Open 876 - Fire and Ice - Postgame

[osuka]

ok so i wanna give myself time to digest all of this nonsense and in light of 438 im gonna UNVOTE:

there might be more to this than meets the eye

[osuka]

and another pagetop snipe for the away team

[usesPython]

That vote and Python's willingness to sheep Kokichi's meta read after remembering the one game we played with Black had her as mafia are both sticking out to me as particularly fishy.

Also in case it wasn't blatantly obvious when I meta'd Dragon despite never playing with him; I spectate the newbie queue, so I have more than just the one scum!Black game to go off of

-A

[IceDragon70]

Okay so I read usesPython's ISO.

My thoughts:
-push on me felt a bit scummy.
-flip flop on Black could be scummy.
-HOWEVER, their explanation of the flip-flop and their subsequent push on Black felt quite townie on their mindset and tone.
Overall read is null-town.

[IceDragon70]

Okay I tried to post in catchup style but I feel it's gonna take too long to cover over 10 pages.
So I am just gonna ISO the 3-4 players that stuck out the most for me and see whichever of them I wanna vote now.
If ya'll want to point me to a specific development or post feel free to do it though.

208 (explained in 268) and 294 (for the start of the black push) are the big stuff that happened since then

222 for mech info

Let me read those now.

[IceDragon70]

Oh no you got Nameless to mech post

-A

It's actually optimal to lim every day. Since scum targetting the same person stops the nightkill that leaves a

G

/(

T

+

G

) chance of shooting the other groupscum, and a 1/(

T

² + 2

T

) chance of both targetting the same townie if a townie is getting shot

The chance of limming scum is

S

/(P - 1)

Plugging in the numbers that means that for now a lim gives an expected result of 8/12 chance of limming town whereas the chance of scum nightkilling town (Ignoring any doctor plays) is 9/11 - 1/99 = 80/99

Spoiler: What the letters mean

P - number of players alive

T

- number of town alive

S

- number of scum alive

G

- number of enemy groupscum alive

-Nameless

Ugh, don't do mech while tired; the math for the nightkills is off by like 0.5% because I didn't properly adjust the "same target = no nk" and didn't account for the doctor. Just listing out every possible action assuming a No Lim gives the following nightkill chances:

Town Doctor

: 240/2484 (9.66%)

Vanilla Townie

: 1760/2484 (70.85%)

Fire Mafia Goon

: 242/2484 (9.74%)

Ice Mafia Goon

: 242/2484 (9.74%)

Which when combined gives the chances of:

Town

: 2000/2484 (80.52%)

Mafia

: 484/2484 (19.48%)

Compared to the elim chances (

Town Doctor

can't get elimed because they just claim):

Vanilla Townie

: 8/12

Fire Mafia Goon

: 2/12

Ice Mafia Goon

: 2/12

Which when combined gives the chances of

Town

: 8/12 (66.67%)

Mafia

: 4/12 (33.33%)

Whatever. Now it's your responsibility to translate the mech for us >:(

thats cool and all but can u explain it in laymans terms.

It's more optimal to get scum killed through elims instead of nightkills and the reason this math needed to be done at all is because the mechanic where scum targeting the same person stops the nightkill will only ever get triggered on a town nightkill (since if it triggers on a scum nightkill it means that scum targeted themselves)

-Nameless

Btw are you a hydra or what? Cause I saw you playing im the Newbie queue where hydras aren't allowed, but you sign your posts.

[IceDragon70]

Also isn't it obvious it's optimal to eliminate every night in multiball?

[IceDragon70]

I mean every day.

[usesPython]

Btw are you a hydra or what? Cause I saw you playing im the Newbie queue where hydras aren't allowed, but you sign your posts.

We're plural, it's basically an irl hydra. There's a plurality thread in the speakeasy if you wanna know more

-A

Also isn't it obvious it's optimal to eliminate every night in multiball?

The mechanic where both scum targetting the same person stops the nightkill means that scum are more likely to get shot at night (Because scum aren't gonna target themselves). It's not strong enough to offset the inherently lower chances of scum shooting other groupscum in this case but if the effect was stronger then No Eliming every day could have legitimately been the best strategy

-A

[usesPython]

Also isn't it obvious it's optimal to eliminate every night in multiball?

The mechanic where both scum targetting the same person stops the nightkill means that scum are more likely to get shot at night (Because scum aren't gonna target themselves). It's not strong enough to offset the inherently lower chances of scum shooting other groupscum in this case but if the effect was stronger then No Eliming every day could have legitimately been the best strategy

-A

To make it more explicit, the "same target = no nightkill" rule is functionally equivalent to having every townie be 7.5% Bulletproof if there's no elim d1. If that 7.5% was instead say 75%, you can start to see how no limming might be more optimal

-A

[usesPython]

I have been informed that it's not actually 7.5% bulletproof because the correct way to calculate the bulletproof percent is to compare the number of townkills with and without the nightkill rule. It's apparently 9.42% (208/2208) bulletproof.

