Micro 1062 | Divide and Conquer | Postgame

[SCRRRDBEAR]

IS DANNFLOR SOLVEY IN THE BIG HOOD? WHAT ABOUT RADJA?

THEY AREN'T SOLVEY IN THREAD SO I ASSUME THEY POST IDEAS IN BIG HOOD.

[Dannflor]

Everyone says there’s no use for the big hood

[Dannflor]

I’m not gonna lie half the reason I want to flip Somnus is because I think scrrrdbear is likely mafia

[Cephrir]

You should try to sell us on that instead of flipping somnus

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

whack

[SCRRRDBEAR]

What does somnus flipping scum tell you about the game cakez

I want the slot to post more before we seriously contemplate killing it anyways tho

I am here

...

i think we should probably kill somnus but that ending the day so early would be disadvantageous

WHERE IS THE FOLLOW UP TO SORTING CAKEZ IN 313, DANNFLOR?

VOTE: somnus

I think it quite valuable to flip somnus and taking for granted that Somnus is definitely scum is hubris

...

IS DANNFLOR SOLVEY IN THE BIG HOOD? WHAT ABOUT RADJA?

THEY AREN'T SOLVEY IN THREAD SO I ASSUME THEY POST IDEAS IN BIG HOOD.

Everyone says there’s no use for the big hood

I’m not gonna lie half the reason I want to flip Somnus is because I think scrrrdbear is likely mafia

WHERE IS THE FOLLOW UP TO SORTING SOMNUS IN 353, DANNFLOR?

Let's eliminate somnus's partner from the big hood

For sport

FIRE IS A GOOD SERVANT BUT A BAD MASTER

ONLY

YOU

CAN PREVENT WILDFIRES

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

VOTE: DANNFLOR

[Cephrir]

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

[Radja]

You've been voting him for almost 10 pages. I don't approve of your strategy; but there's consistency there, it feels like something you actually believe in. While SirCakez suddenly decided that we gotta eliminate Somnus, and not only that, he also made sure that we all know he does not townread Somnus at all! Even though the only reason he had for townreading him was an associate read with you, which ended up being made from incorrect logic anyway! And he's not trying to understand my argument, he's just shading me and dismissing it! I don't like it!

Another reason why it rubbed me the wrong way is that SirCakez has been sorting within the big hood, and people were in the middle of running up Radja (who is in the big hood), and

that

is where SirCakez decides to start voting Somnus? Town knows that we need to catch the big-hood-scum to win. So the timing of voting for Somnus JUST AS people are actually voting someone up to sort them is...? I just don't get it from a town perspective.

There's only 1 scum in the big hood. So Cakez going for Somnus at the moment I was getting votes might not be the best play, but there's 0% we're scum together so I don't see why he's getting heat for it?

[Radja]

Thinking about it more I really think Cakez is town.

[Dannflor]

no thoughts head empty

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I’m not gonna lie half the reason I want to flip Somnus is because I think scrrrdbear is likely mafia

dannflor town

[Lucian]

You've been voting him for almost 10 pages. I don't approve of your strategy; but there's consistency there, it feels like something you actually believe in. While SirCakez suddenly decided that we gotta eliminate Somnus, and not only that, he also made sure that we all know he does not townread Somnus at all! Even though the only reason he had for townreading him was an associate read with you, which ended up being made from incorrect logic anyway! And he's not trying to understand my argument, he's just shading me and dismissing it! I don't like it!

Another reason why it rubbed me the wrong way is that SirCakez has been sorting within the big hood, and people were in the middle of running up Radja (who is in the big hood), and

that

is where SirCakez decides to start voting Somnus? Town knows that we need to catch the big-hood-scum to win. So the timing of voting for Somnus JUST AS people are actually voting someone up to sort them is...? I just don't get it from a town perspective.

There's only 1 scum in the big hood. So Cakez going for Somnus at the moment I was getting votes might not be the best play, but there's 0% we're scum together so I don't see why he's getting heat for it?

...

You are

literally quoting

a post where I explained why I think SirCakez's timing of the Somnus vote is suspicious. How did you end up at "SirCakez and Radja are buddies"? Is nobody reading my posts? Am I not speaking clearly?

[Lucian]

no thoughts head empty

Though to be real, this "follow up" after admitting to scumreading Scared Bear and doing nothing about it is atrocious.

[Radja]

You've been voting him for almost 10 pages. I don't approve of your strategy; but there's consistency there, it feels like something you actually believe in. While SirCakez suddenly decided that we gotta eliminate Somnus, and not only that, he also made sure that we all know he does not townread Somnus at all! Even though the only reason he had for townreading him was an associate read with you, which ended up being made from incorrect logic anyway! And he's not trying to understand my argument, he's just shading me and dismissing it! I don't like it!

