Amnesiac Mafia: The Movie! That's a Wrap!

[Frozen Angel]

Drixx, if I am incorrect, please feel free to correct me. I am going to be ill for quite awhile so your BoP is unfair. However, we shouldn't go into moon logic.

I'm locktowning Black if PB town. Is that conftown? No as Black said. There's a one in 15ish chance. I'm ok with that if I lose to that. I'd obviously check in elo.

If Black is town and PB scum, then PB must pick up Black's crumbs and commit to that action. This forecloses any realistic argument Black is scum. That's not consistent with PB's play. PB has been townreading me and I raised Black suspicion. Confirming Black as likely town effectively undoes the benefit of that pocket.

The most likely scenario is Black and PB are aligned.

I don't get the 1 in 15 chance and where it comes from.

why would you assume scum wouldnt have all the roles they getting shared with each other. scum having the role has 4/15 or something chance - not 1/15 and that's just the natural bias of town having more player than scum.

that doesn't mean someone is more likely town than scum more than what we know naturally about all slots having more chance of being town than scum

[Frozen Angel]

I see 3 possible scenarios beside them both being town

either both are scum and that whole claim was theatre. they made a scenario where people would think a scum!pb is conftowning a poe suspect black who is also scum. town would say pb had no motivation for this and clear both as town

or black is scum here, had the role as the roles scum get so acted the way she did to get someone conftown them cause they knew someone else had the role too

or pb is scum here, had the role in roles scum get and to attach himself to another town, "conftowned" the other player who had the role in their own words, so people would read them as town too

please tell me mechanically how any of the above are unlikely if you wanna say mech dictates both are town.

either I'm so stupid or this argument is so stupid.

[Frozen Angel]

but good night. I'll do my thing tomorrow. promise

[Black]

(see!? This is me trying to do mech are you proud of me yet?)

Very!

I suck at it too but you see me trying

Hell I'm even getting scumread by FA and Drixx because my mech knowledge sucks

[Thestatusquo]

if you want more context on what bastard is or isnt its actually something of a debate currently

viewtopic.php?t=88239

but either way this game is almost certainly guaranteed to not be bastard.

[Pink Ball]

PB I wanna make it clear that I believe that you're town, I'm just saying what I think your motivations could be in the event you are lying scum

But do you realize that, even with that motivation, the play makes no sense from scum!PB?

- I would have to claim targeting you without interference, which I can't know if I was or not (ie StD could've jailkept me, Klick could've targeted you)
- In case there was no interference, you get pseudo conf-towned
- And even if my objective was looking townie myself, do you think I

need

to do that, when nobody's pushing me and lots of people are scumreading you?

It's a high risk gambit with almost no credit whatsoever. It makes no sense.

[Titus]

Logically, I expect Black to die here to limit the opportunity to confirm or deny any more people. The scum could, if Black is town, shoot in her PoE. That benefits us. If the role scrambles to a living player, we get a guilty, so that's unlikely to happen.

They could take a gamble that Black targets them and shoot Black. In this case, we'd get scum in Black's PoE but possibly lose the caterer role. If scum shoot Black and Black targets town, we are in the same situation as today but scum are forced to shoot scummy people until the PoE dies.

@FA, Yes, PB could claim on another scum but that's getting into moon logic terrority as it needs scum to notice crumbs, discuss who should claim it, and then have intense theater. PB was largely townread prior to the claim. If they'd go there, they'd go Klick or Dunn and sooner in the day.

[Titus]

There is another scenario where Black targets scum, they get it and claim it, but it would be odd when they wouldn't die the night after which is puzzling.

[Thestatusquo]

Logically, I expect Black to die here to limit the opportunity to confirm or deny any more people. The scum could, if Black is town, shoot in her PoE. That benefits us. If the role scrambles to a living player, we get a guilty, so that's unlikely to happen.

They could take a gamble that Black targets them and shoot Black. In this case, we'd get scum in Black's PoE but possibly lose the caterer role. If scum shoot Black and Black targets town, we are in the same situation as today but scum are forced to shoot scummy people until the PoE dies.

