapion did you dislike as compared to roden?

The groupings aren't ordered

Actually these two look a lot scummier in retrospect. A significant part of the day 1 Elements ISO is defending drapion.

[MegAzumarill]

I think this player has the highest chance of being mafia by virtue of post count and content of 伊's posts.

VOTE: Malakittens

Spoiler: What is 伊

Third person singular pronoun in Hokkien Chinese

Don't really like this. It's a weak push but considering Mala's day 1 "posts" it's not unreasonable here.

I don't think Drapion's early game really suggests 伊 is cult leader.

Well, why not?

I actually don't think Drapion's early game suggests 伊's alignment at all.

But I actually think Drapion's early game suggests ProfessorDrapion is town. I just forgot about that when I made the post I quoted.

This doesn't feel like scum hedging and I don't think CL!Fred defends his partner like this. Occams razor to me says town here.

I'll UNVOTE: here for now.


It's hard to compare Mala's lack of an ISO here to Elements. I do recall that their (elements)thoughts were close to mine which is +points for town but idk. I do see some of the stuff for the wagon on them now
Mala on the other hand doesn't really have anything to read for day 1 so I'll give my past self some credit and go here.
VOTE: Malakittens

[MegAzumarill]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amount

[MegAzumarill]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amount

Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.

See: My scumcase of Mathblade day 1

[MegAzumarill]

NK15, your case doesn't really tie in much from elements (or anything at all) that makes you think they are CL.

Even if you are right on Mathblade being the recruit I don't see how that makes Elements CL.

It does because the only math townread that is full of BS is Elements and because of what I said below the second-last quote in my case post.

I still really prefer hunting for CL first then working the way down. I also think even Math's day 1 in isolation ia inconsiatant at points so I'm hesitant to be certain on your math case since I don't think their play has changed a huge amount

Please share these inconsistencies you are seeing.

See: My scumcase of Mathblade day 1

Looked at it. That is a playstyle clash with a bit of tunnelling on Math's part. An 1v1 with tunnely behaviour is not the same as pushing multiple BS reads(their scumreads, and the Elements townread).

I suppose it's different but I don't really fully understand your case on Math here

I think there's a fairly compelling case as to why Math was probably not converted last night

(Looking a little ahead I do see how a recruit!Math last night could tie into Elements!CL by poe now)

[MegAzumarill]

Hmmmmmmmmm votecounts.

VOTE: frederick e campbell
ok this is actually scum
mala vote is cheap, sus on me is cheap too

Makes me think math could be CL

Yeah honestly I can see it from how Math has went about me and how he brought up Gamma, and the town read, plus indirectly trying to get players to vote for me.

Yeah that could actually be CL and Gamma is trying to save it.
Yeah I hope this flips CL so I can just bury Gamma tomorrow.

VOTE: MathBlade

Was this planned? Is this SvS? Let me think about this a bit.

I would highly doubt it

[MegAzumarill]

Part of it may be the two days away but I have trouble finding convincing reason to not shoot between the unspewed quiets..(Mala, Frederick, and Elements)

Elements is still my least favorite shot out of the three. I don't really see the MO they are going for here if they are CL.

I think that of those I would pick Fredrick but I think more than likely we should be aiming on the wagon. (I am not counting Mala as she never made a long term case.

I think it’s much safer to hit in could but CL or cult and I find that if we get a cult instead of CL (I know we really want CL) then we know that if a cop exists their results are true for that day and if a jailkeep exists then they have a perma inno and the pool shrinks.

Then if hypothetically at elo if the jailkeep gets converted we ask for crumbs of who they protected and we get their inno regardless. And if not they refuse then we know they are cult and elo is that much easier and we look for crumbs ourselves.

I like to play town to give scum no good options.

I also tend to think that if a player hates being scum they’d try to recruit me for tips. So hence another reason I don’t like how your PoE is Meg.

If we narrow all the possibilities then scum can’t do anything.

