Newbie 2109: Taco Hemingway | Game Over

[Lady Lambdadelta]

My reasoning hasn’t really changed that much, I still feel that STD is the best choice. Obviously no need to rush it, but that’s where I’d be voting.

Arko, NK was with you on the LLD push, can you explain why you switched onto him?

Today you have to name who STD partner is, as part and parcel of this. If you can't name and argue a partner for a player, it's a bad vote.

Who is the STD partner?

[AurorusVox]

Sure. But we have today to figure that out too.

As I said yesterday I can see STD partnering any of you (and gave reasonings for each). That’s partly why I wanted him limmed yesterday, because I can’t exclude him from any possible pairings. In order of likelihood:

LLD
weuler
Arko

But it’s not differentiated by much, so that’s why I’d like to draw conclusions from today.

Would you vote him?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Sure. But we have today to figure that out too.

As I said yesterday I can see STD partnering any of you (and gave reasonings for each). That’s partly why I wanted him limmed yesterday, because I can’t exclude him from any possible pairings. In order of likelihood:

LLD
weuler
Arko

But it’s not differentiated by much, so that’s why I’d like to draw conclusions from today.

Would you vote him?

Well, from my POV you're not an STD partner as proven by this and about a million other things as I mentioned.

Nor is Weu who chained together STD and I almost expecting a town flip on NK.

And Arko... I need to look for Space/STD Arko/STD interactions to decide.

But right now STD lacks reasonable partners to be scum.

[AurorusVox]

I thought weuler had chained you and arko through saying one of you was scum if not nk, and originally said he didn’t see you and STD as the pair (until I raised the possibility)?

[AurorusVox]

(Which itself is pretty sketchy but doesn’t preclude a team with std)

[Weuler]

I thought weuler had chained you and arko through saying one of you was scum if not nk, and originally said he didn’t see you and STD as the pair (until I raised the possibility)?

I initially said that one of CCG, Arko and NK was scum. This was assuming STD/LLD wasn't the scum team, and that you weren't scum partner with STD or LLD.

[AurorusVox]

CCG or LLD? I seem to remember it being the latter. Will go back and check / see why I had that impression.

[AurorusVox]

Okay I was reading in reverse order so these quotes are going backwards:

Summed up thoughts: NK town, then take a look at std/lld pair.

NK scum: STD could be a potential partner. Perhaps also Arko? Just a thought.

@LLD - I see what you meant about linking you and STD to NK town now. I guess the chance that weuler is scum with STD would depend on who he pushes out of you or STD today. If you’re town and he’s scum with STD he only needs to push you today instead of STD and he’d win if successful…

So all that said: does anyone fancy joining me over here in the world where we don’t save the dragons; we slay them?

Perhaps, I have admitted that STD has a sketchy ISO and he definitely should be the prime push D3. Not sure if we stop with the NK wagon though, evidence stacks up against him pretty significantly.

At this point it would surprise me if NK flips green.

If he does however, then I would start looking at the possible scum team STD/LLD. Unless Arko is scum then at that point this is the only reasonable scum team.

Same thing as quote above. Going backwards, it does look like weuler would be more likely to go after you (notice in the next few quotes he doesn’t mention STD but does mention you)

Or perhaps you think getting to scenario 3 is worth the risk? I wouldn't call that avoiding scenario 4 "like the plague" though. If NK15 gets limmed today, delta will remain tomorrow to lim (unless they are nightkilled which seems very unlikely with CCG around)

@weuler this is where you are pushing one of NK/LLD as a pair (obviously this is after CCG is removed due to his FN reveal from arko)

Take a look at 461 to see why I have "removed" AV. (This doesn't mean I don't think they can be scum, the point is that I don't think they are scum together with STD or LLD.)

I think you misunderstand my logic if you are criticising me for removing AV without them postung recently. The point is that through just logic one of {LLD,AV, CCG, Arko, NK} is scum. Possibly there are 2 scum here, but no less than 1. Then I have reduced this set to just contain {CCG, Arko, NK}, see post 461, by looking at posts from d1 essentially. This does not mean that the people that were removed from this set are town, it just means that I strongly believe there is at least one scum in {CCG, Arko, NK}. With your reveal, CCG can be removed.

