New Year Dance Party [afterparty]

[Enchant]

Nah we talked for a bit and then meh

[Shirou]

MariaR replaces Thestatusquo.

Woah this is going to be....interesting.

Now/Ari and Mid/Enchant are good slots to dip out

Ok so we are here, it's been nine minutes since MariaR has replaced in and she already seems to have opinions on the game. "Ok she probably was reading the game before replacing in right? Okie."

However just a bit before and a bit after the posts above there's this:

To make room for the arms.

So, what's the hot gossip. Did I replace into a scum slot? A town slot?
Who is being pushed? Let me know!

There's still voting in this setup, correct? I can vote who I want gone?

There has already been voting before especially when the Ari/Norwe wagon picked up in the last pages so she can't have read that right? But she agrees with the consensus of the last pages on Ari/Norwe being scummy...?

"She may have read early pages and arrived at Ari/Norwe anyway" sure...and she also coincidentally picks Enchant/Midway which is another pair who got popular after the flip?

MariaR can't have read too much in 9 minutes but sounds like she has knowledge about the game state, which would be weird but still able to say the bad excuse of "Oh yeah I totally read a lot in 8 or 9 minutes to have solid reads", but the problem is that she's also demonstrating to not have read the game by asking what is happening or "Can we vote guys O.o?"

MariaR is clearly either being ingenuine about how much she knows about the game, making up stuff on the spot considering last 3 pages or so consensus (or scum PT advice??) or

both

. It gets weirder though.

VOTE: Irrel/Save

Fixed

To be clear: I think Irrel/Save most likely hit scum
I think Ari/Now are best for information so I'll vote in them for now.

Ok so a couple posts later she has already changed her mind on who are the best votes, which would somewhat make sense if she truly hadn't knowledge of the game beforehand but we already know that's a lie, and no dont say "She just skimmed", she would at least have seen people voting for the same consensus scum reads she replaced in pushing. Maria wasn't clueless about the game state here before replacing in, nothing in her ISO makes sense otherwise and it's also a FACT she tried to hide that.

Either way if you haven't noticed something interesting yet, I hope you do with this:

Hey no, that's my job. Go be afk in your PT or something so I can die at intermission. Do you see how obv town our slots are?
pedit: Oooo VOTE: Fireisred

Is there 2? Maybe, but at least 1

how do u just come up with these numbers

do you disagree?

i dont see how u think there actually could be any scum pair. That is a rare event and with how players are this game there isn't a dunny/mariar soul pair in here that i think would do it. So i think u saying its a potential 2 is crazy without any basis. So thats why i ask how u even think that is possible

No no, I mean there is scum

in

Now/Ari and fireisreader pair. Not that it's a SVS pair.

She said she would vote Ari/Norwe and nothing, but not only that, that pair has been in all of her different "budget readlists", has a wagon on them even bigger than the other consensus she follows, it's her most consistent read and therefore objectively should be her strongest.

And she doesn't seem to vote there yet. Yes, she would eventually vote it if it came too close to going through, or even now since I am exposing her, but she seems to be trying her best to be elsewhere, JUST LIKE HOW TSQ hoped on Ari wagon before quickly going back to VPB and saying he would "sit there", despite TSQ also often expressing being down to eliminate Ari (but not following though).

I will tell you why of all those "coincidences" even with two different players on that slot:

It's because I believe they are scum, and Ari their partner. They are both scummy individually and associatively, I hope I won't need to case Ari too much since you guys think Norwe should die anyway, but I will do so if I have the energy or necessity for it.

TSQ entire push on VPB was also likely partially a distraction wagon to stop the momentum of people mentioning Ari as one of their vote targets. The other part was probably for VPB answering me that TSQ was the most likely deep wolf if there was one, what I do consider the right answer.

[Shirou]

Is there 2? Maybe, but at least 1

how do u just come up with these numbers

do you disagree?

i dont see how u think there actually could be any scum pair. That is a rare event and with how players are this game there isn't a dunny/mariar soul pair in here that i think would do it. So i think u saying its a potential 2 is crazy without any basis. So thats why i ask how u even think that is possible

No no, I mean there is scum

in

Now/Ari and fireisreader pair. Not that it's a SVS pair.

Also this the kind of cute shot I post as scum by inserting a partner and a limbait. Why?

It gives you credit for being "right" but at the same if you eliminate your partner first, you can get the limbait by saying "well we were right before so let's keep going boys", and if the limbait goes first you can perhaps pivot and say "well we were wrong before so maybe the other person/pair isn't scum either?".

She's making a false equivalence, about ye two COMPETING wagons nonetheless.

[Shirou]

MariaR entire ISO is a mess and minus the VPB push she has eerily similar stances on the game as TSQ, especially on Ari pair. I don't believe it's a coincidence.

It's hard for me to not just boldly declare she's scum, and beyond that, Ari's partner.

[Aristeia]

riveting

[Save The Dragons]

I actually kinda like it as a theory

[Shirou]

MariaR has lied about how much she knows about this game maker how she will try to spin it. She may even go for the "oh yeah I lied/faked some of my posts but I'm still town tehe U.u"

The way this all developed I would say it's close enough to a soft scumclaim, and if you try to dismiss it just like with Cakez by saying "it's just psychoanalizying" or something, don't be surprised if we lose.

Just punish what is statically much more likely to come from scum than town (lying/hiding). It can be that simple sometimes.

