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Post Post #1525 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:10 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1520, GuiltyLion wrote:@Mastina, ok, even if I grant you that we can just throw out math entirely (which we can't, but whatever), you're still completely missing the how and why. How, specifically, did we drive wagons on each of GL, VPB, Junko?
By posting what you have posted.

That's pretty fucking self-evident.

If you want details then maybe I can show them by catching up.

Your posts are more than just votes.

And don't fucking pretend that you having discredited town players has no influence on the vote--everyone thinks Andante is town, yet nobody is voting her outside of me pretty much.

And that is largely due to the narrative of "Andante is a wildcard".

Which players are pushing that narrative?

That's right!

You are!
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Post Post #1526 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:11 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1521, mastina wrote:Trying to argue that there isn't a difference between statistical theory, and pragmatic reality,
I'm not arguing this at all, this is words you're putting into my mouth

all I've said is it's (objectively) super unlikely the scum team has had the three largest wagons all be on scum members.

And your math is irrelevant to what we're discussing, you're talking about King + PRs which is not the situation here?

I'm too lazy right now to actually think about what would be the ideal mathematical model here but from a very surface level (flawed) idea, the odds of 3 scum out of a 5 person team being chosen out of a group of 21 is 0.75%, not 75%, zero point seven five percent. you can plug in those numbers yourself here

This is a flawed representation because
- these three weren't randomly chosen, we're talking about them cause they were voted / because you scumread them
- being chosen is defined as "received 6 votes at some point" or "been a leading wagon" which is certainly arbitrary, and other people have been wagoned and just haven't met that criteria, so perhaps instead of doing 21 choose 3 it should really be 21 choose (something more than 3)
- you are correct that scum are (probably) trying to get at least one of their members elected king, which ties into point one

regardless, I'd say the odds of all of VPB/GL/JunkoChan being scum is almost certainly less than 10%, and probably a lot closer to 5% if not sub that. You are advocating for a view of the gamestate that is wildly unlikely, and writing a bunch of nonsense that ultimately amounts to "scum are trying to win!" to discount that fact.
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Post Post #1527 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:12 pm

Post by Dannflor »

VOTE: thestatusquo
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Post Post #1528 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:15 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

VOTE: thestatusquo
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Post Post #1529 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:16 pm

Post by JunkoChan »

VOTE: thestatusquo
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Post Post #1530 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:20 pm

Post by UNOwen »

UNVOTE: Junkochan
VOTE: thestatusquo

GuiltyLion, I don't think you answered my question about your Andante read progression.
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Post Post #1531 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:20 pm

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Mastina, GL isn't arguing that you can't scum read 3 people who have been wagoned (I think). I believe the cliff notes is that given the nature of the how voting for king works in this game it should give you pause and maybe cause you to rethink your confidence on those scum reads, especially as a grouping.

Does that seem unreasonable to you? It doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
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Post Post #1532 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:30 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1520, GuiltyLion wrote:all these talented townies in Datisi, TSQ, LLD, Andres just twiddling their thumbs and getting hoodwinked by the masterful deception powers of Dann and GL as we ensure JunkoChan gets wagoned by a bunch of low volume and/or meme posters without even ever arguing for it?
Not by that wording, but basically?

Yes!

I believe that the town lacks cohesion. All of those players have individually given their suspicion on the likes of {GL, Dann, VP Baltar, Junko}.
Individually, pretty much none of them think all four of those names are town.
Individually, pretty much all of them think that grouping has a scum.

And there are many players who are underperforming this game in particular. Maybe the posting restriction is playing part, rl stuff can also play a part, personal struggles in getting this specific playerlist more locked down can also play a part, and overall game activity can play a part, with them wanting more players to be active so that they can get a better view of everyone.

As they are town, as they are an individual, the only way for them to get backing is to convince another individual whose alignment they do not know, to go along with them. Which they are usually pretty good at, but not flawlessly so.

The town have
argued
for different names to be elected.

But they don't have the same influence scum have.
In post 1520, GuiltyLion wrote:you completely ignore the fact that town is also trying to influence the outcome, and they far outnumber the scum team. Like town has three times the voting power
This is again theoretically true by statistics but ignores the base fundamental powers of town versus scum.

