@STD I don’t think it’s weird, I think you’re both scum but for the reasons I’ve stated, I’d prefer to lim you first.
@NK are you suggesting that Arko claimed the FN publicly so that he could kill CCG, and not be tied to the kill since the information was now public (and not privately known to just him)?
In post 600, AurorusVox wrote:
@STD I don’t think it’s weird, I think you’re both scum but for the reasons I’ve stated, I’d prefer to lim you first.
@NK are you suggesting that Arko claimed the FN publicly so that he could kill CCG, and not be tied to the kill since the information was now public (and not privately known to just him)?
Part that, part not having to townread the FN for covert reasons(which made Arko more suspect). It is extra manipulation effort to do on top of being scum if that happens...
Let's face it, what would have happened if CCG died and Arko lied about having been visited by CCG, or not. Both would have put suspicions on Arko.
I also made the same point in my large post earlier. I squared that in my thinking as a combo of the wagon being supported by CCG, and the possible bussing coming from yourself (“I think I’ll vote him but let me see”) or in a world where you’re town, coming from arko (realising after LLD said she’d put NK at e-1 and you said you’d vote them that the elimination was happening whether he supported it or not)
I’m curious why the second option hasn’t occurred to you, since that’s the likely bus with town!STD
In post 600, AurorusVox wrote:
@STD I don’t think it’s weird, I think you’re both scum but for the reasons I’ve stated, I’d prefer to lim you first.
@NK are you suggesting that Arko claimed the FN publicly so that he could kill CCG, and not be tied to the kill since the information was now public (and not privately known to just him)?
Part that, part not having to townread the FN for covert reasons(which made Arko more suspect). It is extra manipulation effort to do on top of being scum if that happens...
Let's face it, what would have happened if CCG died and Arko lied about having been visited by CCG, or not. Both would have put suspicions on Arko.
How would we have known he’d lied? CCG could have visited KT for all we knew. In the first case no one would have claimed the visit N1 anyway?
Lady Lamdadelta. The most apt adjective for her slot is probably nothing short of chaotic. From the 1 and a half days we have played with her slot, we have come to understand that she is generally an aggressive and conversational player, not afraid of getting into heated 1v1s during the day. On the contrary, her predecessor, Fredrick A Campbell was a rather conserved slot. So, let's see how that impression holds up to her ISO, shall we?
Here is where the real deal starts. Out of a sudden, LLD tries to start a counterwagon that is completely different from the two main existing wagons (FAC/her slot and Dio). Is this necessarily a scum tell? Not really. As a new voice into the almost stagnated gamestate, any sub slot often has valuable opinion to offer, and can often discover certain things that perhaps all of us have missed. What is it about NK15 tho? What LLD brings up as "evidence" is not really evidence. One-liner first posts are almost never good evidence, and neither are second page read lists. Then, how does it make sense for a SE player to push a widely townread player after subbing in? Regardless of their own alignment, it is always likely to backfire. A few arguments can be made in favour of both town and scum!LLD. One, town!LLD noticed something was off about this universal townread, and decided to contribute to town by bringing it to light. However, no evidence is actually presented, which makes this possibility iffy. It's as if she's withholding information from us, much like Campbell. Town!LLD here has all the motives to share all the available evidence, espeically since she was on the verge of hammer and she didn't choose the easier way out: the Dio counterwagon, immediately. Till this point, LLD's motivations may seem NAI, but there is just one little catch. She kept the door open for a shift, and the moment Dio starts interacting with her, she zeroes in on him. Taken in isolation, just these push-posts are townie enough, and Dio's responses certainly don't help his case. Due to the nature of Dio's replies, LLD was quite townily able to put the FoS on him and force out replies by prodding. But, the initial motivation certainly is not townie by any means. Scum!LLD has the motivation the muddy the water through this play, and it seems like a possible SE play. I cannot explain how this set of events plays out from the PoV of town!LLD.
Note: A funny coincidence I found is that NK15 is on Campbell's page 2 readlist. Also FAC mentions in his ISO that he tad taken notes
Spoiler: Lady's Dio Tunnel + 1 interaction with NK
In post 206, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
A fascinating pop in! From a player who knows I have o ly just joined the gane to say the game has stagnated the MOMENT I begin to reinvograte the game.
Are you afraid of what happens if I'm not hammered soon?
I think you know that calling this game stagnating when two new active players have come in to reinvigorate it is a lie.
