Newbie 2118 | Terrieresque! - Day 4

[fferyllt]

V1.11

Wirehaired Fox Terrier/Foxhound mix.

Alianna (3): Jasonwazza, Mewtaph, Umlaut
JasonWazza (3): T3, SeeEmpty, Alianna
Kowahbunga (1): Merlyn
Mewtaph (1): bewolkt

Not Voting (1):

Kowahbunga

With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate

Deadline: April 7, 8 PM US Eastern Time

Countdown: (expired on 2023-04-07 17:00:00)

Mod Notes

• 

[Alianna]

Alianna herself is playing a lot better than SSK did, but not in a way that I think is beyond a decent scum player's ability to replicate.

I don't dispute this. I'd argue I'm actually better at scum than I am at town, at least on D1 when I can't get caught for associatives.

[Kowahbunga]

VOTE: alianna

[Alianna]

I don't see how that makes it useless. A positive hit will give the information,

since the doctor should protect the tracker

and then the FN can be corroborated by someone else.

And still even under you're assumption that he could fakeclaim given there are double goons he would get counterclaimed in 2/3 cases (Cop and masons) which makes it still very risky

The bold is a false assumption,

Scum have no need to get rid of the tracker, as again, they can avoid the tracker (they choose who kills) so they can shoot elsewhere

, likewise,

if you are the doctor, you know that scum know there is a 50/50 shot of a doctor existing, and shouldn't shoot the tracker, so you should protect someone else (WIFOM but it's actually decent reasoning

).

This being the case,

no matter what the tracker sees, they are more likely to be seeing a Town PR, then a member of the Scum team,

and a negative result, the Tracker should assume there is a roleblocker.

Your making too many assumptions from a point of knowledge, which we don't have at this point.

As for the part about double goons, if Delta is being limed either way, 1/3 chance to free live a lim, and 2/3 chance to out the only other PR isn't a bad trade for your slot, considering you were already on the way to being limed.

This is the mech stuff I wanted to comment on.

This just isn't true. I suppose they can roleblock a tracker in 1/3 scenarios, but in the other two, they can still get caught.
Being able to decide who kills doesn't mean you won't get tracked. A tracker can account for that and track people they think are more likely to do the kill if scum.

The thing about WIFOM like this is that you can't definitively say "this is the better play." The better play depends on what the other side does. If we establish that the doctor will be on someone else, then the best play for scum is to shoot the tracker. I can, however, see scum using this argument maliciously to increase the likelihood that the tracker is safe to shoot.

Mathematically, it's not? In A2, they get roleblocked and thus there's a 0% chance they'll see anyone visit. In B1/B3, there is one other town role they could see and two other scum roles they could see, one if the rolecop performs the kill. It's equal at the least.

[Merlyn]

So, they have 8 available suspects to them. For the rest of town, however, if we believe that claim then we know 2 town- umlaut and ourselves. We have 7 available suspects to us. The 'chances' to hit scum are actually higher for everyone else.

Hate doing this, but since we are going basically full theory, this is actually dead wrong, your assumption basically boils down to umlaut has to be town because they claimed, that isn't always true, and can actually be worse (there's a non-0 chance that they are scum.)

Therefore there is a chance that you are just following scum, and will lim town 100% of the time.

This all depends on what odds you put on everything of course, but it basically makes this theory bad this early on.

I can see the sense in this. I don't know if I'm making it clear what bothers me is that this theory is what Kowah is saying he's basing his decisions on- he believes the claim, and so he's saying that umlaut is the most trustworthy person here, even over himself. I can't get my head around this tbh.

Kowahbunga

This isn't a townread as much as it is an anti-scumread (does that make any sense?), but I wouldn't be comfortable voting this today. I decided I'd do some meta and their D1 here drew a lot of parallels with their D1 in this towngame.

I really appreciate you finding and showing this game. I have to admit that that's exactly the way kowah is playing in this game too. I'd be really curious to see if that's how he plays every game, regardless of alignment.

That being said, Kowah- seeing this post of yours in the other game really raises my blood pressure. Town lost. You said you felt you played awful. Why would your strategy work here when it didn't work there?

