OPEN 868 - Nobility and the Dark Angel | Endgame

[Eiralox]

my reads aren't stone-set.

[MathBlade]

I think the part where I am struggling is I can see scum angles from almost every player alive. I hunt by motivation and the why people are saying what they are and if things logically match the emotions.

And right now without a scum flip I know the following
-> Town flips DA scum lose. So it should seem almost a third buddy for noble votes. But that’s contrasted by scum just not getting the dayvig. So then scum probably might argue for who they think is not DA today. I think that’s the major takeaway. So I think players who are more open like PBR are less likely to be scum.

-> Scum know the players who are likely going to die (namely Meg and Herta). If one is scum the other DA then scum know they’d be wanting to jockey for position making the players we aren’t sorting white noise. So whoever is scum would be aiming to make their player look as good as possible. So I think it would be best to review before today for most associations. We still end up with 2 deaths but then it’s 1 v 5 and that remaining scum has to survive two miselims.

-> In a town one DA other world then we end up in a win or elo scenario for scum if my math is right. Then if we noble DA we win, if we noble the Townie and elim the DA then night kill. Two deaths so 7 alive brings us to a 5 standoff.

So the main part of why I am confused is I don’t know which end game scum are preparing for. So then I don’t know if scum are aiming to be townread or aiming to paint someone as scum.

Can someone provide me some thoughts?

[MathBlade]

(And yes I know technically there’s others that can be DA like PBE but I find that super rare so I am discounting that)

[Herta]

Day 1

Elimination: Porkens (vt)
Elected Noble: Not_Mafia
Hidden Noble: none

Day 2

Elimination: Freedom (vt)
Elected Noble: Elmo
Hidden Noble: Enchant (confirmed)

Day 3

Elimination: Elmo (vt)
Elected Noble: Mathblade (Tapiocaphobe)
Hidden Noble: Eiralox (unconfirmed)

Day 4

Hidden Noble: PBE (unconfirmed)

Players remaining: Mathblade, Herta, Eiralox, PBE, Not_Mafia, Enchant, MegAzumarill

Enchant cannot be DA because of Day 2 confirmation. Not_Mafia, Elmo, Mathblade cannot be DA because they were elected nobles.

Not_Mafia claimed Hidden Noble on Days 3 & 4. No one else counter-claimed HN on those days. Not_Mafia has history of trolling, assumption is he's trolling here, but if he's town it sure would help if he'd come clean.

DA pool is Herta, Eiralox, PBE, MegAzurmarill. If you knock out the claimed Hidden Nobles (again N_M could help here), we're left with Herta and Meg as possible DAs.

so assuming Eiralox & PBE were/are truly Hidden Nobles, DA must be Herta or Meg.

Would mafia lie about being a Hidden Noble? Sure, but there's no authentic counterclaim to the unconfirmed claimed HNs (Eiralox & PBE), so, without N_M's help we have to go with a DA pool of Herta and Meg.

The longer N_M is quiet, the more we have to assume he's just scum. Because it's close to game throwing if he's town at this point.

I think this holds.

[Polar Bear Express]

I don’t like your post. It’s obvious I’m telling the truth about HN here and I find posts suggesting otherwise pretty damned scummy.

No CC and Enchant is now my top townread. Anyone currently doubting I’m HN here is outright scumclaiming imo.

I also wouldn’t be pushing so hard to be on hammered wagon if I was lying here, Duh!

HEAL: Herta

~N

[Marashu]

I'm kind of disappointed I don't really have much to do here.
Killing/Nobling between me and herta means finding mafia is kinda pointless for me today
Am wondering something

@MOD
Is the scum nightkill mandatory?

Gotta do stuff, I'll check back later

Because a win condition is reliant on being killed, all eliminations and night kills are mandatory.

Does this remain true after the player with that elimination is dead?

Yes

[Marashu]

Official Vote Count 4.02

Elimination

MegAzumarill

(2): Enchant, Herta

Not Voting

(6):

MathBlade

, Eiralox, Not_Mafia, MegAzumarill, Polar Bear Express

BOLD

denotes double vote

Nobility

MegAzumarill

(1): Herta

Herta

(3): Enchant, Eiralox, Polar Bear Express

Not Voting

(3): MathBlade, , Not_Mafia, MegAzumarill

Deadline:

(expired on 2022-12-26 17:52:30).

Mod notes:

• The hidden noble's extra vote does not appear in the Vote Count.
  
• The elected noble counts as 2 players for the purpose of elimination requirements.
  
• With effectively 8 players alive, 5 votes are required for elimination.

[MathBlade]

I don’t like your post. It’s obvious I’m telling the truth about HN here and I find posts suggesting otherwise pretty damned scummy.

No CC and Enchant is now my top townread. Anyone currently doubting I’m HN here is outright scumclaiming imo.

I also wouldn’t be pushing so hard to be on hammered wagon if I was lying here, Duh!

HEAL: Herta

~N

Who is this at Nancy? I literally said I am not considering a you HN world.

[Polar Bear Express]

Herta obviously. It’s also strange to me that he’s so neutral about who’s DA. Like whomever’s NOT DA damn well knows they aren’t.

I also think I’m really obvious town here now and if we’re wrong, probably the most logical Nk so anyone still sr me here is also megasuss.

~N

[MathBlade]

You ready to do this? I will go with what you want in the am. I just have this feeling that it should be Meg we noble.

I don’t have a good explanation for it or reason other than my gut says so.

But in the am I will follow you if that’s what you want.

[Eiralox]

my instincts rn are were they were back in big post: pbe, matth, enchant seem town.

which means scum is nm/herta or nm/meg

don't fully believe this yet but by feels alone yeah?