1. Why would Jailkeeper have crumbed targets? I don't see any reason why they would.
2. I don't think the people on the wagon are likely to be aligned with Drapion (maybe NK15, but I do think thwir recent push on you is coming from town.) Shooting with the intention to hit cultist is basically all WIFOM
3. Scum is incentivised to not recruit you regardless
4. I feel like my PoE is still correct for CL.


Looking to hear why you think we should be limming on wagon though

[MegAzumarill]

For 3 First:
Ok think about CL's Perspective end of day 1. They know the following: 1. You (Math) are a Vanilla Townie. 2. A Cop or Jailkeeper can exist. 3. If they are targeted by either they either straight up lose or almost lose.

If Cop targets CL, CL loses in every scenario they don't recruit the cop. Recruiting jailkeeper provides an enormous boon to cult, potentially protecting both members with a fakeclaim.

Why then would you forfeit the chance to avoid an autoloss by recruiting a VT when, say, you could instead recruit someone like Gamma, Roden, NK15 or me that all were fairly townread (or spewed by and not claimed?

I feel there's plenty of options that are objectively better than recruiting you. The only reason I could see it would be WIFOM, but that's probably too dangerous of a gamble for CL to make.

[MegAzumarill]

Tldr why would they recruit a vt claim
thats dumb

[MegAzumarill]

As for 4:
Roden: The most major factor in the drapion lim actually going through imo. Unnecessary for him to do as CL.
You: Drapion E-1'd you with clear intent to kill. They much prefer their own lim over yours if they are cl.
Gamma: Obvious tunnel by drapion on cl feels incredibly unlikely. Possibly recruit, but almost certainly not CL.
Nk15: This is still POE technically, but would have been a harder buss to pull off if it was one. I have started liking their content as the game went on leaving me comfortable with leaving them out of POE.
Meg: wait thats me
Rest are in POE

[MegAzumarill]

If CL is not in Mala/Elements/Fred I'd be surprised
If CL is not in them + NK15 I'd be legitimately shocked

[MegAzumarill]

And although I've hinted at it I don't want to disclose much on my thoughts on recruits till tomorrow. Tomorrow we get to shoot at most likely scum

[MegAzumarill]

Elements you should claim

[MegAzumarill]

If we can get the CL today and unconverted cop
Then N1 check
D2 elim CL
N2 check
D3 cop claims with results as scum can do Jack all — 7 alive. 2 known results. Max one cult. Outs N1 and N2 results. If any scum then last scum is in cop claim and guilty GG. Otherwise we are at 2 conf town and cop + 3 other town remaining. Elim in 3, check another

Next day is two conf town remaining cop and two others. Cop if gets guilty it’s GG elim one or the other. So cop provides an inno. Elim the other remaining Townie.

If game continues 2 confirmed town and cop and one other. Cop is going to say a guilty. Elim cop elim other

Two Townies remain.

So if we get CL today cop is instant win even if cop is converted.

JK works similar but loads more complicated.

I think CL never gets eliminated if they convert cop because the two can coordinate a safeclaim for them. (I.e. both claim unrecr townies) but w/e

I think I am fine with an Elements lim here so ima

Intent to hammer

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Malakittens
I got a very bad feeling about limming Elements atm.

why the sudden change of heart?
UNVOTE:

While I'm also curious same can be said to you here

Why the unvote?

[MegAzumarill]

something something blood for the blood god
don't really have much to say
probably will hammer elemwnts if they are put back at e-1 given no active discussion at the time
kinda ready to end the day

[MegAzumarill]

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

[MegAzumarill]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

[MegAzumarill]

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

hmmm why?

I mean if she goes unclaimed why would they over a more townread player

[MegAzumarill]

So if she does end up claiming VT it's not like she's deawing the convert away if she didn't claim and is town.

[MegAzumarill]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

Post says “Assume Mala VT”
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”

Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur

Poorly phrased on my end.

