TM 2023 | Super Mario Bros Mafia | Game Over!
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I have received confirmation from Cakez that the Tanuki would NOT have allowed piercing my protection.
This makes me feel a lot better about HPE, and that puts us pretty close to auto-win.
VOTE: petapan
If peta's Town, flip Jingle tomorrow, and that should be the game.-
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petapan Survivor
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i dunno in what world you think you have the clout to make declarative statements like that lmaoIn post 1700, Radical Rat wrote: I have received confirmation from Cakez that the Tanuki would NOT have allowed piercing my protection.
This makes me feel a lot better about HPE, and that puts us pretty close to auto-win.
VOTE: petapan
If peta's Town, flip Jingle tomorrow, and that should be the game.free crypto-
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petapan Survivor
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i do not buy this for a second ftr (i missed it last night or woulda replied to it then)In post 1673, Radical Rat wrote:
It would have been completely unnecessary for scum!me to bus him yesterday. I could have very easily gone after Fate instead. He also spends the whole day sucking up to me instead of distancing from me.In post 1665, petapan wrote:
i hadn't stated a conclusion on you yet actuallyIn post 1659, Radical Rat wrote:
And you think my handling of Cerb is?In post 1658, petapan wrote: yeah i'm not gonna quote it because i don't want to edit the great wall of china but cerb's handling of HPE is just not scum/scum
but...yeah, plausibly? i just did a quick check on a reread, tell me what you believe makes you unaligned with cerb?
cerb was a dead man walking who had already been brought to E-1 Day 1, and at a minimum we accept that several town players were pushing him. He was giving an effort (enough to fool a scrub like me), but his heart clearly wasn't in it
in that spot, we have a claimed town UB with a track that's going off that night which is effectively a cop check
any scum player that isn't completely green or dogmatically anti-bussing knows you throw your teammate under the bus there because otherwise you risk getting copped and losing the game. attempting to start a 1v1 with fate there has significant downside because i think more people would have sided with fate than you and cerb had very little hope of going the distance.
so, yeah, i think scum absolutely busses in that spot, this is easy to say fmpov but also it's just how games tend to workfree crypto-
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petapan Survivor
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if you had claimed doctor with a bodyguard already claimed in the setup, i would have started screaming to instakill you because those roles do not exist together in a 10p. as it is rolestopper has a little more anti-synergy and you could have easily not anticipated fate having a PRIn post 1691, Radical Rat wrote: Why do I hard bus Cerb instead of going after Fate? Why do I claim rolestopper at all instead of an impossible to verify (at the time) Doctor?
i'm, like, eh, because i make these sort of "why would i do this as scum" arguments all the time as town but nothing about your play is illogical or anti-wincon as scum
it's not impossible you are town making these arguments they just don't do a lot for mefree crypto-
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petapan Survivor
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i checked over jingle last night and while his progression on cerb is very easily one i could see coming from a partner (start off townreading him for questionable reasons, gradually shift to a scumread as his posting fell off and pressure mounted, unvote after the claim, bury him hard day 2), i'm really loathe to let go of my prior read that when i was yelling at him like an idiot he was just town with sincere convictions. every time i get in a shitfight like that with someone they end up being town.
i think recent experience has shown to me town players can have questionable associations with scum and you shouldn't use those as the primary basis of a read and overall social reads matter more
there's the paranoia in the back of my head that he's going after RR because i'm, like, way easier to beat in a 1v1 at f4 given my less than stellar play this game but rationally i'm more inclined to trust him, to the point of being more uncertain ofadorablelast night (I don't think she's...all that likely but mostly because the claim is believable)free crypto-
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petapan Survivor
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Spoiler:
for reference, this is the only discussion RR had of Cerb Day 1, which i certainly wouldn't consider un-aligning in any world
i'm not gonna say it's inherently damning because you can get stuff like this happening incidentally but the lack of discussion around cerb is circumspect? it doesn't feel like there's attention being drawn there or attempts to solve him, just a very sudden E-1 votefree crypto-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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If I assume you're a two shot rolestopper I also have to consider that the setup is townsided, I think.In post 1698, Radical Rat wrote: @Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?