In post 206, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:A fascinating pop in! From a player who knows I have o ly just joined the gane to say the game has stagnated the MOMENT I begin to reinvograte the game.
Are you afraid of what happens if I'm not hammered soon?
I think you know that calling this game stagnating when two new active players have come in to reinvigorate it is a lie.
In post 206, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:A fascinating pop in! From a player who knows I have o ly just joined the gane to say the game has stagnated the MOMENT I begin to reinvograte the game.
Are you afraid of what happens if I'm not hammered soon?
I think you know that calling this game stagnating when two new active players have come in to reinvigorate it is a lie.
No. The game had stagnated. State your case if you want but I am comfortable with you being eliminated.
Go on and tell me why that is.
Why are you comfortable with my slot being eliminated?
Why are you comfortable with an elimination after a stagnated vote when that almosy invariably means that the eliminee is town and that the townies have an unchallenged assumption that is wrong holding them in this status quo?
And for someone so certain you have shockingly little to say om the matter besides "let's wrap it up here folks"
Your predecessor was all over the place. Going back and forth on reads like a metronome. When pressed his defence was that he was behaving scummy on purpose because reasons. The way you have jumped in so aggressively swinging for others is giving cornered scum desperately trying to survive the day. It's not fooling me.
Oh? Let's go take a look and see if these buzzwords hold any water.
He starts off scum reading a pair, then gives his logic for a town read on space which he maintains.
He changes his scum reads because he feels humble and suspects that the hard scum reads on him are town. This isn't something a scum player who wants to avoid dying would do.
He then interacts with Weu and switches his read there. Again, this is a townie read progression from a player who is lost and genuinely sorting the game.
In post 218, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
What you describe does my work for me. It shows an unconfident player flipping his reads trying to solve the game with a very easy profession of reads to see if you read him in ISO.
In other words... A townie.
What would be the scum motivation of flip floppong this much? It would be much better to say... Confidently push for a desth and then reevaluate after the townie dies, no?
In post 219, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In essence... Your argument doesn't hold any water. The motivations kg the player's actions you described were town.
You on the other hand fit the bill for scum perfectly.
Lurking massively to end of day to avoid blood on yoyr hands and when a replacement finally comes in and starts making waves you feel a need to add pressure to ensure their death.
That. Is. Scum 101.
In post 220, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
I must return to work now, but I really like Dio/NK15 for a scum team here and I suspect you will get a lot mpre information today from killing one of those slots over defaulting to a now dead status quo.
I was about to ask you to reconcile your paired read with the NK post where he asked me to consider Fred-Dio. But then I realised they -if- your slot is town, then that’s an easy suspicion to then later dismiss (because the pair can no longer be true). Personally though, NK is my second strongest townread, so I won’t be voting them today.
Pedit: NK pushed me when it looked like I’d dropped my Dio suspicion. I don’t think they’ve let Dio slide by.
———
My primary concern is that we end up with no consensus and no elimination; there isn’t a great deal of time to organise another wagon. My secondary issue here is that if anyone is capable of turning a scumread into a townread - regardless of alignment - I think you’d be a good shout for it. I mean, I’m already feeling like not voting for you! My tertiary concern would be running up another claim and risking outing a PR and we eliminate Fred slot anyway.
@Dio, it’s not about no one wanting to eliminate Fred at the moment, it’s about giving people time to post their final reads. With the risk of being night killed, I need to make sure I’m contributing as much as I can at the end of the day to support town going forward. LLD is here to post content and whether that slot is eliminated or not, we get valuable information from seeing what they have to say.
———
Weuler, to be clear, have you unvoted because you believe them to be town, or because you were worried about someone hammering before LLD could post their views?
I'll give you a WS read when I get home and have better ISO access.
I get the fear of me but also consider the benefit of me and my reads.
Read Frederic again under the lens they were humbled by the pressure on them and trying to find a solving foothold they believed in.
And then read the people making arguments about fear of running up other claims.
It's way worse to kill a townie day 1 with little info gained than possibly force a claim. This setup has win equity with a day 1 mass claim. More equity than with a day 1 town elimination.
There will be an elimination today. I will guarantee it.
In post 235, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
So work on not letting your reads stagnate, work with me to find scum and we will gather the votes to kill them together.
