Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[Weuler]

Freedom/HS: HS townread Human and Black, cast suspicion on Aureal, Elements, and me then disappeared. Not sure how to interpret that. I expected a bit more from HS's successor, and I hope they provide some more of their thoughts soon.

Well I can't say this has happened

[Weuler]

@Elements, Freedom's and STD's iso gives me similar vibes. I note that in my earlier games, the two scum players have given off quite different vibes

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: elements

[Elements]

VOTE: elements

This is funny

[Save The Dragons]

Is it?

[Elements]

Yes, you were on Weuler for all of 4 hours

[Save The Dragons]

I changed my mind

[Elements]

What made you change your mind

[usesPython]

Right, back from V/LA. Gonna start answering the following messages:
630 - Why I consider STD and Elements to be scumhunting
646/661/705/713/717 - Further insight into my playstyle and why I think Arko is a bad enough d1 elim (Note: specifically d1 elim, not eliming in general) to argue against it
706/709/710 - Partial logical contradiction

716 - Freedom not being caught up yet

Starting with the fastest:

I feel like Python was giving Freedom a pass too though for not having caught up reading yet. It's been four days now.

What's a pfp? Guessing not personal financial planner.

pfp = profile picture

Catching up tends to be slower than being here since the start because while you're catching up more posts are being posted. This creates two observations:
1. If you read at the rate that people are posting, you will never catch up.
2. In order to catch up at the same rate as people who were here from the start you need to be able to read the entire thread in one go.

For slow readers this gives them two bad options:
1. Skim the entire thread and miss important subtle details that cause their reads to be worse than they could have been.
2. Take the time to carefully read through the entire thread and look scummy for taking too long to catch up.

I don't consider the possible Human/Freedom scumteam compelling enough to need a response from him by d1 (Though I will need one by d2), so since it doesn't cost me much in a scum!Freedom game I'd rather give the chance for town!Freedom to catch up properly

[usesPython]

Now onto defending myself in a way that won't make me seem any less scummier

As town adopting a no trust necessary, highly analytical position does a few things:
1. Lets me generate reads in such a way that I can quickly identify if new information should cause that read to change (e.g. 406)
2. Ensures that people understand the why of those reads if I die, so that if new information comes up that should change those reads I don't need to be alive to explain it
3. Allows me to avoid using my poor tone-reading skills and instead focus on what I'm good at

This is the first part where python talks about the benefits of his playstyle as a townie. What stands out to me here is #3. Python admits he has poor tone-reading skills, yet the majority of his case against me involves my "confident tone" and how it doesn't match my analysis.

I'd like you consider why anyone would adopt an "unnatural" playstyle; in other words doing something you can't see them doing irl. After all, it's not like I go robot mode when I'm talk to people face to face. For me, the reason why I do it is pretty simple: it increases my win rate. This gives rise to a subtle but important point: if an "unnatural" playstyle no longer increases my win rate then I have no reason to keep using it

Consider the most important limitation of no trust reads: it only works if people make slips that indicate having knowledge not available solely from the thread. Therefore if there are no such slips left to analyze there's nothing left to do. The reads stall out and only two options remain: do nothing or change strategy. If I'm trying to win I consider doing nothing to be the worst possible strategy, therefore I must change strategy.

Having said that, changing strategy doesn't mean I need to adopt an entirely new playstyle. In this case adding tone-reading to my scumhunting doesn't change points 1 and 2.

I feel like town!Python would understand this and not tunnel on me for something he could be wrong about

You're sadly wrong here. Every single read I've made so far I've done it with the knowledge that statistically speaking there's a 75% chance I'm pushing town (2 other scum and 6 other townies). If I let the possibility of being wrong stop me from making posts that result in multi-page discussions I would never make any reads

As scum it allows me to:
1. Push for miselims in such a way as to avoid being considered scummy (After all, if people agreed with my reasoning then shouldn't everyone on the wagon be considered scummy instead of just me? Or even everyone off the wagon for knowing that they'd flip town and not wanting to look scummy?)
2. Bog the game down in long fights that seem town on town in order to reduce the chances of my scum teammates saying something scummy

Here python talks about the benefits of his playstyle as a wolf. #2 is interesting because he has definitely succeeding in bogging the game down. He first tunneled on Aureal and now he's tunneling on me

Consider

why

it works for scum!Python though. This playstyle is already extremely scummy, the only reason it even remotely works as scum is because as scum!Python I can emulate town!Python following the same playstyle. In other words, as scum!Python I can hide behind 2 being NAI because I do the same thing as town

There's a few things you can do if you suspect I'm scum:

2. Look for people I'm not reading even though I should be. As town!Python I only have a limited amount of time and energy to do in depth analysis, as scum!Python I will take advantage of this perception to hyperfocus on people I know are town in order to avoid having to give a read on my scum partner. Asking me about my read on a specific person means I need to give a response instead of conveniently ignoring them

Here python says he only has a limited amount of time and energy to do in-depth analysis when he's town. Uhh? He definitely had plenty of time and energy to go through my entire post history and cross-reference everything I've said with other posts. He also has been giving in-depth analysis way before the tunnel on me (see Aureal and Weuler). So python's own description of his town play doesn't match his actual play this game.