Given the four possible responses to a claim, 2 of them aren't helpful to scum, and the odds of one of the other two are exponentially higher if Mala is town.

Additionally the raw odds of Mala being CL before any clears are taken into account is higher than the odds she is JK or Cop (By 3:2 margin)

[MegAzumarill]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

Only at first glance.
If scum acts the CL dies tomorrow, then the scum dies the next, and Cult has a maximum of one person remaining.
4:1 Nightless, with a converted Cop/JK is the best they can get there.
4:1 Nightless Vanilla has a 60% town win rate.
If scum doesn't act the CL has a 50% chance to die today and a 50% chance to not die today and probably not tomorrow.
We cannot distinguish between that and T/T. This doesn't help us!

I mean in theory it doesn't hurt but yeah probably not worth the hassel then.

[MegAzumarill]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

Post says “Assume Mala VT”
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”

Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur

Poorly phrased on my end.

Given the four possible responses to a claim, 2 of them aren't helpful to scum, and the odds of one of the other two are exponentially higher if Mala is town.

Additionally the raw odds of Mala being CL before any clears are taken into account is higher than the odds she is JK or Cop (By 3:2 margin)

I mean I think we just vote who we think is most likely CL and get this probability headache gone

[MegAzumarill]

Mathblade, between Elements and Mala which do you think is the better lim

[MegAzumarill]

You're going to be the deciding vote anyway so might as well decide

[MegAzumarill]

Yeah I don't think a flashwagon will happen here
I feel like there really isn't another case on Mala because there's basically nothing for it to be based on. That's genuinely concerning though. I do think you are town here so I'll
VOTE: Elements [E-1]

[MegAzumarill]

There isn't a need for a claim I suppose so might as well avoid it.

Don't think it does as much harm as you suggest but this is still a good elim

[MegAzumarill]

Do we have a cc?

[MegAzumarill]

So Mala!Cl or Cult!NK probably

[MegAzumarill]

Cop game means elo if true

[MegAzumarill]

Notably we also don't have to shoot for CL then, since cult cant recruit tonight regardless if they have three members

[MegAzumarill]

Wait I'm dumb

[MegAzumarill]

If Nk is real its Gamma(Johnny)/Roden/Mala probably

[MegAzumarill]

Cop here.
Night 1: Campbell town.
Night 2: Mathblade town.

Cop game means elo if true

I am town right now but this can be true no CC and NK converted.

This claim didn’t help unless we got CL.

We need to flip CL today else NK will be cult either tomorrow or already is.

If cult flips today they cannot recruit since they cannot recruit into parity (and 3 cult would be parity)

[MegAzumarill]

We flipped cultist D1. This cannot be elo. This claim was absolutely premature.

Cult has 2 recruit nights ergo 3 cult now.

3v4

[MegAzumarill]

If we have to elim CL that changes thinga but I could have sworn cult couldnt recruit into parity

[MegAzumarill]

Frederick could work as CL if NK is in fact cult

[MegAzumarill]

:Thinking:

[MegAzumarill]

If they failed once we could hit cultist and survive, which would mean exactly CL:NK15 i think

[MegAzumarill]

I think its unlikely, cop claim makes s3nse with NK's day 2

[MegAzumarill]

At least on a skim, I'll be back later tomight

[MegAzumarill]

If they failed once we could hit cultist and survive, which would mean exactly CL:NK15 i think

It would mean NK 15 scum not necessarily CL.

But I think we do have to sort NK or decide if he trust his info or not.

Well in that world there is two scum alive and the recruited one is JK so if they die and NK lives as cop claim they must be CL.

[MegAzumarill]

Vote Count 2.08

Elements (5):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden, MegAzumarill, Not Known 15

Malakittens (2):

Fredrick A Campbell, Elements

Roden (1):

MathBlade

With 8 alive, it took 5 to eliminate.

Assume NK town then all the cult combined on Elements.

This means Mala is likely cult of some kind.

So regardless of NK’s alignment Mala is some kind of cult.

