Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[usesPython]

People that have played with Weuler before, how natural do you think Weulers joke on probability distributions was in between them pushing STD:

i'm vt

Why did you rr without any intent to hammer?

why not

Because it gives everyone an incentive to hammer you to avoid revealing a PR

1. black is scum with weuler
2. black is scum with elements
3. black is town

black is more likely to be scum????

Didn't you know every probability distribution is uniform?

i figured it would be good to let town know i'm not a PR so killing me is fine if they so choose.

I don't see how this makes sense. If you are town, then you are saying that you want to make it easier for town to eliminate you, instead of pursuing another wagon?

[T-Bone]

Skittles Fact: SirCakez is a distant descendent of Napoleon Bonaparte.

Vote Count

usesPython - 1

(Aureal)

e-4

Save The dragons - 3

(Weuler, usesPython, Black)

e-2

Weuler - 2

(MegAzumarill, Human)

e-3

Elements - 1

(Save The Dragons)

e-4

Black - 1

(Elements)

e-4

Not Voting - 1

(Freedom)

With 9 Alive, It Takes 5 to Eliminate

Activity Check: All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2023-02-16 10:00:00)

[Aureal]

That feels like way more analysis than this situation warrants. I don't think it's at all a given that people will still feel the same about who's scummy tomorrow after getting new information. Predicting who was going to get wagoned to end the day was hard enough 24 hours ago; day 2 will likely be a totally different situation.

Dragons is voting Elements now too, I forgot earlier. I'm going to go ahead and VOTE: Weuler which should put him back to e-2. Not because of the joke though, which could have ulterior purpose or could just be pointing out something he thought was silly.

[Human]

Freedom you haven't voted anyone yet I think now is the time to actually do something

[Human]

Well I'm about to go to sleep and something needs to be done someone can hammer this if they want to
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: StD

[usesPython]

Well I'm about to go to sleep and something needs to be done someone can hammer this if they want to
UNVOTE: Weuler
VOTE: StD

Did you make this vote because you think STD is scummier than Weuler?

[usesPython]

Not because of the joke though, which could have ulterior purpose or could just be pointing out something he thought was silly.

Consider the post timing though. Weuler makes the joke 1 minute after the quoted STD message and then takes another 12 minutes to continue pushing STD for an earlier message. Both of them are active during this time. Do you think this is them coordinating a bus in Mafia PT

[usesPython]

To me the timing of the joke would indicate that if it's not a Weuler/STD scumteam Weuler can respond to a joke in about a minute. If that's the case though, why does it take them another 12 minutes to make their next post when it's a one-liner question.

[usesPython]

This is especially relevant when Weuler shows they can make a one-liner question post in two minutes with 835 but take six times as long with 811?

[Aureal]

No. A joke is a lot easier to spit out than specific game content, which requires thought about what exactly you want to ask and how to phrase it and maybe even whether it's something you even want to talk about at all.

Also there were a crapload of posts in between, so even if Weuler did smash out the question in a minute or two he could easily have gotten bogged down by there constantly being new posts in Pedit. Or, y'know, just have been doing something else- I'm often peeking in just for a moment then getting back to work for a bit.

[Freedom]

Freedom would you mind sharing other TRs you have of StD? I'm having a hard time clearing him over his claim. He's an experienced player and I'm not following why everyone is expecting him to do the usual scum thing here

I've only played with scum!STD once but he was an Antisocial Survivor that time.
He did claim VT in that game but that was because most of the PRs had already claimed and the only unclaimed PRs could not be fakeclaimed without punishment from the mod.
Though, I think STD is the sort who claims optimally as scum.

Welp. The deadline is in 14 hours and I'll be busy tonight so I won't be around much. I think as long as we go StD or Weuler we have a decent shot here

I don't want to vote STD so if it is necessary,
VOTE: Weuler

[usesPython]

Weuler walk me through your thought process for keeping your vote on STD instead of switching to Elements as the deadline started creeping up as Elements got off the STD wagon (so from around 654 to around 726)

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: weuler

[usesPython]

I don't want to vote STD so if it is necessary,
VOTE: Weuler

I think everyone at some point has scumread Weuler and now it seems like a compromise wagon

Well what do you know, you were right Elements

STD and Weuler both at E-1, before anyone hammers Weuler we should probably let Weuler claim

[MegAzumarill]

UNVOTE:

If anyone wants to put a vote there, my vote's spiritually still on weuler

[Aureal]

I don't want to vote STD so if it is necessary,
VOTE: Weuler

I think everyone at some point has scumread Weuler and now it seems like a compromise wagon

Well what do you know, you were right Elements

STD and Weuler both at E-1, before anyone hammers Weuler we should probably let Weuler claim

Is that you saying you will hammer?

[usesPython]

Is that you saying you will hammer?

I'm available to vote until the deadline, if the choice is Weuler elim or no elim I'll hammer Weuler

[Weuler]

Weuler walk me through your thought process for keeping your vote on STD instead of switching to Elements as the deadline started creeping up as Elements got off the STD wagon (so from around 654 to around 726)

I was fine with either of them getting eliminated and I still thought STD was a good choice. I should say that I still feel like an elements lim could be good, but right now it is probably to late during the day to switch.

[Weuler]

I really liked my conversation with STD from yesterday (i.e. 12 hours ago). His responses didn't feel artificial. My highest scumreads are still Elements/STD but STD is now second on that list

[usesPython]

UNVOTE:

If anyone wants to put a vote there, my vote's spiritually still on weuler

I don't like this unvote. There's like 9 hours left until the deadline when you posted this and you go to sleep two hours after your unvote based off 869. Since we're basically in a deadlock between Weuler and STD that'll only get resolved if one person switches wagons or Elements votes for either, this basically guarantees that Weuler doesn't get elim'd here

[usesPython]

This is especially problematic when Meg is town reading STD. There straight up isn't enough people who post at this time to force a third wagon even if they all somehow agreed to do it. If you're town reading STD and scum reading Weuler why take your vote off Weuler just because they're E-1?

[Elements]

VOTE: StD

[usesPython]

Welp, that's that I guess. See y'all in d2

[Aureal]

This is especially problematic when Meg is town reading STD. There straight up isn't enough people who post at this time to force a third wagon even if they all somehow agreed to do it. If you're town reading STD and scum reading Weuler why take your vote off Weuler just because they're E-1?

The point is Meg wanted to make sure there was a hammer. So if someone else wanting to vote Weuler came along before she goes to bed she cleared space on the wagon for them while allowing more time for people to post.

[usesPython]

This is especially problematic when Meg is town reading STD. There straight up isn't enough people who post at this time to force a third wagon even if they all somehow agreed to do it. If you're town reading STD and scum reading Weuler why take your vote off Weuler just because they're E-1?

The point is Meg wanted to make sure there was a hammer. So if someone else wanting to vote Weuler came along before she goes to bed she cleared space on the wagon for them while allowing more time for people to post.

So then why not revote before going to bed