Large Normal 241: Random Pictures and Other Stuff | Endgame

[fireisredsir]

i wonder if we'll get a flip by the time i wake up in the morning

[fireisredsir]

sorry i really just thought it was frog

i still don't really have any good idea which person im wrongly townreading. none of them feel very believable to me so im lost

if you want to give me some time to think it over before my death i can try but idk, even if i come up with something i wouldn't really recommend sheeping my reads over scamper's and datisi's

i wish i could say that i was excited to solve this and figure out the truth but im really not

i still will at least try tho

[fireisredsir]

i think ive very often trusted others' reads over mine, especially after being repeatedly wrong. and ive also at times been p accepting of my fate

[fireisredsir]

neither had much of any reason for me being scum they just couldn't rule me out of the poe which i think is fair

[fireisredsir]

fair

[fireisredsir]

i think i feel least good about my reasons for townreading DV. i sort of preflip cleared him earlier due to his pushes on GL and frog, but they can't be scum together, so

i do still feel like a lot of the stuff with GL is kinda sus, but a big part of it also was how he handled HEM vs obscure, and that just reads as a lot more uninformed knowing that both were actually scum rather than just obscure. he'd probably be my second choice tho

ausuka i actually have had some creeping doubts about a few various points gut feeling like tmi due to a seemingly unsupported confidence but her reads are probably just a lot better than mine lol. if she's scum she has gotten way better than her previous scum game in terms of sounding believable which idk if i would really expect after not playing scum for 2 years

shea i just don't think is scum. i don't really want to get into it. ik he's next in the poe but i don't think my reasons will convince anyone not to flip him anyway so whatever

dann feels pure like all game to me now. just feels like he's constantly trying to find scum. very well played if scum

i kinda doubt it's titus bc wtf is an even night serial killer

[fireisredsir]

People I am considering as scum currently:

Juice, HEM, Aristeia, Firebringer, Gamma, GuiltyLion, Skitter, VP Baltar

But I don't feel strongly enough about any of them right in this moment to make a proper (or even a fake) push.

like dv the strongest reasons for him being town imo are things like this where he puts the whole scumteam in his scumreads

which. yes that makes me doubt. but one of you is scum and i think that these kind of things are a lot easier for scum to get miscleared on than, like, playing around wagons in an uninformed way or being unaware of what will help scum wincon

[fireisredsir]

and like of that list he pushes GL

and maybe he's right idk

[fireisredsir]

[Ausuka, scamper, xofelf, ydrasse]
[HEM, Aristeia, fireisred, obscure, relly]
[Datisi, Dannflor, Firebringer]
[Nero Cain, VP Baltar, GuiltyLion, Frogsterking]
[Gamma, Marci, Conman]

and when it turns into a readlist later it looks a lot more neatly spread out

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

For me the deciding factor is multiple instances where Gamma has posted in such a way that is displaying outrage/disbelief in response to a certain/person event that is actually benign to the point where I struggle to believe that she can feel so passionate about it.

798

2111 through 2114

And more recently the ??? at marci

gamma does that, like, all the time though

I don't have the luxury of having played multiple recent games with gamma, but from games I am aware it matches my impression of scum-gamma more than town-gamma. If there are equivalent examples of gamma-town doing it I would be willing to reevaluate.

PEdit: thanks for the link, but it is not quite an example of what I mean

VP I also had the thought of a lot of GL’s posts being busy work, but I don’t think it’ll take off Day 1 (also I probably need more time on that read)

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ConmanMick

I think CMM is more likely scum than Gamma at this point.

this sequence is kinda scummy. votes gamma over something that is very characteristic of gamma as either alignment, waits for someone to let him know that it's NAI, and then pushes a town wagon instead