We have different standards for "limited amount of time and energy". Consider the fact that that it's been almost 9 days since the game started and so far I've only had enough time and energy to do an in-depth analysis on Aureal and Weuler, and am still in the process of finishing my analysis on you. There's still 5 other people I need to go through and while I do expect to be finished with everyone by the end of day 2 that still leaves the question of how to prioritize reads to give the maximum amount of value for town if I get nightkilled n1. I can either simultaneously work on 8 separate reads and end d1 with a bunch of half-formed reads or I can go one at a time and end d1 with a few deeply analyzed reads.

Furthermore he goes on to say that as scum, he will

take advantage of this to hyperfocus on people he knows are town

. This is alarming for a couple reasons. One, he hyperfocused on Aureal and has since switched his read on her completely and now thinks she is town.

See the reasoning for why scum #2 is NAI

Two, in python's progression against me he said

twice

that I'm not producing results, but how would python know this if he's not scum? I have expressed scumreads on Human, Elements, and Weuler, so how could town!python possibly know I'm wrong about these people? This combined with the two imaginary scumreads on me made me look at python's hyperfocus in a new light

Now see THIS is the kind of post I wanted to see from you but couldn't find when I was talking about your bad scumhunting. You've independently looked into my posts and behavior, made a mental model of scum!Python and town!Python and can't resolve the contradictions created by assuming a town!Python game, which causes you to read me as scum.

If I go and say Meg is scum because their name starts with M and Mafia starts with an M and they flip scum, that's not good scumhunting
If I go and make an in depth analysis on Weuler and come to the conclusion that Weuler is scum due to multiple well-thought out reasons and they flip town, that's not bad scumhunting

Python explains that as scum he will do these things to take pressure off of his partner. I was trying to look at interactions and I found python defending Arko's slot:

Arko: Aside from a few brief reads he hasn't really contributed at all. In 2108 a scum did something similar, promising reads "soon" every time they posted. I really don't like this.

I think he's a decent candidate for a day 2 policy elim if he keeps doing it and no one else outs themselves as scum (Scum sure as hell aren't gonna nightkill him, if he's scum for obvious reasons and if he's town then him being alive in ELO is a dream for them), for day 1 though I feel like a flip from an active poster will do more to generate reads that lead to effective elims later while also giving him the chance to either replace out or start actually participating

7. Arko - Day 2 policy elim is statistically better

Python seems pretty adamant on keeping pressure off of Arko. I agree with the stance that we should let Arko be replaced but I find it really odd that python went out of his way to respond to Weuler being suspicious of the inactivity. It almost reads like we should ignore Arko completely today and deal with him on D2. I'm still working to figure out if python just ratted on himself with this big post but if he does flip red, based on his own analysis of his wolf play, I think we should look at Arko/Meg as a possible teammate

This is a bit subtle but still pretty simple. If you're familiar with trading card games (e.g. Yu-Gi-Oh, Hearthstone, Magic: the Gathering) you might have come across the term "win more card". It's a card that when you draw it in a losing position it does nothing for you and if you draw it in a winning position it'll make you win even harder. The reason these cards are considered bad is because if you draw them when they actually do something (i.e. in a winning position) then they're still useless because you were going to win anyways, and so a card that's "lose less" is better because if you're in a losing position it'll help you turn the game around and if you're in a winning position you're winning anyways and don't need that card to do it.

Eliming Arko d1 for not posting instead of doing it d2 is a "win more" play instead of a "lose less" play. If they're scum? Great, we're winning by a landslide because it's a 1v6 after the nightkill. If they flip town though? We get no real content that can be reanalyzed with the knowledge that it was made from a town POV, scum nightkill an obvtown and we're back to where we started only worse because now it's a 2v5 instead of 2v7. In comparison if we elim someone active then either they're scum and it's a 1v6 or they're town and it's a 2v5 with new content and an obvscum to elim by the end of the day

---

706/709/710 - Partial logical contradiction

Ignore this, I forgot Meg is Arko's replacement and thought you were assuming a 3 person scumteam

[Elements]

The problem with your posting Python is that I'm simply not going to read that post

[usesPython]

The problem with your posting Python is that I'm simply not going to read that post

Hang on I've got the perfect solution:

I'm town because my PM said so

[usesPython]

I get not voting their themselves. But calling someone out for doing it and having an issue with them being suspicious of the inactive slot is what I'm not following. It's not like Weuler was saying we should vote out Arko. He didn't even vote for him. He just said Arko's inactivity was suspicious and python seemed to have an issue with that

That in itself isn't the most suspicious thing in the world but when you read over python's description of how they play as scum, it matches up to how they are playing this game, including the subtle defense of Arko

Not sure if python or Meg are the best options for a lim today but them being linked is definitely worth noting

I'd like point out that of the two quotes of me discussing elims 532 was explicitly talking about elims.