Most are quite townie posts, no matter if taken in isolation or not. The one thing that I do not quite buy or like is the Fred defense, but it is partly credible. Well, at least an SE managed to comprehend Campbell to some extent.
In post 243, AurorusVox wrote:@LLD I think it’s disingenuous to suggest that a Fred-slot elimination is one that offers “little info gained.” My biggest question is why Fred never voted WS when he expressed suspicions of them. For a long time, WS was at E-2 and they never voted for them. KT is also somewhat tied to your slot (that’s a little harder to parse). But I do think the elimination gives info on those two in particular.
Actually, I’d love a read on KT too when you are back.
@NK @weuler: how do both of you feel about LLD’s push on Dio?
Its literqlly stagnated so much that no one can seem to give me a clear idea about why he is scummy. The game stalled and now peiple are arguing " well we just have to kill that slot".
I feel very justified in saying its a low info elimination on a townie.
ALL ABOARD ME JOLLY BOYS GIRLS AND OTHER GENDERS OF CHOICE!
Does Town!LLD have a motive to not vote Dio if she begins to suspect his slot? It takes her a solid number of posts to vote him. This may seems like a towny progression of reads, but keep the previous analysis in mind. Here, she asks the rest of town to vote and only after AV votes does she join in. I do not quite like this sequence of events. I do not have an opinion on her defense of Fred either.
In post 267, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
WS is kinda scummy, but their posts have this genuine ring to them? It's weird. The scummiest thing they did was try to connect KT to my slot's death via claiming it's like a chainsaw but... I honestly can see a townie makign that argument, it's not GOOD but it doesn't mean it's not town.
WS slot is one I'll need to see more from, and given it's STD, I'm sure we will.
Nothing too much worth noting, except for the KT townread. If we are in the town!LLD world, other scum does have motive to use this against her, but it's a stretch in logic to say that.
They all have Dionysus at the bottom of their reads list, as scum and have all managed to find the time to either vote for LHF in Fred or to push WS instead.
The WS push by KT while keeping Dio on list is interesting IFF KT has a partner on the Fred wagon and was expecting Fred to die, then to be able to do WS. That partner can be Dio.
Space literally does BOTH.
So... for me
If Dio flips scum, one of these 4 is the partner. It won't be my slot, it probably won't be AV who could have let the clock run out on a Dionysus push, and it's probably not Weuler either.
So for me... if we do Dio today and Dio flips scum, this is the order
Myself, AV, Weuler town
WS- Possible scum counter wagon to mine
KT, CCGeek, NK15, Space- Possible Dio partners, in various orders.
At that point we will have some extra roles to be able to claim and possibly use to clear some people via a claiming method I will grab you from another newbie I played a dead ass long time ago.
But in my mind, if Dio scum, you can be nearly certain of AV and Weuler town. If Dio's town, I'll be alive tomorrow anyway to re-evaluate cause they won't shoot me.
Suddenly there's a tonal shift for some reason, as LLD makes a slightly uninformed post. I dealt with this in a previous post of mine that LLD never responded to. Don't know if this was intentional or not, but this seems way out of line for the supposed SE LLD. Weirdly however, this is not the first time a misinformative post has been made by her, see: my second comment in this post.
Using it as the only reason to continue your scum read against me is a scummy continuation read from a former LHF who you could say practically anything about and be fine, and now it's harder.
As it happens... I'm sorry your easy town elimination suddenly morphed into Me, but.... adapt or perish.
In post 281, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
You're calling me scrambling to find an elimination that isn't me, but Survivalism is not a scum tell.
Of course I'm being aggressive and seeking scum this rapidly when my neck is on the line and there are less than 2 days remaining in the day.
When players at the beginning of the day told "eh we will just kill your slot anyway" and sought to maintain apathy.
Of course I'm going to make moves to shake up that paradigm and protect myself from dying while killing someone I think is scum.
It's not "Scrambling" or.. Scrabbling? It's survivalism and it's a Non Alignment Indicative trait.
In post 281, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:You're calling me scrambling to find an elimination that isn't me, but Survivalism is not a scum tell.
Of course I'm being aggressive and seeking scum this rapidly when my neck is on the line and there are less than 2 days remaining in the day.
When players at the beginning of the day told "eh we will just kill your slot anyway" and sought to maintain apathy.
Of course I'm going to make moves to shake up that paradigm and protect myself from dying while killing someone I think is scum.
