Newbie 2108 - Postgame

[Alianna]

3.02

Votecount 3.02

Elements (E-1): Aureal, IdleMuse
IdleMuse (E-2): Elements

Not Voting (2): Brickwalll, BlueBloodedToffee

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-01-23 13:12:10).

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VOTE: Idle

[Aureal]

Wasn't asking you, BBT, was asking Elements.

[IdleMuse]

Idle, If I get voted and flip town who is your next port of call?

Aureal. If Brickwall is scum he's playing a blinder. If BBT is scum I think the out-of-the-gate pressure on cactus D2 following on into hammering them was very unusual. I guess that could be an extreme bussing strat deliberately intended to townlock, but I think that pretty unlikely?

[IdleMuse]

Brick, are you still keen on pushing a Pav wagon today?

Maybe this was the attempt to divert

This also looks bad for Idle given the flip

I was probing to see if Brick understood the memo re. Pav being the other mason.

[Elements]

Aureal, I'm town reading you right now sorry for not making that clear. My discussions directed at you have been to try and get you to see scum!Idle

[IdleMuse]

The biggest point for Elements not being scum is that she really didn't have to join the Cactus wagon.

She could have steered well clear and held a decent enough position to do so.

I agree this is the biggest point in her favour, as I said in my ISO post. But given plenty of people seemed likely to vote cactus, I think it was equally likely she thought she could do that and either hop off it if it's looking like she could stall the wagon by doing so, or if not, it's strong distancing to use in her favour if the wagon does reach conclusion.

[Aureal]

Okay you guys, you're going to have to explain how you think the day goes if Elements doesn't shift to cactus. Votes do not remain static. From my PoV it seems like shifting a likely wagon on Elements into a likely wagon on cactus instead. And there's no reason for a scum Elements to avoid doing that, and in fact decent potential gain.

[Elements]

Aureal have you even considered Idle scum?

[Aureal]

Elements I'm like at least 90% sure it's you, and every time you try "but what about Idle?!?" instead of addressing my points regarding you that goes up another percent.

[Elements]

Your point is the same every time and I've responded to it

[Elements]

Point to what I haven't responded to and I'll respond to it

[Elements]

Elements I'm like at least 90% sure it's you, and every time you try "but what about Idle?!?" instead of addressing my points regarding you that goes up another percent.

How does it feel to be 90% wrong?

[Aureal]

Point to what I haven't responded to and I'll respond to it

Could start with this sort of thing.

I think that you've dug yourself a heck of a hole with my opinion, and doing exactly what I expected you to do- go on the attack against Idle- does not help your case at this point.

Maybe you want to try filling us in on what

your

thought process has been this whole time, since you've been kindly keeping us all in the dark?

You're showing us now that you're capable of putting in some effort-

why is it suddenly so urgent to do so now

? Where was this effort when you were insisting you were absolutely sure cactus was the mason because you hadn't even bothered looking at the alternative?

Elements continues to play like I'd expect a scum to do here, targeting Idle and keeping her options open with me because she needs to get through two more days, so she's fishing for info about who she can best frame tomorrow.

She's not telling us what she's been thinking. Like right here in 1204 she says she vote hopped to see what happened. Great, so what did that tell her?

Okay you guys,

you're going to have to explain how you think the day goes if Elements doesn't shift to cactus.

Votes do not remain static. From my PoV it seems like shifting a likely wagon on Elements into a likely wagon on cactus instead. And there's no reason for a scum Elements to avoid doing that, and in fact decent potential gain.

[Brickwalll]

Hey All,

Will catch up and post today. Been a busy start to the week.

[Elements]

I think that you've dug yourself a heck of a hole with my opinion, and doing exactly what I expected you to do- go on the attack against Idle- does not help your case at this point.

Maybe you want to try filling us in on what

your

thought process has been this whole time, since you've been kindly keeping us all in the dark?

You're showing us now that you're capable of putting in some effort-

why is it suddenly so urgent to do so now

? Where was this effort when you were insisting you were absolutely sure cactus was the mason because you hadn't even bothered looking at the alternative?

I've commented on my very little thought process already in 1204. Why I'm "putting in effort now" is because we have something new to go on that I can look at and analyse. Weuler's wagon was because of Meg after they claimed and then the Meg flip in the night told us nothing. Now with a scum flip there's actual information for us to analyse.

Elements continues to play like I'd expect a scum to do here, targeting Idle and keeping her options open with me because she needs to get through two more days, so she's fishing for info about who she can best frame tomorrow.

She's not telling us what she's been thinking. Like right here in 1204 she says she vote hopped to see what happened. Great, so what did that tell her?

It told me that you were hesitant to vote Cactus despite town reading him which made me question your partner equity the moment Cactus flipped.
But then BBT made me realise Cactus wasn't the mason which was the only thing stopping me from voting him and then BAM! we vote out scum.

Okay you guys,

you're going to have to explain how you think the day goes if Elements doesn't shift to cactus.

Votes do not remain static. From my PoV it seems like shifting a likely wagon on Elements into a likely wagon on cactus instead. And there's no reason for a scum Elements to avoid doing that, and in fact decent potential gain.