I am having a really hard time figuring out why town you would think its a good thing to say this out loud?

[Drixx]

I don't think pb and black are a particularly useful thing to continue to delve into today. If they're lying we'll figure it out over time way more than we will get anything useful out of trying to poke at them today.

If we're living in a world where PB and Black are scum and the whole thing was theatre, their claim literally gets them to ELO.

13 alive right now. Someone is roped today and they kill tonight and we're down to 11 tomorrow.

Tomorrow they wait until someone they want to rope claims something and then they claim to have catered to that person and since they didn't get the role they must be scum, and so we rope that person, and another night kill happens. Then we're down to 9. Presumably that's 5 and 4, right?

Then the entire game hinges on what to do with Black at that point. Black will claim they must have been blocked somehow on night 2, leading to the posited mislim on day 3. Black would claim this regardless of alignment.

See the problem yet?

That's why I said this is exactly the kind of play I like to make when I roll scum. If successful, the play delivers scum to the very doorstep of victory, and even if the town manages to decide to rope in ELO, the town is still one wrong elimination from losing. This claim as a gambit would get the scum team entirely intact into ELO, forcing us to correctly eliminate four consecutive times.

Thinking about it today is necessary. There is an obvious solution, but perhaps there are less obvious solutions also.


P-Edit: Titus we wouldn't "lose" the role.
P-Edit: TSQ I guarantee with this being team mafia that the scum already realized that. Titus didn't say anything that was useful not to say.

[Titus]

Logically, I expect Black to die here to limit the opportunity to confirm or deny any more people. The scum could, if Black is town, shoot in her PoE. That benefits us. If the role scrambles to a living player, we get a guilty, so that's unlikely to happen.

They could take a gamble that Black targets them and shoot Black. In this case, we'd get scum in Black's PoE but possibly lose the caterer role. If scum shoot Black and Black targets town, we are in the same situation as today but scum are forced to shoot scummy people until the PoE dies.

I am having a really hard time figuring out why town you would think its a good thing to say this out loud?

I deleted this a few times before deciding to post it.

A) In the uber rare event there's a doctor, they heal Black.

B) Everyone gets on the same place, which can tilt the scumteam.

C) We save a lot of time tmo by not spending it on mech.

[Black]

Here's how I see it playing out from scum!PB. You can tell me if any of this is wrong or wouldn't be a good play

You roll Caterer D1. You can't target anyone with it because you're scum. The roll gets randomly assigned by me

I soft claim this as soon as Day starts, saying I should be conftown if the person that had my role targeted me

You choose to ignore this and still put me in your top scum pool, hoping you don't ever have to claim to confirm me as town. This kinda lines up with you being all for the mass claim D1 but kinda not feeling it D2

I asked you what your D1 role was and you avoided the question the first time. So I asked you again and you knew you couldn't avoid it again, so you kind of hint that you had my role without really confirming it. Then you ask me to stop talking about it because you're still hopeful that you can avoid conftowning me

I don't think this is the world we live in but does this sound absurd to you?

[Pink Ball]

I think I disagree with pinkball that this would be bastard though.

I understand the role as:
- if your target is town, they receive it
- if they're scum or die, it's randomized
That sounds like if the target is scum or dies, they can't get the role in the first place, so if they end getting anyway it's a lie.

I mean imagine a world were Black is scum and we all believe she's conftown because we didn't consider that she could be scum because of fucking odds. On TM. I would be fuming.

[Titus]

I don't think pb and black are a particularly useful thing to continue to delve into today. If they're lying we'll figure it out over time way more than we will get anything useful out of trying to poke at them today.

If we're living in a world where PB and Black are scum and the whole thing was theatre, their claim literally gets them to ELO.

13 alive right now. Someone is roped today and they kill tonight and we're down to 11 tomorrow.

Tomorrow they wait until someone they want to rope claims something and then they claim to have catered to that person and since they didn't get the role they must be scum, and so we rope that person, and another night kill happens. Then we're down to 9. Presumably that's 5 and 4, right?