Adorable's claim is not one that comes from scum. She WILL die before the end of the game, and knowing that her partner was the defacto lim for D2 (It was obvious to everyone, or at least should have been, that I was going to get cerb blood as soon as he claimed that nonsense) she would not have claimed a role with a literal time bomb strapped to its chest.
Fate's role wasn't actually strong. He was a an investigative, nominally, but not one that got hard results prior to cerb's death, because Kamek is pretty clearly non paranormal. Even then, there's a potential for a false clear because of the ambiguity of the results themselves if there's a ghost on the scumteam that can visit without killing (Rolecop?).
Even night tracker is very weak. We could expect one, maybe two results before XLO. With just those two roles, a UB makes sense. If we add a ninja to the scumteam, those roles don't make any sense again.
The real issue here is the sheer amount of protective power we have. If the event as a whole didn't appear to be massively townsided (obviously I can't go into specifics while following the rules) then I wouldn't even entertain the idea that a VT was scum here, but depressingly I can see it being the case.
Everything in me is screaming lim RR today and we win, but here's the shimmy: I think we can make this auto. Wgeurts is conftown. Adorable is just about. I don't see a world where HPE is scum. That leaves, theoretically, me RR peta. If we lim peta today and RR protects HPE while wgeurts protects Adorable, who holsters. We can no lim into 3p with adorable protecting HPE tomorrow. That gets us to a worst case scenario of a 1v1 between two players in XLO, one of which will be HPE.
This falls apart with a strongman, but a strongman that isn't heavily gated just invalidates almost all of the setup and doesn't seem reasonable. Thoughts?This is a Parachute.-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I'm not dogmatically anti-bussing, but I am very much against unnecessary bussing, and I do not believe it was necessary to bus Cerb there. ESPECIALLY not with multiple investigatives and a Bodyguard in play, where I would much rather take the fall myself than let the roleblocker die.
I think you're heavily overestimating just how much Cerb's fate was sealed, and I find it interesting how that's the same line of defense Cerb had for not using the BP shot.-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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FWIW, the above plan works if we choose to lim me over peta as well, it's just an XLO of RR, Peta and HPE with one of RR/Peta conftown instead of me being the conftown.This is a Parachute.-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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This was in response to petaIn post 1707, Radical Rat wrote: I'm not dogmatically anti-bussing, but I am very much against unnecessary bussing, and I do not believe it was necessary to bus Cerb there. ESPECIALLY not with multiple investigatives and a Bodyguard in play, where I would much rather take the fall myself than let the roleblocker die.
I think you're heavily overestimating just how much Cerb's fate was sealed, and I find it interesting how that's the same line of defense Cerb had for not using the BP shot.-
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HighPrincessErinys it/its, not theyMafia Scumit/its, not they
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This one can get down with this plan considering it's been suspicious of peta nearly ALL the damn game. Feel like you're also not entirely out of the water imho but my super-ultra Tracker immortality plan doesn't work without trusting you for a night or two, so this one declares a truce.In post 1700, Radical Rat wrote: If peta's Town, flip Jingle tomorrow, and that should be the game.
VOTE: petapan
p-edit: Jingle's idea doesn't sound half bad either.-
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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Cerbs was dead the minute he claimed BP, JSYK. It was a scumclaim, pure and simple, and the only reason the day extended was because I wanted to see what spew would happen.In post 1707, Radical Rat wrote: I do not believe it was necessary to bus Cerb there.This is a Parachute.-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I agree with this. It seems to me like Cerb was the intended way for scum to bypass protection, and I cannot imagine there just also being a strongman, especially with the potential for a double kill from hitting Adorable's target.In post 1706, Jingle wrote:
If I assume you're a two shot rolestopper I also have to consider that the setup is townsided, I think.In post 1698, Radical Rat wrote: @Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?
