Open 873: PYP: Anime Music & Memes - Game Over!

[Firebringer]

I have very low expectations FB.
I have never seen you effort.

thats definitely not true but its good you keep ur expectations low.

[Bell]

I've seen you effort?

[Firebringer]

name a game u think i didn't effort

[Firebringer]

actually don't this doesn't matter

[Bell]

Dragonball.
Hxh
guns and roses.

[Bell]

Well, of course it doesn't matter.
Nothing does, silly dog.

[petapan]

i find it kind of weird how little a response me immediately hip-checking rh9 out of the game got

on peux pas parler des replacements.

so i'm not wholy sure what you want us to talk about here. Again, 3 people last night discussed murdering Firebringer.

my reading comprehension is pretty bad today it seems

[petapan]

i am sort of back. really tired

2 things:
1) marcistar avatar is horrifying

2) I haven't read anything. Someone give me a tldr or what is important to read or something.

i dunno what's actually important

marcistar got run up and claimed tracker and there's significant resistance to flipping her even though the most she gives is a handful of sporadic one liners with befuddling reasoning, at this point she's either scum or a strategic miselim being saved by scum and the defense of her is almost certainly scum motivated

dunnstral and save the dragons are tunneling each other

that's about it

[petapan]

FF is town pinging me slightly. I'm being cautious, but they just keep going in the right direction to me.

i have to say that while i appreciate that she's here and defending me, i have not actually seen anything that instills confidence in me that she is town

[Dunnstral]

I really felt like Lukewarm was town and ffery's posts seem reasonable to me

[fferyllt]

i am sort of back. really tired

2 things:
1) marcistar avatar is horrifying

2) I haven't read anything. Someone give me a tldr or what is important to read or something.

i dunno what's actually important

marcistar got run up and claimed tracker and there's significant resistance to flipping her even though the most she gives is a handful of sporadic one liners with befuddling reasoning, at this point she's either scum or a strategic miselim being saved by scum and the defense of her is almost certainly scum motivated

dunnstral and save the dragons are tunneling each other

that's about it

Who do you feel is defending marci?

[petapan]

Who do you feel is defending marci?

save the dragns, greyice, lld, unwnd, either directly or indirectly

in the world where she's town there's almost certainly scum in that group

i don't read the game that way currently but it's a contingency because i've seen that type of tactic plenty of times

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Who do you feel is defending marci?

save the dragns, greyice, lld, unwnd, either directly or indirectly

in the world where she's town there's almost certainly scum in that group

i don't read the game that way currently but it's a contingency because i've seen that type of tactic plenty of times

I'm sorry your logic is "if the claimed tracker actually is town, the people who are letting her live to obtain results and let the claim resolve itself because Marci Will Not Live To Endgame Anyway" are scum?

I get the whole keeping a townie alive as scum to look better tactic but this is a little beyond the pale.

You also just grabbed a list of 4 names from within a game of 12 players, no 11 because in this conditional Marci is town.

If you select 4 random names within 11 players in a game that contains 3 scum, do you know what the odds you name 1 scum in that grouping are? Should we do the probability tree together?

[fferyllt]

I had to reread unwnd. he's gone back and forth a few times on Marci, but is currently sitting on a townread. I think the rest of them it could be called indirect support, or just willingness to see what happens for a bit. unwnd's fluidity on his read of her is a goodish look. There's, if you'll pardon the expression, decent trajectory.

I've kinda wanted to subcontract Luke's marci read, but I'm not feeling it as much after being in realtime.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I just did the probability tree on a note pad assuming my math isn't wrong, ftr, it's about a 79% chance you hit at least one scum within any group of 4 players you name while there are 11 players remaining assuming 3 scum are within the game.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

My point is that your statement is effectively toothless and without any real weight, peta. Not only is is a mathematically useless statement, it also logically doesn't hold a lot of water because the situation is different than the one you're imagining, I suspect.

