Open 870 | White Flag Mountainous | Postgame

[giuseppina]

mmm it’s like

i scumread thegoldenparadox too i do

but things do not feel

right

pedit: @save the dragons - i have more time to sit down and actually look at the game on weekends and would like to see shirou’s thoughts when shirou decides to return and it seems cat scratch fever wants to hear from klick as well and I certainly would not mind having more content there

and it’s like if thegoldenparadox is mafia sure partners probably aren’t going to try to heroically save thegoldenparadox at this point - only shirou’s klick push could really potentially be described as that and if so it was, uh, quite unsuccessful and given up on - but other random votes and heatchecks potentially noteworthy

but i don’t know maybe it’s unreasonable to delay on account of us if thegoldenparadox is actually inevitable

like furtiveglance has not felt particularly towny to me and i can sit and look through those aubrey games again tomorrow

[furtiveglance]

mmm it’s like

i scumread thegoldenparadox too i do

but things do not feel

right

pedit: @save the dragons - i have more time to sit down and actually look at the game on weekends and would like to see shirou’s thoughts when shirou decides to return and it seems cat scratch fever wants to hear from klick as well and I certainly would not mind having more content there

and it’s like if thegoldenparadox is mafia sure partners probably aren’t going to try to heroically save thegoldenparadox at this point - only shirou’s klick push could really potentially be described as that and if so it was, uh, quite unsuccessful and given up on - but other random votes and heatchecks potentially noteworthy

but i don’t know maybe it’s unreasonable to delay on account of us if thegoldenparadox is actually inevitable

like furtiveglance has not felt particularly towny to me and i can sit and look through those aubrey games again tomorrow

TGP is flipping today.

The flip will be red.

You will be judged.

We all will.

[giuseppina]

okay let’s assume thegoldenparadox flips red and i am not nightkilled; how would you judge me

[Klick]

Diving deeper into TGP's progression on Shirou:

The main takeaway I get from TGP's takes on Shirou is that he's annoyed by him and the thread's perception of him. This is consistent throughout TGP's posting on Shirou. From that perspective, I think TGP's dissonance on his Shirou read makes sense if he's town.

i guess my final take here is VOTE: Shirou. The general thought process here is that

when you tunnel someone day 1 in this setup you are not much more likely than 3/13 to be right,

and suggesting "lim me afterwards if I'm wrong" in my limited experience never actually happens (like, you are at very low risk to be powerlimmed the day after). Tunneling someone off secret meta is a very great way for scum to get a lim on a townie and then later get townread for it, putting nothing on the line for it.

*

clears throat

*

Norwe

is, dare I say,

LOCKTOWN

At the moment I believe at least 2/3 of [Cakez, Totos, Pina] are town, if we're lucky maybe all of them

Probably at least one scum in [Lucian/Una], maybe two if we're lucky

Ari may or not be scum I feel she can flip either way and it wouldn't surprise me. I don't feel she did anything significantly more likely to come from scum!her but I don't see any reason to town read any of her posts so far and she posted relatively a lot already (which is kinda bad but idk maybe I suck at identifying town!her).

Also, I got us out of apathy on solving. That's my D1 contribution thank you very much for reading my blogpost and I expect many intense, fervent, scorching hot town reads on me for this

UNVOTE:

UNVOTE:
Okay I guess I'm the only one that reads this and goes "what the fuck"?
Like, I wish the meta was in a place where hyperconfidence went consistently unrewarded + when gambits like this didn't work because everyone is like "yeah we're two days into d1 stop randomly tunneling people," but it seems to me like people do (or at least did when I was playing) this often enough unironically that it provided cover for Shirou to do it.

It seems like TGP originally voted for Shirou because he found it more likely that Shirou was scum finding an excuse to push for Norway than that Shirou's read was a genuine confident scumread. I relate with the 3/13 statistical solving comment, and a similar line of thinking is the reason I largely prefer to townhunt instead of scumhunt. It's also worth noting that TGP was *correct* to be suspicious of Shirou's Norway scumread, because the scumread was in fact fake. TGP is still annoyed with Shirou after finding out the scumread was a gambit, but he loses his scumread on Shirou because Shirou admitted that the thing that was bothering TGP was just a gambit.