It's not "Scrambling" or.. Scrabbling? It's survivalism and it's a Non Alignment Indicative trait.
By all means be aggressive. But you haven't been seeking scum. You've been hounding me just because I had a firm read on your predecessor. That's literally what made you target me. If you're town and you manage to get me out today, you're gonna be so embarrassed. It'll be nice to see!
Except this is a misrepresentation.
I began on NK15, gave reads on AV, WS, KT and Space individually and then sought out the WS wagon to view some more reads for future depending on if I was right or wrong about you.
I've literally done nothing but hunt for scum since I arrived.
Attempting to represent that as only hounding onto you for being suspicious of me is not only catagorically false, it's also likely argued from a place of frustration because you felt strongly you had my slot dead to rights and now you're on the ropes.
These reactions you are giving to the status quo shifting are not townie, for the record.
I expect if Dio flips scum, I'll be shot for being dangerous and more or less proven town.
If Dio flips town though, it'll mean I, knowing I'm a townie, and scum who know I'm town, will not likely shoot me because they believe they can get me miseliminated.
I get I'm competent and skilled but as long as I'm suspicious, being shot is a lower possibility.
In post 291, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
That's all the line was trying to say. The post was trying to setup for the world I think we are in where Dio is scum and I die tonight and leave you all behind my reads.
If Dio is town, I think I won't die and I'll have time to re-evaluate and restate my opinions anyway so I only need to leave a Will for the first scenario.
In post 293, Weuler wrote:Lady town and KT scum is an interesting thought
If KT scum, do you not think Dio scum naturally follows?
A lot of people have that connection built, do you disagree?
In post 300, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.
You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.
Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.
In post 300, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.
You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.
Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself
and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.
BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.
Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.
Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?
Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.
In post 300, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.
You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.
Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself
and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.
BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.
Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.
Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?
Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.
Interesting that you ignored me but have something to say to NK15 here.
Why do I need to talk to you? At this point I'm fairly convinced you are scum, so what would I be convincing you of?
I'm talking to OTHER people, not you. I don't gain anything from responding directly to you. I will prove your points wrong and sell my points to people I think are town.
Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.
I'm not willing to lim Dio if the alternative is you.
It doesn't make sense. Why should I lim an unclaimed suspect when I have a claimed suspect? Especially when that claimed suspect is trying to get the unclaimed suspect to Intent?
So... you haven't addressed that obvious BS on Campbell yet. Why did you write that?
Because it's true? Just from reading his posts he clearly had 0 concept what he was doing and 0 direction or intent with it despite trying to solve the game desperately.
In post 300, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:You can continue to call them obvious scum as much as you like but at every turn I have provided counter argument to your MINIMAL evidence and claims that you have yet to be able to provide a reasonable response to, nor have you been able to tell me why I'm scummy in any reasonable fashion besides saying I'm scrambling which isn't anything at all.
You've been effectively utilizing buzzwords and general "feelings" about things to try and drive things forward but just because you say someone is obvious scum doesn't mean they are.
Frederic was an inexperienced townie who got wrapped up on himself
and I'm here giving town, hunting scum and checking you at every turn.
BIB: sorry, what? Inexperienced townie players do stupid things like claim when they shouldn't, believe obvious lies and make other mistakes due to not fully understanding game mechanics. Inexperienced townie players do not embark on a game of 3d chess where they attempt to act suspiciously on purpose. You're claiming I have provided minimal evidence for my claims - you haven't provided any evidence for this one beyond your word.
Yes, I agree, this bolded line is absolutely bullshit.
Oh hey there NK 15, tell me, is Dio scum for you?
Cause Dio's on L-1, so, today would be the day to prove you genuinely have that read and it's not just something you're saying for the sake of saying it.
Interesting that you ignored me but have something to say to NK15 here.
Why do I need to talk to you? At this point I'm fairly convinced you are scum, so what would I be convincing you of?
I'm talking to OTHER people, not you. I don't gain anything from responding directly to you. I will prove your points wrong and sell my points to people I think are town.
What an odd reply...? Nobody needs to respond to anyone, but ignoring someone when they make a very valid point is, uh, scummy. If the situation was reversed you would be all over me for this.
Your point ISN'T valid... and you're scum, so anything you say is intended to kill me... which you're trying to do.
In post 323, Save The Dragons wrote:i don't think i want to vote dionysus today, i think there are far worse slots tbh
we don't have time for another counter wagon, also Dio's scum.