Vote Count 1.08

I'm a wolf child, baby
And I'm howlin' for you

ProfessorDrapion (5):

Not Known 15, Roden, MegAzumarill, MathBlade, Malakittens

Not Known 15 (2):

Fredrick A Campbell, Elements

MathBlade (1):

ProfessorDrapion

Fredrick A Campbell (1):

Gamma Emerald

With 9 alive, it took 5 to eliminate.

Assume NK is town. Then myself, Campbell, and NK are town. Elements is town.

Then either A) The CL bussed Drapion as I thought earlier or B) Gamma is the CL.

These both assume Town!NK15, so not regardless of alignment. (At least via this argument)

Also for Day 2, assuming Town!Mala scum doesn't really care which of the wagons I think.

[MegAzumarill]

Why do you think NK/Math are trustworthy?

[MegAzumarill]

I think it's more likely that if NK15 is scum they are converted cop/JK over say a CL that recruited cult. I feel like their day 1 into day 2 lines up well with this (unless they have been intentionally playing toward this claim for that long but still feels less likely.)
I'll give a chance for Roden to post in case of a CC but if not I'm under the assumption NK15 rolled PR.

I did double check and we do need to hit CL or we do lose tonight.

[MegAzumarill]

I mean I don't really see much of a viable alternative.

Who would you say is Cult Leader?

[MegAzumarill]

I mean I don't really see much of a viable alternative.

Who would you say is Cult Leader?

It's between you/roden/fred

Again:

I thought fred was the cop hence me backing off D2.
I have to reexamine

unless drap really bussed roden I don't think its roden

which leaves me between u/fred

at least in my POV

If NK15 is real like you said, Fred can't be CL

[MegAzumarill]

Probably should start reading up before I reply

[MegAzumarill]

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

Who do you think is most likely CL?

I do agree that Mala fits the bill for a recruit target though.

I mean I could see cult hammering like that when they know the slot is going over. Last second distancing was my initial impression after I saw the flip, but I prolly should reread drapion/mala ISO.

The best course of action today is aim for CL, from there we can work out the recruit. Trying to guess who got recruited is really WIFOM and once we POE the leader, we can solve from there.

(There's a good chance CL may have even failed to recruit from JK or unreq townies as well, so aiming for the recruit could be completely worthless)


Gamma, Roden, and (regrettably) Math are probably not CL in my book.

Specifically here.

My read was that Meg was PR with inno on me. Meg’s read changed rather violently.

Do you think you read as aligned with Drapion Day 1?

I think the shift was warranted.

[MegAzumarill]

The main issue I have is that Meg did a similar soft of jailkeeping me after N1 and didn’t refute it.

I think I literally explained why Cult wouldn't target you so i legit don't know what you are talking about here.

[MegAzumarill]

The main issue I have is that Meg did a similar soft of jailkeeping me after N1 and didn’t refute it.

I think I literally explained why Cult wouldn't target you so i legit don't know what you are talking about here.

You said an explanation, which I disagreed with, which sounds like CYB.

CYB?

[MegAzumarill]

Roden you may be right and Mala scum but she makes more sense as cult not CL.

I don’t think a CL quick hammers their only buddy like that.

Who do you think is most likely CL?

I do agree that Mala fits the bill for a recruit target though.

I mean I could see cult hammering like that when they know the slot is going over. Last second distancing was my initial impression after I saw the flip, but I prolly should reread drapion/mala ISO.

The best course of action today is aim for CL, from there we can work out the recruit. Trying to guess who got recruited is really WIFOM and once we POE the leader, we can solve from there.

(There's a good chance CL may have even failed to recruit from JK or unreq townies as well, so aiming for the recruit could be completely worthless)


Gamma, Roden, and (regrettably) Math are probably not CL in my book.

Specifically here.

My read was that Meg was PR with inno on me. Meg’s read changed rather violently.

Do you think you read as aligned with Drapion Day 1?

I think the shift was warranted.