His later push on Shirou seems entirely spite-driven.

here is the case for shirou:
if shirou is town, he is going to get NKed by scum in the next couple of days, because they are too powerful for that to not be true, and the WIFOM isn't worth it, but we do get the benefit of a strong townie for at least a couple days, and for the NK to be Shirou as opposed to the second most powerful townie or whatever.
if shirou is scum, he has enough control over the gamestate to consistently get mislims and survive until elo by default, and shirou being scum tilts the scales a

lot

in favor of scum wins.
shirou is not much over rand to be town than to be scum. i'm uncertain how to orient towards reading him. currently scumleaning based on his push on me being a relatively cheap way to get a mislim (oh my god, guess what, TGP's statements are INCONSISTENT with his statements in October 2020, how SCANDALOUS, obviously he must be LYING).

important point here is that if you're not strongly TRing shirou than this case remains strong.

if you agree with these things then Shirou should be the elim and by no circumstances should he survive to Elo.

This in particular is blatantly not actually a *read* on Shirou, but rather an argument for eliminating Shirou outside of reads. Rereading this I have strong doubts that scum decides this is what they should post, especially when there was no real pressure on Shirou at the time AND there was some pressure on TGP. I dont think scum chooses this argument, but I think it's clear that TGP is annoyed and I think that annoyance is most clearly explained by TGP not knowing what to do about reading Shirou in general.

I haven't that much experience on Lucian/Una so I feel scummy vibes but not "never wrong"/"almost never wrong" confidence

If you do feel that I can vote Una

i'm insanely skeptical that you can even hit that level of confidence on d1 reliably ever

...but god, you're just town aren't you Shirou

UNVOTE:

i maintain that i should vote you if i don't reasonably strongly townread you but right now even trying to discount hard for the fact that activity makes you seem more towny you seem actually trying to solve the game

TGP comes back to the thread about 6 hours later and decides that Shirou is probably just town. This doesn't feel unnatural to me, it feels like TGP calmed down and had a think about actually solving for Shirou's alignment.

Overall I can see where TGP is coming from and get town vibes off of TGP's Shirou read.

[furtiveglance]

okay let’s assume thegoldenparadox flips red and i am not nightkilled; how would you judge me

In a judgy way.

I haven't read any of your posts apart from calling yourself obvtown rather awkwardly - 'it me', as I recall.

I will need to read more

[giuseppina]

… excellent

[Klick]

VOTE: TGP

Aside from the hammer, I also think TGP is scummy for pushing Shirou for policy reasons but trying to not make it seem like a policy push (1076 says shirou's metapush is scummy but he also needs to be fearlimmed)

Then his transition to a Shirou townread in 1328 feels too sudden and unnatural. If you look at TGP's ISO, he has alternated between scumreading Shirou and being uncertain about him ever since page 22 (614 - votes Shirou). The quoted Shirou post that gives him a change of heart doesn't even feel that AI to me -

Spoiler:

I haven't that much experience on Lucian/Una so I feel scummy vibes but not "never wrong"/"almost never wrong" confidence

If you do feel that I can vote Una

i'm insanely skeptical that you can even hit that level of confidence on d1 reliably ever

...but god, you're just town aren't you Shirou

UNVOTE:

i maintain that i should vote you if i don't reasonably strongly townread you but right now even trying to discount hard for the fact that activity makes you seem more towny you seem actually trying to solve the game

Also 865 feels like it was edited after the fact to add a respond to Aristeia's 653 (the quoted posts are out of order)

Note to self to give a proper look at TGP's progression on Shirou when I've got the time. Promise I'm not ignoring you Cat.

