Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[Human]

Makes logical sense although could be desperate scum the thing is I feel like the elements argument for the StD elimination is counterintuitive because he himself would give more information from an elimination so
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: Elements

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: weuler

[Save The Dragons]

willing to do elements too

[Save The Dragons]

im not going to come up with a flashy analysis wallpost here so if you think i'm scum go ahead and lim me and then consider elements and weuler tomorrow.

[Elements]

Makes logical sense although could be desperate scum the thing is I feel like the elements argument for the StD elimination is counterintuitive because he himself would give more information from an elimination so
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: Elements

My reasoning for StD is that I think he's scum. I've never said anything about information from a flip.
Also not a he

[Elements]

Makes logical sense although could be desperate scum the thing is I feel like the elements argument for the StD elimination is counterintuitive because he himself would give more information from an elimination so
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: Elements

Also, assuming you vote me. What information do you get when I flip town?

[MegAzumarill]

Look there was a massive wagon earlier on weuler but it halted because we wanted time to talk now we have talked do we have any better reads now? I don't think so

If today is a miselim, who do you think being miselimed would maximize the chances of town winning?

This is not a particulalry helpful way to think about it, and that's because mafia functions in a positive feedback loop. Our odds get exponentially better assuming we lim scum as early as possible so while it may be tempting to try and hedge like this the actual highest EV play for town still comes from shooting the most likely scum.

[Human]

Well, we wouldn't get much info from StD either but by meg's logic, I think Wueler is a good Idea sorry I have been a little aggressive and not thinking coming down to the deadline
UNVOTE: Elements
VOTE: Weuler

[T-Bone]

Skittles Fact: PenguinPower owns real estate in Japan.

Vote Count

usesPython - 1

(Aureal)

e-4

Save The dragons - 3

(Weuler, Elements, usesPython)

e-2

Weuler - 3

(MegAzumarill, Save The Dragons, Human)

e-2

Not Voting - 2

(Black, Freedom)

With 9 Alive, It Takes 5 to Eliminate

Activity Check: All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2023-02-16 10:00:00)

[Human]

In my defense I just said I was down to flip Weuler. I didn't vote for him because I don't think we should end the Day yet

The deadline is approaching Black

[Black]

Ok. Time is running out and it's time to make a decision here.

Before yesterday my most confident scumread was Elements and I wasn't even really confident in the read to begin with. But Elements hit me with 3 posts that I consider very pro-town and they made me rethink things:

StD does not feel town to me. His scum read on me is based off of my vote hopping, which is NAI for me.
269 are the only reads with anything about them other than on me (which again is just for vote hopping). StD then leans on those initial reads as a way to discredit Python saying the only notable thing he's done it to scum me, then by 570 those reads are gone and StD is now towning everyone else?
the only read StD has is that I'm scum.
596 is indeed a cop out, if no one is pinging you why not try and do something to make someone ping you like, idk, voting someone. The whole iso is bland

It doesn't give PRs more info?
It gives them more WIFOM too

They also don't know your alignment so you could be deliberately giving false information to lead them away from who you want to kill. You're also if town telling scum who you think any hypothetical protectives should target and therfore who they shouldn't kill

I'm pretty convinced these posts come from a town perspective. They could be wolf!Elements doing townie things to seem more townie but I don't think that possibility is enough to make Elements our best lim candidate today. If we continue to get analysis like this from Elements then I think she can be valuable for the solve moving forward. Most of my suspicion toward Elements came early when I didn't really understand her playstyle. The bandwagon votes and lack of analysis to back up any of her opinions screamed wolf to me but can easily be explained by Elements herself:

#665 and #666 is the best analysis I've seen from you all game. Idk why it took 27 pages but better late than never!

I'm much more of a vibe read kinda bean than an analysis based reads one

I'm buying this for now even if it could come back to bite me in the butt later

That leads me to my other main scumread: Weuler. Early on Weuler did some things that I liked and didn't like.