[petapan]

i said what i said. it's not about keeping a townie alive to look better but the fact that marci if town is basically playing in a way that is negative utility such that her being around is in scum's best interests because she's never going to actually catch scum and will never clear herself and so is a useful misvote down the line either way. i think there's been plenty of discussion about how a claimed tracker is not actually that valuable with multiple scum alive and given scum were likely cop hunting they clearly have bigger targets to go after

so do you dislike the insinuation you wouldn't take marci as a free elimination if scum? because realistically i don't think anyone NKs her here

maybe it's not useful analysis but i felt like discussing the thought as a contingency because i don't want to go yep this is the world we're living in 100% and i won't consider alternatives where i'm wrong

as it is i still think the most likely answer is she's just scum and town are being silly

[petapan]

My point is that your statement is effectively toothless and without any real weight, peta. Not only is is a mathematically useless statement, it also logically doesn't hold a lot of water because the situation is different than the one you're imagining, I suspect.

i guess

i didn't really intend it as anything more than off the cuff speculation i spent about 3 minutes thinking about after seeing ffery's post

[Lady Lambdadelta]

i said what i said. it's not about keeping a townie alive to look better but the fact that marci if town is basically playing in a way that is negative utility such that her being around is in scum's best interests because she's never going to actually catch scum and will never clear herself and so is a useful misvote down the line either way. i think there's been plenty of discussion about how a claimed tracker is not actually that valuable with multiple scum alive and given scum were likely cop hunting they clearly have bigger targets to go after

so do you dislike the insinuation you wouldn't take marci as a free elimination if scum? because realistically i don't think anyone NKs her here

maybe it's not useful analysis but i felt like discussing the thought as a contingency because i don't want to go yep this is the world we're living in 100% and i won't consider alternatives where i'm wrong

as it is i still think the most likely answer is she's just scum and town are being silly

Yes I heavily dislike the insinuation that scum don't take the easy elimination on a townie if she's town and prevent a heavy power role from flipping that they need to be scared of. Like, one of the main info roles.

I think the analysis is weird and wrong and strangely names a handful of players who I would describe as "harder than average to kill, but susceptible to paranoia for death later on" which makes my eyebrow raise.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

My point is that your statement is effectively toothless and without any real weight, peta. Not only is is a mathematically useless statement, it also logically doesn't hold a lot of water because the situation is different than the one you're imagining, I suspect.

i guess

i didn't really intend it as anything more than off the cuff speculation i spent about 3 minutes thinking about after seeing ffery's post

I mean, sure.

But as much as it's off the cuff for you you have a presence that leads people to take your statements with a lot of authority.

So... I felt it best to inject a little clarity onto it.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Maybe I came off too aggressive.

[petapan]

Yes I heavily dislike the insinuation that scum don't take the easy elimination on a townie if she's town and prevent a heavy power role from flipping that they need to be scared of. Like, one of the main info roles.

I think the analysis is weird and wrong and strangely names a handful of players who I would describe as "harder than average to kill, but susceptible to paranoia for death later on" which makes my eyebrow raise.

i've seen it multiple times where scum divert attention away from a lightning rod townie to push other eliminations because they know that play is an easy kill. seen it and done it myself. there are certain players where you just know they're never gonna start actually playing.

you may find the insinuation you'd play that way to be egregious and that's fair to argue. maybe that's a sign of townie entitlement. i'm not pushing you now nor do i plan to push you but i think the idea i tip my cards like this as scum is pretty silly, the only reason i have to discuss this possibility at all is to bring it up in the event i'm not alive in a future day.

[petapan]

But as much as it's off the cuff for you you have a presence that leads people to take your statements with a lot of authority.

So... I felt it best to inject a little clarity onto it.

lol nothing i say this game is getting taken with authority but i appreciate the reality check

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Yes I heavily dislike the insinuation that scum don't take the easy elimination on a townie if she's town and prevent a heavy power role from flipping that they need to be scared of. Like, one of the main info roles.

I think the analysis is weird and wrong and strangely names a handful of players who I would describe as "harder than average to kill, but susceptible to paranoia for death later on" which makes my eyebrow raise.

i've seen it multiple times where scum divert attention away from a lightning rod townie to push other eliminations because they know that play is an easy kill. seen it and done it myself. there are certain players where you just know they're never gonna start actually playing.

you may find the insinuation you'd play that way to be egregious and that's fair to argue. maybe that's a sign of townie entitlement. i'm not pushing you now nor do i plan to push you but i think the idea i tip my cards like this as scum is pretty silly, the only reason i have to discuss this possibility at all is to bring it up in the event i'm not alive in a future day.

Welllll, I could see you doing this knowing you'd be alive on a later day for cognitive consistency when you flip on someone but

I do think you're town so a Last Will makes sense too

[petapan]

i guess if i can lay my cards on the table, so to speak

i do think you're town but the world where you're scum scares me more than other worlds because i know you'd draft strategically where certain other team combinations are more likely to make less optimal choices