Amnesiac Mafia: The Movie! That's a Wrap!

[GuyInFreezer]

Although technically I guess today’s lim pool should be those who claimed VT D1.

[Frozen Angel]

This game state is actually really wierd. something feels wrong with the claims

we're saying 4 people are conftown cause of claims. shea richer and kuriba are same alignment for sure - and almost certainly town unless if it was their plot since day 1

but how pb is also in same group. pb claimed tracker and a result that would make sense with tsq but why a scum pt wouldn't be able to make that up? we know scum also rand the roles just cant do skills

at this point we just gotta focus on pb dun drixx gif me and std for 4 scum 2 town (which means there is only 1 other town in this list beside me) unless if tsq ircher and kuribo are 3 scum and there is only 1 scum in rest mechanically

this is assuming 4 scum which I doubt scum are less in a setup that looks this skewed to town with moving power actions. Plus we still have no idea about what actual skills scum can have in a setup like this.

[Frozen Angel]

I completely trust STD claims

Why? This post needs more elaboration for the rest of us to follow.

cause the tracker was a role that I was looking for with grave digger existing and he had no reason to drop a new claim in board if he was scum.

and I believe his vig claim too

[GuyInFreezer]

I kinda wanna focus on the D1 VT claims actually
Because at least one of them lied.

[Frozen Angel]

at this time I think we have some possibilities:

1 - kuribo and richer are town, this means shea is town I guess, the scum is in Drixx, Dunnstral,GuyInFreezer, Pink Ball, Save The Dragons which means a 4/5 from that group

2 - kuribo and richer are scum and for some weird reason they claimed something like a masonry early that no one else confirmed, in this scenario shea can be town or scum I guess cause they got the caterer for real or not but its most likely town unless if scum planned to claim visionary cast like that (?), and then the remaining scum are hidden in rest.

regardless there are 2 to 4 scum in Drixx, Dunnstral,GuyInFreezer, Pink Ball, Save The Dragons

am I right with my math?

What are your reads? I keep seeing you post a lot of mech so it's hard for me to get where your current stances are.

The mech is heavily related to my reads. I have missed almost half the entire game to have single person reads. If game goes to Thursday evening and Friday, I will have time to do some proper analysis but at this time I'm leaning on drixx being the scum between the drixx dun std gif pb list that we know contains at least one scum and likely all 4

[Frozen Angel]

I kinda wanna focus on the D1 VT claims actually
Because at least one of them lied.

How so? we had 2 dead players who didn't claim their d1 role and we had grave digger and tracker missing right? am I missing another role that was not claimed?

[GuyInFreezer]

I think ones that claimed VT D1 and still alive are

Me
FA
Dunn
TSQ?

P-Edit- vig claim is missing too.

[Frozen Angel]

can someone list all claims that were made

pedit: huh true

[GuyInFreezer]

Black (Good in Plaid) - VBC
Ircher BlueSnakelet (Whimsical Activities) - Lover
DragonEater70 (Pork Eaters) - ???
Drixx (We Don’t Mafia) - Commuter
Dunnstral (Polymewl) - VBC
Feysal (Ancient Guard) - ???
Firebringer (Perfectly Balanced) - Corrupt Judge
Frozen Angel (Shadow Syndicate) - VBC
GuyInFreezer (Average ™ Enjoyers) - VBC
Klick (Klickin’ Chickens) - VBC
Kuribo (Ghosts of NKs) - Lover
Pink Ball (Jingle Ballers) - Caterer
Save The Dragons (Studies Show) - Jailkeeper
Thestatusquo (Frog Friends) - VBC?
Titus (Crispy Cream Puffs) - VBC

Unclaimed - gravedigger, vig, tracker

D1 claims

[Frozen Angel]

alternatively, we can also assume that someone from dead people who claimed vt lied to keep tracker or vig hidden or just considered gravedigger vt which is the least likely option.

we need a full list of claims for all three days if someone can spend time to organize it

[GuyInFreezer]

If they lied about their previous days role during massclaim I’m blaming them if we lose lmao

[Frozen Angel]

I need to see a full table of all three days claims.

one thing to consider is that, we can mark some claims as certainly existing if they were claimed to exist by a dead town and then we can try to follow where they went. the next group will be unconfirmed roles that went missing or were not claimed by a dead town, which we need to also consider that they might not exist at all.

