Micro 1067: Is There a Doctor in the House? - Game over!

[Gimli]

what do you think of galron, grandpa?

[GrandpaMo]

Maths Behind 2 Groups!

Spoiler:

Group 1: A, b, c, d -> E
Group 2: E, f, g, h -> A
(all this is the same if you replace A with E)

Spoiler: NAR and CPR

To make this easier on myself I am going to assume the following about the CPR doctor and night action resolutions:
Night actions resolve as instances:
Doctor and Weak Doctor add an instance of heal (+1) to a target.
Quack doctor and mafia kill add an instance of kill (-1) to a target.
CPR adds heal (+1) or kill (-1) depending.
(The only other night action is the Paranoid doctor which will always protect their target so we don't need to worry about that)

After all actions have resolved the instances on each player are summed to a give the player's [Status].
If a player's [Status]:
> 0 -> Player lives
= 0 -> Player lives
< 0 -> Player dies

When the CPR doctor resolves, it looks at the [Status] of its target before it acts.
If a player's [Status]:
> 0 -> CPR adds a kill (-1) and the player doesn't die
= 0 -> CPR adds a kill (-1) and the player dies
< 0 -> CPR adds a heal (+1) potentially saving the player

This is how CPR interaction and action resolution makes sense to me. If that's not how it works then welp I'm probably about to waste a lot of time lol!

Mafia kill does not target A

In order for A to die, one of group 1 must be the JK.
Therefore 3 roles will be told to target A.
35 combinations to target A.

Spoiler: Maths

7 roles left that can target A
7x6x5 = 210
Taking into account permutations
210/3! = 35

The second condition required for A to die is for the Quack or CPR to kill them.

Case without CPR

Without CPR the only way for A to die is by Quack killing them.
This happens is Quack is in Group 2 and is not Jail-kept.
There is a 3/10 chance for the Quack to kill this way.

Spoiler: Maths

Assuming no CPR and Quack is in the group
1x5x4 = 20
Accounting for permutations
20/2! = 10

	0	0	0	1	1
0	x	0	0	1	1
0	0	x	0	1	1
0	0	0	x	1	1
1	1	1	1	x	2
1	1	1	1	2	x

3/10 result in a kill

Case without Quack

Without the Quack, the CPR will act like a Quack so the above maths can be used.
3/10 chance of death.

Case with CPR and Quack

If the Quack were to kill the CPR will save the target so only the CPR can kill.
There is a 2/5 chance of death.

Spoiler: Maths

With CPR and Quack
1x1x5 =5
No permutations
Of these 5, 2 include a heal and 3 do not.
When there is a heal it will cancel out the Quack kill so the CPR will kill.
When there is no heal the CPR will see the target killed and so heal them.
Therefore 2/5 chance of death.

Overall

8/35 chance of killing the target.

Mafia kill does target A

We have 35 combinations of roles as before.
For A to die there must be more kills than heals on them.

Case with Quack but without CPR

There will be 2 kill instances on A.
A will only live if there are 2 heal instances.
There is only 1/10 chance of there being 2 heal instances.
There is a 9/10 chance of death.
(See Mafia kill doesn't target A subsection Case without CPR for maths)

Case with CPR but without Quack

Due to the additional kill on A, CPR doesn't act quite the same as before.
6/10 chance of death

Spoiler: Maths

Taking into account the kill instance from the mafia kill

-1	0	0	0	1	1
0	x	-1	-1	0	0
0	-1	x	-1	0	0
0	-1	-1	x	0	0
1	0	0	0	x	1
1	0	0	0	1	x

Green signifies when CPR acts to heal
Red signifies when CPR acts to kill
3/10 CPR saves A
6/10 CPR kills A
1/10 CPR kills A but they are saved

Case with Quack and CPR

In this scenario there are always 2 kill instances on A so the CPR will always act to heal.
3/5 chance of death.

Spoiler: Maths

If the third slot is a null: Mafia + Quack - CPR = Kill (x3)
If the third slot is a heal: Mafia + Quack - Heal - CPR = Live (x2)

Case without Quack or CPR

There is 1 kill instance in this scenario.
6/10 chance of death

Spoiler: Maths

For no heals we need all 3 nulls
3x2x1 = 6
The other combinations all have at least 1 heal so will save A

Overall

24/35 chance of death

Conclusion

If we co-ordinate our kills in the two group cross targeting system one of the targets will survive and the other probably will unless the mafia choose to kill them. The mafia don't know which group is targeted by the JK so choosing to kill one of the targets is risky for them. If both mafia are in the same group that might make them choose to kill their target as it's less likely for them to have the JK in their group but I personally wouldn't. The chance of both mafia being in the same group is 3/7 so it's not too unlikely.

