Amnesiac Mafia: The Movie! That's a Wrap!

[Pink Ball]

Ok dude I know you need to keep the PoE wide

Do you disagree with what I said about Drixx?

[Save The Dragons]

no i need to dispell "facts" that are wrong

[Save The Dragons]

i've kind of thought drixx was scum off and on all game and that's where my vote was likely headed anyway but i haven't had a chance to read what you posted yet

[Save The Dragons]

it is weird that the commuters got VT "randed" every other night except their commute night

[Thestatusquo]

When is drixx's vacation over?

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not sure whether to be offended or not at being called peter griffen.

[Thestatusquo]

I think I will probably end up voting drixx or std today but its hard to figure out which without drixx here and talking,

[Pink Ball]

I'll try to build a strat with the possible PRs that we could have today without having to claim

[GuyInFreezer]

So PB tracked TSQ, confirming him to 100% town.
So unless all of PB/TSQ/Kuribo/Ircher is in cahoot together, then… yeah.

this is false

Potato potahto
You know what I meant there

[Frozen Angel]

which doesn't clear shea it just means shea was targeted by fb

well it makes it extremely unlikely for shea to be scum unless if PB lies

[Frozen Angel]

but it says nothing about PB himself

[Frozen Angel]

But I did find something interesting:

GiF is right, there are 16 roles instead of 15: all the PRs that we already know and 6 VTs. D1 is missing the Vig, the Tracker and the Gravedigger
Gravedigger and Tracker are real: Shea got the gravedigger yesterday and I got the tracker on D3.
Only role that has no confirmation is the vig, which conveniently is on a player who's alive today, but given the 16 roles instead of 15, it could be that one of the VTs is fake and it was actually a scum who fakeclaimed and randed the vig.

Another theory that we talked with Jingle back on D2: there could be 16 roles; that way the lovers get nerfed and make the game a little less townsided. Given how things went the rest of the days, this theory gets more credit now.

But what really caught my attention was this:
Drixx: Commuter, VT, VT
GiF: VT, Commuter, VT
Dunn: VT, VT, Commuter

Commuter is actually a great role for scum in this setup: it gives enough WIFOM about the comfirmable amnesiac roles to the point that some night actions could be disregarded via Commuter claim (Caterer targeted you and you didn't get the role? "Oh I was a commuter"; Visionary and someone else targeted you and you didn't claim receiving a vision? "Oh I commuted last night"; etc). The thing is, Titus started this discussion when Drixx claimed the Commuter, saying that he should've claimed it on D1, and GiF shut down that conversation by claiming the Commuter himself.

So what to do with this connection, knowing that the most likely scenario is that there are four scum members inside {StD,FA,GiF,Drixx,Dunn}?
- The three claimed commuters are scum and 1 scum in {StD,FA}. Why would GiF be going after Dunn in this scenario? While I think the scumteam's strategy is not bussing unless absolutely necessary (because one more night means more chances of town getting conftowned), if StD is the remaining partner it's completely valid to throw Dunn under the bus just to control the rethoric of the game for future days; GiF and co would know that there will be another day to play so making a GiF/Dunn 1v1 makes the other look good the next day. I think the real objective of this scumteam is missliming FA, which GiF started this day saying that was a possibility too.
- Two of three claimed commuters are scum. This one is based on two things: I still townread GiF by play; and the VC at EoD2. I think either GiF or Dunn where caught in the crossfire pushing Titus instead of Klick and I'm inclined to believe that GiF was the one caught there. BUT there's the connection between Drixx and GiF: even if the commuter was a real amnesiac role (confirmed by town!Dunn in this scenario), the way it was claimed on D2 and how GiF followed is concerning. I think that Dunn not claiming it on D3 is actually pro town. The remaining scum would be StD and FA.

And that's it, there are no other scenarios because of the PoE I have. Scenario 1 could discard the idea of voting between {StD,FA} even if everything points out to StD being scum. Scenario 2 discards the idea of voting between {GiF,Dunn}.

Drixx is the only confscum in both scenarios.