I am a horrible judge of what I read as town. I think I obvTown as town and I obvTown as scum.

Consider Drapion E-1'd you and if you were CL you lost if you died though

[MegAzumarill]

Mathblade I'll give you another shot here to explain to me why you think NK15 is CL over a Mala!CL.

[MegAzumarill]

I'm about ready to vote here. I think Roden is most likely a recruit. I think If Mala is town here, her reads are explicitly game losing on a lim. (Because I know both my alignment and don't think Roden is CL) Honestly if we are t/t scum have thoroughly stomped us but that feels luke a pipe dream. If Mala is cult, I find exponentially likelier to be CL than for scum to recruit such a scumread slot.

I'm hesitant to pull the trigger in ELO so soon, but I think we lose on a NK15 vote here

[MegAzumarill]

I'm about ready to vote here. I think Roden is most likely a recruit. I think If Mala is town here, her reads are explicitly game losing on a lim. (Because I know both my alignment and don't think Roden is CL) Honestly if we are t/t scum have thoroughly stomped us but that feels luke a pipe dream. If Mala is cult, I find exponentially likelier to be CL than for scum to recruit such a scumread slot.

I'm hesitant to pull the trigger in ELO so soon, but I think we lose on a NK15 vote here

I would say don’t be a hero if you’re town.

Talk it out

We have 6 days.

There’s no reason to quick vote when most people haven’t caught up.

I'm fine for discussion but my townreads are divided against each other here. I feel like condensing today into a 1v1 is necessary and far better than the alternative, or as bad as the alternative worst case scenario

[MegAzumarill]

I'm about ready to vote here. I think Roden is most likely a recruit. I think If Mala is town here, her reads are explicitly game losing on a lim. (Because I know both my alignment and don't think Roden is CL) Honestly if we are t/t scum have thoroughly stomped us but that feels luke a pipe dream. If Mala is cult, I find exponentially likelier to be CL than for scum to recruit such a scumread slot.

I'm hesitant to pull the trigger in ELO so soon, but I think we lose on a NK15 vote here

I would say don’t be a hero if you’re town.

Talk it out

We have 6 days.

There’s no reason to quick vote when most people haven’t caught up.

I'm fine for discussion but my townreads are divided against each other here. I feel like condensing today into a 1v1 is necessary and far better than the alternative, or as bad as the alternative worst case scenario

How can you say I am divided here?

I am not pushing like hard for anyone.

Who else is “divided”?

The last three days I have been compromising and we haven’t hit the CL at all

I would like to have remotely some confidence in a wagon before a vote happens.

Consider how the votes really only consolidated at the very end of day yesterday. You have 3 potential CLs, NK15 I believe has at least two, Fred doesn't really have a lot of direction at the moment as far as I can tell.

I feel like scum (who hold almost half the discussion power) can sweep in for a case on anyone suspected as CL that just isn't, which can be compounded even by the suspected acting to promote the attention.

I feel like scum coordinate this then win off of it. The longer we sit around the more likely it happens.

I'd rather the day have the wagon from a source I know is town. I'm also confident as a realistically can be its the right choice. Perhaps not correct but the right choice nonetheless

[MegAzumarill]

And I do think NK15's alignment is probably town

[MegAzumarill]

I don't think I would have reconsidered the drapion slot if not for Rodens pressure there. I have such a hard time thinking that's a bus. That's feels more purposeful than a bus should.
His Content aftee day 1 declines as well, which points to recruit

[MegAzumarill]

Nk15 as CL probably doesn't take the fakeclaim knowing the potential consequences. It's so much more attention to his slot than needed, gives out a hard and soft clear, and could so easily be replaced with a cultist faking a guilty or even unrecruitable claims.