By 492 I was still working out 532 and so the mindset carried over, whether you take that at face value or read into it is up to you because that's all I can really say

[usesPython]

By 492 I was still working out 532 and so the mindset carried over, whether you take that at face value or read into it is up to you because that's all I can really say

Wait no actually I

can

say more because there's one other slip my mindset leading up to 532 caused: 485. Up until I started considering what people flipping town meant for reads Black was cruising pretty solidly under my scum radar. Me realizing that I subconsciously slotted them as town and yet somehow couldn't get any information from them flipping town is what caused the read to begin with

[T-Bone]

Skittles Fact: Borkjerfkin is quiet quitting his real jobs as we speak.

Vote Count

usesPython - 1

(Aureal)

e-4

Save The dragons - 1

(Weuler)

e-4

Black - 1

(usesPython)

e-4

Freedom - 1

(Elements)

e-4

Elements - 1

(Save The Dragons)

e-4

Human - 1

(MegAzumarill)

e-4

Not Voting - 3

(Black, Freedom, Human)

With 9 Alive, It Takes 5 to Eliminate

Activity Check: All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2023-02-16 10:00:00)

[MegAzumarill]

Meg is scum because their name starts with M and Mafia starts with an M

Oh no I've been caught

[Elements]

We have less than two days and not a single wagon, this game is incredible

[MegAzumarill]

Python I' m not going to argue with your case on Black, mostly because I agree with you, but Black is actively contributing and I don't find the evidence enough to take a shot when I feel we can be confident one way or another on their alignment by day 2, tops.

[Elements]

VOTE: StD
It's the only wagon with two votes, hop on people

[MegAzumarill]

i dont wanna

[MegAzumarill]

AIright, so looking into the ISOs of (weuler/HS+Freedom/Human)

Weuler and Human both feel like they don't engage with the game all that much, but both have variosu parts where they do engage to varying levels of how genuine they feel. If one of them is scum motivated over the other I'd think it's more likely Weuler than Human.
VOTE: Weuler

HS actually has a pretty good ISO for early game, there's just nothing from freedom to really reinforce it. Slot could still flip scum. Maybe won't.

+ Bonus
STD - You've only really engaged with Elements so far. Personally this feels like your town play and I can't very much identify scum motivation for it but I'd love if you could work on some thoughts outside of Weuler/Elements so we can find a good consensus lim for today.

[MegAzumarill]

Not unreasonable, although I don't really know if we'd need to defend each other right now as partners since neither of us seem particularly likely lim candidates.

Who do you think are more likely lim candidates, if not you?

Shrug

[Black]

Python, I pretty much agree with a lot of what you are saying in that wall. Your playstyle leans townie but like you said it also can come across as wolf imitating townie. I still think comments like this are disingenuous:

If I go and say Meg is scum because their name starts with M and Mafia starts with an M and they flip scum, that's not good scumhunting
If I go and make an in depth analysis on Weuler and come to the conclusion that Weuler is scum due to multiple well-thought out reasons and they flip town, that's not bad scumhunting

I play this game somewhere between these two and I don't think I should be criticized for it. My opinions and reads aren't basic but I also don't feel confidently enough in them to make in-depth analysis or multiple well thought out posts. I think there is value in giving opinions and asking questions and then getting a behavioral read on things. The analysis will come as more information does. For now I think I should be allowed to play how I want, and of course you are more than welcome to think I'm scummy for it

Regarding Arko I just want to reiterate that I will

never

suggest we lim an inactive. I will vote for pressure, push for prods/replacements, etc... but if someone is just straight up not here then that should always be a last resort. This is assuming the player didn't do many scummy things before they vanished a la Arko

[Aureal]

Not unreasonable, although I don't really know if we'd need to defend each other right now as partners since neither of us seem particularly likely lim candidates.

Who do you think are more likely lim candidates, if not you?

Shrug

Yeah, that's about what I'm thinking too, so if you had a different view I would be interested in hearing it. I think Elements wore out our wagons early, nobody wants to do it anymore.

[Black]

I'm going to have to do another look over the game in the morning and decide who the best vote is here