Mini 2297 | Conception | Postgame

[IceDragon70]

Okay anyway, I am planning to do an analysis of the wagons from yesterday and then we see who could potentially be scum.

Just a note though: assuming 2v2v9, would it be dangerous to lim benediction over Malediction today?
Probably not but I am kinda tired rn so I'll do the math later or something.

Spoiler: i did the math

assuming 2v2v9. 1 green, 2 red, and 8 blue remaining.

d2 ---> lim green ---> green gone, 2v8. assuming 1 kill per night, the game proceeds as singleball with 2 scum and 2 safe mislims. third mislim is a loss. elo arrives on d5 at the earliest.

d2 ---> lim red ---> 1v1v8. assuming 2 kills per night that only hit town and we don't yeet any scum, d5 is still endgame but it's a weird prisoner's dilemma and the game basically becomes wifom city from then on. and this is role madness so it's even wifomier lol. if the green factional ability isn't a kill, it's a little more complicated.

wiping benediction off the board is better by virtue of being more straightforward, but i don't think a red scum lim is bad. it's just swingier and more complicated.

p-edit: feysal also did the math but in a less complicated and less mathematical way.

Thanks for the math, that does make sense.

[Aisa]

@IceDragon

Spoiler:

Don’t like any of the current wagons?

I don't either tbh
I'm gonna finish catching up but if I don't see a wagon I like I'll have tonvote goldfish as well.

Uhuuh can't expect a "I'll have to vote Goldfish" to not catch my eye! Why would my slot have been the vote of choice?

Honestly just a random pick because I was townreading most people except them, and wanted to basically start a fresh wagon that might generate more content.

To... generate more content? You made that post a little more than 24 hours before the deadline if my maths is not wrong. That's not the time to generate more content, that's a time to eliminate scum!

[Abnegation]

to be fair, there was only one wagon at the time dragon answered, and that wagon was dragon.

[Aisa]

Oh, right, I knew that at some point but forgot

[Aisa]

Spoiler: fluffposting

so i'm kind of annoyed. i am only 30% done with that readslist that i was talking about, but my brain doesn't like to wake up until, like, 9 pm, and caffeine is not doing it for me today.
i know what to do. more caffeine!

What is the other 70% that needs to be done?

meh, i don't think a reads wall is even worth posting. i haven't found anything revolutionary and i don't think i will.

Well that's relatable.
I asked because my approach to making a readslist would be to explain the reads I have and call everyone else null and call it a day. Yours sounds like more work than it's worth, yeah. However, I was looking forward to seeing you take some positions this game, so if you felt like explaining a few reads at some point you would have a keen reader.

honestly, i think the best play right now is to just yeet kawaii (because i think that's what's going to happen anyway) and re-evaluate tomorrow with more info. this game feels a little stuck.

I suppose this is a position!
I don't disagree, but trying to avoid a situation in which we chain multiple eliminations this way. And "kawaii is what's going to happen anyway" is like, true but also a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Deep down I know you're right and I don't even hate it as a vote buuut I will continue to talk about other slots until it looks inevitable

[furtiveglance]

Kawaii's elimination is as inevitable as Thanos

[Abnegation]

i don't know who we go on after kawaii, definitely not trying to chain executions after that, but i have a general idea of how things go depending on the flip.

kawaii blue ---> this is bad. curse of multiball means scum are hunting each other, so we basically just have to look deeper into rautherdir associatives and/or hope the power roles do something useful.

kawaii red ---> this is less bad because now we have two sets of associatives to look at and we can speculate about how the scum are playing it (are they trying to kill the other scum? keep them alive?) now that their teams are likely reduced to one member.

kawaii green ---> this is likely and also good because the curse of multiball is lifted. now that scum have to fake scumhunt like singleball, some people should theoretically start looking a little scummier.

if it's not 2v2v9, then obviously none of this applies.

[Abnegation]

might go look back at those reads and post a couple things if i think they're worth it.

[Aisa]

Kawaii's elimination is as inevitable as Thanos

I don't know what Thanos is so I'm immune to your mind games

Also FWIW just had a little chat with myself and convinced myself to townread Abnegation.

furtive towncase upcoming, don't you all worry.

