Newbie 2111 - Know Your Skittles! (Game Over)

[Elements]

pap

[Elements]

my mafia brain is not functioning right now

[Elements]

I can see a Human/Furtive team

[Weuler]

I feel like I have let at least one scum get onto my townlist

[Weuler]

You've known for two days that that couldn't be the scum team. Feels kind of performative to vote then unvote shortly afterwards over it.

I sort of felt like this was the expected course of action at the end of day yesterday and that made me more wary of it, but with all the confTown suspicious of him I'll go ahead and VOTE: Weuler

The last part feels like you're dumping responsibility for the vote on other people. Also since when do we have conftowns?

[Aureal]

I think we can be pretty sure Meg and Dragons were town.

[Weuler]

Ah, the phrasing made me think you were referring to someone who was still alive

[Weuler]

Also I can't remember if I answered your remark, but I like to play the game one step at a time

[furtiveglance]

Game has slowed a bit so I'll put a vote down. I think Weuler and Elements are both scum, but after yesterday's vote Weuler needs to go. I also read a bit of 2109 and Weuler seems more energetic in that one.

VOTE: Weuler

[usesPython]

why did you unvote Weuler here?

Well once they add the ability to vote for multiple people at the same time in newbie games I'll be sure to do so, until then I'm forced to unvote in order to vote someone else.

If you're asking why STD over Weuler I already explained it to Human in 960.

[usesPython]

Furtive I don't understand why you give me +town in 924 in my page 3/4 posting while I'm actively talking about VT's.

[T-Bone]

Skittles Fact: PenguinPower thinks he invented the plunger.

Vote Count

Weuler - 2

(Aureal, furtiveglance)

e-2

Human - 1

(Elements)

e-3

Not Voting - 4

(Black, Human, usesPython, Weuler)

With 7 Alive, It Takes 4 to Eliminate

Activity Check: All Good!

Deadline:

(expired on 2023-02-25 13:00:00)

[furtiveglance]

More formally:

Observation 1: Human Sequencer has posted in the past at specific times of day

Observation 2: Human Sequencer has not posted in this thread even at those specific times of day

Hypothesis 1: Something is preventing them from posting in this thread

Hypothesis 1a: RL is preventing them from seeing this thread -> Not posting is NAI

Hypothesis 1b: They have seen this thread and are choosing not to post -> Not posting is AI

Observation 3: This is not Human Sequencers first game (they're here as SE) -> They should know lurking is scummy behavior

Hypothesis 2: If they know lurking is scummy and they are scum, they would post so as to not seem scummy

Conclusion 1: If they are choosing not to post and they know lurking is scummy, it's because they are not interested -> They got a boring role (i.e. not scum and not PR)

I think this thought process is +town

[usesPython]

My vote is spiritually on Weuler right now, I'll give Elements like 24 hours before I vote/hammer Weuler to see if Elements comes up with any good arguments for a scumteam that isn't Weuler/Elements or Human/Furtive or Python/anyone (Seeing as I already consider the solve to be Weuler/Elements or Human/Furtive, and know I'm town)

[furtiveglance]

My vote is spiritually on Weuler right now, I'll give Elements like 24 hours before I vote/hammer Weuler to see if Elements comes up with any good arguments for a scumteam that isn't Weuler/Elements or Human/Furtive or Python/anyone (Seeing as I already consider the solve to be Weuler/Elements or Human/Furtive, and know I'm town)

This is giving me pause because it's not at all how I ever think about the game. Why have you decided there are only 2 possible scumteams? Why does each have 2 different members?

[usesPython]

This is giving me pause because it's not at all how I ever think about the game. Why have you decided there are only 2 possible scumteams? Why does each have 2 different members?

I don't consider there to be only two possible scumteams, I just consider the solve to be those two scumteams. By far the likeliest scumteam in my eyes is Weuler/Elements for a few reasons:

1. Weuler is pretty scummy
2. Elements starts a counterwagon on STD d1 while people are pretty sus of Weuler, getting a miselim
3. Elements comes out with a townread on Weuler d2

If Weuler flips town then I straight up don't understand what the hell scum!Elements is doing, at which point I consider an Elements/anyone scumteam less likely than the next scumteam. Human/Furtive have some damn weird interactions with posts like 195, and 440. I don't think those posts by themselves are enough to call them a scumteam, especially given that I'm pretty sure the wagon on Weuler d1 was pushed by town. I do however think a Human/Furtive scumteam is more likely than an Elements/not Weuler scumteam, especially given that a Human/Furtive mason team is impossible given that Meg flipped Jailkeeper.