Spoiler: Maths

Chance for mafia to both be in the same group is 1 - (chance only 1 mafia in a group)
2x6x5x4/3! = 40
Number of groups
8x7x6x5/4! = 70
1-4/7 = 3/7

Having done all this I think the two groups option works well to keep people alive but doesn't give us that much information on anyone's roles if that's what we're going for.

i think it does because it half confirms someone if they are town or mafia. while its not 100 percent definiete this leads into wifom territory where we can eventually gamesolve thru mafia's ridiclousness

[GrandpaMo]

what do you think of galron, grandpa?

are u reading my mind lmaooo

i was just gonna ask u that because i had them on my bottom three of my readlist

towards a null. i first thought they voted abnegation because of their slip i saw but they did it for rvs then abnegation was going back and forth with them?

they have not contributed at all nd like i told enchant (well implied it to them) if they aint scum, then galron is my next on my list.

after that interaction i had with enchant, it made me like them a lot more and so went above galron in my readlist poe

so now i just have galron and freedom as my bottom two.

[GrandpaMo]

This seems quite standard from my experience with enchant. If anything is more activity than I'd expect

ok can u tell me what u got out of the convo? i got nothing.

its just seems like im wasting my time trying to talk to them.

and when im trying to understand them they shut me up

I didn't get anything, it's just how I've come to expect enchant to play.
A budget Not_Mafia

LMAO that was the funniest thing that happened this whole day.

ok im gonna put my reads here btw since we aint doiing nun


elements -- high townread // casual town mindset
tabibtos -- low townread // strat leader
scolosis -- mid townread // being bold vs most of the lobby doing nothing
vanderscamp -- null / townleanish // they were able to bring in the idea of order of operations and contributed to theory
burgerparty -- null // no read
galron -- null / townlean // nothing major still need more reasoning + and answer questions against their push against someone who isn't in the game
enchant -- null / scumleanish // omgus, not having a casual flow of thoughts that contribute to their reasoning against some of their claims including a push on me
abnegation -- scumlean // not answering questions, going back in circles trying to avoid a push, and povslipped

there is def one in galron, enchant, abnegation -- i wouldn't be surprised if both of the mafia is here.


abnegation > enchant > galron > vanderscamp > tabibtos > scolosis > elements

i hope the new replacement is able to provide more info for burger party soon.

@gimli this is what im referring too btw

[Vanderscamp]

wallpost

oh god this is complicated and i need to go think about it.

if i like this plan, i will bet the game on town!tabibitos.

I get why you'd think that but I don't like that you're thinking that, it seems fake scum reasoning to townread people (when you didn't even read the plan yet)

I didn't read the plan either I'm lazy

I agree with the fake reasoning part


Like if it doesn't work, do they think that it's scumTab deliberately advocating a poor plan?

[GrandpaMo]

also gimli ur above tabibitos and scolosis now fwiw

[Tabibitos]

Elements mech solving is interesting, don't know what to think of that, did you ever do it before Elements? On what game?

im sorry but this feels like a useless question to ask because first, cant u just look up their meta

and 2nd u act like ur gonna follow up with elements because u have been gone for most the game and i missed u and like ugh idk what i do without u

First I don't have unlimited time so it would be nice if he can point me out to it if it exists, I know he may lie but 8f I catch him in a lie isn't that a good thing as well?

Second I am asking because this is

widly

different than what I remember Elements playing and am just curious if he did so much mech solving anywhere else at all.

- Aether

[GrandpaMo]

widly different

ok thats all i need to know

im starting to get pieces back and back into my head when i played with elements.

[Gimli]

what do you think of galron, grandpa?

are u reading my mind lmaooo

i was just gonna ask u that because i had them on my bottom three of my readlist

towards a null. i first thought they voted abnegation because of their slip i saw but they did it for rvs then abnegation was going back and forth with them?

they have not contributed at all nd like i told enchant (well implied it to them) if they aint scum, then galron is my next on my list.

after that interaction i had with enchant, it made me like them a lot more and so went above galron in my readlist poe

so now i just have galron and freedom as my bottom two.

yeah, one of galron's 8 posts is voting shirou (who slipped their main acc into the thread playing under a hydra), in a way that felt like just trying to post some content and look like scumhunting. then unvoting and not moving anywhere else shows lack of intent, which I don't like

[GrandpaMo]

mech-wise:
i’m all for planning out night actions. if we can find a way to get info out of the wonk, then we should take it.
i’ve been considering the idea of nurse claiming d1/maybe d2. they’re not any more powerful than the doctors, and it would be ridiculous for scum to cc it now. basically gives us an innocent child and helps us plan night actions if we want to do that.

looking back at abnegation's iso... i never saw this . i see why u are hesitatnt to claim scum on them for making a claim like this ^

[GrandpaMo]

Gmo I read that iso and didn't pick up a Scum slip although the isolated was underwhelming.