I hate that you've come into two different games and said, "I know what the rules are and how the game is played, but I don't like it. I would like to play this other very specific way that we definitely won't do here and since I can't have that, I will just not engage." Is someone out there forcing you to play? Why not go mod your type of game instead?

@Merlyn - A couple of things to address here.
1. Klick's thread only said that a situation where town is losing was a clear example of when to use the strategy, not that it was the only example.
2. I think it's plausible that Kowah could read that thread and decide to follow the strategy themselves without organizing the whole town. Especially since they expect people won't agree with their opinions (which is true).
[/quote]

This is plausible, I will admit that. But I don't think it's likely.

[Merlyn]

Apologies, that broken quote is from Alianna.

[Merlyn]

I do see that I'm tunneling a bit here, and I would rather change my vote that have no elimination happen. But I didn't think SSK was scummy and I don't see anything from Alianna that makes me change my mind.

[Alianna]

What are your current reads on Jason and Mewtaph?

[JasonWazza]

This just isn't true. I suppose they can roleblock a tracker in 1/3 scenarios, but in the other two, they can still get caught.
Being able to decide who kills doesn't mean you won't get tracked. A tracker can account for that and track people they think are more likely to do the kill if scum.

it doesn't mean you can't get tracked, but it's not like our trackers reads aren't out in the open is it?

Like to assume that a tracker can track someone they think is more likely to do the kill if scum, what your actually saying, is that the tracker has to track their town reads.

The thing about WIFOM like this is that you can't definitively say "this is the better play." The better play depends on what the other side does. If we establish that the doctor will be on someone else, then the best play for scum is to shoot the tracker. I can, however, see scum using this argument maliciously to increase the likelihood that the tracker is safe to shoot.

Reminder, Scum don't know if there is or isn't a doctor in this scenario, shooting tracker and being stopped means they have the potential to miss out on a kill and enable an extra lim, there is literally no benefit to risking that possibility.

Now we get to the point that Scum shouldn't shoot the claimed tracker, they can also play around a doctor outside of the tracker even more, even if you assume the doctor and the scum both avoid the tracker, then scum can still avoid said doctor, while still taking their shot freely.

Mathematically, it's not? In A2, they get roleblocked and thus there's a 0% chance they'll see anyone visit. In B1/B3, there is one other town role they could see and two other scum roles they could see, one if the rolecop performs the kill. It's equal at the least.

Your assuming that if they actually pick a scum member, that said scum member automatically takes whatever action the scum team does, this is a huge fallacy.

P-Edit:

I do see that I'm tunneling a bit here, and I would rather change my vote that have no elimination happen. But I didn't think SSK was scummy and I don't see anything from Alianna that makes me change my mind.

I agree, but i also think that regardless a town flip on the SSK slot, gets us enough info, and is better then a no lim.

[Alianna]

Kowahbunga

This isn't a townread as much as it is an anti-scumread (does that make any sense?), but I wouldn't be comfortable voting this today. I decided I'd do some meta and their D1 here drew a lot of parallels with their D1 in this towngame.

I really appreciate you finding and showing this game. I have to admit that that's exactly the way kowah is playing in this game too. I'd be really curious to see if that's how he plays every game, regardless of alignment.

That got me curious too so I had a look. It appears that their playstyle in this game is something they've gone back to after a few other games. I don't see it so much in the towngame after, and their next couple of games were replace-ins so that's a little different. This game that just finished is their only completed scumgame. I'd say it's different, but that game was also quite inactive, so the gamestate may have had an impact. You can judge it for yourself though. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

[Alianna]

This just isn't true. I suppose they can roleblock a tracker in 1/3 scenarios, but in the other two, they can still get caught.
Being able to decide who kills doesn't mean you won't get tracked. A tracker can account for that and track people they think are more likely to do the kill if scum.

it doesn't mean you can't get tracked, but it's not like our trackers reads aren't out in the open is it?

Like to assume that a tracker can track someone they think is more likely to do the kill if scum, what your actually saying, is that the tracker has to track their town reads.