[Abnegation]

i kind of want you to explain your progression on me.

[Narration]

Flavor Leaf replaces BlueSnakelet.

[Abnegation]

might go look back at those reads and post a couple things if i think they're worth it.

you know what, i can't resist the chance to use pretty rainbow colours, so the tl;dr is this:
-

actiondan

makes way too much sense to be scum and i'll take the L if they are
-

icedragon70

is clear of green because of mech
-

enchant

is also clear of green because of their interactions with

rautherdir

- both of those are also townleans red-wise
-

hugir

is a townlean because idk vibes lol, red/green equity is equal if they're scum
-

bluesnakelet

is pretty much dead null and we need a replacement
-

kawaiikame

sus amogus
- i didn't get to isoing

feysal

,

aisa

,

furtiveglance

, or

the keeper

reads are listed in order of town to scum. there is a logic to the colours though.

[Aisa]

Ok, furtive townread

Everyone is gonna have an easier time understanding if I just quote this post from a previous game.

Well we're not both guards

This is from a game in January. Here he is talking to me and this is the very first post he made in our neighbourhood. Guards = mafia.
I remember seeing this at the time and thinking "huh, this already seems a bit towny". There's clearly this strong implication of a townie perspective, knowing that he's town so we can't both be mafia. But it's also so casual. I just thought the vibe was more likely to be town. Didn't say anything at the time obviously, because, uh, way too random even for me.

Unfortunately for you all I turned out to be right so I now believe this tell is worth something. This game there's this, which is similar:

You're definitely making me think

We haven't played me good you bad before I don't think

Sorry this is so self-referential
---
Could have sworn there were more posts to which I could apply that tell ^ but I misremembered

Some more generalities quickly: doesn't seem like he's pushing an agenda, seemed quite straightforward about not knowing who to vote yesterday which seems like an angle scum rarely take, vibes again - the posts in which he is replying to other people or justifying something he's done don't seem overwrought. I've had luck townreading him for making certain types of jokes in the past - I don't know if this is still accurate but in my head posts like this one are classic town!furtive.

[IceDragon70]

I do like Abnegation's analysis about Kawaii in 731, and I also thought Kawaii was relatively scummy at the end of D1.
Since there's no better wagon and I don't have any major suspicions, I am down to join the wagon.
VOTE: Kawaii

I will note however that I think we should work on more scumhunting and content generation, because the game almost feels a bit lethargic rn. Hopefully on Saturday I will be more available (this had been an extremely busy week for me), and then I'll see what I can get done with some ISO's and analysis.

Pedit: will read Aisa's wall tomorrow. Good night.

[Abnegation]

what i'm arguing is that i believe we will be better able to do that scumhunting and content generation after a kawaii flip.

[Abnegation]

mind you, we'll see if the replacement changes anything. sometimes those shake things up.

[Aisa]

i kind of want you to explain your progression on me.

Suppose I kinda brought this one upon myself by talking about it, huh?

Skimmed the game before replacing in and thought you were obvtown
Read the game when I replaced in and still thought you were a bit towny, but also psyched myself a bit into thinking that maybe I didn't remember your scum game in ChatGPT as well as I thought, also you seemed to do well as scum and people can manipulate their meta so I needed to be wary of you anyway
Was talking to myself earlier about the differences between your scum game as I understand it and your play this game, and they just sounded too fundamental to continue justifying my lukewarm stance on you

"What are the differences?" I still haven't looked back at ChatGPT but in my head,
- I get less of a sense that you're trying to warp things in order to fit your narrative. I have mostly approved of the way you assess evidence and the validity of certain tells and stuff like that.
- You seem to have more of an investigative mindset. You seem pretty chatty.
- I think I maybe sense a bit more implicit paranoia? Not sure I'm not making this up, but I think there were a couple moments in ChatGPT where you told people that you were paranoid ("This player seems towny for this but it could also be scum, aah"), while here I think that doubt or uncertainty could be behind some of your posting but you're not making a point out of telling everyone.