[fireisredsir]

deasvail

- around the competing wagons of hem/deas, obscure was having a really really awkward read on hem (lol, 4096), and instead tried to help push deasvail (4109) (s)
- prior to the vc in 4314, which had s/s gamma/hem wagons, he voted gamma. scum is less likely to vote the lesser scum wagon in this scenario (same as dann) (s)
- the vc in 5145 is townie for deasvail (s)
- obscure was cosistently pushing deasvail throughout the whole game, and that is probably not s/s (s)
- csf's vote on deas in 5455 and the vc in 5457 - csf knew that both her and tweetie are on borrowed time this game and would flip eventually. so csf was probably trying to push a cw to tweetie to at least get one town flip there (and she was pushing deas) (s)
- on page 33, gamma and hem are having a shitfight, that we now know is s/s - in that light, don't think deas is scum because gamma kept ignoring his vote/scumread on her (d)
- page 51 is the first time that deas interacts with scum about the read on me (reminder deas was townreadign me early, hem gamma vpb were either scumreadign me or seeing me in a negative light) (d; scamper told me this is stupid because deas was rather inactive and didn't have opportunity to react, i told him to fuck off) (we didn't actually have that conversation i would never tell him to fuck off)
- 2304 probably not a bus vote by deas (d)

ok let's look at these

like not trying to minimize these too much but basically all of them are just, scum would PROBABLY be pushing town wagons at these various points, and so deas is town bc he was either being pushed or he was willing to vote scum. and i think scum could have easily had longer term goals in mind here. clearly there were points where there were 2 leading scum wagons, and scum were on both, and they were ok with that. so idk why it's not believable that they would do it with deas too

if obscure legit was struggling with the game i don't think it's unlikely that his partners would be like "hey you can just push me, come on it'll be great!". id probably do that

the only point that isn't along those lines is the one about gamma ignoring deas' vote on her. which yea, that's true, gamma is treating deas differently than she's treating another scum partner. but i don't think it's reasonable to expect scum to treat all of their partners in the same way? gamma clearly had more of a rapport with hem and maybe just felt more comfortable theatreing there

[fireisredsir]

csf voting deas when MT was for sure going down is probably more +scum for deas than it is +town, i don't think csf ever would have expected to get a miselim off there, she probably is already on antispew

[fireisredsir]

It's possible, is there anything in particular leading you to consider that?

the vc led me to consider it bc i think deas is scum, but it doesn't really feel like scum are piling on obscure's wagon or anything? the vibes rn to me at least just kinda feel like mostly active town who mostly feel similarly about stuff and then who knows what scum are doing

it doesn't feel like scum are in control of anything here

another possibility is that both wagons are town but then like i have no idea who scum even would be at that point. maybe i do have a wrong townread somewhere, idk

at least that was my thought process on seeing the vc

it also feels to me like there is a weird resistance to deas going through but the people who want an obscure lim probably feel the same about obscure and so like... my thought was maybe they're both right

i haven't really seen a single convincing reason for obscure being scum tho so

THE HATERS DIDN'T LISTEN, I WAS ON TO SOMETHING HERE

[fireisredsir]

the game felt exactly like scum was not in control at all and they were just treading water

the deas wagon was almost all town, only obscure (and technically possibly ausuka) was on it (and me but i town)

scum was just doing what they could and making the best of a bad situation where they're kinda universally poe scumread, and crossvoting in the hopes that people looking back later would decide that one of the wagons must be town

which is exactly what people did

[fireisredsir]

are you like, confident dv is scum at this point? this seems kind of incongruent with earlier where you were like sure frog is scum and dv was just the person you townread the least somewhat

the all caps was mostly joking

im much more confident than i had any expectation of being at the start of the day, i didn't have any hope of finding a scumread i felt good about

but im also like, less confident than i was about frog lmao so take that as you will

[fireisredsir]

i mean fwiw like i havent been feeling like i have especially good reads LMAO?

i know this is a wierd thing to ask about but can u explain that cos like

it kind of feels like my reads would only be good this game if you're a wolf >.>

uhh no i think you've had good reads? but like it's mostly certain places where you've just had... way more confidence than i would have had there.

like vp d1. and the eiralox lack of response being NAI. and shea entrance being towny. and MT being polarized and scummy. and frog being too easy of a push

all of those, when you posted about them at the time i was like... why do you feel this so strongly? i don't get it. and part of me reads those kind of things as possible tmi. especially cause all of them were right. but you also could just be right

i think those were the main ones but there were probably others where i felt that vibe

[fireisredsir]

in this exact moment actually i would say im pretty confident

but guaranteed once dv shows up and posts again ill be like oh nooo he's townyyy

frog does not have that same effect on me which maybe is why my confidence remained mostly unwavering

