Open 871 - The Haunted Village | Postgame

[Maki Harukawa]

@MOD

V/la for the next 4 days, recovering from an injury

[Maki Harukawa]

Sorry for the late entrance, I'll get to reading up.

[Maki Harukawa]

Spoiler: 1-3

Now, I don’t really put in much thought into RVS style posts, but the entire first page by Gimli feels like it’s coming from a villager. The want to townread people 22 23 feels real. Plus, if you’re drunk at a party I doubt you wanna post as a wolf, come on now.

Small town points to furtiveglance for 30 the blunt style of the post makes me like it and I want to assume they just, wouldn’t make it as a wolf.

Curious as to why Save was so defensive to Kokichi’s wolfread with: 38 it’s like making the assumption that Kokichi is a villager already but, I’m sure the answer to this will be carried on.

Bianco’s post 48 is a lot of nothing to basically say a rvs vote is “I don’t know” /very unsure. Could be a playstyle choice but it reads wolfy. I see Saihara agrees with me on this, so + town points to them.

Oddly enough, I dislike Kirigiri’s response. 50 It feels quite overblown for a post that quite frankly, isn’t as bad as they’re making it out to be. A weak post with holes in it? Yes, that much is obvious but the hard pressure here is quite strange.

Read if you like, this is mostly just for me.

[Maki Harukawa]

Spoiler: Page 4-7

Not much really happens on page four besides countless bickering that can really be solved in just one big post, throwing my own two cents in the mix would mostly be saying being "incorrect" is never really Ai unless it's an extreme case, but how you got to your answer. Considering the back and fourth given, Kyoko is being nitpicky, yes but is that wolfy in and of itself? No, they're sticking to the wolfread despite clear pushback. I'm curious why Save called Kaito town for post 88 I assume, it's a peacekeeper kind of post that I see mostly come from wolves. Now, I'm not saying that's what he did but the post is Null to wolfy at best to me.

Even on page five this conversation has dragged on too long, it feels like more trying to prove points/build a case for yourself vs trying to find mafia. I do like Gimli's random vote, 113We probably putting too much stock into it but it breaks the thread a little.

Wednesday's response is bad,118 not pretty bad, just bad. The level of confidence doesn't match the vote and seems pretty much like an overreaction to something that, to be honest wasn't even that good of an outlook. If I was to vote right now, it would be on this slot. Reading on, it does seem more like the confidence is a personality thing judging by 127 but the kneejerk reaction still makes me want to vote here.

145 by Kuzu is meh, an orange lean they're just not bringing anything impressive to the table and I would expect something more, an also decent place to be voting. 149 is doing something, this is progress hopefully it gets better. Kuzu/Kaito aren't W/W.

The pressure on Save is weird, but I don't see reasons behind it so I'd love some.

Talk about busywork.
VOTE: Wednesday

[Maki Harukawa]

179 180 181 all strike me as a huffy villager, I don't really care much for the content (or lack of) from Save but from a pure toneread he seems like a villager to me.


Probably changing my vote to Kuzuryu for 178 since I can see both their main pushes being a villager. I want to see where this goes for my own curiosity reasons.

Kokichi is being...Kokichi. How annoying, whatever. I don't need to read that right now anyway.

I can already tell who Wed is and it doesn't really change my outlook on them, much.

VOTE: Kuzu

[Maki Harukawa]

Different maki energy from last game

Shoe on other foot? Wedsnesday vote not bad though

You should know my energy changes depending on how I feel, I'm just...tired and a bit sore right now. But, that doesn't really matter much right now does it?

[Maki Harukawa]

Oh, for the lazy people who don't wanna click spoilers:

Gimli
furtiveglance
Saihara Shuichi

biancospino
Save The Dragons

Not_Mafia
Kokichi Oma
PenguinPower

Kaito Momota
Kyoko Kirigiri

Fuyuhiko Kuzuryu
Wednesday Addams

[Maki Harukawa]

It's okay, being around someone like me would normally get you in trouble. It's best to stay away, I prefer to be alone anyway.

You go ahead and solve the cases. But, I suggest starting with a look at the so called "baby gangsta"

[Maki Harukawa]

Would you believe me if I said I was reaction testing you to see if it really was who I thought it was?

[Maki Harukawa]

You can wolfread me if you'd like, it isn't wise to trust an assassin after all.

I do think Kuzu is a pretty big wolf though.

[Maki Harukawa]

Kuzu is looking for reasons to wolfread people over really believing anything they're pushing. It's like throwing something at a dartboard and praying someone will cling on. It's pretty obvious scrambling. But, I don't really feel the need to convince anyone on this. I'm keeping an eye on Kiri, given their personality I expect them to have some strong opinions, and if they just take a backseat I'll be raising an eyebrow at that.