Even if CL!NK would do so, NK would have been bussing his partner basically all day 1 with ample opportunities to switch off they just didn't take which

especially

feels weird if they managed to hit a PR n1 by catching a crumb

[MegAzumarill]

Which basically reduces into danger!Wifom*2 + Random PR recruit for the CL nk15 case

[MegAzumarill]

Intent to vote Malakittens

I'll take a few houra to consider more but it just feels as clear as it can be in the circumstances

[MegAzumarill]

Correct.

In an NK CL world Mala is likely town. As I said earlier.

I don’t think I am explaining myself well enough or you’re not in a space/alignment to listen to it.

Do you think a town!Mala here votes CL!NK?

[MegAzumarill]

Correct.

In an NK CL world Mala is likely town. As I said earlier.

I don’t think I am explaining myself well enough or you’re not in a space/alignment to listen to it.

Do you think a town!Mala here votes CL!NK?

I am not sure. She’s been too quiet.

I mean I don't really see much of a viable alternative.

Who would you say is Cult Leader?

It's between you/roden/fred

Again:

I thought fred was the cop hence me backing off D2.
I have to reexamine

unless drap really bussed roden I don't think its roden

which leaves me between u/fred

at least in my POV

I believe I been townreading NK for most of the game?

I’m really not in the mood to prove to you or anyone.

The reason why I backed off Fred was b/c i thought he was a cop D2 mainly because of the way he came out of the gate.

I think we can trust NK + Math so they are prob town, I’m town & it leaves Fred [???] in case Fred was converted N2.

Which leaves scum in {roden, JF & Meg}.

I mean roden could have bussed hardcore drap
Bc tech

All from Day 3.

In a world of CL!NK we'd lose anyway assuming not a significant shift here

[MegAzumarill]

I will tell you if you vote right now I will not townread you at all.

Like I said I think there's a window of opportunity here.

Maybe I'm scum looking for a game winning mislim/bus. That's a move they can definitely do here. More importantly that's a move they

will

do here provided I don't act first.

[MegAzumarill]

You as scum are scared of me Johnny and Fred can talk we can find the CL.

I mean
I'm scared Johnny and/or Fred talk you OUT of voting for CL.
Which I suppose looks the same either way.

[MegAzumarill]

Vote Count 2.07

Malakittens (3):

MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell, Not Known 15

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden

Roden (1):

MathBlade

Not Voting (1):

Elements

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

The only team that works for Mala CL to me is Johnny/NK15/Roden.

I don’t see how that team works.

Why do you think it doesn't work?

[MegAzumarill]

Spoiler:

Math isn't scum. Whenever he's polarizing like this it usually means he's town. I know that he can emulate it as scum as well, but I don't think he claims VT and intentionally avoids playing to survive here if so.

I almost wanna call this post disingenuous, but maybe it's just meandering and I'm grumpy
_

CL Math has to claim VT here so I don't think the claim is AI

Tunnel much?
_

???

What?

This basically says that you think I'm town and that you're letting the cult know they don't have to recruit me because you'll vote me anyway.

Roden is fully not CL here, right?
_

VOTE: ProfessorDrapion

This 180 is wild and I almost think it's too stark to be scum
_

We aren't playing Cultafia.

If CL dies no recruit, straight up no nk

Oh dunk that's why only 2 have died
_

What's cult leadery about not voting in your first post?

Being afraid of voting and taking a stance.

I did take a stance.
On Gamma.
I thought their push on Elements was wolf motivated and still do.

Yes, and now I should townread you for changing your play like that after I already pushed you for hedging?

So NK15 is town d1, got it.

OK SOoOoOo at the end of D1 readslist coming up next

This is the most important readlist for today's lim, though of course the other days can also help for informing it.

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Malakittens

Please unvote. I haven't even thought this through.

Outstanding insight

What do you think so far?

[MegAzumarill]

I did miss one team possibility yesterday. Fred CL NK15 Recruit N1

Need to give it some thought

[MegAzumarill]

I especially want to see what Roden proposes and to take an actual stance on something.

Roden I am pretty sure is scum here.

?