If there's anything else you wanted to talk about here Cat let me know
I'm not particularly compelled by the editing argument, I only really respond to things in the order they happened in the thread most of the time because people like that more, it doesn't feel AI to me

[giuseppina]

also the entire point of that post was with regards to you scumreading toto for things that are not actually scum indicative?

but now you are onto ‘thegoldenparadox is definitely a scums and fireisredsir is likely their partner’, so

pedit:@furtiveglance

[Save The Dragons]

maybe i'm swayed not to want to murder tgp immediately

[Klick]

but also maybe i should be better at reading what you have posted so far if you’re town given but i do not have that feeling,

so!

Hi giuseppina
Can I have more detailed thoughts from you about NorwegianboyEE?
My read on him is largely a sheep of Shirou's confident townread but I'm interested in hearing a dissenting perspective if you have one

[Shirou]

I was about to sleep but remembered about this game

this game sure is one of the games of all games

I saw Furt replaced Aubrey I think? Fwiw my large PoE was [TGP, Klick, Aubrey, Lucian, Toto]

My middle sized PoE was [Klick, Aubrey, TGP] because we've 3 lims and I think there's at least one scum on that, after finding out the scum on it dunno, look at the larger PoE

too lazy to explain myself on why maybe later

[Shirou]

there's still 4 days to deadline ok

there's still time to do stuff in this weekend

goodnight

[Klick]

shirou and thegoldenparadox wagons still feel better to me than fireisredsir

neither furtiveglance nor thegoldenparadox feel very towny to me and aristeia did at times as did fireisredsir’s beginning of day (which i know have to take into consideration that fireisredsir was reading before having an alignment and such but still)

I'm also curious about why you thought Ari felt towny

[furtiveglance]

also the entire point of that post was with regards to you scumreading toto for things that are not actually scum indicative?

but now you are onto ‘thegoldenparadox is definitely a scums and fireisredsir is likely their partner’, so

pedit:@furtiveglance

TGP is my biggest scumread now

[giuseppina]

it generally feels like norwegianboyee is

here

to me but not really pushing the game in a direction and that’s not really what i would expect from norwegianboyee as town

like it’s not the lack of ‘solving’ or anything it would be weird if norwegianboyee started presenting cases or something but the lack of pushing for what norwegianboyee wants is odd to me like i kinda assumed in previous games that that is how norwegianboyee sorts - simply by pushing whoever and gauging responses but there’s a chance that’s an altogether inaccurate assumption on my part as it was largely formed when i was playing as a scums

[giuseppina]

^@klick

[furtiveglance]

maybe i'm swayed not to want to murder tgp immediately

Do not be fooled. This setup is based around scum not being able to bus. Why are people defending TGP when they need to die based on their awful posting and tone? Put your vote back on and reap the rewards.

'oh wow furtive are you saying Klick/giuseppina scum now? stop flip-flopping'

We'll cross that bridge later.

To all the other town, read TGP in isolation and block out the voices. Then vote them.

We are close to the top of the mountain, do not turn around.

[fireisredsir]

hm

[Toto]

Lmao shurro

[furtiveglance]

We have 11 players now. Vote off mafia today, and the game's basically ours. I believe in this vote enough to stake my life in this game/reputation (don't really have one but meh) on it

[fireisredsir]

maybe im bad at this whole "don't hero solve" thing but klick's post just made me go back to thinking it's both tgp and shirou, not that tgp is town

[NorwegianboyEE]

it generally feels like norwegianboyee is

here

to me but not really pushing the game in a direction and that’s not really what i would expect from norwegianboyee as town

like it’s not the lack of ‘solving’ or anything it would be weird if norwegianboyee started presenting cases or something but the lack of pushing for what norwegianboyee wants is odd to me like i kinda assumed in previous games that that is how norwegianboyee sorts - simply by pushing whoever and gauging responses but there’s a chance that’s an altogether inaccurate assumption on my part as it was largely formed when i was playing as a scums

God ur so town.

[fireisredsir]

why are people so confident on things that they shouldn't probably be confident on

[NorwegianboyEE]

Is blinding.

[furtiveglance]

I'm going to bed. If TGP has been hammered when I wake up, I'll be happy. If they haven't, I'll be annoyed. If the wagon has gone, I'll be livid.