[fireisredsir]

i think those types of reads feel less meaningful in the grand scheme of things than your main scumread but they're still just as important (and maybe even more difficult to get right)

you haven't even like pushed me at all so it's not like your wrong read on me is hurting anything, besides maybe not allowing you to see other possibilities

[fireisredsir]

and maybe it was less that you were super confident in them and more that i was on the opposite side of like all of them and so when you argued the points with me i was like, does she know something i don't?

i think its probably like a pride thing LOL i subconsciously don't want to admit that i could be wrong that many times when the person who got it right has all the same info as me

[fireisredsir]

actually i was on the same side about MT but still like i think the level to which you emphasized her being polarized felt exaggerated past the point where i agreed with it, and that felt weird

[fireisredsir]

another example from someone else actually is deas immediately strongly townreading shea on entrance

that was another case where i saw that and was like... hmm, i feel like this person reached this conclusion a little to easily

and his response was like "well maybe i just have a good read?"

and i was like ok fair enough

but i think it actually was tmi

[fireisredsir]

I’m uh pretty sure tweet is scum and attempts to leave me open as an option seem suspicious

Unless people think I’m scum with the gamma slot…

ah yes this post

[fireisredsir]

wow ok i thought that big case was pretty cool i guess not

sobs

it was but like you haven't exactly been pushing much since then

[fireisredsir]

pedit: shrug i mean some players just have like zero capacity to play scum beyond a basic level and are easy to read through that and i mean, check my game history if you want, i know what it's like to be a polarised player in almost exactly the way tweet is lol

i already did check your game history :>

but my point is that tweet isn't that at all, i think she's pretty good at scum actually, it's just that she's capable of being nutty as town on replace in and here she was underwhelming

anyway this isn't really relevant to the game at this point

[fireisredsir]

fire, what has created a sense of almost-passion regarding me being scum? With me being town (obviously this is not clear to people rn but I'll likely be flipped sometime soon), the progression seems strange in some ways. This might be unfair because I've felt a sense of apathy in regards to the game too, but for someone that has worked well with me before, there seems to be a lack of expression from you as to why I'm different from when you've played with me before.

Also I don't want to eliminate Obscure at this point.

i mean i do think you're very different, but i probably am as well, and I don't think that's something that anyone else is going to care about

i don't feel the same drive to solve things. you seem a little more stiff and inflexible, especially when being questioned, whereas in the previous game it felt like you were easy to talk to and converse with

i felt glimpses of that early on but it's kinda disappeared

idk ive already lost the brief moment of almost-passion that i had, im weak

all of these points literally still apply btw

he's just not really engaged with trying to solve the game in the way that, for example, dann is

[fireisredsir]

Looking back over end of day 2, Cat and Frog were the most vocal about exploring options other than tweet. Cat actually voted for me, which I think is much more likely from town because tweet was likely being eliminated at that stage and it’s just not a good look. Frog is reasonably likely to be town too because of the messy way in which (from an external perspective) he was very blatantly trying to make something else happen, but I am less certain on Frog-town than Cat-town because scum-Frog may have felt encouraged by town-Cat pushing for something else to happen.

I think that TSQ’s play end of D2 is scummy in a vacuum, but I’m not sure if it changes my overall read of them.

It’s also worthwhile considering the possibility that this was just a situation with low scum presence. S_S had earlier seemed to be encouraging the idea of a wagon on me without wanting to commit to it himself and while I probably think obscure is less likely scum than S_S, it is definitely possible.

Dease, I'm confused why Cat is even being considered in 5732.

I don’t take anything for granted

also this post expressing a read on csf is weird to make when everyone else is treating csf as conftown

(shoutout to frog for calling that out, sorry buddy)

[fireisredsir]

The stakes do not quite feel high enough, nor is the game whittled down enough for me to go into ultra solvey mode. I really am at the point where I feel like S_S is a good enough elim.

now would be a good time

[fireisredsir]

You guys really do suck at getting reads in this gamestate so I recommend closing your eyes and randomly picking between fireisred and dease until the game is over.