It seems we have a very clear picture of setup at this point so we just need to put everything together and see it all in one frame for inconsistencies

[Pink Ball]

I can do that, give me a minute or two

[Pink Ball]

Ircher and Shea what did you have on D2?

[Pink Ball]

Fucks sake I don't have Klick and FB's D2 roles

[Pink Ball]

Yeah no no Firebringer or Klick's roles on D2, that's so fucking sad

[Pink Ball]

But I did find something interesting:

GiF is right, there are 16 roles instead of 15: all the PRs that we already know and 6 VTs. D1 is missing the Vig, the Tracker and the Gravedigger
Gravedigger and Tracker are real: Shea got the gravedigger yesterday and I got the tracker on D3.
Only role that has no confirmation is the vig, which conveniently is on a player who's alive today, but given the 16 roles instead of 15, it could be that one of the VTs is fake and it was actually a scum who fakeclaimed and randed the vig.

Another theory that we talked with Jingle back on D2: there could be 16 roles; that way the lovers get nerfed and make the game a little less townsided. Given how things went the rest of the days, this theory gets more credit now.

But what really caught my attention was this:
Drixx: Commuter, VT, VT
GiF: VT, Commuter, VT
Dunn: VT, VT, Commuter

Commuter is actually a great role for scum in this setup: it gives enough WIFOM about the comfirmable amnesiac roles to the point that some night actions could be disregarded via Commuter claim (Caterer targeted you and you didn't get the role? "Oh I was a commuter"; Visionary and someone else targeted you and you didn't claim receiving a vision? "Oh I commuted last night"; etc). The thing is, Titus started this discussion when Drixx claimed the Commuter, saying that he should've claimed it on D1, and GiF shut down that conversation by claiming the Commuter himself.

So what to do with this connection, knowing that the most likely scenario is that there are four scum members inside {StD,FA,GiF,Drixx,Dunn}?
- The three claimed commuters are scum and 1 scum in {StD,FA}. Why would GiF be going after Dunn in this scenario? While I think the scumteam's strategy is not bussing unless absolutely necessary (because one more night means more chances of town getting conftowned), if StD is the remaining partner it's completely valid to throw Dunn under the bus just to control the rethoric of the game for future days; GiF and co would know that there will be another day to play so making a GiF/Dunn 1v1 makes the other look good the next day. I think the real objective of this scumteam is missliming FA, which GiF started this day saying that was a possibility too.
- Two of three claimed commuters are scum. This one is based on two things: I still townread GiF by play; and the VC at EoD2. I think either GiF or Dunn where caught in the crossfire pushing Titus instead of Klick and I'm inclined to believe that GiF was the one caught there. BUT there's the connection between Drixx and GiF: even if the commuter was a real amnesiac role (confirmed by town!Dunn in this scenario), the way it was claimed on D2 and how GiF followed is concerning. I think that Dunn not claiming it on D3 is actually pro town. The remaining scum would be StD and FA.

And that's it, there are no other scenarios because of the PoE I have. Scenario 1 could discard the idea of voting between {StD,FA} even if everything points out to StD being scum. Scenario 2 discards the idea of voting between {GiF,Dunn}.

Drixx is the only confscum in both scenarios.

[Pink Ball]

VOTE: Drixx

[Pink Ball]

Vote Count

Titus

- 7 (Drixx,

Klick

, Dunnstral, GuyInFreezer,

Thestatusquo

,

Pink Ball

,

Ircher

)

Drixx: Commuter, VT, VT
GiF: VT, Commuter, VT
Dunn: VT, VT, Commuter

Fuck dude

[Pink Ball]

UNVOTE: Drixx

Just to avoid ending the day quickly in case someone has something else to say

[Pink Ball]

in case someone has something else to say

This is mainly towards kuribo, Ircher and Shea

[Pink Ball]

[Save The Dragons]

So PB tracked TSQ, confirming him to 100% town.
So unless all of PB/TSQ/Kuribo/Ircher is in cahoot together, then… yeah.

this is false

[Pink Ball]

So PB tracked TSQ, confirming him to 100% town.
So unless all of PB/TSQ/Kuribo/Ircher is in cahoot together, then… yeah.

this is false

Oh yeah, I tracked FB, not Shea, but I think GiF meant that? Because I tracked FB and confirmed that he targeted Shea with the caterer

[Save The Dragons]

which doesn't clear shea it just means shea was targeted by fb