Town players do not know which other players are town.
Scum players do.

Each town player is a bloc of one. One, and only one. Because the only player whose alignment they know is their own, they have incredibly limited scope in individual power. They need to convince the players whose alignment they don't even know, to follow them in voting on a player whose alignment they don't know, and who the people they're trying to convince don't know the alignment of, when those players also don't know the alignment of the person making the argument. That's FIVE levels of unknown.
The unknown of the player being voted for by the player campaigning.
The unknown of the alignment the player doing the campaigning has.
The unknown of the alignment of the player being asked to vote.
And the interaction between those three.

Meanwhile, scum know
exactly
what the alignment of every player in that equation is. And, additionally, instead of being a bloc of one, they are a bloc of five. They know precisely which players are making which campaigns for which alignments, and have five times the collective weight of any individual town player.

You're not so fucking stupid as to not know this, GL.

Arguing that the uninformed majority just by virtue of being the majority,
Has more influence inherently off of that numeric superiority,
Is fallacious as fuck because it discards the scum's advantage of being the
informed
.

Each individual town player is an individual;
Each individual scum player is
not an individual
.

If five scum were truly synchronized together, then they effectively have 5 * 4 = 20 voices. (That is, at the highest possible peak performance of sucm, where each scum member was actively contributing to each scum member to make all 5 be at top form and making the best possible posting, then each scum would be more than the sum of their parts and be boosted by their teammates. Obviously, in reality, this is lower, but at their highest theoretical value, that's what they get.)
Whereas town are 16 * 1.

The scum have a far, FAR greater ability to influence the game by leveraging their information to influence the viewpoints of other players, and networking their own posts in the scum PT to provide constant feedback to signal boost their strength.
Not all players are created equal--do you think a town-Not_Mafia provides the same value to town voices as a town-Ellibereth does? Obviously not.
That's obviously true about scum players as well, but scum players have something town players do not. A town-Not_Mafia will always be set in value. He cannot become stronger, because he is alone.
A scum player can become more, because they are
not alone
.
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Post Post #1533 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:31 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: TSQ
YOUR AD HERE

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Post Post #1534 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:32 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1524, Enchant wrote:I think "Person is town but can't be king" more liekely comes from scum who don't want town king, but can't really argue person to be scum, so they appeal to "Not competency".
My my and who would be making those kinds of arguments now, ehh???

Could it be the likes of, ohhhh, sayyy:
In post 1501, GuiltyLion wrote:I think nobody's pushing for Andante because she's so unpredictable. Assuming she's town, neither town/scum want her as king because we have no idea wtf she's going to do from one post to the next.
'Cause it sure seems that way to me!
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Post Post #1535 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:39 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1526, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1521, mastina wrote:Trying to argue that there isn't a difference between statistical theory, and pragmatic reality,
I'm not arguing this at all, this is words you're putting into my mouth
You are by arguing that town majority = scum have less influence than town.

When that's not reflective of reality--that's reflective of theoretical truth via raw statistics, but it is NOT reflective of reality when given the lens of scum's most basic power of information, paired with their oft-overlooked secondary power of
communication
.

There was a time when daytalk was considered so strong for a scum faction
it was valued as strongly as having an extra scum member
.
That three scum with daytalk was effectively four scum without daytalk.

The ability for the
informed
to have open
communication
allows them to make a more collective push. They have a stronger collective power than any single town player to influence the game.

Because each town player is an individual, each town player lacks that collective strength.

And because each scum player is part of a team, each scum player has the collective strength of that team to back them.

Does that mean that the scum actually did?

Not necessarily.

But that circles me back to what I have consistently been saying!
In post 1509, mastina wrote:My argument is far more simply,
I have scumreads on them all,
And arguing that there cannot be three scum being voted is a fallacy.
YOU are the one trying to argue that the scumreads I have are invalid by them all being majority wagons.

