TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM | Endgame

[Ythan]

I already told you the reaction had surpassed the initial motivation of the vote!

Yes, and yet you have provided zero context for what that reaction is supposed to be.

It just feels like you have this ego trip and you don't want to be wrong because being wrong will mean you did something ridiculous and you can't have that can you.

Wrong. I told you I disbelieved that you would interpret my posts as intended to tilt you.

And I gave you like 3 reasons why I would, and you ignored that.

It's fine to not believe me, no actually it's not this whole fucking take of yours is so unreally beyond the pale.

but even if you don't believe me you're not progressing or responding at ALL

I don't believe you. Sometimes your arguments are not going to be compelling enough to change people's minds.

So your plan is to pretend to engage with me while having 0 chance of actually being convinced while tunnelling me all game?

I told you why I think you're lying and you just keep repeating this same tired refrain. Shouting the same refrain loud enough long enough is not going to help. You keep talking about my ego but can you chill the fuck out trying to dictate that I have to believe everything you say thanks.

then don't engage with it.

I'm doing my own thing, you're the one who asked "are you still doing this because of me"

you're the one who keeps re-engaging to have the last word

I was being sincere. It seems like a lot of effort if that was your purpose.

[Ythan]

let me have the last word or admit this isn't about anythign but your ego

This is clearly about your ego jfc.

[Alisae]

tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.

tbh what I would be a lot more interested in seeing is the breakdown of the why are the stats are the way they are as opposed to "here are there stats therefore the stats must be right"

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also, this whole thing has made me less want to elim two of the sixes.

yeah I know, I get it. Conflict makes you want to do the opposite of whatever is being pitched, but you'll end up cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Also, I'm not saying we should eliminate 2 sixes. We should eliminate one and react from there.

[Ythan]

cause I'm comfortable enough to admit this is largely about my ego at this point

i want to prove you wrong

Oh lol

[Ythan]

am I going to have to deal with ythan v lld all game?

Lld vs ythan, please

[Ythan]

I agree with LLD's broader point about not pushing the top draft order too early. Though, it's a risk reward thing because if someone near the top is scum then they could have a role that could be worse for us if they get to use it (e.g. vig). But it seems reasonable to give them a ride through D1 at least.

I still don't get why LLD, if you think scum are gonna gambit by pairing, they'd do it on a number you say is the most likely to be picked, compared to a different number. But I don't get why you see the number distribution of "unique lowest" drafts to be relevant to this "unique median" draft anyhow.

In other news Rad feels town to me, 94 seemed to be genuinely trying to get a read on LLD.

Like now I want to tr alisea just for not shouting and sounding reasonable, and imaginality, a bit

Mood.
I was about to say the same about Bellaphont lol.

Seriously though, given the last game I was in scum won by basically outposting and talking over everyone else the whole game I am inclined to vote someone quicker this game if they are drowning out the game.

P-edit, yeah like Alisae said, make sure the interactions have value beyond "someone is wrong on the internet!"

Yeah this, also the post you made earlier. The point up top is good but the rest is not.

[Alisae]

am I going to have to deal with ythan v lld all game?

Lld vs ythan, please

Did I do something wrong? I'm sorry I'm confused

[Lady Lambdadelta]

tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.

tbh what I would be a lot more interested in seeing is the breakdown of the why are the stats are the way they are as opposed to "here are there stats therefore the stats must be right"

you want the reason they are that way?

if scum don't double up they pick 3 different numbers right?

humans tend to pick similar numbers in games like these becaue we have similar thoughts and out guesses. Any one townie is about as llikely as not to double or triple up.

So when there are 3 scum all picking somethign different the odds they are tripling up onto a town's double up is substantial.

The odds you pick any 3 players in general and find a scum are already a thing, but this includes a bit of logic inwhere scum are trying to avoid town but won;t always succeed and they also need to pick numbers they can justify.

It happens because scum split apart... or group up. And in either case, they end up creating clusters.

[Alisae]

tbh I like Imaginality's read on rad I'm not sure that is likely to come from a wolf.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

am I going to have to deal with ythan v lld all game?

Lld vs ythan, please

Did I do something wrong? I'm sorry I'm confused

nah her point here is that somehow I'm the one fighting her. It's a reframing device to make me look like the guilty party.

[imaginality]

viewtopic.php?t=22791

Petapan replaces in for Iamausername, scum in the group of 5 at the bottom of the draft order.

viewtopic.php?t=70532

5 1s, 1 scum in the 1s.

Both of those examples had 1 scum out of the group of 5. They are actually counter examples. 1/5 is

less

likely to hit scum than 3/13 random chance.

It makes me doubt whether you genuinely are motivated by your statistical analysis here, because if you were you wouldn't describe those games as evidence in favour of it?

[Alisae]

tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.

tbh what I would be a lot more interested in seeing is the breakdown of the why are the stats are the way they are as opposed to "here are there stats therefore the stats must be right"

you want the reason they are that way?

if scum don't double up they pick 3 different numbers right?

humans tend to pick similar numbers in games like these becaue we have similar thoughts and out guesses. Any one townie is about as llikely as not to double or triple up.

So when there are 3 scum all picking somethign different the odds they are tripling up onto a town's double up is substantial.