I think it's a little more nuanced than that. There's the possibility of both scum being in the tracker's TRs/SRs and the possibility that the flip changes the tracker's reads.
It's also possible to think someone is towny at the same time as thinking they have decent scum equity. If I were tracker here, I might actually want to go for someone like bewolkt.
There's also a WIFOM aspect to that. The point is that it's not that simple.

The thing about WIFOM like this is that you can't definitively say "this is the better play." The better play depends on what the other side does. If we establish that the doctor will be on someone else, then the best play for scum is to shoot the tracker. I can, however, see scum using this argument maliciously to increase the likelihood that the tracker is safe to shoot.

Reminder, Scum don't know if there is or isn't a doctor in this scenario, shooting tracker and being stopped means they have the potential to miss out on a kill and enable an extra lim, there is literally no benefit to risking that possibility.

Now we get to the point that Scum shouldn't shoot the claimed tracker, they can also play around a doctor outside of the tracker even more, even if you assume the doctor and the scum both avoid the tracker, then scum can still avoid said doctor, while still taking their shot freely.

I don't think you actually understand what I said. I don't know how to explain better than I already did.

Mathematically, it's not? In A2, they get roleblocked and thus there's a 0% chance they'll see anyone visit. In B1/B3, there is one other town role they could see and two other scum roles they could see, one if the rolecop performs the kill. It's equal at the least.

Your assuming that if they actually pick a scum member, that said scum member automatically takes whatever action the scum team does, this is a huge fallacy.

I don't understand what you're trying to say here. Can you explain?

[Merlyn]

What are your current reads on Jason and Mewtaph?

Jason is one of my strongest townreads. I the very, very beginning I wondered if I was seeing two scum bus each other because the fight between him and dominated the whole game, but I started to see it as a town-on-town fight by about page 3. I know this is gut, but I just don't believe scum would get as swept up in the tunnel the way Jason and Delta did on each other. To me it's clear it was just two players with a spectacular personality clash, and thus NAI. I do also think Jason rubbed people the wrong way in the beginning of this game, but that's in the past- he's apologized, totally changed his attitude, and I find his posts insightful and focused on scum hunting in other places than the delta/umlaut slot.

Mewtaph is still leaning scum to me. Reading their posts in iso, I see clearly that they're good at not committing to much. 298 is a good example: this is their readlist, which they haven't updated, and it's all based on other people's opinions. He was also a little OMGUS to my pressure vote, which I didn't like, but I think town can do that too. I do have to say they have been consistent in suspecting the SSK/Alianna slot, it doesn't feel like they jumped on the wagon out of nowhere.

[JasonWazza]

Mathematically, it's not? In A2, they get roleblocked and thus there's a 0% chance they'll see anyone visit. In B1/B3, there is one other town role they could see and two other scum roles they could see, one if the rolecop performs the kill. It's equal at the least.

Your assuming that if they actually pick a scum member, that said scum member automatically takes whatever action the scum team does, this is a huge fallacy.

I don't understand what you're trying to say here. Can you explain?

Let's start with pure randomness in a 4 player game.

What exists is the tracker, another Town PR, and 2 scum.

Tracker tracks one of the 3 randomly, and Scum coin flip to decide who shoots.

1/3 chance to track other PR, 2/3 chance to track Scum.
1/2 chance that you track the scum that isn't doing the kill.

So this is equal chance.

but let's start making some actual assumptions based on reality.
1. not everyone is equal, it's possible that (for example) 1 scum, and the PR are the more likely to be scum, according to the tracker.
2. The scum team know this, thus with this assumption known they aim to avoid the tracker, by simply choosing the other scum member.

Sure there are other possibilities, like the tracker changing their reads, but are their reads going to change so drastically that the tracker will always magically track the Scum member doing the kill over the town PR (who is doing their action always regardless) in reality, this doesn't happen, scum are going to have a higher chance of avoiding the tracker then 50%, therefore, the Town PR who is always doing their stuff, is more likely to be tracked, then the scum members.