same

sheep the dead frog

yeet me and dv

[fireisredsir]

he does vote scum a decent amount but it doesn't feel like it's necessarily in an uninformed way to me

like he has gamma as his designated correct scumread alongside 2 or 3 other town, and mostly pushes the town except for when it feels like he needs to be on a building gamma wagon. then once tweet replaces in he kinda goes all in on the push, which i wouldn't be surprised if tweet said to bus her

he joins the hem wagon briefly when it seems inevitable but then hops back off p quickly

he does exactly the same to mena

he votes csf once she's outed, obviously

the votes aren't town pushing for the elimination of people that they think are scum. they're positional votes, all of them

[fireisredsir]

deas... not sure. i would like to believe that he's just town who was right on gamma and probably on SS too. i think if for some reason he was bussing gamma then he would be likely to continue in the manner that he did. im not gonna give him minus points for not doing the fairly natural town thing of kinda stepping back and giving the replacement a slightly clean slate, bc his approach was correct and probably just better in general, but i think it does differ a little bit from how others approached it. fine with treating as town for now anyway

still accurate

no longer fine with treating as town

[fireisredsir]

she's just town imo

holy mother of quick conclusions

it's ok to have quick conclusions when they're right :>

how do you know its right?

because im informed of everyone's alignment, ofc

was going to write a fire iso post but i just want to quote this

who's tmi now FOOL

its me im the fool

at least i was correct on that read tho!

[fireisredsir]

if you want to give me some time to think it over before my death i can try but idk, even if i come up with something i wouldn't really recommend sheeping my reads over scamper's and datisi's

i fully take this back btw

scamper and datisi are DEAD and they were WRONG

and they're probably in the dead thread rn wanting me to be elimmed which is okay but after you do that listen to me instead and lim dv imo

[fireisredsir]

and ig if thats wrong then you can listen to them and elim shea maybe whatever idk

[fireisredsir]

fireisredsir

- 5499 is oof (s)
- fire going "maybe both wagons are right" at the time in 5145, when the wagons are obscure and deas, while he himself is pushing deas, is horrible (d)

literally their only two reasons for me being scum are things that are Good, Actually

get outta here ur dead

[fireisredsir]

there's a healthy level of sheeping the dead and i think most people don't do it enough

but its also very possible to do it too much, i think i sometimes do that

obviously in this specific situation im biased but still

[fireisredsir]

ok ig i should like maybe sleep bye

[fireisredsir]

ok yea as expected i wake up in the morning and no longer have that confidence

i don't really like the calling out gamma for the obvious thing, voting gamma when relly does, and then just kinda using scamper's read to backtrack on it

like this for example, was something i found suspicious from deas, but apparently i did it too, so idk maybe thats not a good reason to suspect someone

[fireisredsir]

The compilation of quoted me-posts is more aligned with scum looking for material to post about and build a scumread out of than town working things out. The "a-ha! It's DV!" component feels conveniently timed because none of those thoughts from fire are really.... new thoughts. When I made the "unless people think I'm scum with Tweet" post, fire was the first to point out that I still could be, as if fire was saving the push on me for when the masonry was no longer around to shoot it down.
Recent things such as the caps post that concerned Ausuka and "get outta here ur dead" seem like fake attempts to appear 'loose' and casual because they are not at all consistent with how fire had been playing before. Obviously fire's joking, but I just don't believe based on earlier posts that fire would think to make those posts. It screams to me of trying something new, which is what fire as scum needs to do here in order to survive.

most are not new thoughts, they're just like compiling reasons that i hope people will read and then assess for themselves after im dead

i had actually forgotten about a lot of them though so

the reason i think it's you is that the reasons i had for townreading you just don't really do it for me anymore. i think the like vca type stuff is the only thing that looks good and i think when you look at your play as a whole it feels like you are aware of that and are consistently playing in a way that will look good from surface level vca type analysis

[fireisredsir]

he does vote scum a decent amount but it doesn't feel like it's necessarily in an uninformed way to me

like he has gamma as his designated correct scumread alongside 2 or 3 other town, and mostly pushes the town except for when it feels like he needs to be on a building gamma wagon. then once tweet replaces in he kinda goes all in on the push, which i wouldn't be surprised if tweet said to bus her

he joins the hem wagon briefly when it seems inevitable but then hops back off p quickly

he does exactly the same to mena

he votes csf once she's outed, obviously

the votes aren't town pushing for the elimination of people that they think are scum. they're positional votes, all of them

also ignoring the fact that you could say this about most town players and their votes, just pretending that they're doing it as scum instead of as town

like it's presented as a reason to scumread me but... someone could just as easily be flitting between town and scum wagons as town?