I gave my reads and what I think the team is and what the order of recruitment. Claiming that I've proposed nothing and have no actual stances is just, bewilderingly wrong here. Right now I'm just waiting for Johnny to catch up since I don't see any particular reason to argue with anyone that is obviously cult, because you're pretty much my only town read talking right now.

Who are your townreads that aren't talking?

[MegAzumarill]

Hypotheses become more likely the more the attempts to disprove them fail.

I mean no but thats not particularly relevant right now so w/e

[MegAzumarill]

At least in the context of mafia

[MegAzumarill]

Realistically the chopping block should be between Fred and Mala.
The possibility of Mala is certainly more likely if but for the options of Fred!CL requires a n1 Nk15 recruit which feels less likely but not unreasonable

[MegAzumarill]

Here's the thing

You all should be concerned with the decent number of people scum reading me in ELO. THAT should be a red-flag because scum is less likely to bus this close to a win

Ok but like I think those players are town though?

Fred/Math/NK/Me as the four townies makes a lot of sense here

[MegAzumarill]

And even if NK is scum with you as cl its not a horrible bus for them here

[MegAzumarill]

For the most part I think these popins with what seems like a new angle of defensive each time reflect poorly on Mala's alignment. I feel like if she's town here she is at threat of losing right here and now and yet I don't see the action thise stakes would prompt

[MegAzumarill]

Sorry I’m honestly not dealing with another two days of this shif when we all know I’m going to be mistimed regardless and apparently the town jsut can’t give zero fucks and in over it

VOTE: Mala

If the last scum is roden as the CL then good job buddy, good job

Do you have a conpelling reason why CL!Roden kills off his partner Day 1 over an alternative?

[MegAzumarill]

Here's the thing

You all should be concerned with the decent number of people scum reading me in ELO. THAT should be a red-flag because scum is less likely to bus this close to a win

It’s why I go slow in elo to evaluate things.

I mean it soft points toward converted NK if Mala is CL which doesn't feel unreasonable as a n2 recruit

[MegAzumarill]

Vote Count 2.04

Ow, I was born to the city
But I longed to roam free

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Not Known 15, Malakittens

Malakittens (2):

Roden, MegAzumarill

Fredrick A Campbell (1):

Elements

Roden (1):

MathBlade

Not Known 15 (1):

Fredrick A Campbell

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

Vote Count 2.05

Well, the night, it rise above you, rise above me
And the blues, they swirl around me

Malakittens (4):

MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell, Elements, Not Known 15

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden

Roden (1):

MathBlade

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

Roden can you remind me/elaborate why you switched wagons here

[MegAzumarill]

Sorry I’m honestly not dealing with another two days of this shif when we all know I’m going to be mistimed regardless and apparently the town jsut can’t give zero fucks and in over it

VOTE: Mala

If the last scum is roden as the CL then good job buddy, good job

Do you have a conpelling reason why CL!Roden kills off his partner Day 1 over an alternative?

This is really the main point holding up Roden from being likely CL from just likely cult. That said its a strong one. If you (or anyone) do actually want to push Roden as an alternative lim then you'll need to address it

[MegAzumarill]

Half tempted to join and half tempted to see who jumps on for future analysis. If its's wrong its probably over but eh I think Mala's prolly just vurbing associatives here.
May as well wait

[MegAzumarill]

curbing&

[MegAzumarill]

I mean I guess both alignments probably jump on here so probably a fruitless endeavor atp.
VOTE: Malakittens Money where my mouth is I guess. E-1.



I don't see this day ending better in any other way

[MegAzumarill]

UNVOTE:

[MegAzumarill]

It's just hard to make deciscions in a 70/30 split.
Like obviously you pick the 70 but its not an insignificant error rate

[MegAzumarill]

More discussion first is fine. Even if the day will end like this it doedn't need to end now.

[MegAzumarill]

I'll probably revote after I hear what you have to say. You're really the only person opposed to it right now

[MegAzumarill]

I'll probably revote after I hear what you have to say. You're really the only person opposed to it right now

Not opposed more seeing where lines end up.