The odds you pick any 3 players in general and find a scum are already a thing, but this includes a bit of logic inwhere scum are trying to avoid town but won;t always succeed and they also need to pick numbers they can justify.

It happens because scum split apart... or group up. And in either case, they end up creating clusters.

I could understand it with a number like 1 but I can't understand it with a number like 6 unless whoever is a wolf just didn't think about it, which I think it something that would say something a lot bigger as a whole about the wolf team.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

viewtopic.php?t=22791

Petapan replaces in for Iamausername, scum in the group of 5 at the bottom of the draft order.

viewtopic.php?t=70532

5 1s, 1 scum in the 1s.

Both of those examples had 1 scum out of the group of 5. They are actually counter examples. 1/5 is

less

likely to hit scum than 3/13 random chance.

It makes me doubt whether you genuinely are motivated by your statistical analysis here, because if you were you wouldn't describe those games as evidence in favour of it?

the point is scum end up in large groups of 3 or more when the groups collide in number.

Not that it's more likely than any random chance.

The point is because these groups trend towards the bottom of the graph they are good D1 elimination pools by design because thye more often than not contain scum and aren't revealing town power structure.

[Alisae]

am I going to have to deal with ythan v lld all game?

Lld vs ythan, please

Did I do something wrong? I'm sorry I'm confused

nah her point here is that somehow I'm the one fighting her. It's a reframing device to make me look like the guilty party.

oh
so the only thing it's doing is it's adding fuel to the fire?

[Menalque]

I’ve read page 1 and 13 but I have no intention of voting anyone based on number vs play and I find the little argumentation I’ve read for voting based on number unconvincing

[Lady Lambdadelta]

tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.

tbh what I would be a lot more interested in seeing is the breakdown of the why are the stats are the way they are as opposed to "here are there stats therefore the stats must be right"

you want the reason they are that way?

if scum don't double up they pick 3 different numbers right?

humans tend to pick similar numbers in games like these becaue we have similar thoughts and out guesses. Any one townie is about as llikely as not to double or triple up.

So when there are 3 scum all picking somethign different the odds they are tripling up onto a town's double up is substantial.

The odds you pick any 3 players in general and find a scum are already a thing, but this includes a bit of logic inwhere scum are trying to avoid town but won;t always succeed and they also need to pick numbers they can justify.

It happens because scum split apart... or group up. And in either case, they end up creating clusters.

I could understand it with a number like 1 but I can't understand it with a number like 6 unless whoever is a wolf just didn't think about it, which I think it something that would say something a lot bigger as a whole about the wolf team.

Any wolf could think like you did, Ali. How are you having this take when you literally admitted that you thought no one would take 6 because 6 is always taken.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

am I going to have to deal with ythan v lld all game?

Lld vs ythan, please

Did I do something wrong? I'm sorry I'm confused

nah her point here is that somehow I'm the one fighting her. It's a reframing device to make me look like the guilty party.

oh
so the only thing it's doing is it's adding fuel to the fire?

yup

[Menalque]

Also if the game is moving this fast then imma be honest, I’m probably not gonna be playing that much until like d3 when numbers have gone down

[Alisae]

I’ve read page 1 and 13 but I have no intention of voting anyone based on number vs play and I find the little argumentation I’ve read for voting based on number unconvincing

Good Morning Mena!

[Alisae]

Also if the game is moving this fast then imma be honest, I’m probably not gonna be playing that much until like d3 when numbers have gone down

Ythan and LLD have been fighting a lot for the past few pages and it REALLY added a lot to the thread and I'm not happy with it. It shows no signs of stopping which is

[Menalque]

Also hi ali!

I gotta run now bc work but I will try to catch up the main stuff later

No promises of it happening today tho I slept fucking awfully

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also if the game is moving this fast then imma be honest, I’m probably not gonna be playing that much until like d3 when numbers have gone down

Ythan and LLD have been fighting a lot for the past few pages and it REALLY added a lot to the thread and I'm not happy with it. It shows no signs of stopping which is

is Mena town or scum?

[Menalque]

One can only hope it calms down bc I thought this was a v fun PL when I saw the rand

[Alisae]

tbh my opinion on stats is stats are not the conclusion themselves. Stats should be leading us to questions about how we got that conclusion.

tbh what I would be a lot more interested in seeing is the breakdown of the why are the stats are the way they are as opposed to "here are there stats therefore the stats must be right"

you want the reason they are that way?

if scum don't double up they pick 3 different numbers right?

humans tend to pick similar numbers in games like these becaue we have similar thoughts and out guesses. Any one townie is about as llikely as not to double or triple up.

So when there are 3 scum all picking somethign different the odds they are tripling up onto a town's double up is substantial.

The odds you pick any 3 players in general and find a scum are already a thing, but this includes a bit of logic inwhere scum are trying to avoid town but won;t always succeed and they also need to pick numbers they can justify.

It happens because scum split apart... or group up. And in either case, they end up creating clusters.

I could understand it with a number like 1 but I can't understand it with a number like 6 unless whoever is a wolf just didn't think about it, which I think it something that would say something a lot bigger as a whole about the wolf team.

Any wolf could think like you did, Ali. How are you having this take when you literally admitted that you thought no one would take 6 because 6 is always taken.

I'm tired and it seemed like you were writing a bunch of words and it was all just a blur.