Yeah so I can see that initially you did focus on those three (CCG, NK, Arko) - but there’s definitely focus on NK/LLD as an exclusionary pair later on.

Oh great CCG is town. From my earlier posts yesterday that makes me quite certain that one of Arko and NK are scum.

Here you make the NK/arko determination (and LLD comes later)

———

@weuler do you believe it could be LLD+Arko or do you think STD is more likely to be a partner to either one of these two?

It’s really interesting reading this iso backwards how Arko seems to fade from the consideration (mentioned as a possible NK-scum partner but almost as a throwaway comment)

[Arko]

Well here begins the grand ol' shitshow. So... I don't have much time today to really post, same as tomorrow, but I still definitely can, so I well will.

So... Why did I vote NK15? Well because: CCG's Iso Analysis, and after being called out on "Scum Behaviour" (Which we know doesn't exist now) Kinda just didn't counter it and ended up even chainsawing me at the end (But I'd already voted and he got hammered right after) I'll say it, I got stupidly lead to vote them out (Even though at many times I'd considered them pretty towny)

So... Today's gonna be a fucking shitshow! We know that. And I'm gonna say it, I've got a pretty specific order today of suspicion, But I'd prefer we can get a moderate amount of discussion before I finalise it, push a bit more, defend myself (Something I know I'm gonna have to do here) and vote the right person. I'm Gonna say it: Aurora is most likely town. The other 3 It's a specific order but like said before, discussion would be nice.

[Weuler]

If AV is scum then well played, scum has essentially won.

[Weuler]

Okay I was reading in reverse order so these quotes are going backwards:

Summed up thoughts: NK town, then take a look at std/lld pair.

NK scum: STD could be a potential partner. Perhaps also Arko? Just a thought.

@LLD - I see what you meant about linking you and STD to NK town now. I guess the chance that weuler is scum with STD would depend on who he pushes out of you or STD today. If you’re town and he’s scum with STD he only needs to push you today instead of STD and he’d win if successful…

So all that said: does anyone fancy joining me over here in the world where we don’t save the dragons; we slay them?

Perhaps, I have admitted that STD has a sketchy ISO and he definitely should be the prime push D3. Not sure if we stop with the NK wagon though, evidence stacks up against him pretty significantly.

At this point it would surprise me if NK flips green.

If he does however, then I would start looking at the possible scum team STD/LLD. Unless Arko is scum then at that point this is the only reasonable scum team.

Same thing as quote above. Going backwards, it does look like weuler would be more likely to go after you (notice in the next few quotes he doesn’t mention STD but does mention you)

Or perhaps you think getting to scenario 3 is worth the risk? I wouldn't call that avoiding scenario 4 "like the plague" though. If NK15 gets limmed today, delta will remain tomorrow to lim (unless they are nightkilled which seems very unlikely with CCG around)

@weuler this is where you are pushing one of NK/LLD as a pair (obviously this is after CCG is removed due to his FN reveal from arko)

Take a look at 461 to see why I have "removed" AV. (This doesn't mean I don't think they can be scum, the point is that I don't think they are scum together with STD or LLD.)

I think you misunderstand my logic if you are criticising me for removing AV without them postung recently. The point is that through just logic one of {LLD,AV, CCG, Arko, NK} is scum. Possibly there are 2 scum here, but no less than 1. Then I have reduced this set to just contain {CCG, Arko, NK}, see post 461, by looking at posts from d1 essentially. This does not mean that the people that were removed from this set are town, it just means that I strongly believe there is at least one scum in {CCG, Arko, NK}. With your reveal, CCG can be removed.

Yeah so I can see that initially you did focus on those three (CCG, NK, Arko) - but there’s definitely focus on NK/LLD as an exclusionary pair later on.

Oh great CCG is town. From my earlier posts yesterday that makes me quite certain that one of Arko and NK are scum.