For example:

"

he joins the hem wagon briefly when it seems inevitable but then hops back off p quickly

"

everyone hopped off the hem wagon. I won't claim credit for scumreading hem but this is just added material to make me sound bad that is not actually considering what my alignment is likely to be

no i actually don't think this is true at all, i think every other player currently alive has played around scum wagons in a way that looks much less informed

this is actually probably my most important point i just didn't make it very well maybe but GL and dann at least pls look for yourself at some point

your trajectories on flipped scum feel designed around being in the right place when you need to be, and not naturally evolving town thought

[fireisredsir]

but GL and dann at least pls look for yourself at some point

I feel so excluded

you already said you'd look at dv! they hadn't been here yet

[fireisredsir]

Spoiler: hem vote/unvote

HEM, please claim

no

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

did you just hammer

i doubt it

also i need to go

UNVOTE: humaneatingmonkey

okay

ill be back i really need to get off this site

if what i did was 2 anti-town 4 everyone then i guess that's my bad i just wanted to be part of this game

like dv framing this as equivalent to everyone else hopping off hem after he claimed is just shady af

[fireisredsir]

thank you for trying fire if you are town

...I think I still wanna kill you tho

thats ok ik i already burned my "elim this person first" card on frog

but i heavily recommend you consider whether your reasons to townread dv are good enough or not

[fireisredsir]

why does he hop off there as scum?

idk tbh, show that he's willing to vote there but not actually want to leave his vote there while he's gone from the thread?

like you could argue he'd want to leave it there if he knew hem was going to claim at some point but maybe that wasn't the plan yet, or maybe they knew that hem was going to have to leave thread too, or maybe he thought when he voted that hem was ready to claim and he actually didn't want to yet

but i think it's a weird interaction to come from town so

[fireisredsir]

why tho

if mt is going to die and csf is on antispew then they probably want to set it up so it looks like she's pushing a town miselim

it's not a town supported wagon it's not going anywhere

[fireisredsir]

i can't believe that scum actually expected mt to live with that claim lol

[fireisredsir]

mena also pushed dv and me mostly i think

flip us both

[fireisredsir]

There's important VCs I need to revisit from when DV was a wagon. however I kinda gutfeel obscure wouldn't spend all his time tunneling and calling out a partner on principle

idk why he wouldn't when he had little to no thread influence, nobody really paid attention to his dv suspicion and he never really led a push there

he's clearly at least a competent scum player and would probably know that's a fine thing to do to set a partner up to endgame

[fireisredsir]

why does he hop off there as scum?

idk tbh, show that he's willing to vote there but not actually want to leave his vote there while he's gone from the thread?

like you could argue he'd want to leave it there if he knew hem was going to claim at some point but maybe that wasn't the plan yet, or maybe they knew that hem was going to have to leave thread too, or maybe he thought when he voted that hem was ready to claim and he actually didn't want to yet

but i think it's a weird interaction to come from town so

I think the obvious explanation here is that I wanted hem to claim but wasn’t comfortable leaving it in hammer range while I was away for an extended period of time?

How is that weird?

its weird bc it doesn't really feel like that at all? like you voted after he said no to claiming and then unvoted right away. the vote didn't add any pressure bc you didn't like ask again to claim or anything, you just unvoted

i don't get what the point of voting was

[fireisredsir]

I understand being down on yourself for having bad reads or not being obv town enough or some other reason

I understand not wanting to fight your own elimination if you think the game isn't that hard anyway

to an extent

but I still think fire is just all *too* willing to let himself be eliminated and I can't shake the feeling he is trying to look town more than he actually believes that its fine if he goes here

