Newbie 2117 | Postgame

[Deltabreedy]

Oh I'm not daft. I'm responding to your uncharacteristically weak push and the opportune nature of your vote switching. You're literally doing what you were accusing me of 2 pages ago.

Also, a thought occurs.
We all know that Andante mechanically isn't confirmed town, right?

[Black]

Why would Town!Black present a huge case on me, but then work to get someone else limmed whilst still calling me scum? It's apparent that I'm her biggest 'SR' yet she's focused elsewhere, and it's easier play off what could be a town!Mala flip than a Delta town flip.

You're either scum or you're daft writing this

[Black]

Andante is cleared. There was no cc. What are you even saying?

[Deltabreedy]

Black - have you considered that we might be on Column A, row 2 here, where both PRs have no reason to call out Andante's claim as false?

[Black]

Black - have you considered that we might be on Column A, row 2 here, where both PRs have no reason to call out Andante's claim as false?

That's not possible. No one has pushed for an Andante lim

[Deltabreedy]

No-one would need to because their own role would be compatible with Andantes

[Black]

Actually I didn't think about that

[Black]

So if Andante is scum and they know we're in column A because they have a roleblocker, how would she know we are in row 2?

[Deltabreedy]

Setup Info

Newbie Setup

Newbie Setup

NewD3 (as designed by RadiantCowbells):

	A	B	C
Mafia	Mafia Roleblocker	Mafia Rolecop	Mafia Goon
Row 1	Town Cop and Town Doctor	Town Tracker and Town Friendly Neighbor	Town Cop and Vanilla Townie
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper and Town Tracker	Town Jailkeeper and Town Friendly Neighbor	Town Jailkeeper and Vanilla Townie
Row 3	Town Mason and Town Mason	Town Tracker and Town Doctor	Town Mason and Town Mason

*snip*

If the setup was Column A, Row 2 - then neither town PRs would mechanically have a reason to suspect Andante's claim. The message was sent to the same person who was NK'd, which also means that a tracker who looked at it wouldn't necessarily expect that the NK came from them, and it means that there's no way to actually confirm it beyond Andante's word.
To claim otherwise is just straight-up false.

Furthermore, the manner in which Andante claimed was extremely weird, and Scum!Andante locktowning people I was suspecting would make quite a lot of sense, since no-one suspects the claimed PR and she can discredit my arguments on someone who was her scumpartner.

Andante/Blue
Andante/Kawaii

Are these possible to anyone else?

Ninja'd:
It might have been a spur-of-the-moment gambit, the odds aren't great (1/3 of Row A having the correct set of town PR's to avoid counters) but when you follow the play this kind of clicks with me.

The refusal to engage with my arguments
The wishy washy voting
The locktowning of anyone I suspect

It makes a tonne of sense, it's just numerically unlikely

[Deltabreedy]

There was no reason for FN!Andante to claim when they did.

[Black]

Why would Town!Black present a huge case on me, but then work to get someone else limmed whilst still calling me scum? It's apparent that I'm her biggest 'SR' yet she's focused elsewhere, and it's easier play off what could be a town!Mala flip than a Delta town flip.

You're either scum or you're daft writing this

To elaborate on this, my "huge case" was literally a Delta/mala scum pair case and I even said at the bottom of that post that I want to vote for one of you. You are fabricating that I'm trying to get some random limmed to try and make me look bad

[Black]

I won't disagree that Andante probably shouldn't have claimed when she did but I also don't really see the wolf motive there. You could argue that maybe she was trying to get one of them to claim that she's lying but she wasn't even in danger of being limmed so I'm having a hard time seeing that as the optimal play for wolf!Andante

[Deltabreedy]

UNVOTE: Black

I really want to believe this is Town!Black with a confirmation bias issue. #810 is right that it's a dual argument, I read it just looking at the points really that were at me (I don't associate with Mala, I wouldn't pair us together so wasn't reading us together) so that's my bad; but I get the sense that you've completely closed yourself off to other arguments which sucks because I'm town, have had some strong points to make and both you and Andante have just shrugged them off with pretty poor justifications.

Looking at it I think a gambit with that theory, with Column A having a RB not a RC would be mathematically unlikely as a D2 scumclaim - I was thinking 'aloud' as it were because I hadn't considered it myself. I put a fairly hefty tinfoil hat on when looking at the chart.

[Deltabreedy]

I think that Andante lock!towning people is dangerous because:

- She has locktowned people I suspect
- It opens us up to losing the game D3 assuming a mislim today - if her mind is as certain on these people being town as it seems, then scum could just coast the rest of the game.

I think that Black has developed this theory alongside what Andante has said in terms of locktown, and needs to really approach the next 24 hours with an open mind.

I think that broadly, activity today has been poor, which has allowed scum the chance to hide and that we're getting swept up in 'need-to-lim-now' mania.

I implore everyone to revisit the arguments I made and tell me why my case on Blue is wrong.

