large normal 243: lindOVER

[GuyInFreezer]

I drank some beers but here are some quick thoughts:

Vig should shoot Andante to remove the noise and we should lim today one of those who were not on Kitty's wagon.

Because Kitty flipped BP

Why are you so confident there might a vig to solve this for us?

Besides, under your theory of 1 person bussing Kitty, why is Andante not a prime suspect there as the 4th vote and someone who's been seemingly vocal about how she wasn't actually a fan of the wagon?

[GuyInFreezer]

Because Kitty flipped BP*

[Venmar]

Oh tbh I didn't even notice that

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: eiralox

[GuyInFreezer]

I prob need to organize my reads at some point

[schadd_]

sheepsaysmeep replaces Eiralox.

replacing Greeting.

[NJAC]

I drank some beers but here are some quick thoughts:

Vig should shoot Andante to remove the noise and we should lim today one of those who were not on Kitty's wagon.

Why vig when we can fade

I think Andante would be a good vig target. Vig would know that he/she is not hitting a power role accidentally.

But, it was just a suggestion. It's just that I prefer not to see you and Andante flooding the thread again, endlessly accusing each other, convincing others and spamming here and there.

The noise I'm referring to is not only coming from her, but also from you, especially when you tunnel and repeat one thousand times what you already said.

[NJAC]

Like, assuming one scum decided to bus Kitty, we would have 1 scum on that wagon and 2 scum outside of it.

That means the odds of limming scum are 1/9 on Kitty's wagon, and 2/7 outside of it.

We have a much bigger chance of limming scum if we vote one of those 7.

Why do you think only 1 scum bussed? This is a lot of assumptions, I don’t think there’s any strong merit to say that for sure

It may also happen that not a single scum bussed, I was just considering some probable scenarios. But I think it's very likely that at most one scum bussed. So I was doing some statistic based on that.

[NJAC]

That’s a better chance at hitting scum if we had no reasons and was throwing darts blindfolded when we had a whole giant day of info to pull from.

I think Andante is almost obviously scum at this point, so from my pov, the best chance at hitting scum is voting Andante.

I never said we shouldn't take in consideration the whole giant day of info.

From those seven players that I mentioned we should pick those who, based on what happened on day 1, and considering everything else, are more likely scum.

If you are so convinced about Andante being scum, then go ahead and keep doing what you are doing, I won't stop you.

[NJAC]

I drank some beers but here are some quick thoughts:

Vig should shoot Andante to remove the noise and we should lim today one of those who were not on Kitty's wagon.

Why are you so confident there might a vig to solve this for us?

Besides, under your theory of 1 person bussing Kitty, why is Andante not a prime suspect there as the 4th vote and someone who's been seemingly vocal about how she wasn't actually a fan of the wagon?

GIF already answered that. It's very likely that we have a vig, but we don't really know.

Andante could perfectly be a prime suspect, if you want to pursue that then go ahead. I was just talking about what was statistically best for us.

[Bub Bidderskins]

I don't think I've played many (any?) games with a vig, so I'm not sure if there's theory on this, but my gut is if there's someone out here who's scummy we should just lim them and not rely on coaxing a vig kill. It's entirely possible we don't have a vig at all -- there were no N1 kills after all.

Limming Andante is the play here.

[Skygazer]

im not really sure if i wanna compost andante

[Skygazer]

god i slept in like a billion years

[Enchant]

Hardly realistic but funny:
Both Mafia and SK attacked mason who was saved by jailkeeper.

[Flavor Leaf]

Vig is better off shooting a no content slot over a high content slot.

[Flavor Leaf]

In case people missed Andante case.

Spoiler:

Here's some meta reasonings, but the case, at its core, isn't meta based. I would say it's Tactics and Objectively based that is further supported with some clear cut meta from an exact situation with TownMe going after ScumThem.

viewtopic.php?p=13221408#p13221408 - andante had a 'never claiming' mindset here in there town game.

in their scum game with me previously, and this game, they acted like PR, but claimed VT in both.

Said I was setting up flips in both scum games, didn't in their town game.

Had a 'scared aaah' reaction at the end of a scum flip. They bussed in the other one, i think they bussed here.
____

Now the base of my scum read comes from the next stuff, and I'll use a town example of theirs in comparison, but really the case works without it too.

They've been minimizing and misrepping cases on them all game here. That is inherently scummy. while here they were able to completely write out and explain in detail what someone was pushing them for as town.

On top of that, my day 1 case of them puffing chest because they knew there wasn't a case on them in addition to the ^.

And their incredibly stalled wagoning proving scum really didn't want the Andante wagon to go through while the Skygazer wagon was E-3 at one point, and had it gotten another vote, quick hammer range. This is probably the strongest base reason for scum Andante. While this alone wouldn't make them scum, this in conjunction with all of the others things probably does.