Adorable's claim is not one that comes from scum. She WILL die before the end of the game, and knowing that her partner was the defacto lim for D2 (It was obvious to everyone, or at least should have been, that I was going to get cerb blood as soon as he claimed that nonsense) she would not have claimed a role with a literal time bomb strapped to its chest.
Fate's role wasn't actually strong. He was a an investigative, nominally, but not one that got hard results prior to cerb's death, because Kamek is pretty clearly non paranormal. Even then, there's a potential for a false clear because of the ambiguity of the results themselves if there's a ghost on the scumteam that can visit without killing (Rolecop?).
Even night tracker is very weak. We could expect one, maybe two results before XLO. With just those two roles, a UB makes sense. If we add a ninja to the scumteam, those roles don't make any sense again.
The real issue here is the sheer amount of protective power we have. If the event as a whole didn't appear to be massively townsided (obviously I can't go into specifics while following the rules) then I wouldn't even entertain the idea that a VT was scum here, but depressingly I can see it being the case.
Everything in me is screaming lim RR today and we win, but here's the shimmy: I think we can make this auto. Wgeurts is conftown. Adorable is just about. I don't see a world where HPE is scum. That leaves, theoretically, me RR peta. If we lim peta today and RR protects HPE while wgeurts protects Adorable, who holsters. We can no lim into 3p with adorable protecting HPE tomorrow. That gets us to a worst case scenario of a 1v1 between two players in XLO, one of which will be HPE.
This falls apart with a strongman, but a strongman that isn't heavily gated just invalidates almost all of the setup and doesn't seem reasonable. Thoughts?-
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Adorable SheGoonShe
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The mushroom would protect me.In post 1699, Radical Rat wrote: @Adorable
I know we did this with the Tanuki already, but would you mind asking Cakez if the mushroom can protect you from dying if your target is attacked?-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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Now THAT'S spicy-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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Adorable doesn't need to holster in that case, which means wgeurts can be kept alive.-
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Adorable SheGoonShe
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I have paranoia on all of the players here except for wgeurts and these reads looks reasonable. Last day you should have claimed 2 shot rolestopper instead of claiming it on day 3 because now there has been doubts on the claim.In post 1697, Radical Rat wrote: Thoughts Time:
My first guess for scum here is peta. He was on Porkens, but off Cerb, I've been scumreading him off and on throughout the game, and judging by end of day, Fate would have agreed.
Jingle is a source of mild paranoia for me. In general, I'd trust him more than myself on mechanical matters, but when he's saying my role shouldn't exist, and I have my role... at the very least, he's wrong. I also think that if there was scum bussing peta, Jingle is the most likely to be that scum.
Adorable is probably just Town. We know she's Loved, and she was the swing vote for Cerb, probably could have turned it onto me instead if she'd wanted to.
HPE scares me a lot, because while I'm leaning Town presently, if it is scum we're kinda fucked. Was also on Porkens but off Cerb, was frankly bizarrely trusting of his claim, the kill makes the most sense in this world, and I'm not 100% convinced Daisy makes sense as a UB... but also willingly generating conftown is something scum usually avoids, and there were a couple angles that could have been taken to mislim me instead... but also doing things this way is safer and no one's going to want to lim it in MeLo... but I don't know if I'm willing to give up a potential cop shot going into ELo.
Wgeurts is IC now, because even if HPE is lying, they can't both be scum, but I was strongly townreading them anyway.