I had the same feeling last day phase and I feel like he should have at least a twinge more urgency to not be eliminated now that we're one day closer to lylo and... I don't see it

i mean i would rather not die but like idk what you expect me to do

im surprised ive lived this long i was like begging for death a month ago

i kinda feel like I've outstayed my welcome and like multiple people who i think are town have been stuck on me for days and maybe if i died then they'd be able to solve better

im not like that down on myself rn or even really thinking the game is that easy. i just, like, accept that there's not really anything i can say that will convince people im town. and that probably the most useful thing i can do is try to figure out who i think is scum since im a day ahead of the rest of you, and i won't be here to talk things out then

and like maybe this is dumb but part of me kinda thinks it would just be bad play for town to let me live here so like

its kinda hard for me to encourage that

i fundamentally disagree with the people who believe that every town is findable as town in every game if you just post enough or analyze enough

[fireisredsir]

i don't really have a good towncase for myself but i can try if you want me to ig

[fireisredsir]

the reality of the game is that if you argued hard that you were town you would probably survive this round. because people are looking for reasons to change their mind.

i just don't really see it that way

like i don't think im being defeatist its just survival is not really my mindset here?? which ik you're going to say is lamist but its true

but ig its true that (maybe cocky) i do believe that if i were scum in this position i would win. and i would probably go about that, in part, by towncasing myself. so maybe it's worth it to play like i could if i were scum in order to survive bc then maybe we'll lim who i think is scum instead? like yea i guess i could do that

i just hate strongarming things so i really don't want to but i guess it's part of the game

[fireisredsir]

i think my reasons to townread everyone else are good

i didn't revisit my reasons to townread dv yesterday bc i was focused on frog and that was a mistake

[fireisredsir]

i did already talk about how i revisited everyone else and reaffirmed my reasons to townread them, yes

[fireisredsir]

and yes that would be part of why i think dv is scum which is why i talked about it

and no it would not be the same mistake as last time bc i did it this time

[fireisredsir]

but ig its true that (maybe cocky) i do believe that if i were scum in this position i would win

This feels a little bit like a lie to me, or at the very least is incongruous with every other way you've presented yourself in terms of your confidence and mindset and worldview this game.

i think i am better at scum than at town idk how my confidence in my scumplay is related to my confidence in my townplay in this game

this gamestate is winnable by literally anyone as scum who chooses to put the requisite effort into doing so and is good at convincing people not to want to lim them

[fireisredsir]

skill issue tbh

[fireisredsir]

i do still feel like a lot of the stuff with GL is kinda sus, but a big part of it also was how he handled HEM vs obscure, and that just reads as a lot more uninformed knowing that both were actually scum rather than just obscure. he'd probably be my second choice tho

shea i just don't think is scum. i don't really want to get into it. ik he's next in the poe but i don't think my reasons will convince anyone not to flip him anyway so whatever

ok

can you actually get into your read on shea? I feel like it's important if you're town

also like saying GL is kinda sus and he's your second choice doesn't seem congruent with how you're behaving this phase

yea i can talk about some stuff. probably tomorrow idk if i feel like digging tonight

[fireisredsir]

I like don't know how to make a big deal of this but do you really not see why its relevant when you were using it as an argument for how you would approach the game differently as scum than you are right now?

i wasn't using it as an argument for how i would approach it differently

i was using it to reason my way into thinking that maybe dann is right and i should try harder to survive as town here

[fireisredsir]

But I thought you already did it? Enough to not need to worry about me being scum over DV? Why would you need to dig?

i would be pulling quotes or posts probably if i wanted it to convince anyone?

[fireisredsir]

true i guess but i don't think anyone should be townreading me for that so it wasn't like an argument in that sense

[fireisredsir]

im not in a great mood rn sorry if thats leaking through at all i don't mean to be rude or anything

i can try to towncase myself and be more explicit on reasons for GL and shea tomorrow if people think that would be useful

[fireisredsir]

it's also not really relevant but I think Dann is radiating towniness on these past couple of pages. past couple of day phases really, feels like he's trying the hardest out of all of us

strong agree

[fireisredsir]

But I thought you already did it? Enough to not need to worry about me being scum over DV? Why would you need to dig?

i would be pulling quotes or posts probably if i wanted it to convince anyone?

OK but give us the broad strokes? It's a strong enough reason to you that you are comfortable pushing dv specifically in the same manner that you pushed frogster yesterday so surely you should be able to just give a birds eye view and give us the quotes to back that up tomorrow.