Another reason why it rubbed me the wrong way is that SirCakez has been sorting within the big hood, and people were in the middle of running up Radja (who is in the big hood), and

that

is where SirCakez decides to start voting Somnus? Town knows that we need to catch the big-hood-scum to win. So the timing of voting for Somnus JUST AS people are actually voting someone up to sort them is...? I just don't get it from a town perspective.

There's only 1 scum in the big hood. So Cakez going for Somnus at the moment I was getting votes might not be the best play, but there's 0% we're scum together so I don't see why he's getting heat for it?

...

You are

literally quoting

a post where I explained why I think SirCakez's timing of the Somnus vote is suspicious. How did you end up at "SirCakez and Radja are buddies"? Is nobody reading my posts? Am I not speaking clearly?

I just completely don't see why ScumCakez would do that. Why is the timing of it such a problem to you, especially when I can't be scum with Cakez. I just don't see it.

[Dannflor]

Okay, I lied, I have some thoughts

I feel like Somnus isn’t scum despite having zero logical or non-vibes based feelings to back that up. But I’ll try to explain how I feel about the current game-state regardless. I’ve been doing some rereading and it’s only be fueling my current idea of the game so hopefully someone can tell me which parts of this have merit and which are just conf-bias.

What I'm mostly worried about is being wrong here, Somnus flipping town and us having pretty much nothing to work with, aside from the 50/50 odds. Which pretty much forces us to look at the small hood AGAIN on day 2.

I don’t think this is a town thought. I don’t think any townie would believe that Somnus flipping town gives us nothing to work with. Especially because Lucian is so eye-blindingly obvious town in this game. I don’t think anyone has not town read Lucian at this point?

A Somnus town flip would break the game wide open and this post seems like a fake fear designed to look pro-town. If my current theory about the game is correct then this also fits because I don’t think scum want to flip Somnus right now. If Somnus is town, flipping them puts extreme pressure on a mafia member who is otherwise exerting a lot of thread presence.

If I’m wrong and Somnus is scum, I would expect Somnus’ partner to be ready and willing to bus them. I would honestly probably clear Radja in this scenario.

All that being said, if Somnus is town, I think scum in the big hood always has to be ready to turn and believably bus their buddy due to the inevitability of the Somnus flip and the nature of the setup.

Small Hood: ScaredBear an Lucian are probably town?
Unless:
- Scared Bear is mafia
- wants to make sure we vote in the small hood for the mafia in big hood to have better odds later
- will probably get voted out on day 2 if Somnus happens to be town? But that leaves the big hood wide open, which might be a good call for them.

Or I'm wrong about Lucian..

Big Hood: not a clue tbh

I guess I could vote Somnus, but I'm not convinced eliminating from the small hood is a good idea.

That’s why I find this hedging to be especially scummy if my scrrredbear!scum and Somnus!town theory is correct. Look at all the words Radja devotes to the possibility that BEAR might be scum. It reads partnery to me.

I am also unclear how Radja progressed from thinking eliminating in the small hood was good, to thinking eliminating in the big hood was more rewarding, to thinking eliminating in the small hood is actively bad.

=================

As far as BEAR goes, I don’t think the way he’s approached me has been in good faith. It’s a little hard for me to be objective about, but the way he jumped on my earlier wall post is very reminiscent of the types of votes I tend to make as scum when I perceive a townie making a “bad” post. There was a lack of any sort of real engagement or follow up with my post, even in a confrontational manner. Compare to Lucian and Cephrir, who had similarly negative reactions but also seemed genuinely curious and tried to understand me.

I think his most recent post assuming that the contradictions in my most recent posts are some sort of scummy mistake rather than me just having thoughts I’m keeping to myself or changing my mind on certain things is another example of BEAR not seeming to be actually curious about my alignment.

I still think the way he brushed off his Isis progression as just being, her posts got better, a little intentionally obtuse when he told me I was under thinking his original reasoning.

I also think BEAR seems to have a vested interest in not letting a Somnus wagon build up too much momentum because I don’t think BEAR believes anyone ever townreads him more than Lucian. Yes, I know BEAR already voted Somnus, but I don’t think the timing or context of that vote matches a real motivation to kill Somnus.

I’m worried BEAR is using the hood to pocket Lucian right now uncontested by Somnus. I honestly think that’s the only reason to use the small hood with scum still potentially in it. You are *only* hiding information from potential townies.

