Amnesiac Mafia: The Movie! That's a Wrap!

[kuribo]

Frozen Angel, GiF, Dunn, STD

same question: you get one bullet. Who out of the four other players do you start with? Knowing that all four (or three out of four) are confirmed scum to you?

[GuyInFreezer]

I’d shoot Dunn and never look back
Which is why I instavoted at the beginning of the day.

[GuyInFreezer]

It was about Dunn/FA >>>> one of Drixx/STD for me

[Drixx]

FMPOV, if we are putting Kuribo, Ircher, TSQ and PB out of the POE, then we have :

Drixx

,

Dunnstral, Frozen Angel, GuyInFreezer, Save The Dragons

If you think there's only 3 scum, one of the above in red isn't scum. If you think there's 4 scum, and you are okay with the assumption on the top line of this post, then there is the game solve.

Pretend I'm handing you a gun

Which of those four do you start with?

I think the order for me is: Dunnstral, GiF, FA and then StD.

If we're going to have the time for it, I will ISO dive all four and comment. I would expect this to take at least until Thursday night real time. I'll be working a lot of extra hours since my wife was laid off.

[Thestatusquo]

I think we should do the opposite of whatever the pool made up of 80% scum wants us to do personally.

[Thestatusquo]

Wait maybe we can next level them by me saying that and get them to suggest their buddies.

[GuyInFreezer]

Wait maybe we can next level them by me saying that and get them to suggest their buddies.

Pink Ball is my buddy

[kuribo]

I think we should do the opposite of whatever the pool made up of 80% scum wants us to do personally.

I'm trying to get them on the record today in the hopes that we hit scum today

[Frozen Angel]

first I need to say that putting PB out of poe mechanically is just wrong assumption cause pb claimed an action post other actions were claimed, nothing actually was said about him, himself. I mean shea is town if pb is town but the vice versa is not necessarily true mechanically. scum could just have tracker as a fake claim and he could have just made the FB checked shea up after it was claimed in thread.

but going back to the gun in my hand, few pages ago I would say drixx, cause of how low impact he became after getting titus elimed. I was not completely alerted with how he approached titus but I think him being less impactful in direction of game is a scum indicative thing of him. But then I actually like his way of approaching lovers claim actually. I think its fair of him to be suspicious of lovers cause its really low probability for no one else to ever have lover in this setup and drixx that I know "drives" with the math and probabilities when he is solving. so I'm actually a bit reserved on the slot now.

Regarding STD his claiming vig existance is particularly something that a scum him would have almost no reason of doing in my head. but then I kept thinking, why would a catalyst vig not try to use that role for confirming himself somehow. like I would expect him trying to hunt an action and why would he assume going on ircher will be likely end up killing a slot to begin with.

That leaves GIF and Dun and I think there is a scum between the two. If both are town we have a 3 scum setup likely.

I also think there is for sure a scum in the commuter claimers that is drixx/gif/dun

who i would shoot will have to wait till I deeper check when I have time thursday night or Friday morning. I don't have time to elaborate more my current reads and check things up but I wanna see how each of the people drove the game regarding each wagon.

[Frozen Angel]

if kuribo ircher shea are scum pb is for sure scum too. but pb being scum says nothing about the three as well

this is inverse negation of that same logic

[GuyInFreezer]

I think we should do the opposite of whatever the pool made up of 80% scum wants us to do personally.

I'm trying to get them on the record today in the hopes that we hit scum today

Fuck I shouldn't have joked about you as my buddy. I now ruined the perfect cover you had sorry PB

[GuyInFreezer]

^ wrong QT

[Dunnstral]

The mafia team is not kuribo/ircher/TSQ/PB because GiF started the day voting me and PB asked them to unvote to discuss things today

If that was the mafia team, they'd just pile onto me instead. Or be pushing me harder. Drixx seems to have no caught onto this.

Drixx we don't need a full iso dive that takes 48 hours to complete. Can you take 5 minutes to explain why I am the most likely mafia from your point of view in that group of players?