So can we get that now?

some of the main reasons are: i don't think your approach to obscure is partnered. i think in general if you entered and found yourself under a lot of suspicion then "bus harder" when p much everyone else on the team on playstyle is less likely to endgame than you, is like very rarely going to be a winning play. and you're probably not going to like me saying this but tbh it just seems like you've barely been paying attention to the game for like weeks and i just kinda doubt thats how you play this as scum. i think you would be motivated to win and stay engaged and not just let yourself get poe'd

GL im less sure on now that i think about it so maybe i should be considering there more than i am. the main reasons i remember were that he has felt uninformed at crucial points in the game, and not in a way that feels faked, but ill have to look again to see specifics on that (i felt the opposite when i thought hem was town, but obv that's changed)

[fireisredsir]

why they acted how they did

i mean if anyone has any questions about why I've acted in a certain way at any point in the game feel free to ask and ill answer

i can answer those questions just as easily as scum but if you want to then go for it

[fireisredsir]

you have like multiple times clearly just not read posts that I've made or seemingly missed conversations

you literally just did when you asked why i hadn't talked about reassessing my townreads on people

[fireisredsir]

idk i should go to bed

sorry for bringing it up i didn't want to go into that bc i knew it would not be received well but it is part of my read so whatever

[fireisredsir]

I am *dreading* this game going another phase. I am dreading winding up in a LyLo and having to defend myself as a deepwolf. I'm dreading the pressure of having to either figure out who the scum is and/or defend myself sufficiently. I am scared about this game.

And that's why I really can't relate to fire here and why I think he's scum. I don't sense any sort of like... urgency to solve the game. Like yeah, he pushed on DV when prompted but it's like, if I was in his position my first instinct would be like WAIT DON'T KILL ME I'M AT LEAST GONNA SOLVE THE GAME BEFORE I DIE

and he's like "I can try to solve the game I guess if you guys want but probably don't trust me"

I don't know maybe I'm too prideful or something and that's why I can't relate. But long story short I really want the game to end this phase and I currently feel very confident on fire. I don't know if that's actually helpful for anyone's paranoia of me but w/e

i think part of it is bc you're in a v different position than me here. im very much dreading going to another phase as well but in a slightly different way

like the possible options fmpov are:

1) we lim scum correctly today. awesome. we did it. go team

2) we lim me today. okay. kinda unfortunate but hopefully the game is easier to solve now for the people who are left. now they can look at what ive said without any concern that it's scumposting and see if they agree with my conclusions or maybe they come up with a new one that's better

3) we lim town today. awful, i was wrong again, and now i have to go through of another day of people deciding whether they want to kill me or not and having their perspectives warped by me being in the game. and i probably end up dying anyway so like what did we gain here, and by the time im gone we're in 3p elo and it's too late for town to like work together and solve stuff

[fireisredsir]

ok now datisi's cafe is over i just want to say like

fire being all "if i was scum i'd definitely win here" just feels like... performative and untrue?

like i haven't seen the scum pt in that game but it seems similar in that scum were backed into a corner, he was under suspicion, and he did not in fact win or come close to winning in that game

it's a very different gamestate and set of players

this one i would love being scum in and imo it plays to my strengths

the other one was the opposite. it was like an almost mechanically solved game with a confident town and nobody that i could really talk to that easily. this is a town who has like kinda run out of stamina in a huge game and it's pure dayplay and almost everyone here is someonene i can talk to. this is like the dream scenario

its not that important tho idr even why i thought that was relevant lol

[fireisredsir]

ik this is not a useful thing to say atp but im reading my iso to see if i can towncase myself and idk y'all are right this is kinda scummy