There are still things I'm watching out for but obviously not going to just tell you what they are

[Aisa]

Ok last thing before I go but just so you're all aware I'm in a neighbourhood with Kawaii. We were added to it at the start of today (Day 2). I didn't cause this. Kawaii says they didn't cause this. So we don't know what caused this. I note that Goldfish and Kawaii were the two slots with the lowest post count at the end of Day 1.

Kawaii posted a little in the hood around the same time they last posted here, nothing super revolutionary. I had mentioned that the hood could possibly be useful but that I was not sure how to read Kawaii. They replied that yes, it could be useful, they were aware that it was not easy to read them at that moment, and hopefully they would be able to be a little more active.

This doesn't really affect my view of the Kawaii wagon, like sure it would be cool if I got to do some scumhunting in the hood, but I'm mainly not joining the Kawaii wagon just to be contrarian and to talk about other slots for a bit

[Abnegation]

i kind of want you to explain your progression on me.

Suppose I kinda brought this one upon myself by talking about it, huh?

Skimmed the game before replacing in and thought you were obvtown
Read the game when I replaced in and still thought you were a bit towny, but also psyched myself a bit into thinking that maybe I didn't remember your scum game in ChatGPT as well as I thought, also you seemed to do well as scum and people can manipulate their meta so I needed to be wary of you anyway
Was talking to myself earlier about the differences between your scum game as I understand it and your play this game, and they just sounded too fundamental to continue justifying my lukewarm stance on you

"What are the differences?" I still haven't looked back at ChatGPT but in my head,
- I get less of a sense that you're trying to warp things in order to fit your narrative. I have mostly approved of the way you assess evidence and the validity of certain tells and stuff like that.
- You seem to have more of an investigative mindset. You seem pretty chatty.
- I think I maybe sense a bit more implicit paranoia? Not sure I'm not making this up, but I think there were a couple moments in ChatGPT where you told people that you were paranoid (

"This player seems towny for this but it could also be scum, aah"

), while here I think that doubt or uncertainty could be behind some of your posting but you're not making a point out of telling everyone.

There are still things I'm watching out for but obviously not going to just tell you what they are

just so you know, that kind of paranoia is nai for me. i've said things like the highlighted as both alignments.

[Abnegation]

Ok last thing before I go but just so you're all aware I'm in a neighbourhood with Kawaii. We were added to it at the start of today (Day 2). I didn't cause this. Kawaii says they didn't cause this. So we don't know what caused this. I note that Goldfish and Kawaii were the two slots with the lowest post count at the end of Day 1.

Kawaii posted a little in the hood around the same time they last posted here, nothing super revolutionary. I had mentioned that the hood could possibly be useful but that I was not sure how to read Kawaii. They replied that yes, it could be useful, they were aware that it was not easy to read them at that moment, and hopefully they would be able to be a little more active.

This doesn't really affect my view of the Kawaii wagon, like sure it would be cool if I got to do some scumhunting in the hood, but I'm mainly not joining the Kawaii wagon just to be contrarian and to talk about other slots for a bit

interesting. i don't think it changes my view of the kawaii wagon either though.

[Enchant]

might go look back at those reads and post a couple things if i think they're worth it.

you know what, i can't resist the chance to use pretty rainbow colours, so the tl;dr is this:
-

actiondan

makes way too much sense to be scum and i'll take the L if they are
-

icedragon70

is clear of green because of mech
-

enchant

is also clear of green because of their interactions with

rautherdir

- both of those are also townleans red-wise
-

hugir

is a townlean because idk vibes lol, red/green equity is equal if they're scum
-

bluesnakelet

is pretty much dead null and we need a replacement
-

kawaiikame

sus amogus
- i didn't get to isoing

feysal

,

aisa

,

furtiveglance

, or

the keeper

reads are listed in order of town to scum. there is a logic to the colours though.

Should't you clear The Keeper from being automatically

[Abnegation]

keeper is clear of green, forgot to write that in but i did put them in a different colour.

[ActionDan]

I like the pretty rgb color spectrum. Give me moreeee.

Sadly it will become irrelevant shortly

[Abnegation]

@mod

- kawaii is in need of a prod.

[Flavor Leaf]

have not read the game yet, who wants me to sheep them