Mala on here was Mala NK15 and you.

If anyone was scum lurking they could have hammered if Mala wasn’t cult leader.

It’s an established fact from the setup cult have daytalk

I mean it was an open window of like 30 seconds.

Whar do you mean by lines here?

[MegAzumarill]

I.e. potential partners if I was scum here?

[MegAzumarill]

That does assume that
A. scum would want to recruit Mala here and that
B. Mala would be playing to AtE llike this when about to win

Both don't feel likely especially in tandem.

[MegAzumarill]

I mean who would you say is CL I know you talked about NK15 but that feels far-fetched fmpov.

I think today all the mulling around over the obvious elim probably indicates a scum bus waiting for a misplaced vote. It just feels like scum don't want to make a move and I feel like scum, specially recruits would have so much room to move in if Mala is not CL

[MegAzumarill]

That does assume that
A. scum would want to recruit Mala here and that
B. Mala would be playing to AtE llike this when about to win

Both don't feel likely especially in tandem.

It’s more I am starting with facts then going to play.

Unless I find a wagon exactly three people and myself and only that combo want then that’s the only way NK15’s cop claim works.

If Mala happens to be the cult leader and I am not on wagon then NK15 also has to be culted.

I don't follow

[MegAzumarill]

k

[MegAzumarill]

Continue

[MegAzumarill]

I'd argue that advancing their wincon could be winning towncred here if they feel Mala always goes down today.
I mean I'll consider it closer tomorrow but I don't think it's wise to bottleneck scum!NK here on a CL Mala.

[MegAzumarill]

In a world of Town!NK a CL lim is not a trivial win here (in fact its not trivial regardless of his alignment )
I don't really think thats convincing enough for me to swap.


As for a Roden recruit n1, I could see either a NK or Gamma/Johnny recruit. I don't really see a lot pigeonholing the choice there

[MegAzumarill]

Alright but consider: scum would also have the numbers to quickhammer the wrong vote if you did. If scum aren't bussing to try and win with town cred it's probably to try and permeate this uncertainty.

I mean I've considered and reconsidered this here and I feel all roads still just lead to Rome. I don't really think I can do anything else atp. If I'm wrong I'm sorry. VOTE: Malakittens

I'll keep it here this time

[MegAzumarill]

Well I and NK15 are confirmed scum to you if you aren't CL due to lack of qh. Want to give some reasoning?

[MegAzumarill]

I mean there's no necessary QH for CL!Mala so I don't really see how this info ends up useful tomorrow.

Roden if you think Mala is CL why don't you vote them? Waiting for something?

[MegAzumarill]

If it turns to e-1 and e-1 then I only have two worlds to consider.

If it turns into one hammers over the other then we know there has to be a scum on it.

So it narrows down scum worlds the more I hood out.

Ok but this is true for any 4 arbitrary players you choose so im not really sure what you're on about

[MegAzumarill]

I'm not arguing that you should vote (I think if roden was being genuine they would've at this point ) I was just wondering what you hope to acheive with this 'line' analysis

[MegAzumarill]

What is cult going to do in the night to hamper discussion? Recruit?

[MegAzumarill]

It really just feels like reluctance to jump on a bus atp

[MegAzumarill]

If Malakittens were cult leader, that might indeed explain why they haven't been executed.

I am not sure town aligned players would dare vote in an execute or lose scenario.

What do you think would be the alternative? If we don't reach a hammer scum can plurshift at dl

[MegAzumarill]

Thats the logical conclusion to that thought and it doesn't work

[MegAzumarill]

This is true although I was the one who pointed it out regardless

[MegAzumarill]

Decided it'd be better to hit the clear than the cop since you were under fire and figured it would be a Math check

[MegAzumarill]

[MegAzumarill]

I did actually think cult couldn't recruit into parity so we had set up a Mala lim in advanced when we didn't necessarily need to