A very large chunk of posts. Despite what I say on the spoiler tag, these are relatively townie for LLD. I still do not 100% buy the Fred defence.
_________________________________________________________________________________________
Spoiler: Following interactions w STD
In post 327, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Like, STD, saying what you're saying is effectively setting up to vote on someone you called town like 5 posts ago.
There's no space to do anyone but Dio or I today at this point.
In post 329, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
like STD if you vote me here over Dio it's literally a scumclaim after you called me town not 5 posts ago
I mean, okay but how can we have any space to switch it this late in? The two dunderheads are never not voting me and you would need to gather 4 other troops for another wagon
No scum motives for these, really. (I now get what Dio meant by LLD is rude - no offense lol)
pedit: are you crucifying LLD for not knowing Fredrick was SE? what am i looking at?
They're hopping on my use of the word inexperienced to describe how Frederic played like he didn't know what the fuck he was doing. Which I think is a pretty fair description? To be honest?
It's.... it's ridiculous.
Another thing that gave me pause. The points about FAC possibly being inexperienced at scum under D1 pressure were possibly valid. Also, as a sub, LLD should very well know that FAC was a SE.
In post 342, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
What gets me most, STD, is I kind of doubt both NK15 and Dio can be scum here together anymore because if they are they're literally losing when I flip town. They both die back to back after that, so...
In post 398, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Basically JK worlds provide possible false info. And scum know what world we are in.
My thoughts are that we proxy claim jailkeepers. Everyone claims JK wnd who they targetted N1. That way... We can have more info.
In post 400, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
That is such bad logic. FN is not better than a IC right now and is actively worse if we run them up today or they get shot tonight.
FN should claim as help us as an IC today.
Doctor can claim too, it's probably fine but JK proxy claims where no one knows who the real JK is is the only way to do that safely.
NK, are you like... Bad at mafia or just scum?
In post 401, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Like its polarizing for me, because if you genuinely don't get this, saying ad such is a town tell.
But if you are clever enough to get proxy claims, resistance to them is a scum tell.
In post 403, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Bruh, they won't know who to RB because everyone proxy claims. It's just an additional info claim for possible use later.
Additionally, FN claim is always correct. Its ALWAYS WRONG TO ALLOW FN TO SIT ON THEIR INFO INSTEAD OF CLEARING.
FN is arguably MORE USELESS THAN DOCTOR HERE. all they do its tell others at night that they are town. They don't solve any bonus townies. They are a literal IC who possobly could have targetted scum last night and scum could be killing them tonight. It's high odds.
If you are okay with doctor claiming FN shouls be claiming too.
In post 404, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
If FN is NK'd without being able to give their thoughts and lead town, it's a total waste.
IC's use is best used to lead confused towns
In post 405, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Like Doctor and FN are the same role at this point except Doctor could theoretically save a kill if he didn't claim.
All FN does is tell other playera they are town. Which can be scum. Which can get them killed.
So being okay with Doctor claiming and NOT FN claiming is fucking weird.
In post 409, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
I'm severely rolling my eyes at "not all IC's are good leaders" my dude.
My brother in christ.
They are by definition useful leaders because if they are bad enough to be strung up it removes a free push for scum and they can direct discussion and jf they are good enough to lead they are already in a good spot to use it.
This logic of yours is pointless.
Half the point of the JK proxy claim is to see who would target what, and use that to read them in later days.
Like... Are you seriously this backwards.
The scum have an RB and a kill each night in JK world. They will chip away at the odds eventually. There are 7 of us left, 2 of us are scum so among 5 targets they get a 40 % chance at it anyway.
Night1 JK target does inform us a decent amount if you can reaso. Who is likely yo make kills from what scum pairing and logically sort yhat way.
In general you are denying information on ALL fronts.
FN and Doctor are equally useless in terms of power and the only reason to hide them would be if you think they don't die tonight.
Except, again... 5 townies alive . in that world they rolecopped one of them, 4. They shoot and rolecop another tonight, assuming we don't hit the role cop today.
That's bad bad bad odds that FN or Doctor kice through tonight. A doctor save hard clears 2 people, is the worth of it. Not about the numbers about cleared townies.
Doctor has more value than FN does to not claim. Doctor could clear an additional townie.
If anyone missed it, LLD brought up this method in D1, the proxy-claim and the anti-NK logic all make sense @ town!LLD. Scum!LLD incentives are missing yet again.