-A

[The Bulge]

Also glad to see you're ignoring 223 when you're just straight up wrong in 247, explains a lot

-Nameless

223 is entirely based on false premises/nonsensical assumptions (ie, scum shooting at random, doctor healing at random, groupscum have =rand accuracy, whatever youre saying about "full control over the lim"?) and your other posts considering nolims are pointless bc why would we ever do that. these mechposts are a waste of time at best and an active distraction from any actual scumhunting/townplay at worst

[usesPython]

Also glad to see you're ignoring 223 when you're just straight up wrong in 247, explains a lot

-Nameless

223 is entirely based on false premises/nonsensical assumptions (ie, scum shooting at random, doctor healing at random, groupscum have =rand accuracy, whatever youre saying about "full control over the lim"?) and your other posts considering nolims are pointless bc why would we ever do that. these mechposts are a waste of time at best and an active distraction from any actual scumhunting/townplay at worst

You've never done serious mechanical analysis of setups and it really fucking shows. Random actions and random accuracy is the norm when it comes to actually calculating EV and no shit no limming should be considered when there's a rule that's mechanically equivalent to "All townies are X% Bulletproof"

-Nameless

[usesPython]

Actually you know what, since you're apparently so good at mech why don't you tell the rest of us how you'd actually calculate the EV for limming vs no limming if actions aren't random and reads aren't random.

-Nameless

[The Bulge]

your other posts considering nolims are pointless bc why would we ever do that. these mechposts are a waste of time at best and an active distraction from any actual scumhunting/townplay at worst

[The Bulge]

the black wagon stinks and every individual vote on it stinks even worse

Out of RVS on page 3. I love it

I don't have an issue with Dragon's 45 nor do I have an issue with the wagon that formed off of it

My only issue atm is HPE's 54 where he says he's on board to vote Dragon but doesn't want to turn it into a wagon?

Oh no.. You finally flipped scum didn't you

VOTE: Black

No. Tell me, both of you, why it and others should.

Talking points. Gauging how people respond to pressure. Y'know all that good stuff

I didn't think you would want to join us. You seem to holster your vote like it's going to blow someone's face off if you use it

Votes? Wagons? VCA? You want it, it's yours my friend!
VOTE: Black

Actually wait I just realized I only have experience with scum!Black and she's giving off her usual vibes.

VOTE: Black

-A

I don't really think python "main hunting" is AI though

Convenient of you to ignore my first point. Using meta as the foundation of your vote is not town behavior

Python's mainhunting was explicitly used to provide meta to base their Dragon vote on. If using meta as the foundation of a vote is not town behaviour, then you should think it's AI, isn't it?

VOTE: Black

[usesPython]

If actions and reads aren't random then the double target = no nightkill rule is even more likely to go into effect, go do the damn math if you're gonna hold these positions

-Nameless

[The Bulge]

This one is going to hit up Black's ISO in DN shortly because ok yeah a bit of an actual scumread is starting to form, but we'll see.

Okay first big red flag on Black (or black flag, it guesses) is that none of her DN solving effort really seems to be present. Maybe that's just a consequence of how DN's setup was, but... This setup is kinda similar in it's extra emphasis on day-time analysis to find scum since there's no investigatives, which even

DN

had one!

a how-to guide for confirmation bias

[The Bulge]

If actions and reads aren't random then the double target = no nightkill rule is even more likely to go into effect, go do the damn math if you're gonna hold these positions

-Nameless

my position is that your math is a waste of time and a distraction from actually doing anything useful, and also that no limming is a stupid idea

[usesPython]

If you think making sure you're taking +EV actions is a waste of time then I've got nothing more to say to you really

-Nameless

[The Bulge]

i am pretty sure voting to kill scum the only way we can is a +ev action, thx for checking tho

[usesPython]

i am pretty sure voting to kill scum the only way we can is a +ev action, thx for checking tho

Didn't realize scum are incapable of shooting other scum at night and that town can't be limmed during the day, thanks for clarifying

-Nameless

[usesPython]

Bulge when's the last time you played multiball?

-A

[The Bulge]

are u capable of making game-relevant posts as scum?

[usesPython]

are u capable of making game-relevant posts as scum?

Yes

-A

Bulge when's the last time you played multiball?

-A

Cause like it's pretty blatantly obvious you're still scumhunting like it's regular mafia without ever reconsidering why the tells you're using worked there in the first place.

my position is that your math is a waste of time and a distraction from actually doing anything useful, and also that no limming is a stupid idea

Great cool you think this, how about you actually run it to the logical conclusion. It's +EV for everyone but the groupscum being limmed to lim scum, the only scum motivation to "waste time and distract from actually doing anything useful" is if it stops groupscum being limmed. How about you actually go back to those posts and see the only person being pushed then was Drew who's wagon I immediately got on after the posts and get out of your shit tunnel

-A