Meanwhile, *I* am saying I think they are scum simply by virtue of having formed reads on them!
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Post Post #1536 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:41 pm

Post by Titus »

Chaos Titus: Ooh a flashwagon drawing from both wagons. Let's ensure they're tied.
Town Titus: I should at least compare their reads.
Chaos Titus: Or nuke them all!
Town Titus: We're voting on someone who is town .
Chaos Titus: Why don't we force them to agree to work together?
Town Titus: That sounds like cohesive, rational thought which I don’t want to do on day 1.
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Post Post #1537 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:44 pm

Post by JunkoChan »

In post 1536, Titus wrote:Chaos Titus: Ooh a flashwagon drawing from both wagons. Let's ensure they're tied.
Town Titus: I should at least compare their reads.
Chaos Titus: Or nuke them all!
Town Titus: We're voting on someone who is town .
Chaos Titus: Why don't we force them to agree to work together?
Town Titus: That sounds like cohesive, rational thought which I don’t want to do on day 1.
that makes you like our 10th scum member according to mastina

your evil plan was genius Titus
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Post Post #1538 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:44 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1531, Thestatusquo wrote:Mastina, GL isn't arguing that you can't scum read 3 people who have been wagoned (I think). I believe the cliff notes is that given the nature of the how voting for king works in this game it should give you pause and maybe cause you to rethink your confidence on those scum reads, especially as a grouping.
Does that seem unreasonable to you? It doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
If the reason for throwing doubt on my scumreads is a fallacy of "they are the main votes for being King, do you think that the main three votes for being King are all scum?", then yes, that is unreasonable, by virtue of being a fallacy.

My scumreads are based off of play--throwing doubt on the scumreads by using a fallacy based off of statistical theoretical odds which ignores pragmatic application in the game thread and has no influence from the way the game has played out,

Is in fact unreasonable to me.

If GL wants to argue my scumreads are unlikely from a play-based perspective he can be my guest!

But he isn't.

And that's the fucking issue.
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Post Post #1539 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:48 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

FlavorImage

Aegon's Landing

The war began in 2 BC when Aegon Targaryen and his two sister-wives Rhaenys and Visenya landed with fewer than 1,600 men at the mouth of the Blackwater Rush next to three hills. Upon the highest hill, Aegon started construction of the Aegonfort, a wooden motte and bailey fort as his first claim to the mainland of Westeros. The Targaryens were supported by Houses Celtigar, Massey, and Velaryon.

House Rosby yielded Rosby to Rhaenys, while House Stokeworth surrendered to Visenya after Vhagar used dragonfire on the roof of Stokeworth.

Aegon's first test came form Lord Darklyn of Duskendale and Lord Mooton of Maidenpool, who joined their power and marched south with three thousand men. Aegon sent Orys Baratheon to meet them on the march, whist he descended on them from above with Balerion. After both lords were slain, Darklyn's son and Mooton's brother, Jon Mooton, yielded their castles and swore their swords to House Targaryen.

Queen Visenya placed a Valyrian steel circlet, studded with rubies, on her brother's head and Queen Rhaenys hailed him as "Aegon, First of His Name, King of All Westeros, and Shield of His People."





Coronation Vote - Day OneWith twenty one players alive - it requires eleven votes to make a decision. Plurality rules will apply at the deadline.

Thestatusquo [6]:
Bellaphant, Dannflor, GuiltyLion, Junkochan, Unowen, VP Baltar
VP Baltar [5]:
Datisi, Lukewarm, Andresvmb, Charloux, Titus
Junkochan [4]:
Firebringer, ProfessorDrapion, Enchant, PenguinPower,
Andante [3]:
mastina, Rhaenyra, Andante,
GuiltyLion [2]:
thestatusquo, Dwlee99,
Lady Lambdadelta [1]:
Lady Lambdadelta


not voting [0]:




Deadline:


(expired on 2022-11-19 23:48:35)



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Post Post #1540 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:51 pm

Post by Titus »