----------

the counters to this would be some bigbrain plays, but i don't see any unless the DA is playing along with scum(DA enchant/pbe) ........ which makes no sense as it's against wincon at this point, DA wants to die or survive.

----------------

ugh.... which is still strange re: toto kill, meg/herta scum, but whatever.
------------------------------

I'm very happy to stretch this as long as possible but if ya'll wanna continue and end it, sure. turgidity aint universally embraced

[Eiralox]

and if herta is DA and meg town, mathblade/not_mafia?

enchant's sorting sorta makes that the only possible for me if enchant/my thought on herta/meg has weight: i.e: why would scum! herta or meg kill toto?

so math seems town but meh i'd say N_M/Math liklier than other pairings. but that's tinfoil atm, of little use unless we don't enoble the Dark Angel.

[Herta]

I'm kind of disappointed I don't really have much to do here.
Killing/Nobling between me and herta means finding mafia is kinda pointless for me today
Am wondering something

@MOD
Is the scum nightkill mandatory?

Gotta do stuff, I'll check back later

Because a win condition is reliant on being killed, all eliminations and night kills are mandatory.

Does this remain true after the player with that elimination is dead?

Yes

This exchange reminded me that a wincon for the DA is getting killed prior to being nobled. So I think it's in the interest of the DA to act scummy in order to get eliminated. That may be something that town wants to look out for. I'm still good with my position. I know that Meg is DA, and I want Meg nobled. And if that means I am the elimination so be it because we just win outright. But I'm also good with sharing the win with the DA if you want to noble me and eliminate Meg. That leads us to elo, and I think an elo here is more winnable than not.

[Herta]

I can't follow anything from Eiralox.

[Polar Bear Express]

You ready to do this? I will go with what you want in the am. I just have this feeling that it should be Meg we noble.

I don’t have a good explanation for it or reason other than my gut says so.

But in the am I will follow you if that’s what you want.

I’m still undecided. I figure actual DA will trip up eventually. So long as we noble one and elim the other, scum doesn’t get a free daykill, it’s probably fine but if we can get it right, obviously preferable.

[Polar Bear Express]

I'm kind of disappointed I don't really have much to do here.
Killing/Nobling between me and herta means finding mafia is kinda pointless for me today
Am wondering something

@MOD
Is the scum nightkill mandatory?

Gotta do stuff, I'll check back later

Because a win condition is reliant on being killed, all eliminations and night kills are mandatory.

Does this remain true after the player with that elimination is dead?

Yes

This exchange reminded me that a wincon for the DA is getting killed prior to being nobled. So I think it's in the interest of the DA to act scummy in order to get eliminated. That may be something that town wants to look out for. I'm still good with my position. I know that Meg is DA, and I want Meg nobled. And if that means I am the elimination so be it because we just win outright. But I'm also good with sharing the win with the DA if you want to noble me and eliminate Meg. That leads us to elo, and I think an elo here is more winnable than not.

Talk about scummy posting. Town!you shouldn’t be okay with winning with DA!Mega. It’s not like DA is a survivor, who’s wincon has 0 bearing on town’s. As town, you don’t want to take a gamble on winning when you’d have a guaranteed win today. Idk if you even realize how scummy this post is. I’m wondering if you could be mafia and Mega DA? Or you DA and Mega town?

At any rate this is an extremely odd response if you’re actually town here.

[MathBlade]

I kinda feel Herta and Meg are trying too hard to seem DA like and only one can be.

I think Herta is doing it worse so noble Meg?

[MathBlade]

Yes I own stock in Waffle House

[MegAzumarill]

I kinda feel Herta and Meg are trying too hard to seem DA like and only one can be.

I think Herta is doing it worse so noble Meg?

I mean where am I trying to look like DA?
And even if this was true this argument fails occams razor

[MathBlade]

Fair enough, as long as we make sure Herta is out of the game one way or another we can discuss this tomorrow

???

What? Did you just DA slip here?

You do realize that if Herta’s DA, there is no tomorrow. Town wins if DA’s nobled.

~N

Yeah, but I was referring to you and math wanting to noble me and elim Herta, which does lead to a tomorrow

If you’re town here and not DA, you should want to be limmed and Herta healed. As town you want the DA healed, so game ends in a town win.

Because fypov if you’re not DA, Herta has to be and you don’t just say you want him out of the game. If you’re town you 100% want Herta healed and you limmed.

There’s nothing to sort out in that case.

~N

Yes, in the case where you heal herta and elim me I don't need to sort, but you and Math control the elim and support not doing that so most likely I will need to solve this game tomorrow unless you flip-flop again

Here’s an example.

If you were town being elimmed you’d need to sort for last reads.
If you were scum being elimmed you’d want to pretend to be town.

This leaves DA

[MegAzumarill]

If I'm town being eliminated in this context I win since DA is nobled

[MegAzumarill]

If I am scum being elimmed I immediately lose since DA is nobled

[MegAzumarill]

Neither of those statements makes sense

[MathBlade]

If I'm town being eliminated in this context I win since DA is nobled

I don’t like how you’re locking this in though
It’s most likely but I think town you would be paranoid of the edge cases and still hunt.

[MegAzumarill]

If I'm town being eliminated in this context I win since DA is nobled

I don’t like how you’re locking this in though
It’s most likely but I think town you would be paranoid of the edge cases and still hunt.

The only edge case I can think of making sense involves me not being town (that being Me/Herta as the scumteam and PBE as DA) I know this isn't true
And it's not like this statement is super reflective of my play in general, it's justifying the reason I have to give reads since my previous post about how I did actually want to sort was misinterpreted. The fact I shouldn't be sorting was not given by me, but PBE