Mini Normal 2285: GM [game over]

[KittyTacky]

Don't really think scum throws their entire team on gera is the point I'n making

Gera practically made a jester play. I don't think scum being all on him is as implausible as scum being all on town usually is.

[unwnd]

I find it unlikely but it's not what I'm leading with regardless

[KittyTacky]

Legit losing braincells thinking about the evaluation that would lead to a VT essentially taking the bullet for a wagon they have no way of knowing is scum or town, when he KNEW he was fucking TOWN.

[innocentvillager]

Is it really more unlikely than 12.5% that all 3 scum decided they would lose no towncred from being on gera’s wagon? Hard to say imo

[innocentvillager]

Kitty that was literally like the first time I can think of where I policy voted my top townread

[Ydrasse]

i don’t feel like gera went over easily which is weird i think because he was like
his play was like carrot to stick for wolf
need read reasons why people vote him later

[innocentvillager]

carrot to stick for wolf what dat

[unwnd]

During the big sleep I had thoughts ranging from

1) Pooky is still probably town? I still feel good about Pooks even if he was sort of wedging gera at the end there. I felt like I believed his reason to abandon Dann/Scol and his frustration towards Scol (if not iterated already by me) didn't seem like a partner deal. Pooks probably overstepped a little and wanted to quantify a significant reason for what he saw in gera as potential scum. I dunno. I could just be giving pooks way more credit

1a) I was (am) still in contention with Pooky's read on Herta and I think his incessant wagonhopping without prior sleuthing is more damning than any potential meta he has on him. I've made the mistake of going 'but meta' and then you find out people aren't so inflexible that they won't slightly adjust their meta if it favors the situation. It's not just limited to certain players, but everyone. In summary, scum will play to survival instincts and I think Herta is

still

just trying to get through phases. His contribution is lacking and his weird phrasing and timings bother me more than think he's just some independent townie out in space.

2) IV at the end wasn't really splitting hairs but 'only doing this for policy reasons' felt a bit stilted. Felt more like something he feel like he could justify which makes me question my read on him a bit

3) I think about my own 'Scol's silence is telling' thought and that seems potent. KT going back to Scol though? Do I really want to deal with an obstinate player twice over. Gera died being stubborn and Scol is going to be even more stubborn. This is not me saying I changed my mind on Scol but I just feel like maybe it's a bit of a waste.

4) I am worried Ydra is not town with me this game D:

[unwnd]

I guess me saying 'I want to resolve Herta' and KT just hopping back on Scol makes me a hypocrite

I did mention Herta/Scol/Gera very likely having scum and I absolutely stand by that

[unwnd]

VOTE: Herta

[innocentvillager]

hmm I like your thoughts

[innocentvillager]

I feel like there could’ve been more urgency for people to do shit at EOD in general which there was a notable lack of. Im not sure what that means for my reads necessarily

[KittyTacky]

I just want Scol out. I never "went back", my ultimatum only had the purpose of squeezing out a claim from Gera, which failed. Don't let Scol slip into the shadows with his silence.

[unwnd]

I'm a tad more paranoid about you IV but I feel like it's something I don't wanna get into until I have to

[unwnd]

Any idea who you think Scol's mates could be KT? Doesn't need to be exactly associative, I just want to know what your other scumreads are

[KittyTacky]

carrot to stick for wolf what dat

Lim bait.

[KittyTacky]

Any idea who you think Scol's mates could be KT? Doesn't need to be exactly associative, I just want to know what your other scumreads are

I may be tunneled but I'm in that situation where I don't get super bad vibes from anyone else. It... might be skitter maybe? The defense was a bit clumsy on a re-skim of the relevant posts. But the question is if scum would hard defend a partner so early.

I will post a reads list tomorrow but rn I'm phone posting from bed. Good nyaight.

[Ydrasse]

i prove i town soon so paranoid for nothing this time i prom

[Val89]

Toto is alive and geraint obviously flipped tonw

I'm another one questioning my read on IV. I'm still fine with that flip, and I have no problem with IV deciding to policy that, but the continued characterisation of that being an "obviously town" flip has me wondering. It was not obvious to me, at all, and that means either IV has a much, much better grasp of mafia that I do, or it's much more obvious when you have a pre-knowledge of gera's alignment, and that's bleeding in to these sort of posts.

It's not something that tanks the whole read for me, since Dunning–Kruger is a thing and it might be the case IV is just better at mafia...but I don't think I'm that bad at mafia, either.

[innocentvillager]

Experience told me geraint was town as I kept interacting with him

Doesn’t mean I am a better player than you idk why you are making it about that

[innocentvillager]

What is the scum motivation for me to cal geraintm obviously town then policy him

It might be NAI but I don’t see how you can think it’s scum indicative since there’s no motivation for me to do that

[Val89]

It... might be skitter maybe? The defense was a bit clumsy on a re-skim of the relevant posts. But the question is if scum would hard defend a partner so early.

I thought about this since I was getting scumpings from both, but, as I said yesterday, I'm not convinced they make sense partnered. As well as the hard defence, there was also this:

VOTE: val89

19 looks like a scum post to me.

VOTE: val

If they are both scum, I've just voted skitters partner, and I have to believe that skitter jumps straight on my wagon right after there scumbuddy, on page 1. I know it doesn't become a wagon in the end, but I don't suppose either of skitter nor Sco would have known that at the time - and I suppose a hard defence of Sco might make more sense after doing that in a sort of 'in for a penny, in for a pound' sort of way - but I know when I've rolled scum, I've been much more reluctant to do any thing that might possibly tie me to a scum buddy early on when you know town are going to picking over every little interaction on the first page or two looking for a foothold.

I don't think they make sense as a solve together.

[Val89]

What is the scum motivation for me to cal geraintm obviously town then policy him

It might be NAI but I don’t see how you can think it’s scum indicative since there’s no motivation for me to do that

The scum motivation would be to appear town. When I roll scum, I know my gameplay is almost always to mimic my town game as closely as possible. Sometimes advancing the scum wincon means deviating from that, but that's always the starting point.

I don't doubt at all the genuineness of your conviction that Gera was town, and if you are scum, that town you would have also have known that - but I am theorising scum!you has overestimated how obvious it was to the other slots you are trying to sell the idea of town!IV to because the well was poisoned by your pre-knowledge of geras alignment.

[Val89]

In summary, scum will play to survival instincts and I think Herta is still just trying to get through phases. His contribution is lacking and his weird phrasing and timings bother me more than think he's just some independent townie out in space.

3) I think about my own 'Scol's silence is telling' thought and that seems potent. KT going back to Scol though? Do I really want to deal with an obstinate player twice over. Gera died being stubborn and Scol is going to be even more stubborn. This is not me saying I changed my mind on Scol but I just feel like maybe it's a bit of a waste.

These are both good points; good enough I can sheep you on Herta even if I'm sure how to read you myself. Like KT, I think Sco is probably most likely to flip scum, but I see your point particularly while I have pings of doubt particularly around if he was TMId by skitter early yesterday before the gera wagon diverted attention. Lets see how Sco acts today, and in the meantime, where this goes.

VOTE: Herta

[innocentvillager]

“but I am theorising scum!you has overestimated how obvious it was to the other slots you are trying to sell the idea of town!IV to“

This doesn’t make any sense to me