[Black]

To me it seems like you are sowing seeds of doubt to undermine Andante's claim so you have more options in 5p. I'm guessing you and mala are planning to go looking for the other PR tonight? That way once Andante survives you'll have more fuel to push this

Ninja'd: I'm not trying to do what you did to skitter last game. I've engaged with your arguments and told you how I feel about them. You couldn't even really give skitter that courtesy last game tbh

I'm not sold on my solve but it's the strongest feeling I have in the game, so I'm going to need to see either you or mala flip to know if I'm even remotely close here

[Black]

@Delta do you SR mala?

[Black]

I'm not letting go of a scumread on Black when I get it. I've done that before.

UNVOTE: Black

I really want to believe this is Town!Black with a confirmation bias issue.

Your wishy-washy stance here says you are a wolf. I don't see you backing off of this so quickly unless you know I'm town

[Deltabreedy]

Jesus Christ you're seeing what you want to see here.

I think I could probably say that water is wet and you'd link it to scumhood. I'm literally here working to do some gamesolving and you're scumreading me for... what exactly? The most recent thing seems to be pointing out the fact that Andante isn't mechanically clear which is completely true. It's unlikely that she isn't town but that doesn't change that the way I progressed with that was to put my thoughts on the page. I got a bit excited because it was a new angle that I know I hadn't considered before. As we discussed I came down to earth and realised that yeah it was a long shot but god it was so refreshing to have a theory that worked and wasn't shouted down because 'meh, wasn't convincing' or 'meh, nah they're locktown'.

If you aren't sold on your solve, then why are you talking like Mala and I are 'planning to go looking for the other PR'? You may well be more polite about it than I was which in hindsight is something I regret, but you're doing damn near the exact same thing that I did when I tunnelled in on her which was to find scum reasoning behind every post because it fit nicely with my pet theory. You've done exactly the same here.

I am not scum. I couldn't give a toss about Mala because I don't neccessarily think they're town, but for me - not scum.

---

On a note, it really boils my pish that we've got so many inactive players in the game. Over half the game and it feels like I'm banging my head on a brick wall when only 3 people are posting much of substance daily. Just engage with me, tell me why my arguments are shit if they think they're shit, tell me why they're great if you agree! But by actively lurking I think it doesn't particularly matter what I say because I get the sense that this could have been a thread between just me, Black and Andante and been every bit as productive.

---

I'm not todays lim, and I think there is great reasons to put Kawaii, Blue, Chao and Mala all into the limpool. I think limming between Blue and Kawaii gives the best chance of hitting scum so there's where my vote goes.

VOTE: Blue

Ninja'd: I don't TR her, but I think there's significantly better lim targets today, and I'm not sheeping a mala lim just because Andante lock-towns my SR's or because you think I should. If I did and she flipped scum, it'd be 'He bussed his partner!'. If I did and she flipped town, it'd be 'He jumped on a mislim wagon, get him!'. I trust my scumhunting more than I do yours, probably because you've got me, a townie, in your limpool.

Ninja'd again: Yeah shock horror. Well, let's give it a go - "Water is Wet!"

[Deltabreedy]

I will be around between 0430 and 0830 tomorrow (8.5-12.5 hours from now) and possibly a brief moment around 1800 (roughly 2 hours from deadline). Beyond that, I'm out as far as D2 goes.

[Black]

Jesus Christ you're seeing what you want to see here

Mafia is all about trying to see through people's lies and bullshit. Don't act surprised or upset. You are notorious for tunneling people

[Black]

@Delta you have rode the fence on mala the entire game. You even had a mala/Blue theorysolve and you still null read her lol

Blue and Kawaii aren't going to be limmed today. So if you think it could be mala then I think you should vote for her

But of course you won't

[Deltabreedy]

And re-evaluating my read when there's a compelling case against my tunnel. Let's not leave that bit out because it directly contributed to your victory that game, and the ad hominem remark about being notorious for it does nothing for that post.

Ninja'd:

I've outlined my reasons for voting Blue and frankly I think the fact that I have 3/7 players pegged as more likely to be scum is a fairly good reason not to vote Mala.

Like I say though, if I vote Mala now and she were to flip scum, you'd probably just try to paint me (Town, btw) as a bussing partner - so there's no motivation for me to vote someone who by PoE and by gameplay I just don't see as likely scum in the current gamestate.

[Deltabreedy]

The post you're referring to mainly covers Blue so to say I've made a case on Mala is disingenuous - I went on in that post to explain that I thought Mala/Blue was less likely and that Mala's more recent play was giving off positive vibes. Since then, the game state has change and so has my views.

If you're going to scumread me for having progression in my reads then you would do well to take a notorious tunneller tag for yourself.

[Deltabreedy]

And thats me for today.

See you tomorrow - hopefully Kawaii and Blue show up, and hopefully Chao has something more to add over the next 24 hours.

[Black]

You can dance around not voting mala all you want. When she flips scum it'll be extremely obvious who her partner is