[Aristeia]

ok so what r u going to do when you flip me and I'm town

[fireisredsir]

this might be dumb but i kinda think ari is town now

the reason is her mindset around her invitations to me, which she has said there were 3 of

she started off with this:

I want to be pocketed like Andante tbh

which i understood to be a reference to me in invictus, but also it only actually applies if im scum here. the "i want to be pocketed" imo outweighs the "like andante" like, gramatically, so the request feels like it's more to scum than it is to me. which means that i, as town, don't really see it as a serious invitation to me, just kinda a cute jokey entrance post. (and before anyone says that my 1613 says otherwise, yes, you're right, i hadn't really thought about it at that point and i don't think my response of "yes" there was very accurate. i was aware it was a reference to me but i did not see it as direct of an invitation as ari seems to have thought it was)

but dancing with ari sounds fun regardless so i still respond to her other posts even if i don't exactly have a response for that one

her second one and my response are here:

imo pick someone who will heartlessly pocket you and then let them bc that results in a more tragic and dramatic endgame

If you pocket me and the PT is shorter than 100 pages I would be upset

i don't have the energy for that anymore. im old and settled down now

again, it's a statement that only applies if im scum. so i don't really see it as an invitation, bc im not. me saying "i don't have the energy to pocket over 100 pages anymore" similarly is not a rejection bc im not scum, so the statement doesn't apply to this game, it's just playing along with what i see as a somewhat jokey post

her first and only direct invitation is here:

I would like to dance with either Dragons or one of the Fires

which is the first one that is independent of alignment. i respond positively, to another post of hers saying that writing stories sounds fun, and at this point im considering if i should just ask or if it's still too early in the game and i should wait for everyone to at least check in (me looking back at the ladies list and seeing baltar hadn't shown up yet and posting 192 was a direct result of this thought process, which happened right after ari made her invitation). then drapion asks and she instant accepts

ok so why does any of this matter

i think her mindset of seeing my lack of response to the first post + my response to the second post as rejection only really makes sense if she doesn't know my alignment. i just don't really think it would occur to her to feel rejected by me apparently not being willing to pocket her if she knew that the invitations didn't actually really apply to me. i think she def could have that same approach as scum, but the mindset of the reaction and the consistency of that with what she posted at the time + her accept on drapion + what she's saying now all feel like she is unaware of the fact that i am town and wouldn't see those as invitations

[Shirou]

MariaR has lied about how much she knows about this game maker how she will try to spin it. She may even go for the "oh yeah I lied/faked some of my posts but I'm still town tehe U.u"

The way this all developed I would say it's close enough to a soft scumclaim, and if you try to dismiss it just like with Cakez by saying "it's just psychoanalizying" or something, don't be surprised if we lose.

Just punish what is statically much more likely to come from scum than town (lying/hiding). It can be that simple sometimes.

Fucking auto correct. I meant "no matter how she will try to spin it" in "maker".

[Save The Dragons]

I think you just can't tell when a girl is into you

[Shirou]

ok so what r u going to do when you flip me and I'm town

I doubt that will happen but even if it did, my solve is likely all three scum in Ari/MariaR/Fire/StD.

At least, 2 out of the three scum there. I expanded on you and MariaR because I think it's the two most likely both individually and associatively, especially with the latest Maria posts

[fireisredsir]

I think you just can't tell when a girl is into you

also true im oblivious

[Save The Dragons]

Wow I hate your theory now its garbage

[Aristeia]

I'm feeling conflicted whether you're doing a reflective stepback because you actually think I'm town and you're re-evaluating or if you've decided you can let Shirou push this home and look better after I flip because the timing is pretty convenient.

[Aristeia]

I guess we really shouldn't have danced together

[Shirou]

My PoE is [Ari, MariaR, Fire, StD].

Note that Irrel can be the scum in StD/Irrel pair but they die together so it doesn't matter.

My most likely guess right now is MariaR/Ari/Fire, I will try to expand on it in the following days, but it could other combinations of he four like:

MariaR/Ari/StD or Irrel

Maybe there's also one scum out of my PoE but it would be a bit of a blind guess to me right now.

If I am wrong and there isn't even 2/3 scum in my PoE...well, fuck me I guess. Sorry?

[fireisredsir]

i started writing the post before shirou posted

[VP Baltar]

our pt is p barren

This seems weird if fire is skeptical or had some level of doubt on ydra.

[fireisredsir]

when i encouraged ceph to use the pt more in spring fling it didn't help me sort him it just got me more pocketed

[Save The Dragons]

I don't see how mariaR votes me entering the game if we're scum together

[NorwegianboyEE]

MariaR has lied about how much she knows about this game maker how she will try to spin it. She may even go for the "oh yeah I lied/faked some of my posts but I'm still town tehe U.u"

The way this all developed I would say it's close enough to a soft scumclaim, and if you try to dismiss it just like with Cakez by saying "it's just psychoanalizying" or something, don't be surprised if we lose.

Just punish what is statically much more likely to come from scum than town (lying/hiding). It can be that simple sometimes.

So i read your stuff and i understand what you’re saying about Maria and discrepancies, but why would it mean partnered with Aristeia?

[Shirou]

I hate the autocorrect. Now I want to question: does the day stop if someone leaves the dance? I don't think so, therefore I would rather Furtive or Norwe leave the dance at some point today if possible?

Dunno who to vote between MariaR and Ari though if I am forced to vote rather than their partners leave..who is individually scummier huh, probably MariaR but my heart kinda screams Ari is even worse for always having people try to deflect but lightly buss it.

[Aristeia]

did you just call me an it

[Enchant]

Day stops if one of these things happen:
1. Two pairs leave dance.
2. Deadline is out.
3. Everyone will vote "We want day to end".

Second day will continue before someone win or deadline is out. If deadline is out, then mafia win.