I can't tell if this is a bait or if you aren't focused on solving as much as you've been presenting yourself to be (1550, 1552, 1556.)
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
Frog, what makes you think the Fire kill was specifically a TPR hunt? Besides the fact that scum are by default always going to kill rolereads, unless a specific villager’s death benefits them.
This probably isn't the best thing to say but please put me out of my misery and vote Frog. He's really triggering me right now and I just want him to flip
I agree with everything Elements is posting - Papa Zito
It's scummy as fak tho - Gamma Emerald All my completed games
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
In post 1578, Grib wrote:Frog, what makes you think the Fire kill was specifically a TPR hunt? Besides the fact that scum are by default always going to kill rolereads, unless a specific villager’s death benefits them.
Mainly intuition but I can offer a rationale:
I don't know about his read on Bella but his read on me was wrong, his read on BBT was wrong (IIRC) and I suspect his reads on Aisa+Elements were wrong, so I don't think he was killed for his reads. Also, even if his read on Bella was correct, that dynamic between the two of them can be used to create useless drama (as could the dynamic between him and Aisa) so there is a lot of utility to scum for keeping Fire around if they don't read him as TPR.
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
Ok, I didn’t really get much out of that flurry of posts. I think Frog made some ok points.
I might present a case for both scum!Frog and scum!Elements and see what makes the most sense, at least based on BBT interactions and general gameflow.
In the meantime, I kind of wish Bella/Aisa/Eira would contribute a little bit more this phase. Especially on who they want to eliminate. I know it seems like Frog is a done deal but I think it’s still worth discussing.
In post 1586, Grib wrote:In the meantime, I kind of wish Bella/Aisa/Eira would contribute a little bit more this phase. Especially on who they want to eliminate. I know it seems like Frog is a done deal but I think it’s still worth discussing.
I am here now
What are the ok points you think Frog made?
I think Frog is pushing a very specific narrative and I find that scummy.
I'm assuming that the Fire kill was a failed TPR hunt. If anyone wants to challenge me on that claim then come at me.
Fire was a TPR hunt. I think this is like, a valid theory, but, NKA is inherently WIFOMy. Whoever you think the NK implicates, there is a chance scum made that NK exactly to implicate that person, so when we're assuming the NK was a TPR hunt we're already on shaky foundation, only considering one universe out of several.
Spoiler:
With that in mind, what do you think Elements is trying to accomplish on page 61 with this series of questions:
In post 1502, Elements wrote:@Frog, where are your reads at with Aisa and Bella after the last couple of flips?
I'm not saying that any of you are stupid for not noticing this because IIRC I was one of the first to trust Elements on D1. I didn't find much reason to suspect Elements on D1 but I'm
high
certainty that Elements is scum based on their D2 and D3 play. On D2 Elements is the best candidate to be a/the busser on BBT and on D3 Elements is trying to narrow down an investigative TPR. For example, in 1518 Elements is trying to figure out whether Grib specifically has an
inno
on NM. That is like...the only point to that question and I don't think that it can be Town motivated.
I can also say that I'm pretty sure (maybe
moderate
certainty) there is a scum roleblocker and I'm
low
certainty that Elements is the scum roleblocker.
Ok, so now we're arguing scum is so desperate to work out if there is an investigative that Elements spent five posts probing for power roles. An investigative which may or may not exist.
In post 1566, Elements wrote:Frog's entire 'case' on me is that I'm TPR hunting because I've been asking people about their reads. That is literally all you do in mafia. Ask people about their reads. That's ALL there is to do. Frog is trying to push me on the basis of me playing the game.
This is straw manning my argument because
1) that's not my entire point on Elements (Elements BBT bus vote)
2) the questions Elements asked are clearly useful for narrowing down who may have
living
inno reports (1518) and I don't see any solving purpose behind. Also like 1520? I'm pretty sure I'm like lucid and I think Elements is phishing?[...]
2) Personally I see solving intent behind all of Elements's posts.