==============

I think Cakez is not as scummy as Radja now. I don’t know his meta but it sounds like this type of posting is not unusual. I don’t like that he seemed to be self aware that his posts were bad but ehhhh, I feel like I don’t have as much good reason to scum read him. I think Cakez not wanting to talk to Lucian, the most town read person in the game is +++++++town

Cephrir I just flat out town read now. Honestly, Cephrir scum read was born out of a desire to find the deep wolf. I think this was silly now.

Pooky has a cool guy persona to maintain and would never admit to trying at mafia, but I still maintain he’d be trying harder or at least have a higher presence here as scum

Overall, I don’t like how Radja has avoided voting me and also Cakez. Pooky is the safest scum read you can have right now besides Somnus. It reads like he doesn’t want to get his hands dirty.

Big Hood: Isis > Cephrir > Pooky > Cakez >>> Radja

Small Hood: Lucian >>> Somnus > BEAR

I would like to eliminate in [Radja, Somnus, BEAR]. I realize Somnus is probably much more palatable to people then BEAR, so I’m happy to elim there because I think it resolves the neighborhood either way. I also think Somnus being scum kinda clears Radja.

I think Radja/BEAR is the current team but the path of least resistance to getting that team might just be Somnus right now. Happy with any of the three wagons though

[Dannflor]

Actually probably swap Cakez and Pooky

I could see a Somnus/Pooky world

[Lucian]

Because going from "vaguely sorting between the inhabitants in the big hood" to "voting the obvious scum in the small hood" at the time that discussion was just picking up on someone from the big hood, is suspicious to me when you consider the following two facts:
a) The town HAS to eliminate the big-hood scum to win. We do not necessarily need to eliminate the small-hood scum. So town should naturally be focused towards solving the big-hood scum.
b) If someone from the big hood flips, scum has a tough choice to make in the Night (what I said earlier about shooting in the big vs. small hood). If the small hood scum flips? They don't have that dilemma anymore, and are free to shoot in the small hood, while leaving the big-hood pool intact.

Pedit: this is a response to Radja; I see Dannflor dropped a wall which I don't have time to read at the moment, I will get to it soon.

[Dannflor]

no thoughts head empty

Though to be real, this "follow up" after admitting to scumreading Scared Bear and doing nothing about it is atrocious.

I didn’t have time to real post I was buying Halloween decorations

I also feel weird about it because like Somnus IS scummy and honestly it feels bad to eliminate a slot that is posting content over that

So honestly it feels easier to just kill Somnus and let your towniness speak for itself

By the way Lucian, can you describe how BEAR has been interacting with you in the hood? Or paraphrase some stuff you’ve talked about?

[Lucian]

By the way Lucian, can you describe how BEAR has been interacting with you in the hood? Or paraphrase some stuff you’ve talked about?

There has not been much, up until last night it was only early game shitposting and vague sorting here and there (mostly him disliking your earlier big post). Yesterday, there was a bit more solving by both of us, mainly him laying out his problems with you and giving a PoE of {Dannflor, Radja, Pooky}. The reasons against you are pretty much what he laid out in 380, plus a quote of one post where he suspects you're pocketing me.

Notably, that post on scum-you from Scared Bear in the hood happened

before

you dropped your "I think BEAR is mafia" in the main thread, which... Did feel like odd timing and made me raise an eyebrow, but I'm not sure if it's actually indicative of anything.

[Cephrir]

a) The town HAS to eliminate the big-hood scum to win. We do not necessarily need to eliminate the small-hood scum. So town should naturally be focused towards solving the big-hood scum.

Maybe I'm just annoying you at this point but where my disconnect is is I don't think the last sentence of this follows from the first two

[Cephrir]

Eh forget it I've accomplished what I wanted to with our dialogue I'm just beating a dead horse now

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

F7

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I’ll be honest here I’m gonna lock town Dan cuz he said I’m cool

[Lucian]

a) The town HAS to eliminate the big-hood scum to win. We do not necessarily need to eliminate the small-hood scum. So town should naturally be focused towards solving the big-hood scum.

Maybe I'm just annoying you at this point but where my disconnect is is I don't think the last sentence of this follows from the first two

No, that's fine, I'm reading Dannflor's big post now and I feel like I'm cooling down on SirCakez being scum. Especially as multiple people now have called out my reasoning as bad, and obviously they can't all be scum.

[Lucian]

UNVOTE:

I want to think about this game a bit more. Can people tell me what they think of Dannflor's most recent big post? Especially the large hood inhabitants.