[kuribo]

The mafia team is not kuribo/ircher/TSQ/PB because GiF started the day voting me and PB asked them to unvote to discuss things today

If that was the mafia team, they'd just pile onto me instead. Or be pushing me harder. Drixx seems to have no caught onto this.

Drixx we don't need a full iso dive that takes 48 hours to complete. Can you take 5 minutes to explain why I am the most likely mafia from your point of view in that group of players?

Who would you shoot right this very second to break the game wide open?

[Save The Dragons]

How could they pile on if they're not on together

[Pink Ball]

That leaves GIF and Dun and I think there is a scum between the two. If both are town we have a 3 scum setup likely.

Drixx, STD and FA?

[Dunnstral]

The mafia team is not kuribo/ircher/TSQ/PB because GiF started the day voting me and PB asked them to unvote to discuss things today

If that was the mafia team, they'd just pile onto me instead. Or be pushing me harder. Drixx seems to have no caught onto this.

Drixx we don't need a full iso dive that takes 48 hours to complete. Can you take 5 minutes to explain why I am the most likely mafia from your point of view in that group of players?

Who would you shoot right this very second to break the game wide open?

My order is GuyInFreezer, Drixx, Frozen Angel, Save The Dragons

I think GiF is slipping info on the scum team size by acting like 3 mafia in a large game is likely. I think it is instead reasonable to assume that we are in limlo today and they didn't assume that - perhaps because the mafia team is actually only 3 people and they didn't perceive it as limlo because of that. I also feel they've went out of their way to avoid interacting with me this game.

I think Drixx is pushing weird angles today while not being on record with stances for a long time now. I think they are stalling with their thursday night stuff; They were able to sort it into an order so clearly they have reasoning; let's hear it now.

And then there's a gap where I can see the next two as town.

Frozen Angel has some nice analysis today IMO. I think it is true that at some point mafia had the commuter. Not sure who they would be aligned with and Klick had a point yesterday about how they didn't seem to fully understand what was happening mechanically while mafia would be more able to.

Save The Dragons has no reason to fake claim a Vigilante and I don't feel most of the shade thrown their way is fair. Klick seemed pretty confident they were town yesterday. Only thing that gives me pause here is that I have a hard time believing they were roleblocked over the caterer on night 2, but I also don't believe that TSQ is ascetic.


So I would shoot GuyInFreezer and go from there.

[Frozen Angel]

STD why didn't you plan anything with your special vig? the catalyst vig can potentially confirm you as town if it goes through in this setup

[Frozen Angel]

That leaves GIF and Dun and I think there is a scum between the two. If both are town we have a 3 scum setup likely.

Drixx, STD and FA?

drixx std and you

[Dunnstral]

How could they pile on if they're not on together

Right, but PB asked for them to unvote.....

And if they were all a team, I'd expect more shade thrown my way with GiF apparently so eager to vote for me today.

[Drixx]

The mafia team is not kuribo/ircher/TSQ/PB because GiF started the day voting me and PB asked them to unvote to discuss things today

If that was the mafia team, they'd just pile onto me instead. Or be pushing me harder. Drixx seems to have no caught onto this.

Drixx we don't need a full iso dive that takes 48 hours to complete. Can you take 5 minutes to explain why I am the most likely mafia from your point of view in that group of players?

The gamestate requires an ISO dive. My mental model of you this game is that you've shown up and made posts, but made almost no actual impact on the game. I can't say whether that's true until I go read your ISO and look at the places which need context. That takes time, and I can only manage so much of that when I'm working 10am to midnight.

[kuribo]

How could they pile on if they're not on together

Who would you vote first out of the other four in the PoE pile if the rest of us were sheeping you?

[Dunnstral]

FA do you have any non-mech thoughts on where mafia can be in the commuter claims?

[Dunnstral]

My mental model of you this game is that you've shown up and made posts, but made almost no actual impact on the game.

Great. Why does that make me the most likely to be mafia from your point of view?

[GuyInFreezer]

acting like 3 mafia in a large game is likely.

15p is barely a large game. General balance number is 3:1 ratio +1. That's why usually 9p has 2 scum, 13p has 3 scum, and 17 has 4 scum, etc.
15p is literally 13p with one more game day.