Here you make the NK/arko determination (and LLD comes later)

———

@weuler do you believe it could be LLD+Arko or do you think STD is more likely to be a partner to either one of these two?

It’s really interesting reading this iso backwards how Arko seems to fade from the consideration (mentioned as a possible NK-scum partner but almost as a throwaway comment)

To clarify: In the post where you say I'm pushing NK/LLD I am really just pointing out that if LLD is not limmed on D2, then they can be limmed D3. I am not saying I will vote them D3, nor that I will not vote them.

Also I am not sure what you mean by "pushing one of NK/LLD as a pair". Do you mean that I am pushing the pair NK/LLD or that I am saying that at least one of them is scum, or that exactly one of them is scum?

[Weuler]

@weuler do you believe it could be LLD+Arko or do you think STD is more likely to be a partner to either one of these two?

It’s really interesting reading this iso backwards how Arko seems to fade from the consideration (mentioned as a possible NK-scum partner but almost as a throwaway comment)

From my recent post about you, you may guess that my d3 will be spent deciding who of STD,LLD and Arko is not scum. I am not ready to exclude any pairing already now.

Regarding Arko's "fading": In a post from d2, pre FN reveal, I mention that looking back, Space's iso is not too bad. However, I say that I don't like Arko because of his weird townreads (CCG, NK). Well it turned out the CCG read wasn't so weird, so this essentially killed my immediate suspicions of Arko.

Regarding the off-hand comment about Arko: i was about to go to bed and saw that LLD had hammered. I wanted to write down my thoughts in the unlikely case that I was limmed instead of CCG. But this was really an "in the moment" thought. I will think more about today (i.e. this irl week)

[Lady Lambdadelta]

If AV is scum then well played, scum has essentially won.

I... I don't know about that.

Right now my top concerning team is You+AV.

Arko is the top town for his behaviour WRT the FN yesterday, leaving STD as the only other option...

and STD doesn't pair well as a partner with either of you two.

So, for me, If Arko isn't scum, it HAS to be you two because STD shares minimal equity with either of you.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And the pushes here where you say stuff like "if AV is scum, GG" only solidify this concern for me.

[AurorusVox]

First point: okay if that’s the clarification, it didn’t necessarily come across that way. It sounded to me that you were only really interested in going after LLD if NK flipped town (your scum partners for NK were STD/arko), and so you’d be saying “if not NK then LLD” and when you read back your post about LLD being around today, it makes it sound like you’d be pushing her (This could be as a result of me reading through the iso backwards though)

That’s what I meant by exclusionary pairs (“one of these two is scum”) and the idea that you’d go after LLD first.

You also earlier said one of NK/arko so I’m interested as to where the LLD/STD possibility fits into that? Because the two reads linked to NK seem to contradict what you said at the end of the day here:

Looking at Space's iso I don't see Arko slot being scum with LLD or STD.

———

Pedit: okay, I see, everything is up in the air and you can now see any combo or arko/STD/LLD.

Personally I don’t see arko/LLD

And based on your own end of day comments you don’t see arko with either LLD or STD - so is that no longer the case? What’s caused that change? That’s why I asked what I did - because you’re only really leaving yourself with pushing STD/LLD or me/arko with your end of day comments. And now it could be any two of those three? I’m trying to figure out if this is opportunistic/keeping options open, or a genuine change of heart based on the NK flip.

———

Funnily enough LLD this little exchange is making me revise whether you or weuler is the most likely partner for STD.

Factors for weuler-STD: std vote on weuler when it would never happen; weuler linking you and arko to an NK townflip, but linking std to an NK scumflip, and also pairing you as scum with std but putting more focus onto your slot

Factors for you-STD is mostly based on wayward son and Fred antics that I’ve gone over before

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Well here begins the grand ol' shitshow. So... I don't have much time today to really post, same as tomorrow, but I still definitely can, so I well will.