NK/LLD do you have any non-mechanics things you’d like to pick up on? Do either of you think the mechanics talk is alignment indicative at this stage?
———
Just to try to put the mechanics stuff to bed asap and as clearly as possible, can anyone who has any view on claims complete the following for your opinion:
Scum know what world we are in because they know which roles they have.
So if we do wait and see it fully informs their shots, based on the suspicions of the players who are in the game. It near guaranteeeees that we're seeing our PR flop up dead tomorrow without being of any use to us.
Also town.
Spoiler: The KT shot discussion
In post 437, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Regardless, your description of what happened between the person who was pushing me to die when I joined the game and I is.... very incomplete and at best a fairly weak shot. It feels almost like you expect it will be called out for being generally empty as a comment, which you sort of cover iwth the "what did you expect" part of your reads list.
But it's empty all the same. You're criticizing me for choosing not to directly engage, one time, with a person who not only did I think was scum but also was the ONLY AVAILABLE COUNTERWAGON TO ME.
You're using the same bad arguments others used to push Frederic, and notably, here's a little tidbit for you.
Does scum LLD shoot the player she invited to this website who has a SOLID TOWNREAD on her slot over night? Cause the KT shot wasn't a tracker hunting shot, it was N1, there's no info or other tells that KT was a power role.
KT was shot for being townie and for being RIGHT. What was he right about, I wonder? What elimination would he have opposed today, do you think?
Even if you think KT would have re-evaluated on me, isn't it better for me to shoot someone who was shown to like...not be willing to listen to me?
How about the person who hard thought I was scum until I said that Dio and he couldn't BOTH be scum here, at which point he called me town... and then walked into today with a vote on me again.
You don't think I shoot that player and try to reason with KT, AV and STD, all players who I have respect from and for and could possibly sell on me being town and giving me a shot?
Cause if I'm scum here, I'd take that one day, kill a townie, shoot one of them in their face, and eat my rope tomorrow.
and that's 5:2 today, 4:2 3:2 after that plan
3:1 after they finally kill me
2:1 after the night kill, and I setup my partner in ELO to win the game for us without a whole lot of connectives.
The KT kill is the SINGLE worst choice for me as scum in this position, it's nonsensical.
In post 439, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Like, anyone who is scumreading me at this point needs to strongly consider why the fuck scum!LLD shoots KT in the face over any of the slots way more suspicious of me and/or willing to kill me.
Like Weu who ended the day voting me, or NK15, who was so very clearly going to default back to me after calling me town yesterday.
If you can't give an answer to that that isn't "for this WIFOM, obviously" which... given how few votes are in the town today.... terrible argument, then you lack real situational reads on me.
I'm just not scum here, because I never shoot KT here.
In post 443, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Bonus thought for people who think "well, what if you thought KT would flip on you and call you scum today?"
A casual reminder that the same thing that initially damned me here, being a replacement, is what saves me when it comes to KT. KT didn't town read me, though they did find me town. They initially strongly town read my PREDECESSOR. Someone who, I think we can all admit has a lot less capability for subterfuge.
KT would have to backtrack on BOTH those independent reads to flip on me today.
There's no WIFOM value to shooting them, it's better to have them alive to protect me. There's no role hunting value, I mean.... there's no real clues beyond KT being town.
KT was VERY obviously town, but that only lends itself to why they could have led me into a better spot today being alive, if I were scum.
The math, the situational game, the current position, none of it makes sense for an LLD!Scum killing KT.
In post 458, Save The Dragons wrote:
I feel like LLD cutting off "WIFOM" as an option is something i've done as scum before to try and get ahead of an argument. i have to think about this a little bit.
i feel like inviting him to the site doesn't matter if you're playing the game you're going to go for it. if you suspected KT of being a PR you would go for it regardless of how much you knew them. if you wanted to get rid of a highly tr player you would go for it. if you wanted to strategically set up a WIFOM argument only to knee cap it right away, you would go for it. i get that it seems unlikely but there are reasons for it and i can't disregard them without at least thinking about them.
My dude if I suspected him of being a PR I double wouldn't shoot him with his Fredericbtownread.
I'd pocket that mofo.
This isn't a situation where the end result is in question. It's a combination of factors. He knows me + he town read my predecessor hard + he town read me hard. It's so easy to have him live 1 more day, kill a townie, shoot him tonight and then win off that.