Then the entire game hinges on what to do with Black at that point. Black will claim they must have been blocked somehow on night 2, leading to the posited mislim on day 3. Black would claim this regardless of alignment.

See the problem yet?

That's why I said this is exactly the kind of play I like to make when I roll scum. If successful, the play delivers scum to the very doorstep of victory, and even if the town manages to decide to rope in ELO, the town is still one wrong elimination from losing. This claim as a gambit would get the scum team entirely intact into ELO, forcing us to correctly eliminate four consecutive times.

Thinking about it today is necessary. There is an obvious solution, but perhaps there are less obvious solutions also.


P-Edit: Titus we wouldn't "lose" the role.
P-Edit: TSQ I guarantee with this being team mafia that the scum already realized that. Titus didn't say anything that was useful not to say.

Black living in that setup would force her into a 1 v 1 with the jailkeeper which they could shoot accidentally or her target, which could be the same person. The path to Elo is ridiculous.

[Pink Ball]

There is another scenario where Black targets scum, they get it and claim it, but it would be odd when they wouldn't die the night after which is puzzling.

They can't get it, unless you mean that it gets randomized to them

[Thestatusquo]

@black

yes because why wouldn't scum PB decide not just keep you in the lim pool? He doesn't have to say anything at all and you stay right in the PoE.

There's a plausible path of actions for PB but what you're missing is the motivation for PB to do anything but just let your role be unconfirmed.

[GuyInFreezer]

Dear folks who thinks mech things are boring

Better now than near ELo amirite

[Titus]

I throughly believe given the weakness of the roles and the coordination required to confirm, we are looking at a three goon setup.

[Titus]

There is another scenario where Black targets scum, they get it and claim it, but it would be odd when they wouldn't die the night after which is puzzling.

They can't get it, unless you mean that it gets randomized to them

Right.

[Black]

@Drixx, it's bold of you to assume I'm not going to get NK'ed. I think people would start to suspect me if I live through a couple nights

This is the type of situation you deal with later on. You don't lim me or PB today

[Thestatusquo]

Dear folks who thinks mech things are boring

Better now than near ELo amirite

I mean my claim isnt that they're boring its that they make it extremely hard for me to engage at all because most mech conversation isn't AI in my eyes.

Also as in all my games I hope to be dead long before ELO.

[Pink Ball]

I asked you what your D1 role was and you avoided the question the first time

This is were you are wrong. I approached you first, not the other way around

[Titus]

Well maybe 4 goon.

[Frozen Angel]

Logically, I expect Black to die here to limit the opportunity to confirm or deny any more people. The scum could, if Black is town, shoot in her PoE. That benefits us. If the role scrambles to a living player, we get a guilty, so that's unlikely to happen.

They could take a gamble that Black targets them and shoot Black. In this case, we'd get scum in Black's PoE but possibly lose the caterer role. If scum shoot Black and Black targets town, we are in the same situation as today but scum are forced to shoot scummy people until the PoE dies.

@FA, Yes, PB could claim on another scum but that's getting into moon logic terrority as it needs scum to notice crumbs, discuss who should claim it, and then have intense theater. PB was largely townread prior to the claim. If they'd go there, they'd go Klick or Dunn and sooner in the day.

I don't think not clearing someone for wrong/not fool proof reasons enters moon logic territory. clearing people is extremely sensitive thing to do. You can claim you town read interaction and stuff but the moment you say you think it lock town/conf town them you're removing them from scum hunting pool and its dangerous if its not done with a fool proof reason.

in this case, I see many ways for either to be scum individually or together that even if it doesn't sound likely based on how they did the claim, its enough to say the claims themselves are not clearing anyone.

You cant have people cleared for wrong reasons going to late days. If I learned one thing modding my games is, the town has a huge tendency to forget and never analyze back stuff they moved on from.

[Thestatusquo]

@Drixx, it's bold of you to assume I'm not going to get NK'ed. I think people would start to suspect me if I live through a couple nights

This is the type of situation you deal with later on. You don't lim me or PB today

fwiw this is exactly why scum wouldn't nightkill you and why I don't understand why titus thinks its worthwhile to talk about what we expect them to do.