Mini 2297 | Conception | Postgame

[furtiveglance]

Follow the townie is like a compromise wagon, and if the townie is off, it benefits scum more than town.

This is a multiball game.

We don't know how many scum are left, but expect more than there would be in a singleball.

Doesn't this suggest that trusting players we think are town is a good strategy, as it gives scum less input?

[Flavor Leaf]

Eh, not necessarily.

I get the logic, though. I just think it’s an ‘easier’ option, and I generally shy away from those in Mafia. That’s similar to why I brought up Compromise wagons, just because it flows best, doesn’t mean it’s the best path.

Rocky roads in Mafia can lead to great things.

And if ActionDan ends up being town, my exact point is proven.

[furtiveglance]

Eh, not necessarily.

I get the logic, though. I just think it’s an ‘easier’ option, and I generally shy away from those in Mafia. That’s similar to why I brought up Compromise wagons, just because it flows best, doesn’t mean it’s the best path.

Rocky roads in Mafia can lead to great things.

And if ActionDan ends up being town,

my exact point is proven

.

What point?

[Flavor Leaf]

We have to take a leap of faith in general regardless.

Logically speaking, Abnegation is the best elimination, but this isn’t a purely logical game.

[Flavor Leaf]

Following townies is the easier path, not really the right path.

It’s a Mafilosophy thing, though, more than anything. I feel like I’ve argued this point in any game that comes up, though

[Flavor Leaf]

It’s why a lot of Masons have absolute garbage reads because every slot ends up playing to them

[Flavor Leaf]

Just not a good spot to get an accurate flow of the game.

If anything the people on the side are better because they get their own slot + the townie slots

[Flavor Leaf]

I feel like whether you agree with the notion or not, you can at least see where I’m coming from with it

[Flavor Leaf]

Like from your perspective, if you town read Abnegation as strong as you do, they have the same knowledge of Enchant/Ice likely being town, their perspective would be more open and likely correct than Ice’s

[Flavor Leaf]

So by going Ice over Abnegation there because people don’t fully share your Ab read, that’s the Compromise, and why I’ve never been a fan of follow the close to Conf town.

[Abnegation]

I still think Abnegation is town. Why?

Their claim is risky if false: investigatives would be able to disprove the claim in certain scenarios.

So if you want to sell Abnegation as scum then, you really have to believe in a scum role which actually shows as the opposite scumteam every other night, which seems like an unlikely role to put in to me.

The Keeper remains suspicious to me due to the likelihood of their non-Benediction announcement having come from scum (and the already-stated benefit of self-targeting with such a role)

If it came down to ActionDan vs Hugir, I'd probably vote for AD.

My reads currently look something like this:

Enchant, IceDragon70
Abnegation
Feysal, Flavor Leaf, Hugir
ActionDan, The Keeper

I think we should probably agree to let IceDragon lead the elimination today, since they are confirmed by Enchant (and that does not look like scum/scum to me at all). I'm slightly concerned by the voices in the POE themselves being louder than the towny voices today.

you're probably just town here. even if you've got a partner, i still think it's fairly risky to use the loverize.
i agree with your theory on keeper, i think it makes more sense than a lot of the others we've had.
thing is, i'd almost rather execute someone active to reduce some of that noise that you've mentioned.
you know what, maybe we just have enchant roll a die with each number corresponding to someone in your bottom six. it's at least 50/50.

[Enchant]

VOTE: Hugir

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: Hugir

Hugir, Abnegation, Furtive, Keeper, ActionDan contain all the scum. Something in my gut says ActionDan’s town here. Everything he says makes logical sense, and I think he’s just super genuine. So he’s last for a reason. The other 4 are interchangeable.

[Flavor Leaf]

Instant paranoia, not gonna lie.

If this was any other slot rather than Hugir who I have a tendency to town read, then scum flip, then one of us die, and we end up being T/T.

I just think if we gotta go Abnegation, Hugir, or Action, my preference right now is

Abnegation/Hugir->Action.

With

[Flavor Leaf]

I still think Furt is just scum here, but the Loverizer claim will end them eventually. If Enchant is scum, it was a good claim, and probably wins them the game, and I’mokay with that scenario imo considering it is less likely. Even if it ends up being true, it doesn’t make as much sense, which is just credit to the claim.

[Flavor Leaf]

If it’s a pseudo true claim as scum, that’s just annoying.

[Flavor Leaf]

So to answer your question, Furt.


Abnegation, Furt, and Hugir are the 3 scum for me right now.

[Enchant]

I can still roll dice, but you will still be angry

[Flavor Leaf]

I smoke too much weed to be angry here.

My tone def comes across differently in pure text form even though in person, I’d say the same things, but the tone changes it all.

[Enchant]

Also no fuck no, when i learnt about love i instantly assumed it's scummy doing and was not amused learning that it's furtive guilt, dude just singlehandedly moved game to potential elo and ruined my chance to third check.


I am not furious about it at this point, i am in state of acceptance and don't really care how you will win this after my demise.

[Flavor Leaf]

I mean, I’m on your side with FurtScum.

[Flavor Leaf]

But love’ll do that to ya

[ActionDan]

Their claim is risky if false: investigatives would be able to disprove the claim in certain scenarios.

Is it really that risky? Even were you a cop with the specific ability to bypass the miller requirement at the very least you're reducing the nights you worry about it by 1/2 and discouraging being checked regardless by its plausibility. The last game with a miller claim I played in turned out to be scum (Traitor though).

Current thoughts:

Still don't think Furtive is scum. I am feeling pretty strongly that attaching yourself to enchant presents more ways to get you killed than keep you alive and is only somewhat useful to the red scum if Furtive went down before their partner.

Of the rest. Ab is very very likely green. Logic (tm) is going to win out there over feels.

FL I am coming around to, but not completely, looking like town. At the very least the effort / energy (what these new kids call WIM) looks the part and it does not seem like I'm talking to a wall.

Feysal I would like to think is town still but I have noticed their energy looks somewhat sapped today.

Keeper doesn't exist and probably has the best red scum equity of everone.

If my baseline assumptions about everyone else are correct Hugir becomes red by POE. I have felt they have played quite decently townie but there are now two (unequal) pieces of circumstantial against them; anti-redirect role exists + Aisa did suspect them and Aisa is dead.

In any case if you guys want red instead of green, I think we should all turn around and vote keeper. just so we don't lose pretty much immediately on Mine or Hugir's flips if Hugir town.

I'll be working all day tomorrow but I will be able to occasionally skim fast during the day and will be able to post a couple hours before deadline anyway.

[Flavor Leaf]

Keeper can be in that pool of mine too, so if you’re town, AD, let’s ride

[Abnegation]

i’m fine with hugir or keeper.