The Hot and Cold Treatment Rewarding Players when they town read them, and Punishing Players when they don't. I slightly slightly slighty turned off of them thanks to Kowahbunga's case on Andante, and they immediately flipped on me. After I started casing them, they immediately retracted.

There are tons and tons of different emotional tactics being used by Andante this game, such as the defeatist technique, the hyper post, and the all over the place. Sure, you can cut this back as personality, but there is no denying that these are both survivalistic tactics. Again, this is in conjunction with other things in the game, not this one singular thing.
_______

Now let's check out Kowabungha's case.

Kowabungha's Case is a strong singular point for them being scum in the fact that they are being incredibly inconsistent with their reads, and this implies that they are going with the flow and adapting when they need to. The biggest thing here is when Kowa says 'Why are you willing to vote out someone who is being scum read by your biggest scum read?" This might not be anything major at first glance, but when you combine this with Andante repeatedly saying this game they don't want to elim townies, it shows Andante as being incredibly performative here.

Kowa made an amazing reasoning pointing out Gimli telling Andante to come back to Kitty wagon after Andante tried one last ditch effort to get the momentum to move from Kitty to Malcolm.

Kowa also pointed out that Andante made a list of people they would be okay eliminating, and they put a large list with Kitty on it. We went Kitty. They couldn't back out of it because they already put them in the pool.

Kowa says they scum read Andante in a previous game and let them get away. This means both Kowa and Myself have previous experience with ScumAndante, and scum read them correctly at points.


And what is Andante's immediate response to this?

"The hell is this case?" An immediate shut down to a strong case. Even if Andante were town, this made sense as a case, it could have just been wrong. But instead it got shut down and pushed out with a "I explained Malcolm read yesterday". I didn't double check, but yeah.

They then go on and hard aggressively push me for 'setting up flips on them' when I talk about how I liked Kowabungha's case, and how it brought Andante down slightly. This lead me to wanting to deep dive because of the big overreaction. I was still lean town on Andante at that point.

Andante used the push on me to distract from Kowabungha's case and drown it out, causing it to be hidden.

Did anyone besides Gimli and I see the Kowabungha case? did anyone read Kowabungha's case?

Check the case out. It's a really good case imo.

But yeah, long story short, one of these things happening don't make Andante scum. All of these things together makes her scum.

[Gimli]

I'm in full support of flipping andante

[Flavor Leaf]

I'm in full support of flipping andante

The fact that you, me, and Bud are the ones on her right now feels super clean to me based on Kitty wagon too (among other things for town reading the two of you)

[GuyInFreezer]

VOTE: Andante

[Flavor Leaf]

are more likely scum.

How are they more likely to be scum? You're basing it off of a blank canvas and not actual reads. This is inherently untrue.

[NJAC]

are more likely scum.

How are they more likely to be scum? You're basing it off of a blank canvas and not actual reads. This is inherently untrue.

I think I didn't word it properly.

I'll try to explain it better. There are two groups:

Group 1: formed by 9 players, those who were on Kitty's wagon at the end of D1.

Group 2: formed by 7 players, those who were not on Kitty's wagon at the end of D1.

What I was trying to say is that we should select the scummier players from group 2, and press and vote there.

Like, I expect we can narrow down that group of 7, by analyzing what happened on D1 and other things, and reach a lim pool of maybe two or three suspects, and if we lim one of those we have a high chance of hitting scum.

[NJAC]

Group 1 (9 players): Flavor Leaf, Gimli, NJAC, Andante, Save The Dragons, curiouskarmadog, Bub Bidderskins, Hu Tao, Kowahbunga

Group 2 (7 players): Greeting, Enchant, Venmar, GuyInFreezer, MalcolmTucker, Eiralox, Skygazer


Group 2 includes Greeting, who has claimed Mason. So we can focus this day 2 on the following lim pool:

{Enchant, Venmar, GIF, Malcolm, Eira, Sky}

We have a high chance of hitting scum by limming one of those six players, like a probability of 1/3, if the assumption of at most one scum bussing is true.

Who is the scummiest from that six?

[Flavor Leaf]

I don't really want to go for a probability scum read, I'd rather just go for someone I think is like 98% scum.

I get what you're saying, but that feels like a starting point on how to find a different scum that we could possibly miss.

I don't really want to climb back down the mountain for me to make a plan how to climb up the mountain.

[Flavor Leaf]

i think 2 scum are probably on Kitty, though, so it feels like 1/7.

[Flavor Leaf]

My solve right now is Andante + one of Hu Tao/STD (lean Hu Tao) + 1 of Enchant/Malcolm/Eiralax/Skygazer.

Based on simply wagonomics not to mention reads.

Kowahbunga's Case on Andante makes them the most likely early busser, I think there's likely one more on it in Hu Tao/STD.