Like have a little respect for my simply that I wouldn't say myself up to me on the verge of elimination two days in a row
A very interesting thing here is that, as I said before, the KT shot could be used against LLD? Well, this makes scum!arko possible here.
Spoiler: Aggression with Analysis
In post 437, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Regardless, your description of what happened between the person who was pushing me to die when I joined the game and I is.... very incomplete and at best a fairly weak shot. It feels almost like you expect it will be called out for being generally empty as a comment, which you sort of cover iwth the "what did you expect" part of your reads list.
But it's empty all the same. You're criticizing me for choosing not to directly engage, one time, with a person who not only did I think was scum but also was the ONLY AVAILABLE COUNTERWAGON TO ME.
You're using the same bad arguments others used to push Frederic, and notably, here's a little tidbit for you.
Does scum LLD shoot the player she invited to this website who has a SOLID TOWNREAD on her slot over night? Cause the KT shot wasn't a tracker hunting shot, it was N1, there's no info or other tells that KT was a power role.
KT was shot for being townie and for being RIGHT. What was he right about, I wonder? What elimination would he have opposed today, do you think?
Even if you think KT would have re-evaluated on me, isn't it better for me to shoot someone who was shown to like...not be willing to listen to me?
How about the person who hard thought I was scum until I said that Dio and he couldn't BOTH be scum here, at which point he called me town... and then walked into today with a vote on me again.
You don't think I shoot that player and try to reason with KT, AV and STD, all players who I have respect from and for and could possibly sell on me being town and giving me a shot?
Cause if I'm scum here, I'd take that one day, kill a townie, shoot one of them in their face, and eat my rope tomorrow.
and that's 5:2 today, 4:2 3:2 after that plan
3:1 after they finally kill me
2:1 after the night kill, and I setup my partner in ELO to win the game for us without a whole lot of connectives.
The KT kill is the SINGLE worst choice for me as scum in this position, it's nonsensical.
In post 439, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Like, anyone who is scumreading me at this point needs to strongly consider why the fuck scum!LLD shoots KT in the face over any of the slots way more suspicious of me and/or willing to kill me.
Like Weu who ended the day voting me, or NK15, who was so very clearly going to default back to me after calling me town yesterday.
If you can't give an answer to that that isn't "for this WIFOM, obviously" which... given how few votes are in the town today.... terrible argument, then you lack real situational reads on me.
I'm just not scum here, because I never shoot KT here.
In post 443, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Bonus thought for people who think "well, what if you thought KT would flip on you and call you scum today?"
A casual reminder that the same thing that initially damned me here, being a replacement, is what saves me when it comes to KT. KT didn't town read me, though they did find me town. They initially strongly town read my PREDECESSOR. Someone who, I think we can all admit has a lot less capability for subterfuge.
KT would have to backtrack on BOTH those independent reads to flip on me today.
There's no WIFOM value to shooting them, it's better to have them alive to protect me. There's no role hunting value, I mean.... there's no real clues beyond KT being town.
KT was VERY obviously town, but that only lends itself to why they could have led me into a better spot today being alive, if I were scum.
The math, the situational game, the current position, none of it makes sense for an LLD!Scum killing KT.
In post 489, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Honestly this logic only comes from town no scum is ever this in the weeds about this ever.
Cool. So 2 of AV STD NK and Weu?
STD/NK seems viable.
Weu is probbbbably just town honestly. Probably willing to bet the game on it.
But AV being unwilling to do NK yesterday leaves a connection there.
So AV/NK or STD/NK either way I should push for NK to die?
In post 491, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
If you do decide to kill me today, kill NK tomorrow then decide between STD and AV. Day 1 will be your guide there IDK.
It's obviously better if we do NK today first because then you have the extra elimination, but whether people are willing to give me that is another question.
In post 493, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Like at this point for me Weu Aklo and CCG can all be town and its 2 of the other 3. If that 3 I listed are all town and can find me as town, the game is over and we win because we have one miselimination.
In post 492, Arko wrote:
Process of elimination, Process of elimination, And also just your god-awful Meta-Defense, your play last day, and your predecessor. Also, Hitting the one out of the ones I'm trying to say is town at a lower degree than the confirmed one? I mean It's not hard to see why, but either way, probably saying that got your grave dug, no matter your alignment, due to calling out 3 people as possible scum, with one of the people most town out of them being the common link, Either you get absolutely beat to death as mafia by town, or you get scum-hammered very, very quickly as town.