The assumption you have to make to make this not real, is that somehow the tracker is able to keep tracking the scum team evenly, which isn't possible, unless the tracker is actually using randomness over their actual reads, and in reality this ends up being suboptimal.

[Alianna]

All of that makes sense, except scum have power roles.

[Alianna]

Are you arguing that scum in B shouldn't use their rolecop to find a possible doc/FN?

[Alianna]

(FN gets outed anyway because that's literally their job, but I'm talking more about a doctor here)

[Umlaut]

If there is a doctor I definitely want them on me, it's our best chance of having a track result tomorrow.

If there is a jailkeeper we need to wifom whether they'll be on me or someone else. Unless we hit scum today, in which case they should definitely target their suspects.

[Umlaut]

Though I guess in the latter case I get roleblocked anyway

[Kowahbunga]

he believes the claim, and so he's saying that umlaut is the most trustworthy person here, even over himself. I can't get my head around this tbh.

It's not that I think they're more trustworthy than me, but I know I'm not being mislead by listening to them, which gives me confidence to follow them. From my POV, the rest of the town is also not being mislead by them, and while I know I'm not misleading town, none of the town know this.

[Alianna]

They're not misleading you, but they're still wrong. You don't know that though.

[Umlaut]

Kowah, you can always try to sell me on Alianna town, if you believe that, instead of just mutely going along with what I say.

[Merlyn]

That got me curious too so I had a look. It appears that their playstyle in this game is something they've gone back to after a few other games. I don't see it so much in the towngame after, and their next couple of games were replace-ins so that's a little different. This game that just finished is their only completed scumgame. I'd say it's different, but that game was also quite inactive, so the gamestate may have had an impact. You can judge it for yourself though. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

In just skimming I can see he playing quite differently as scum, indeed. Maybe you've made a good catch here, I have to think about it more.

I did notice this quote from him in the scumgame, though:

Spoiler: quote

@

Kowahbunga

I meant to ask you a question earlier though I probably forgot. I was wondering if you think it's fair for me to draw analogies between your Andante read in the Mini Normal you just completed and your Cephrir read in this one?

While I can't stop you from comparing games, I personally don't. I think there's a way to put me in the same situation for the posts and reads I made from one game to the next. My reactions in this game will inherently be different than my reactions in a previous game because they're two completely different games. I will see different things from game to game and respond in different ways. I don't expect to ever play two games the same and I go into each game imagining the same of everyone else. I will never use a previous game of someone's to make a decision in this game about them. I can understand why people rely on it more in D1 and it's a common topic. I just think it's poor logic though.

So maybe playstyle is simply a null tell for kowah.

[JasonWazza]

Are you arguing that scum in B shouldn't use their rolecop to find a possible doc/FN?

I mean, why does the scum need to actually find the Doc/FN?

[Alianna]

What are your current reads on Jason and Mewtaph?

Jason is one of my strongest townreads. I the very, very beginning I wondered if I was seeing two scum bus each other because the fight between him and dominated the whole game, but I started to see it as a town-on-town fight by about page 3. I know this is gut, but I just don't believe scum would get as swept up in the tunnel the way Jason and Delta did on each other. To me it's clear it was just two players with a spectacular personality clash, and thus NAI. I do also think Jason rubbed people the wrong way in the beginning of this game, but that's in the past- he's apologized, totally changed his attitude, and I find his posts insightful and focused on scum hunting in other places than the delta/umlaut slot.

That's interesting, I might re-read his ISO with that perspective in mind.

Mewtaph is still leaning scum to me. Reading their posts in iso, I see clearly that they're good at not committing to much. 298 is a good example: this is their readlist, which they haven't updated, and it's all based on other people's opinions. He was also a little OMGUS to my pressure vote, which I didn't like, but I think town can do that too. I do have to say they have been consistent in suspecting the SSK/Alianna slot, it doesn't feel like they jumped on the wagon out of nowhere.

I don't have a read there. I'd be down to wagon the slot if you want to do that though.

[Alianna]

Are you arguing that scum in B shouldn't use their rolecop to find a possible doc/FN?

I mean, why does the scum need to actually find the Doc/FN?

To kill them? Who wants a doctor alive?