In post 1537, JunkoChan wrote:
In post 1536, Titus wrote:Chaos Titus: Ooh a flashwagon drawing from both wagons. Let's ensure they're tied.
Town Titus: I should at least compare their reads.
Chaos Titus: Or nuke them all!
Town Titus: We're voting on someone who is town .
Chaos Titus: Why don't we force them to agree to work together?
Town Titus: That sounds like cohesive, rational thought which I don’t want to do on day 1.
that makes you like our 10th scum member according to mastina

your evil plan was genius Titus
Do the three of them have read walls? I'm too lazy to look but I want to do something productive other than read.
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Post Post #1541 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:53 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1538, mastina wrote:If GL wants to argue my scumreads are unlikely from a play-based perspective he can be my guest!
I mean I can (and perhaps will) do that too, it just seems like a whole lot more effort than pointing out the simple fact that your reads require a world where all three of the first three major King wagons were on scum and that's very unlikely a priori. To be completely frank I did not expect you to resist that point to such a degree because to me it feels obvious and indisputable.
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Post Post #1542 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:55 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1177, Enchant wrote:Sorry, forgot that you(VP Baltar) are mafia and talked with you again, but i called out your hypocrisy.
It will not happen next time.
Enchant is town. <3
In post 1157, JunkoChan wrote:I kind of tr Andres but I don't want him as king, he can be council or something
For the record, the main reason I am voting Andante instead of Andres is because Andres said he didn't want to be King.

If he was open to the idea, fuck yes I'd vote him because he is just as town as Andante is.

But, Andante wants the King and Andres doesn't and with both equally as town, Andante is the better vote.

(Personally I believe both would do about as well in the King position, but Andres would receive less resistance. It's just that because Andres doesn't want the job, voting him as King would be a bad idea.)
In post 1165, JunkoChan wrote:
In post 1164, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1158, JunkoChan wrote:Like i said to Guiltylion I don't sr Andres, just don't feel like having him as king
Why's that?
actually because of interactions with you, I don't want you near the PR's
I feel you your intent as pockety
Alright, so this post actually makes me think Junko not scum with VP Baltar.

Prior interactions were easily enough scum theater, but this one doesn't feel like it has that deliberate intent.
In post 1178, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:And... Yes. First king being town is still the most important thing in this game IMO.
Lady Lambdadelta:
If the first king being town is the MOST important thing,
What do you think about the players arguing against electing a universally-townread player in favor of less-townread players?

Players who are voting for players that
could
be town, but are not nearly as universally so?
Players who are insisting on not voting for players guaranteed to be town?
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Post Post #1543 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:58 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1541, GuiltyLion wrote:to me it feels obvious and indisputable.
Sure is, from a mathematical perspective reliant entirely on theory.

Sure isn't, based on actual practice accounting for the scum tools in the game versus the town's restrictions/limitations based on the weaknesses of the town that act as force dividers and the strengths of the scum that act as force multipliers.

Granted, I don't think JunkoChan is scum with VP Baltar now, anyway, so like. That means there was at least one town in there anyway. But that was a conclusion I made based off of play--not a conclusion based off of a fallacy.
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Post Post #1544 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:00 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1543, mastina wrote:Granted, I don't think JunkoChan is scum with VP Baltar now, anyway, so like. That means there was at least one town in there anyway. But that was a conclusion I made based off of play--not a conclusion based off of a fallacy.
:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

which of them do you think is more likely to be town?
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Post Post #1545 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:02 pm

Post by Titus »

There are seven slots that need to be filled

LLD, GuiltyLion, VP, Junko, TsQ, Adante, DannFloor, Unowen have all gotten at least 3 votes to be king. Yeah I know that's 8 people.

This sounds like a perfect pool no one is happy with. Of course, you can always include me for ignorant chaos.
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Titus Academy

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Post Post #1546 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:03 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1182, Lukewarm wrote:tbh, most of this feels like GL is arguing "Because Luke is not explaining why scum!LLD would NEVER do these things, it is BAD and FAKE that luke would think that LLD is more likely to be town this game"

Which is dumb, because I don't think that there is very much that scum!LLD would NEVER do. That is not how I sort anyone, because scum can do literally anything.

*Could* scum!LLD out the numbers that outlined scum being closer to winning then anyone seemed aware of? Yes.
*Could* scum!LLD suggest the popcorn plan, which takes agency away from her determining the king? Yes.
*Could* scum!LLD stick to her "I don't explain town reads" thing, even when she would want to be in a position to sway people? Yes.