This is a very good analysis just few stuff though:

- commuter is a role that by default has a higher chance of being on living town cause of its nature, both that its a protective and cause scum wont hit a claimed commuter
- if only 2 commuter claim is scum then commuter is an amnesiac role, which means the other two were scum fake claiming it. this still doesn't explain why there are 16 roles

you say either all 3 are scum or 2 of them are scum, but what about scenarios none are scum or 1 is scum?

though if we consider you kuribo ircher shea as town then there are 4 scum in the other 5 and it means all commuter claimers are scum, cause I am town too which would work with how we have an extra amnesiac role. if we wanna assume that a commuter claim is not scum then it means that you are scum in their place cause shea cant be scum without you kuribo and richer being scum all 3 and kuribo and richer need to both be scum at same time if they are.

this makes me think drixx is a safe bet to get scum elimed regardless of how we look at setup though too, cause there is no world were none of the commuter claimers are scum. lets say that's the case, then dun drixx gif are all 3 town, that means kuribo and richer are definitely town cause we cant have 5 scum, and it would mean shea is also town cause kuribo and that means we don't have enough candidates for scum left. So its definite that there is at least 1 scum in commuter claims {drixx gif dun}

[Frozen Angel]

drixx getting titus elimed was fine drixx town play, but him disappearing when all the mech talk happened and not commenting on what happened yesterday with how fast day ended is scummy for his standards.

Like I know he said he is on vacation but It feels like he is just lurking hoping for a town to be voted to jump on them.

[Pink Ball]

but what about scenarios none are scum or 1 is scum?

Impossible scenarios because of the PoE

[Pink Ball]

Oh sorry I kept reading and you talked about that

[Drixx]

What exactly do you want from me? I think the game state has been summed up rather succinctly. Either kuribo, Ircher, TSQ are scum and have fake claimed their way to the end, or else the PoE is as stated. I think it's very suspicious that "lovers" never made it to anyone else, and that the whole "conftown" block rests upon things those 3 have said. There's no world where I get everyone to agree to rope Ircher today, so there's not much for me to say.

This is the last possible moment that we have a mistake left to make, and if it were to me to decide, I'd rope Ircher.

I don't know why we're clearing PB. I mean I know what PB claimed, but I don't know why we just believe it. The way the thread played out, there's not really hard evidence either way. On the assumption we make it beyond today but I'm dead (as seems likely with the past couple pages), it would be unwise to just lump PB into a "conftown" block.

I really dislike FA's posting today.

As I predicted to my team weeks ago, I seem to have been left for the easy mis "lim" on the day I assume is ELO.

So let's get on with it.

[Dunnstral]

Commuter is actually a great role for scum in this setup: it gives enough WIFOM about the comfirmable amnesiac roles to the point that some night actions could be disregarded via Commuter claim (Caterer targeted you and you didn't get the role? "Oh I was a commuter"; Visionary and someone else targeted you and you didn't claim receiving a vision? "Oh I commuted last night"; etc). The thing is, Titus started this discussion when Drixx claimed the Commuter, saying that he should've claimed it on D1, and GiF shut down that conversation by claiming the Commuter himself.

This doesn't work for the visionary example. Mafia would receive the vision anyway unless something else was blocking. The visionary would have to be fake, and commuter has nothing to do with that.

Don't forget that someone can also have the commuter role today.

- Two of three claimed commuters are scum. This one is based on two things: I still townread GiF by play; and the VC at EoD2. I think either GiF or Dunn where caught in the crossfire pushing Titus instead of Klick and I'm inclined to believe that GiF was the one caught there. BUT there's the connection between Drixx and GiF: even if the commuter was a real amnesiac role (confirmed by town!Dunn in this scenario), the way it was claimed on D2 and how GiF followed is concerning. I think that Dunn not claiming it on D3 is actually pro town. The remaining scum would be StD and FA.

I don't get this; who are you saying is mafia here besides Save the Dragons and Frozen Angel?

[Thestatusquo]

that seems like a really weird tone to take considering the lim seems to be way more likely to go on std than you right now. Basically no one has mentioned you at all.

[Drixx]

that seems like a really weird tone to take considering the lim seems to be way more likely to go on std than you right now. Basically no one has mentioned you at all.

PB Voted me and then unvoted me and FA said they were going to vote me?

[Thestatusquo]

I missed that I guess, my apologies.

[Pink Ball]

I don't get this; who are you saying is mafia here besides Save the Dragons and Frozen Angel?

{Drixx,Dunn} or {Drixx,GiF}. By play I'm inclined on the former, by associations on the latter, so inconclusive

[Thestatusquo]

oh yup he did. Literal last page. I am a goober.

[Pink Ball]

Drixx if Ircher is off the table, who would you vote

[Drixx]

I mean ... is nobody but me bothered by the fact that the "lovers" never ended up on anyone else, and that just when we would be likely to start poking in that direction, then all of a sudden there's a "clutch" vision result that "clears" kuribo (and with him, the two people whose posts have cleared him). It's a neat little closed loop, and it stinks.

[Ircher]

Ircher and Shea what did you have on D2?

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