Things I liked:
1. Discouraging PR talk
2. Honesty and admitting when they were wrong
3. Going after inactives

Things I didn't like:
1. Felt very surface-levely
2. Case against Aureal was weak
3. Sheeped python when python accused me of flying under the radar

Like Elements though, Weuler seems to be providing more after he was called out for not doing much. I originally wanted to lim Weuler because a) his surface level playstyle was scummy, and b) I thought his alignment would give me more insight into my scumread on Elements because it was around this time that Elements was acting her scummiest and she also put Weuler at e-1. Now that I'm starting to townread Elements I don't think seeing Weuler's alignment helps me in that regard. Seeing him flip town would no longer convince me that Elements is scum like it would have earlier in the game. Weuler has gotten less surface-levely as the day has progressed so I would rather keep him to D2 to see if we can get more of this

When looking elsewhere for a better lim candidate, I don't think Human, Meg, or Freedom are good options at all. I TR Human, Meg's slot could easily be lurky scum but she has had several posts that I consider pro-town since replacing in, and I'm not getting much from Freedom at all. I think that lim'ing Freedom gives us the least amount of information to work with if he does flip town

This leads me to python. This slot is giving me problems. Like Weuler, there are things I really like and things I really don't like coming from python.

Things I like:
1. Good analysis and seems genuine in scumhunting
2. Early progressions felt pretty pro-town to me
3. Overall knowledge of mafia and human psychology in general

Things I don't like:
1. Eagerness to discuss PRs early in the game as well as recently
2. Tunneling while coming up with imaginary scumreads on me
3. Steering the protective role toward certain candidates

#3 here is the scummiest thing they have done all game IMO and Elements was quick to point it out. Python is the type of player that if they're scum, keeping up this type of playstyle should eventually cause them to post themselves into a corner so to speak. If they're town, they are incredibly valuable to town winning the game, and for that reason I don't think they are a good option D1. I would like to hear more from them D2 and possibly get more in-depth analysis on some other players

This finally leads me to StD. I townread him early due to a couple reasons: we agreed that Weuler and Elements were kinda scummy and we also townread Aureal. My opinion on these players (especially Elements) has changed so I no longer consider this a "mindmeld" situation between us. I had to go back and read his ISO to confirm my townread and other than some vibey stuff early, I didn't really get the same read on him as I did at first. StD has been pretty surface-level this game but with just a sprinkle of effort thrown in. It seems like they are doing just enough to be considered helpful and useful, while still maintaining tunnel vision on Elements/Weuler. The whole switching between Weuler and Elements pinged me as him not really caring who gets eliminated as long as it's one of the popular wagons. He couldn't even give a reason for switching from Weuler to Elements when asked about it. My opinion of StD has changed in light of my unexpected TR of Elements, and I think this is the best option for us

VOTE: StD

[Save The Dragons]

i'm vt

[Save The Dragons]

i did give reasons why i voted elements and weuler? what reasons did i not give?

[Save The Dragons]

i think both could be scum so i'm waffling on both of them and more interested in the one i can potentially get limmed

[Weuler]

Great to see some wagons in action

[Weuler]

i'm vt

Why did you rr without any intent to hammer?

[Black]

I changed my mind

This was your reasoning for switching from Weuler to Elements after 4 hours. You never elaborated when asked about it. Then you switched back to Weuler shortly after? Also with no reasoning?

Now you give the reason that you're down to vote either, but I'm getting weird vibes here and see 3 options:

1) You're scum and Weuler/Elements are town
2) You're scum and Weuler is your buddy
3) You're town and Weuler/Elements are TBD

The liklihood of you being scum here seems greater than you being town

[Save The Dragons]

i've listed reasoning for both of them being scum that hasn't gone away

[Save The Dragons]

that also seems like a fallacy to say i'm more likely scum than town

[MegAzumarill]

Black aren't all the reasons you townread weuler for textbook townie things?

Because if the reasons you don't want to lim there are all not including anything they actually think about the game that should show its more likely to be scum faking townie than actually an engaged townie

[MegAzumarill]

Like those are the first things to do to fake being town as scum

[Save The Dragons]

i'm vt

Why did you rr without any intent to hammer?

why not

[Weuler]

i'm vt

Why did you rr without any intent to hammer?

why not

Because it gives everyone an incentive to hammer you to avoid revealing a PR

[Save The Dragons]

maybe i should die so you can see i'm town and follow my lead tomorrow

i'm a little worried about black now

[Weuler]

In my experience living people are better at leading than dead people