[Maki Harukawa]

You guys sure do fight a lot. Do I have to solve everything for you?

[Maki Harukawa]

But isn't putting people on the spot to see what sticks, a good way to solve the mysteries?

I actually find it quite fascinating how someone can see the same thing I see and get a completely opposite impression than me about that action or reaction. This further proves that no action or reaction is inherently towny or scummy and only if you see the whole sequence of them, you can draw conclusions about the motivations.

What do you mean exactly about my personality btw?

Let's start with this, putting people on the spot to see what sticks, in the way you're wording it in and of itself is fine. But, you're not looking at it in a proper way. Kuzu is trying to see what sticks, but not in a way of just pushing something for the sake of it to get attention on a slot. What they're doing is pushing Wednesday and Fur, trying to call them wolves and push them over. It's two very different lines of play, and when you look at Kuzu's posting, I don't see someone who believes in what they're pushing.

Kuzu seems to just react to things around them and make up something on the spot or adjust their way of thinking vs having a thought out read and thinking they're really scum. Reactive playstyle is fine, but if you look at what they're presenting for logic, it doesn't add up in the slightest. It's a made up worldview.

You've already proven you're pretty gung ho with your logic, when you have a theory, or a suspicion you cling to it and show no mercy to your opponent, as a wolf, that would take some level of talent to keep up considering you would know your convictions are incorrect, and the more people you push the worse it would look for you. I'm saying if you ever take a backseat, it'd look off.

You can look at that as some dirty assassin trick to get you to push people more, but that's just how I see it.

[Maki Harukawa]

Yes

You're a lot of work. Do something yourself. Lazy villagers...

[Maki Harukawa]

If you need reasons for why I think Wed is town that isn't just they're unlikely to be a wolf with Kuzu, I think how they reacted to my test was good, they know who I am and I know them, with that line of logic in their head, knowing my personality and playstyle it'd take a lot for them to have this much confidence and swing in their posting that I've never seen from them before as a wolf, you can call this meta but even in just a normal game like this you have to look at those posts and question if you think this tone really comes from a wolf with the emotion that they know they're wrong. I don't see it.

[Maki Harukawa]

- 0.75 Saihara

+0.6 Furt

+ 0.2 Oma

[Maki Harukawa]

No teamwork or attempt to reach a middle ground, you people are so stubborn. What an annoying mess to deal with, it's like you're not even trying. I'd be pretty shocked if Gimi/Furt/Wed were wolves, if you wish to disprove me of that, it's on you.

[Maki Harukawa]

What’s this mean exactly?

Don't worry, I was just making a joke. Guess I'm not that good at it.

[Maki Harukawa]

No teamwork or attempt to reach a middle ground, you people are so stubborn. What an annoying mess to deal with, it's like you're not even trying. I'd be pretty shocked if Gimi/Furt/Wed were wolves, if you wish to disprove me of that, it's on you.

Why does Kaito vaguely scumread you and why does Kaito always vaguely scumread you

Would you trust an assassin with your life? I know I wouldn't. It's understandable, and expected.

[Maki Harukawa]

No teamwork or attempt to reach a middle ground, you people are so stubborn. What an annoying mess to deal with, it's like you're not even trying. I'd be pretty shocked if Gimi/Furt/Wed were wolves, if you wish to disprove me of that, it's on you.

wouldn't you say you might be the stubborn one if you're not going to consider the reads against those slots? XD

Instead of seizing on one viewpoint, the truth is uncovered by analyzing things from every angle. It's good that we're pushing from different angles. Each person needs to come to their own conclusions so that everyone can have confidence in the outcome.

I'm inviting you to prove me wrong, isn't that what you want? I have a strong townread on all the people in question, and if you want me to vote them then tell me why I'm doing so incorrectly. It goes without saying I've looked at every person in two lights.

Everyone has there own viewpoint, but if you let things go down to compromise, having a team of three working together is going to lead to a bad outcome. Unless, you think the main talking points today have been on all wolves? That seems highly unlikely.

[Maki Harukawa]

No teamwork or attempt to reach a middle ground, you people are so stubborn. What an annoying mess to deal with, it's like you're not even trying. I'd be pretty shocked if Gimi/Furt/Wed were wolves, if you wish to disprove me of that, it's on you.

wouldn't you say you might be the stubborn one if you're not going to consider the reads against those slots? XD

Instead of seizing on one viewpoint, the truth is uncovered by analyzing things from every angle. It's good that we're pushing from different angles. Each person needs to come to their own conclusions so that everyone can have confidence in the outcome.

I'm inviting you to prove me wrong, isn't that what you want? I have a strong townread on all the people in question, and if you want me to vote them then tell me why I'm doing so incorrectly. It goes without saying I've looked at every person in two lights.