My dude, at this point do you even really think I'm scum or is this an ego check for you?
In post 495, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Like I'm trying REALLY hard not to just say "kay when I flip town kill Aklo tomorrow" so you can learn your lesson about ego tripping in mafia. I'm supposed to be SE so I'll play more nice, but the truth is I am town and you aren't making a while lot of sense.
In post 496, Arko wrote:
I do really think your scum, but of cause, you on either alignment gets beat to death today. Pointing that out. Anyways, If it ends up your town for some god-forsaken reason somehow, we can go from there.
This is a bad way to play mafia.
I dont necessarily die today. Infact if I was willing to pretend I thought you were scum I could probably kill you over me today.
I've done it before. And scum will be on board because I'll be perma suspicious tomorrow.
So between the two of us, right now, you are the one making an error.
In post 498, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Been struggling with it all day. Even last night, the post I made before I went to bed. I have a massive townread on you but I feel somewhat obligated to push you because it's my only survival out and I don't trust your reading skills alive tomorrow because you'll probably kill Weu for some reason
In post 500, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
Because if I remove You CCG and myself from the picture, and look at the reminaing 4
1) Weu has no real buddy connections I can mark, i.e a AV/Weu team seems the most likely of those 4 pairings and even that seems hard to gather.
2) Weu has been actively solving in a way a lot of other players haven't
3) Weu has been acting without much agenda on both yesterday and today, including in posts like him clarifying whether he ended the day on me or not, and unvoting me when I asked for it, but then considering the wagons.
Weu to me reads as town. Am I 100% sure? No, but I'm sure enough that if I killed NK and he flipped scum and killed AV and he flipped town, then I'd always kill STD over Weu. And same for any other pairing in order. I cannot and do not see myself every thinking Weu more scummy than any of those 3, and since we only have 1 miselim it's important to consider those metrics.
then, AV/STD is suuuuuper disconnected. Their interactions DO NOT read like scum/scum so I'm left with NK being the common link the scum worlds I think can exist and then having one of the other two connected to him, which are both decent partner ships since one of them directly deflected from the other dying (AV) and the other's interactions with NK have been limited almost on purpose (STD).
This segment of posts and some of the larger chunks I spoilered are making me lean aggressive town on LLD.
I did not go over some attacking posts/extremely recent posts here, but they really don't do much to alter my:
CONCLUSION
Townleaning. There are some iffy parts in the entire ISO, but I'm willing to take the risk. My first time actually trying to gamesolve, and my gut is telling me that town!LLD is what we're experiencing right now.
scumsided setups are a myth (and game balancing is a scam)
retired
"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
Anyways, I literally have no time to defend myself currently, so can you at least wait till I'm able to post shit tomorrow? Also, Maybe I revealed CCG because I thought CCG was pretty much easily findable via most of the stuff? also, with them able to get information out, it's way easier. Although, With NK15's actions at the end oh jesus he's gonna flip town oh by jesus he will. FUCK. Well... Better than a Town!Delta and he has the obvious excuse of being killed due to never literally responding to our questions, and chainsawing with flimsy reasons instead of y'know, actually good reasons.
Insert an uncreative signature here. Maybe one day, maybe one day. Well at least it has colour.
Also, KT Shot is not being used against her as an offense, She was using it as a Meta-Defense, which I basically said in my 4 point post and many of my subsequent posts. I also said this, many, many times. I can see Delta being someone that's town and had a shitty day and is normally agressive, but I could also see scum in it, just a lot less now. Anyways, See ya when day 3 starts.
Insert an uncreative signature here. Maybe one day, maybe one day. Well at least it has colour.
Oh to add: If they have a rolecop, they can assume with 50/50 there is a Friendly Neighbour, and if someone randomly pops up with a massive town read on the mainly scumread guy, Don't you think they'd notice? They would kill him on the high chance he was FN, so he didn't clear himself at any point, right? I basically crumbed via saying there was a crumb (Crumbception?) too, so at least one scum probably realised, and just didn't say it here.
Insert an uncreative signature here. Maybe one day, maybe one day. Well at least it has colour.
As there are 2 scum around and we need 3 to lim it's probably best to not vote unless we're sure we want to lim, as scum can come and quickhammer and then win if someone votes for a townie.