I get stronger scum vibes from shirou.

VOTE: shirou

Gmo I read that iso and didn't pick up a Scum slip although the isolated was underwhelming.

I get stronger scum vibes from shirou.

VOTE: shirou

who is shirou...?

He's part of the hydra with Norwee.

He's part of the hydra with Norwee.

yea but I don't understand why they are scurmrwaxing the individual and not the hydra lol

Gmo I read that iso and didn't pick up a Scum slip although the isolated was underwhelming.

I get stronger scum vibes from shirou.

VOTE: shirou

who is shirou...?

Their four post iso isn't great, and I didn't realize they were in the hydra but I think the hydra is probably town.

UNVOTE:

Gmo I read that iso and didn't pick up a Scum slip although the isolated was underwhelming.

I get stronger scum vibes from shirou.

VOTE: shirou

who is shirou...?

Their four post iso isn't great, and I didn't realize they were in the hydra but I think the hydra is probably town.

UNVOTE:

this looks bad for u lol

Gmo I read that iso and didn't pick up a Scum slip although the isolated was underwhelming.

I get stronger scum vibes from shirou.

VOTE: shirou

who is shirou...?

Their four post iso isn't great, and I didn't realize they were in the hydra but I think the hydra is probably town.

UNVOTE:

were u reading them as scum because they didnt contribute as much?

He's part of the hydra with Norwee.

yea but I don't understand why they are scurmrwaxing the individual and not the hydra lol

Maybe he didn't realise that Shirou was in the hydra?
You might be overanalysing a bit here.

this progression looks horrible btw fwiw. i said the same thing @gimli i called them out for it looking bad. and then freedom coming to their defense?

[Gimli]

yeah that freedom defense pinged me as well

[Gimli]

I mean of course he didn't realise shirou was in the hydra since he voted shirou.

[GrandpaMo]

I mean of course he didn't realise shirou was in the hydra since he voted shirou.

also im assuming ur an alt too

wassup with everybody and alts . i think its time for me to make me one

[GrandpaMo]

mech-wise:
i’m all for planning out night actions. if we can find a way to get info out of the wonk, then we should take it.
i’ve been considering the idea of nurse claiming d1/maybe d2. they’re not any more powerful than the doctors, and it would be ridiculous for scum to cc it now. basically gives us an innocent child and helps us plan night actions if we want to do that.

looking back at abnegation's iso... i never saw this . i see why u are hesitatnt to claim scum on them for making a claim like this ^

what do u think about this @gimli

[Vanderscamp]

Ahh i'm sorry but i'm really not good at mech-talk. I'm gonna ask Aether to explain to me this plan in a way i understand later so i can keep up LOL.

- Lumine

ask aether to post the dumbed down version in thread cause the first one was too complicated and wordy

i can do it for u if u want

tldr;

all it is.

is have nurse as IC

there will be two groups

1st group (4 people) -- this group will all target the nurse to protect them
2nd group (nurse will be in this group so 5 people) -- this group will investigate by targeting a person who they think is sus within group 2.

that will ultimately result in making someone either half confirmed as maf or town (look at my post to see further elabaration on that)

im assuming nurse doesnt target anyone btw. if nurse dies then they convert to the doc that died and the process repeats again for day 2 and so on till we have outted maf.

Nurse would target someone right?

Assuming the D1 kill is town

[Gimli]

@grandpa: I'm actually not an alt, I haven't played in two years and don't know anyone

wrt abnegation's post, I agree with the logic behind it and I've been advocating for outing the nurse as IC in d1 as well (my idea being turning the game into a 9er with an IC and not use any NAs). But, does that affect your read on freedom?

[Elements]

Did you ever do it before Elements? On what game?

Not as far as I remember.
As for my play style changing, I took a couple of years break and now I've come back my playstyle has just changed *shrug*
Also I'm a they/she now :3

[GrandpaMo]

@grandpa: I'm actually not an alt, I haven't played in two years and don't know anyone

this is a compliment because u play rlly good especially considering u haven tplayed in two years.

also welcome back -- this is also my return as well from like a year to 2

[Elements]

Grandpa, you are probably the least subtle person I have ever met

[GrandpaMo]

Grandpa, you are probably the least subtle person I have ever met

im sorry is that a good / bad thing?:(

i try not to be annoying lol

[Elements]

It's just a thing, not good or bad

[Elements]

VOTE: Freedom

[Elements]

is the mod lurking for a pagetop....

[Elements]

not if i get there first!