Everyone has there own viewpoint, but if you let things go down to compromise, having a team of three working together is going to lead to a bad outcome. Unless, you think the main talking points today have been on all wolves? That seems highly unlikely.

Of course, I don't.

I really think the reasons mentioned by people for town reads on Wednesday besides yours which was meta-based are flawed. I can't share your read in this instance as I don't have the meta nor I can verify it.

I'm just saying, I'm open to changing my mind and I wonder if you are too if stronger evidence is presented later that is convicting these people. Just that.

If Wednesday becomes more a wagon, I might go into more detail on my read, but right now I don't really see a reason to do so. Your level of thinking and dissecting a point of view is very methodical. While that has it's own strength, it has glaring downsides as well. Quite frankly, me proving you they're town isn't at the top of my list.

Considering a lot of the main topic for votes is one person we both townread and scumread respectively, that seems like the more pressing topic, wouldn't you agree? Although, I don't know if I should keep talking about Kuzu, it seems like beating a dead horse.

[Maki Harukawa]

I'm gonna bold some stuff there.

Look at the first bold sentence. It comes more likely from an informed point of view as it has phrases like "It makes no sense" "while I appreciate that Kuzu" and "he did make a bigger deal than necessary"

Now why these suggest he has informed point of view? Someone who is figuring things out, would not be analyzing the percentage of something making sense or not cause they should be uncertain of everything. I might be failing in explaining what I mean here but,

him appreciating kuzu suggests he actually has an idea what alignment kuzu is and whats his actual objective when he does his stuff and that he is not analyzing the action itself but is judging the action based on his knowledge about kuzu's alignment.

And again on next sentence, he is saying the reason kuzo was using would make more sense if he was using it to push gimli than Wednesday - not that it doesn't make sense to push Wednesday with. so he is rating kuzus push based on his knowledge about kuzus motivation (cause it seems he already knows about it)

"It did paint the picture" and "should not be considered TvT". How is kuzo's push on Wednesday means gimli/wedsnday are not TvT? it means kuzo finds at least one of the pair scummy but it doesn't paints the picture for the entire thread. again he is talking about kuzos objective as he is seeing it through an informed lense.

So I find that post and his jump (with the flow of game against kuzo) extremely sus and opportunistic and I find his positioning when doing this alarming.

I assume you mean this. For me, the reason your post doesn't make me jump and call the slot scum doesn't even have anything to do with the fact I have bianco as a slight townread, it's more I don't see the part of this that is so damning, and maybe that's on me. Let me expalin.

To fit the worldview that you're presenting here, bianco is a wolf that knows Kuzu is a villager, but given how bianco, has played this game so far I don't see why the posts in question has such shock value.

The blue for example, is hard to fully get because trying to differentiate, talking to someone you wolfread as if they're a villager (a common thing people wolfread that is outright not wolfy) and them being informed is two different things.

The next point, pushing on Kuzu's motives, right? I feel like he's been pretty blatant on his motives and what they are. So I can see where that is coming from on both sides, it's a sound answer from bianco but it's NAI. I think the most questionable part you can really talk about, is the angle they're taking to vote kuzu and finding a reason to do so when they're the next biggest wagon, but that hasn't even come up in conversation.

Sure, it is briefly touched on in the last sentence, but it feels like you're putting a lot of stock value into one angle when the second angle can easily be explained away. And the first angle would require a pretty detailed level of thought and skill to execute, to reach a not so flattering result.

[Maki Harukawa]

Perhaps, maybe I just expect better when I should be thinking of the basics. I wouldn't kick and scream if the slot went over, so you won't hear me complain. It'd certainly open a few angles I haven't seen.

So, carry on.

[Maki Harukawa]

Guess I was wrong, can't say I'm upset about the result though.

[Maki Harukawa]

At first glance, I would think the partner would be either off wagon or an early voter. Voting late, when you have NM someone who is an obvious vig target as your second partner really doesn't do much. Assuming the wolf knew this, bussing for cred or trying to save your partner would be the way to go.

[Maki Harukawa]

You guys are on the right track, so my opinion on the matter isn't needed. Can't say I'm surpurised the bumbling buffoon is getting wagoned though.

[Maki Harukawa]

I also think we should not just focus on bianco's associatives and give actual reasons why people are scummy or not.

Do you think anyone on the wagon doesn't look like a partner with bianco? Because using your own logic we'd just be stuck at square one again.

[Maki Harukawa]

Reading is hard, I understand. Speed voting isn't good, I could've easily just told you my interactions with the wolves are obviously not WvW but, a green check is a green check.

[Maki Harukawa]

The protective can just go on the cop right? A rather easy answer.

[Maki Harukawa]

Wouldn't that be game throwing if he's a wolf? Because he'd know the points don't add up.

[Maki Harukawa]

Whatever, not like I really care. If people want to mass claim go at it.