I was making the argument that scum!LLd seemed Less Likely to do each of these things, and therefore her having done all of these things left me to feel like she is more likely to be town.

I have also found that people who make arguments adjacent to "unless you are arguing that someone would/could never do it as scum, you cannot call them a townread" are scum
I agree with all of this and am locktowning Lukewarm for it.

His explanation for the LLD read is also my reason for half of my townreads, loosely LLD among them.

His theory that scum are more likely to make the argument "unless you are arguing that someone would/could never do it as scum, you cannot call them a townread", is also valid in my experience, and affirms that, yes, GuiltyLion is in fact scum.

Tbh I'm beginning to be more certain of my GuiltyLion scumread than I am of the Dannflor one, but that's probably due to a lack of Dannflor posting. (I should note that the large lack of Dannflor posting is in fact suspect.)
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Post Post #1547 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:05 pm

Post by Thestatusquo »

does anyone have a mastina town game I can read thats fairly recent? It's been a while.
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Post Post #1548 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:06 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1543, mastina wrote:
In post 1541, GuiltyLion wrote:to me it feels obvious and indisputable.
Sure is, from a mathematical perspective reliant entirely on theory.

Sure isn't, based on actual practice accounting for the scum tools in the game versus the town's restrictions/limitations based on the weaknesses of the town that act as force dividers and the strengths of the scum that act as force multipliers.

Granted, I don't think JunkoChan is scum with VP Baltar now, anyway, so like. That means there was at least one town in there anyway. But that was a conclusion I made based off of play--not a conclusion based off of a fallacy.
I agree with this btw. In theory, three scum leading wagons in this game is not impossible at all and should not be discounted as an idea. Based on the actual game though it is not what happened.
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Post Post #1549 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:14 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1544, GuiltyLion wrote:which of them do you think is more likely to be town?
JunkoChan, obviously?

JunkoChan individually looks to me like scum, but:
1: Has many players defending her as town, which makes me question my read there (this is not hypocritical, I should note, as there's a difference between being influenced by the perspective of others, and arguing that the perspective of others means that something must be true. The former is a healthy thing, the latter is a fallacy);
2: Does not fit most of the established play pattern the rest of my scumreads has;
3: Has my scumread be much much weaker for much much weaker reasoning;
4: Was mostly me not seeing why they would be town.

Which, yaknow. Is also something obvious from a play-based perspective, namely that I have been quite consistent about my stances on both of them.

Do I think JunkoChan is town from this?
No, not necessarily--but it was the first thing which made me see JunkoChan as
possible
to be town, by virtue of not being scum with VP Baltar. I would be immediately suspect of her again if VP Baltar wasn't scum since it doesn't look like a town post, it looks like a "not scum with VP Baltar" post, and I'm pretty damn sure VP Baltar is scum, so...
In post 1187, Charloux wrote:
In post 1114, VP Baltar wrote:Master of coin is actually a very powerful position because it dictates if the other positions can act or not. If you can't see the scum benefit of that, well..
Mod revealed the role in post 675 AFAIK, and fire was deliberate to be either a warden of the south or master of coin since the beginning.
I see it as a hyped town and not at all scum indicative.
It can be scum indicative if scum knew all the roles beforehand though.
Wait this is fucking huge. I want you to think about that thought for a second and think about it from a different angle--not Firebringer knowing the roles in advance, but rather, what if someone let slip that the scum knew about them in advance?

That is to say:
VP Baltar scumslipped here.


Firebringer was advocating for the position of coinmaster from the getgo--before the roles were known to the town.
VP Baltar argued that Firebringer did this as a scum action, by wanting the power of the coinmaster role for scum.
But the town didn't know the coinmaster power from the getgo.

If the scum did, then scum are more likely to argue a player wanted the position with a scum agenda, because scum have access to information the town does not have, and it affects their perspective on things.

So VP Baltar arguing that Firebringer wanted the position of coinmaster,
Is him scumslipping that scum knew about the power of coinmaster in advance.

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