As for why no scumteam with Black or Aureal: I townread Black, and in an Aureal scum game I can't explain the miselim on STD going through when there were so many divergent reasons for people being on STD:

Weuler was on STD trying to not get hammered and because they sr'd Elements/STD
Elements was on STD because of the vibe they got from him
Black was on STD because they considered him opportunistic with his wagons and saw his reads as surface level
Human was on STD because he got sheeped by Elements and me.
I was on STD because I considered the EV gained from a STD elim higher than a Weuler elim

In contrast, the Weuler wagon:
Meg considered them scum
Aureal considered them scum
STD considered them scum
Freedom townread STD

I think there was at least one scum on the STD wagon so that rules out Aureal/Furtive. In an Aureal/Human game I flip Human and still consider Furtive/Human more likely than Aureal/Human because then I can't explain scum!Human being so aimless when Aureal should have been more active compared to Human Sequencer or Freedom. In an Aureal/Elements game I can't explain 298 given that it was looking like there was about to be a toxic 1v1 with Weuler and me that an Aureal/Weuler scumteam would want to take advantage of

[furtiveglance]

The way I see the game is that we have 3 votes, and I see 3 potential scum in Weuler/Elements/Human

[usesPython]

The way I see the game is that we have 3 votes, and I see 3 potential scum in Weuler/Elements/Human

The way I look at the game is that there's room for exactly one more miselim before every vote by every townie needs to be on scum. If your top 2 scumteams contain the same person then that means you can afford to have a solve for 3 scumteams. If your top 2 scumteams don't share a person then you can only afford to solve for 2 scumteams.

If I considered you obvtown then my solve would also be two scum in Weuler/Elements/Human, doesn't matter the order because anyone else I either can't explain a single scumteam with them in it or I townread them. Since I don't have that strong of a read on you, hedging my bets with testing for a Weuler/Elements scumteam and then testing a Human/Furtive scumteam is the better play for me. Essentially, it's me saying that I consider an Elements/Human or Elements/Furtive scumteam less likely than a Weuler/Elements or Human/Furtive scumteam

[furtiveglance]

If you're sorting Elements as unpaired with anyone but Weuler because their play wouldn't 'make sense' otherwise, then you're wrongly assuming things about Elements as a player.

[Aureal]

Python, can you give us anything to rule out Black as possible scum other than your townread? I was kind of leery about how she broke for Dragons at the end of the day, like maybe trying to avert a Weuler elimination.

Furtive, you've played with Elements before, right? Anyone else here you're familiar with besides me?

[furtiveglance]

Python, can you give us anything to rule out Black as possible scum other than your townread? I was kind of leery about how she broke for Dragons at the end of the day, like maybe trying to avert a Weuler elimination.

Furtive, you've played with Elements before, right? Anyone else here you're familiar with besides me?

Completed games it's just you, Elements, Meg, STD (rip in peace)

Saw a bit of 2109 as I said and Weuler is a lot scummier this game.

[usesPython]

If you're sorting Elements as unpaired with anyone but Weuler because their play wouldn't 'make sense' otherwise, then you're wrongly assuming things about Elements as a player.

I'm saying that if it's not a Weuler/Elements game the game makes more sense if I assume a Human/Furtive game than if I assume an Elements/Human or Elements/Furtive game

[usesPython]

Python, can you give us anything to rule out Black as possible scum other than your townread? I was kind of leery about how she broke for Dragons at the end of the day, like maybe trying to avert a Weuler elimination.

Can I assume you're town for this argument or do you need it shown while entertaining the possibility of you being scum?

[usesPython]

If I'm solving with the assumption of town!Aureal then Weuler flipping means the following:

1. Weuler flips scum, 1 miselim left
2. Flip Elements, if they flip scum then gg
3. If Elements flips town then 0 miselims left but Human/Furtive interactions in d1 no longer imply a Human/Furtive scumteam in which case flip Black

OR

1. Weuler flips town, 0 miselims left, Black trying to prevent the Weuler elim is no longer scum protecting scum so what exactly stops a tr on Black at that point?

[Aureal]

Completed games it's just you, Elements, Meg, STD (rip in peace)

Saw a bit of 2109 as I said and Weuler is a lot scummier this game.

Yeah, that's what I figured. I realized that you're not being the aggressive hotshot here that I've seen before, but I think that's probably just because there's nobody here you feel the need to boss around like you did with Drew and Gimli in prior games. Elements and I don't seem the sort you'd bother with and obviously you're not going to have any rapport to attempt it with people you don't know.

If I'm solving with the assumption of town!Aureal then Weuler flipping means the following:

1. Weuler flips scum, 1 miselim left
2. Flip Elements, if they flip scum then gg
3. If Elements flips town then 0 miselims left but Human/Furtive interactions in d1 no longer imply a Human/Furtive scumteam in which case flip Black

OR

1. Weuler flips town, 0 miselims left, Black trying to prevent the Weuler elim is no longer scum protecting scum so what exactly stops a tr on Black at that point?

I'm not really clear how 3 works, I gather something to do with the posts around 440? I've got COVID, can you break this down and make it easier for my tired brain to handle?