[Maki Harukawa]

Considering I'm already clear from Kuzu, I suppose me outting doesn't matter.

I'm claiming PR.

[Maki Harukawa]

He's not someone I can really doubt, so I'll bow out of this one.

[Maki Harukawa]

So scum openly took a goon? Bold.
Not understanding why PP is wolfy besides the fact he’s just being a sassy Penguin

[Maki Harukawa]

If you’re curious I’m not lying mafia know my role already but I’m enchantress 1 point pr

[Maki Harukawa]

I suppose the correct play was to just let Kaito use another part of his role as I make him unblockable, but I think that's hindsight.

[Maki Harukawa]

If you’re curious I’m not lying mafia know my role already but I’m enchantress 1 point pr

That's nice but can you help solve this. what are your thoughts

I'm at you Kyoko Wed Gimi villagers.

[Maki Harukawa]

If the wolf is not in Save/Furt/Penguin I'm snowed.

[Maki Harukawa]

it felt like highschool in a way

I had a grade 4 teacher who forgot he wasn’t in the army anymore and ranked his students and we had to respond everytime he addressed us as “sir, yes sir!”. He eventually got fired for extremely mildly whacking students across the wrists for forgetting the first “sir” with a ruler. I don’t think I ever made it past buck private until one day he promoted me to either private or corporal. Tragically, he was absent from the yearbook. I was sad.

omg I had this exact same teacher! a geometry teacher who would punish students with a big wooden ruler. scary dude. I once forgot my compass and tried hiding under my desk cause he scared me. he just stood in front of my desk and said 'sit proper' and I sat and he didn't say anything lol.

he'd also give the most random grades. it goes 0-10 and no matter how good you were he'd just give you a 9.87 or something.

I think the worst teacher I had would be this english teacher in my first year of high school, was super nice the first day we get to rolecall goes down the list all smiles, and suddenly her face shifts to one of disgust as she gets to mine and calls my full name. I nod, and she asks "Your mother wouldn't have to be (my mother)" and I say yes.

She then spends three minutes talking about how she taught my mother and how she was nothing but trouble. That entire school year if I so much as sneezed wrong she would make me do extra work.

[Maki Harukawa]

I'll read up soon, finally not being in a snowstorm is nice

[Maki Harukawa]

Okay, let's get this started. If anyone wants to ask live questions I'll be here, otherwise I'm gonna work on a reads list with reasons.

[Maki Harukawa]

anime sux

[Maki Harukawa]

My old post got deleted haha but, Kyoko and Kokichi I doubt need much explanation but to be clear:

Kyoko

would have to basically be playing for endgame since the start of the game since they had every chance to let off the gas on their partner and never did, combine that with the anger over my PR claim, that simply seems hard to fake and quite frankly unneeded.

Next, we have

Kokichi

: Now, it has been ages since I've played with Kokichi, but I think the way they've mostly just been playing to their own beat is very towny, at least for them. Considering the whole meta faking ideal, and the way they openly tried to "bus" early. Along with their tunnel on Save, who they would know is a villager and prob get them exe'd if incorrect, yeah I think he's fine.

Wednesday

without talking about meta out of respect for her wishes, is quite frankly obvious town off meta alone but if you take that out of the mix just look at how they've handled most of their pushes, sure they would be on villagers but it's hard to fake the level of convection that they've posted in this game. I think they're just a villager and really putting out the energy to try and solve.

We could end there and say we have our villagers and move on, but let me talk about the other four.

Gimli

is someone I've seen before as a villager and while I have not seen their wolf game, it just seems to fit into what I would expect from them. There aren't a lot of hard town pings, but what they've shown especially on day 1 with how they kept driving home their reasons. I will say there vote on the D1 wagon is odd, and even off. But, if someone wants to explain to me the wolf Gimli world I won't kick and scream here.

Penguin

is who I don't understand the most on why they're catching so much heat, they basically would've had to AFK on their partner the one who would be trying the most out of the three in that mafia group and then come into the next few days saying "lol who cares" like if Penguin's mafia he's not trying and gave up. He'd have had to play so

bad

that it's nearly throwing and I just don't see that being the case? I'm just one person, and I understand being out voted here, but that's my opinion.

[Maki Harukawa]

Save is going over so there's no need to talk about that slot, but I sign off on it so yeah.

That leaves furtiveglance who I suppose I would go next, but its' hard I think they had moments of nice innocence in their posting but compared to everyone else I don't see how their iso really stacks up. I understand furtive is ML bait, as I've found them before but the fact I can't here is the most telling.

So, if it was me I'd go Save>furtiveglance>Gimli

[Maki Harukawa]

In the games I've seen you that's all that's happened to you.

[Maki Harukawa]

VOTE: Furtive