So... Why did I vote NK15? Well because: CCG's Iso Analysis, and after being called out on "Scum Behaviour" (Which we know doesn't exist now) Kinda just didn't counter it and ended up even chainsawing me at the end (But I'd already voted and he got hammered right after) I'll say it, I got stupidly lead to vote them out (Even though at many times I'd considered them pretty towny)

So... Today's gonna be a fucking shitshow! We know that. And I'm gonna say it, I've got a pretty specific order today of suspicion, But I'd prefer we can get a moderate amount of discussion before I finalise it, push a bit more, defend myself (Something I know I'm gonna have to do here) and vote the right person. I'm Gonna say it: Aurora is most likely town. The other 3 It's a specific order but like said before, discussion would be nice.

You're my single top town so it's a little heartbreaking to hear you argue that someone who has so much equity to be scum here is the person you think is the most town.

Seriously, ignore individual reads for a moment. They're important, but we've eliminated 2 townies where I've been the counter wagon each day so it's clear there's some amount of effort put into how the days have played out.

What partnerships can exist?

So, you know you're town, and so I'll remove you.

LLD/STD
LLD/Weu
LLD/AV
STD/Weu
STD/AV
AV/Weu

This is the remaining 6 pairings, correct?

So I want you to walk through each one, consider if the way they and their predecessors have played gels as a possible team composition and then come back to me with which pairings you think are most likely.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

First point: okay if that’s the clarification, it didn’t necessarily come across that way. It sounded to me that you were only really interested in going after LLD if NK flipped town (your scum partners for NK were STD/arko), and so you’d be saying “if not NK then LLD” and when you read back your post about LLD being around today, it makes it sound like you’d be pushing her (This could be as a result of me reading through the iso backwards though)

That’s what I meant by exclusionary pairs (“one of these two is scum”) and the idea that you’d go after LLD first.

You also earlier said one of NK/arko so I’m interested as to where the LLD/STD possibility fits into that? Because the two reads linked to NK seem to contradict what you said at the end of the day here:

Looking at Space's iso I don't see Arko slot being scum with LLD or STD.

———

Pedit: okay, I see, everything is up in the air and you can now see any combo or arko/STD/LLD.

Personally I don’t see arko/LLD

And based on your own end of day comments you don’t see arko with either LLD or STD - so is that no longer the case? What’s caused that change? That’s why I asked what I did - because you’re only really leaving yourself with pushing STD/LLD or me/arko with your end of day comments. And now it could be any two of those three? I’m trying to figure out if this is opportunistic/keeping options open, or a genuine change of heart based on the NK flip.

———

Funnily enough LLD this little exchange is making me revise whether you or weuler is the most likely partner for STD.

Factors for weuler-STD: std vote on weuler when it would never happen; weuler linking you and arko to an NK townflip, but linking std to an NK scumflip, and also pairing you as scum with std but putting more focus onto your slot

Factors for you-STD is mostly based on wayward son and Fred antics that I’ve gone over before

Revise whatever you feel like.

It sounds to me like you're locked in on voting STD today, is that the case?

[DkKoba]

Votecount 3.1

Café Belga - Taco Hemingway

Not Voting

(5): Weuler, Arko, Save The Dragons, Lady Lambdadelta, AurorusVox

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline ends in: (expired on 2023-02-08 00:46:11).

[AurorusVox]

I would never say I’m locked in to anything. If that were the case and I was that certain then I may as well have voted by now because if I’m wrong then I’d lose the game for town by voting for him eventually.

However, I have a strong preference for eliminating std today as I feel that STD-LLD and STD-weuler are *way* more likely than LLD-arko, and also more likely than LLD-weuler, STD-arko or arko-weuler.

———

The one that gives me cause for concern is arko-weuler. I think arko is probably town based on his interactions with you (though his interactions with NK were a little suspect), so this is not a super likely scenario imo, but it is the one that gives me the most paranoia.