At Votecount 2.07

Either way I still want to vote Aureal

Me too

Both me and BBT have expressed interest in staying on the Aureal wagon until the day ends. If I'm partners with Cactus, he doesn't move his vote either. That means there will be three votes on Aureal until the end of the day.
To get me or voted out you'd either need the rest of you [Aureal, Idle, Brick, Pav] to vote me or BBT or Cactus to change their mind to want to vote me.

When I add my vibe checks the list looks like Idle>Cactus>Brick>Elements>BBT>Aureal

Pav is unlikely to vote me. BBT's demeanour towards me is very much one of town reading me. In this scenario Cactus is my scum partner so doesn't vote me.
So you get to [Aureal, Idle, Brick] which I think is unlikely to ever happen given who was more active in the thread.

Vote swinging to Cactus:

Nooo, I was still keen on a Pav wagon. Think I would have done Aureal over Cactus though, still don't thinkcactus is scum.

Brick would have hammered over joining a separate Cactus Wagon.

So the day probably ends with Brick hammering Aureal.
If it wasn't for the fact that I catalysed the Cactus wagon into fruition and we flipped scum.

[Elements]

Current thoughts on people as of right now without looking over the game at all or anything:

cactus - Town for reasons

Brickwalll - I don't think the option clashes with myself and Cactus come from scum. It made Brick stand out and now that we know my Meg pairings were wrong scum just dismissing scum reads on town doesn't seem likely. Only thoughts to the contrary is I'm surprised

IdleMuse -

Aureal - I can think of nothing memorable from this slot. Feels like it's just coasting through a slow day letting indecision build up for a potentially chaotic end of day again.

Pavowski - I vaguely remember liking him early game and I don't think he's done anything different since so I guess town lean?

BlueBloodedToffee - Similar to Pav

I'd also really like to know what you think the scum motivation behind this post is

[Aureal]

It told me that you were hesitant to vote Cactus despite

town

reading him which made me question your partner equity the moment Cactus flipped.

Both me and BBT have expressed interest in staying on the Aureal wagon until the day ends. If I'm partners with Cactus, he doesn't move his vote either. That means there will be three votes on Aureal until the end of the day.
To get me or voted out you'd either need the rest of you [Aureal, Idle, Brick, Pav] to vote me or BBT or Cactus to change their mind to want to vote me.

When I add my vibe checks the list looks like Idle>Cactus>Brick>Elements>BBT>Aureal

Pav is unlikely to vote me. BBT's demeanour towards me is very much one of town reading me. In this scenario Cactus is my scum partner so doesn't vote me.
So you get to [Aureal, Idle, Brick] which I think is unlikely to ever happen given who was more active in the thread.

I find it amusing that you're quoting vote priority lists that clearly put you over me as evidence in your favor. And you can't retroactively use Brick's recent quietness as evidence that for what you at that point thought he would do. He was actively posting at the time and had made it clear from the earlier post you cited that he was very willing to vote you, with you or Pav being priority and me fourth. Seeing as nobody was going for Pav, it could be quite reasonably expected that a wagon forming on you would cause him to shift his vote from Pav to you. Especially when/if he got the memo that Pav was the mason.

So, Idle is already voting you, you clearly expect me to vote you, and Brick looks quite likely to vote you given the absence of a wagon on Pav. So what about Pav? Pav isn't particularly wanting to vote you, but is even less wanting to vote me. He did just express a lot of confusion though. Maybe he can be tested out, by say, asking him to hammer me?

And that's when you realized that in an Aureal vs. Elements wagon day, you probably don't win. Time for a new plan.

In case it's not clear enough yet that you didn't think you could get that wagon on me through, here's your contemporaneous thoughts:

Okay team, we've got just over 1 day left to bash it out and find scum.
I'm currently voting Cactus but I'm

still up for an Aureal wagon should that become viable

So in short, when you now claim that you thought you could've just sat on my wagon to see that through, you are lying. You did not think that.

[Elements]

You're so tunneled Aureal it's painful

[Elements]

Do you think you can sell me on town!Idle?

[Elements]

Aureal, if I'm exiled and flip town who are you going after tomorrow?

[Aureal]

Current thoughts on people as of right now without looking over the game at all or anything:

cactus - Town for reasons

Brickwalll - I don't think the option clashes with myself and Cactus come from scum. It made Brick stand out and now that we know my Meg pairings were wrong scum just dismissing scum reads on town doesn't seem likely. Only thoughts to the contrary is I'm surprised

IdleMuse -

Aureal - I can think of nothing memorable from this slot. Feels like it's just coasting through a slow day letting indecision build up for a potentially chaotic end of day again.

Pavowski - I vaguely remember liking him early game and I don't think he's done anything different since so I guess town lean?

BlueBloodedToffee - Similar to Pav

I'd also really like to know what you think the scum motivation behind this post is

Because Idle and I had just called you out on not giving any insight into your thoughts, obviously. Which this doesn't do much to clarify but hey, if you're just posting it so you can point to it to say "hey look I have reads after all" like you're doing here it could maybe kind of do something?

You're so tunneled Aureal it's painful

Ah yes, the "I can't refute your point so I'm going to use a buzzword at you" defense.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

If Elements is scum they've played very well IMO

[Elements]

You called me out on not giving insight so I provide the bare minimum of a reads list that I don't even bother finishing

[Elements]

Hey BBT, do you think Aureal is tunneling on me?