1) Given this, I don't see "Elements bussed BBT" + "Elements is role phishing" as a very strong case against Elements.
In post 1451, Elements wrote:Disclaimer: I'm going to treat myself as town for this analysis because that takes out a variable and makes this easier for me.
Okay here is what I was looking for earlier. The problem with the VCA Elements has presented is that it doesn't include the impact of their own vote on the wagon movements. I think this disclaimer is an example of lampshading which is NAI (I think?) What's scummy in Elements ISO is the use of VCA to explain their reads because it helps to project the image of being reasonable while not requiring any descriptions for how they feel about given players.
A point which is completely undermined by the fact I actually give reads in separate posts unlike you
...says the active posting scum player to the lurking town slot who accuses them
Look at dat goalpost moving.
Frog: "The post Elements made is LAMISTy. It makes them look busy and gets them out of explaining their reads with actual words."
Elements: "But I give reasons in my other posts. Unlike you."
Frog: "Why are you accusing me of not posting? I am busy"
I did some Enchant meta research a few days ago, but never got around to writing it up until now.
It turns out during Days 1-2 I was misremembering the Enchant meta tell that I was told about. I thought the meta tell was that Enchant posts less as scum. It turns out that the meta tell is that Enchant sounds kinda lifeless and more dry as scum, a bit like the text equivalent of an empty laugh.
I thought his point that townreading Enchant so strongly is something scum mostly do was pretty funny.
I also thought that "yes because the Fire kill was a TPR hunt. This is a misdirection because at the time the kill was made there was no reason for Elements to believe they would be pushed hard today or that they would need a pocket alive to defend them" was, in all fairness, a logical point.
I really don't buy that anyone thinks there's an investigative role lurking about. My first thought after the BBT flip with Firebringer's strong town!Elements read was that he was power-wolfing.
In post 1589, Grib wrote:I thought his point that townreading Enchant so strongly is something scum mostly do was pretty funny.
I also thought that "yes because the Fire kill was a TPR hunt. This is a misdirection because at the time the kill was made there was no reason for Elements to believe they would be pushed hard today or that they would need a pocket alive to defend them" was, in all fairness, a logical point.
It is a logical point that demonstrates at least some awareness of the gamestate, but it doesn’t mean that he did not smoke Fire himself. If you’re scum and need to decide the NK, what’s the first thing you do? Consider the pros and cons of killing each slot.
Yeah uhh it turns out I didn’t read the point before making my post so I thought you were talking about a different post. I wish I could say this is the first time this happened to me.
This might be an unpopular opinion, but there is a tiny chance that Frog and Elements are bussing here. If Frog is scum, his best bet is getting his partner safely to endgame, and the only way I see that happening is 1) limit interactions as much as possible, or 2) hard bus/distance.
I almost don't even want to think of what world we're in if Frog flips town.
I'm just trying to think of who fits as the third mafia besides NM. I don't reeeally think it's Enchant, but that's obviously hard to judge. And I'm still townreading Eira/Bella/Aisa, although it's been a pretty slow day content-wise and I'm getting paranoid at the slight decrease in willingness to gamesolve. Aisa's attempts are noted and appreciated.
Eira just feels like he's perpetually waking up from a long nap, dropping a post, and and falling back asleep again.
I really liked the way Elements interacted with me when we voted each other. It's hard for me to justify having her in my scumpool but I just don't know what I'm missing if one of my townreads is wrong.
Yeah just went and actually read the post and you have a point.
The thing I would say is, it’s not that obvious that Elements would not have been in danger today. Before the flurry of posting today she only had some weak townreads.
Then again, if Elements + Frog decided to kill FB Elements would need to make a hard attempt to town it up, exactly consistent with what’s happened today, so yeah, there is a universe in which they are partners
I’m a bit iffy about Bella. I reread a bit yesterday, and all the soft defending BBT is really a horrible look, there just isn’t anything to really justify a solid townread.