I discounted this pair initially because of weuler’s NK/arko “one is scum” line (why would scum!weuler link his scum buddy to a town flip he’d have known was coming?) but as I said, it’s interesting to see that line of enquiry fade from weuler’s posts. Especially given what I said in my previous post - he’d have to see the pair as either LLD/STD or me/arko according to his end of day read. Now that he firmly townreads me, and given his previous statement, does that mean he townreads arko by association, and now has to go after you or std? If weuler is scum then this is a perfect opportunity to direct away from a hypothetical arko scumbuddy.

However, it seems that weuler is either forgetting or planning on revisiting his previous determination that arko doesn’t make a good partner for you or std, so it’s all a bit up in the air on that front. The scenario that he’s scum with STD can go partway to explaining that though: he’s keeping the opportunity open to go against town!arko while maintaining the possibility of going after town!LLD (I’d argue that it’s not as likely that you’re the weuler-partner here based on comments from weuler about your slot yesterday)

Either way I need to see where weuler puts pressure today, and THAT is why I’m not locked in.

More content in posts from STD would also help but not sure we’ll get much there tbh so I’m not holding out hope.

———

You also said that Arko was your one top townread. That sounds like you’re open to the possibility of scum!STD; but you’ve also discounted him as having no viable partner. Why could he not partner weuler?

[Weuler]

Looking at Space's iso I don't see Arko slot being scum with LLD or STD.

Funny, I don't recall writing that post. Looking back it was apparently my last post d2. I guess I will follow my own advice and take a look at Space's iso and see if "sleepy me" had reliable conclusions.

[Weuler]

And based on your own end of day comments you don’t see arko with either LLD or STD - so is that no longer the case? What’s caused that change? That’s why I asked what I did - because you’re only really leaving yourself with pushing STD/LLD or me/arko with your end of day comments. And now it could be any two of those three? I’m trying to figure out if this is opportunistic/keeping options open, or a genuine change of heart based on the NK flip.

To summarise some of my thought processes last day.

I initially said one of NK, Arko is town. Then my case for scumreading Arko was demolished, so I naturally turned to NK who I found quite scummy. With this thinking, an NK town flip should naturally lead to Arko coming under suspicion again, but this was not what happened. At the end of the day my Arko suspicions were low, and then you mentioned the possibility of an STD/LLD pair, which made me seriously consider this possibility, because such a pair would undermine my reasoning for one of CCG, Arko, NK being scum in the first place. I also find both STD and LLD more scummy than Arko right now, but this needs to be carefully studied.

[Weuler]

If AV is scum then well played, scum has essentially won.

I... I don't know about that.

Right now my top concerning team is You+AV.

Arko is the top town for his behaviour WRT the FN yesterday, leaving STD as the only other option...

and STD doesn't pair well as a partner with either of you two.

So, for me, If Arko isn't scum, it HAS to be you two because STD shares minimal equity with either of you.

Well AV is my top town read. Turns out AV is also Arko's top town, hence my post. Personally I just cannot see myself voting Arko with the other scummy people around.

Consider my post about AV as a cry for help. If you scumread AV then please share your concerns, because right now they seem like the towniest town to me.

[Weuler]

If AV is scum then well played, scum has essentially won.

I... I don't know about that.

Right now my top concerning team is You+AV.

Arko is the top town for his behaviour WRT the FN yesterday, leaving STD as the only other option...

and STD doesn't pair well as a partner with either of you two.

So, for me, If Arko isn't scum, it HAS to be you two because STD shares minimal equity with either of you.

Funnily enough, if I follow your reasoning I arrive at you being scum.

[AurorusVox]

LLD thinks I’m scum with you, weuler.

For some reason she doesn’t think STD or arko could be your partner.

@LLD what do you make of weuler following near-enough the exact same strategy I outlined scum!weuler would do if they were partnered with arko?

If weuler is not scum with one of STD or arko then my only conclusion is that you are scum, LLD; either with weuler himself or with STD

[Weuler]

LLD thinks I’m scum with you, weuler.

Yes I know, but in their reasoning they exclude all scum pairs not containing LLD or me. Now I know I am town, so by their reasoning applied by me it is LLD that is scum. Now I haven't looked close enough to say that the reasonong is sound.