[fireisredsir]

oh also to be clear i def do not townread dann for efforting. in a vacuum the bit that GL said about "trying the hardest out of any of us" is like slightly +scum here imo

it's more about the way that he's approaching things. ig it's easier to fake once you're the last scum left, but i just believe that he genuinely feels the things behind what he's posting

and i think on my reread that feeling carried through for p much all game

[fireisredsir]

idk maybe some amount of paranoia is healthy

[fireisredsir]

dannflor
- hem has a lot of posts on day 1 that were shitpushing dannflor, to the point where they do not look s/s and where dann might just be clear off hem flip alone (1133, 1177, 1206, 1578, 1585, 1588, 1693, 2335, 2337, 2348 quickly turned into 2397) (s)
- prior to the vc in 4314, which had s/s gamma/hem wagons, he voted gamma. scum is less likely to vote the lesser scum wagon in this scenario (same as deasvail) (s)
- 987 and 1144 don't feel like s/s (d)
- 1438 feels opportunistic and not s/s (d)

nah some of these are good reasons, like the hem push

if dann is scum im v impressed by his composure to not follow ausuka onto me after she dropped her case, and heading onto MT instead

like that's still a good reason to townread bc that alone was basically what killed MT

he'd have to be thinking way way ahead, which is possible, but impressive

[fireisredsir]

snap voting me when i voted him way back felt really real as well

i think of everyone i would probably be most impressed by dann if he flipped scum

prob GL second he's played really well and i feel a little bad that im considering him as a possibility

[fireisredsir]

so far i think the only thing that really stands out to me is i think i would be way more self-conscious about the way i talk about hem and probably put some more hedge in there

but i don't think that's likely to be convincing to anyone lol

[fireisredsir]

if me and dv are both town then ari was n1'd with only 1 scum in her bottom 6 reads

dann and irrel/shea were the next two above that

obv its possible they did it for the wifom so like don't base any serious reads on this but still, something worth remembering since that was like a year ago and i had forgotten atp

[fireisredsir]

its also like the only potentially meaningful nk since the rest have been pr kills

[fireisredsir]

i think my biggest issue this game was having too many townreads. i wanted to townblock bc i was excited at the scamper/ydra/nero seeming like clearly town and then kinda hoping the game was easy

games where i have too many townreads and then live to the point where i have to start reassessing them are always miserable experiences for me

ill be more careful next time

[fireisredsir]

ive also decided i take back my townread on shea lol

i want the last 3 lims to be me, dv, shea. in a perfect world, just in case im wrong, id want GL as a backup option instead of me, but i really don't feel that one rn

[fireisredsir]

sheep datisi and scamper on shea

sheep me and frog on deas lol

and its a win maybe hopefully

[fireisredsir]

fire i'm sort of confused about your read on me? i did not get the vibe you were townreading me that much

ive had doubts but i decided they're not good doubts so yes i think you're town

[fireisredsir]

back to towncase i probably don't give up on the deas push in 5194? like the Scum Narrative here would be that i suddenly felt a burst of energy/motivation and wanted to try to save obscure so i started casing someone. which is p believable and matches my scumplay

but i think I'd actually like follow through with it? i don't think backing off gains me anything there bc then i just like made myself look worse by starting the push but didn't actually do enough to get any benefits from it

[fireisredsir]

i have no idea what you mean by that but ok

when we were talking about it earlier i kinda landed on thinking that i was getting hung up over something that probably is not actually meaningful

[fireisredsir]

i think that in the section from 6425 to 6458 if im scum who comes up with a fun paranoid scumteam theory and am playing coy with it, i actually at least out it eventually and explain why i thought that for the townpoints rather than end up getting too embarrassed to admit that i was tinfoiling about scamper lol

[fireisredsir]

kinda feeling exactly one town in mena/deas/GL tbh

good thought

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: DV

[fireisredsir]

tbh i think i wanted you to be town bc it would make me feel better about some things but i thought about it more and realized i actually had it backwards and i would feel better if you're scum

i still think it's more likely to be deas tho

[fireisredsir]

anyway i don't think my read on you should be given any weight in either direction

datisi's and scamper's should

[fireisredsir]

what do you think i should be doing as town instead

[fireisredsir]

caring is not directly proportionate with conviction

i believe that the poe that i set out is winning. i also understand that ive been wrong on most of my attempts to find scum this game

i don't think it hurts town wincon that much for me to die so i don't feel strongly that i need to live here

you're right actually that i don't care at all about me personally individually finding the last scum, because i trust that ive given what i can and the rest of town can solve the game. if that makes you lose respect for me then i didn't want your respect anyway. i think that caring about that above all else is an absolutely awful way to play the game.

[fireisredsir]

Auskua! Ausuka! Ausuka!

[fireisredsir]

dying at datisi crumbing masom

not just once but TWICE