Conclusions: I don't fuckin' have any-
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HighPrincessErinys it/its, not theyMafia Scumit/its, not they
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This one has had it's doubts about the claim regardless, to be frank.In post 1716, Adorable wrote: Last day you should have claimed 2 shot rolestopper instead of claiming it on day 3 because now there has been doubts on the claim.-
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petapan Survivor
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okay, so i asked a question about how today's powerup would interact with a town bodyguard, and if a BG is protected by it, and someone tries to kill the BG's target, the BG would be prevented from dying. that lets us doc 2 slots instead of just 1
feel free to confirm this yourself
even night tracker in a 10 player game is a bit of a mean trick, it seems like it'd be useful twice, except
if we go to 4p the mafia just have no incentive to kill even if we vote no elim, we're not getting useful results from a tracker ever again
yell at me for saying this if you want but there's 0 chance a team of 4 people wouldn't be able to figure that out
so the only thing that can be done night action wise is to gamble on a possible save giving us an extra MLfree crypto-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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So you were brainstorming with your team on how to escape autoloss, eh?-
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petapan Survivor
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no?In post 1719, Radical Rat wrote: So you were brainstorming with your team on how to escape autoloss, eh?
what the fuck purpose does a post like this serve, why are you talking shit at me? what does this accomplish?
if you're absolutely convinced that action is somehow scum motivated, lay out a case as to why to sell it to other people, don't snipe
if you're actually trying to figure out my alignment then ask me questions
i do not care at all if i am voted out today and accepted that as a likely reality the moment i was not cleared by the trackerfree crypto-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I just found the way you framed your point amusing is all.
You are right, holstering would be the correct move for scum to make in that situation, but there's also no inherent risk for Town in that case since it'll just be the same day again, so like. Even if the chance they don't figure it out in time is small, why point it out?
It's not like it's mutually exclusive with using the protective roles-
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petapan Survivor
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i had this thought as well ftr but i think scum radical rat probably just kills the protection target and goes "oh i guess mafia do have a strongman" etc so i wouldn't count on it at allIn post 1706, Jingle wrote:
If I assume you're a two shot rolestopper I also have to consider that the setup is townsided, I think.In post 1698, Radical Rat wrote: @Jingle
If you assume I am in fact a two-shot rolestopper, where do you think the setup breaks down elsewhere?
Adorable's claim is not one that comes from scum. She WILL die before the end of the game, and knowing that her partner was the defacto lim for D2 (It was obvious to everyone, or at least should have been, that I was going to get cerb blood as soon as he claimed that nonsense) she would not have claimed a role with a literal time bomb strapped to its chest.
Fate's role wasn't actually strong. He was a an investigative, nominally, but not one that got hard results prior to cerb's death, because Kamek is pretty clearly non paranormal. Even then, there's a potential for a false clear because of the ambiguity of the results themselves if there's a ghost on the scumteam that can visit without killing (Rolecop?).
Even night tracker is very weak. We could expect one, maybe two results before XLO. With just those two roles, a UB makes sense. If we add a ninja to the scumteam, those roles don't make any sense again.
The real issue here is the sheer amount of protective power we have. If the event as a whole didn't appear to be massively townsided (obviously I can't go into specifics while following the rules) then I wouldn't even entertain the idea that a VT was scum here, but depressingly I can see it being the case.
Everything in me is screaming lim RR today and we win, but here's the shimmy: I think we can make this auto. Wgeurts is conftown. Adorable is just about. I don't see a world where HPE is scum. That leaves, theoretically, me RR peta. If we lim peta today and RR protects HPE while wgeurts protects Adorable, who holsters. We can no lim into 3p with adorable protecting HPE tomorrow. That gets us to a worst case scenario of a 1v1 between two players in XLO, one of which will be HPE.
This falls apart with a strongman, but a strongman that isn't heavily gated just invalidates almost all of the setup and doesn't seem reasonable. Thoughts?free crypto-
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petapan Survivor
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i have too much respect for every player in the game/their teammates to even begin to pretend that wasn't an idea scum would have thought ofIn post 1721, Radical Rat wrote: I just found the way you framed your point amusing is all.
You are right, holstering would be the correct move for scum to make in that situation, but there's also no inherent risk for Town in that case since it'll just be the same day again, so like. Even if the chance they don't figure it out in time is small, why point it out?
It's not like it's mutually exclusive with using the protective roles
like, what are you even saying here, i am scum who is dying today but also i will dump my plan to avoid autoloss to the whole thread? makes no sensefree crypto-
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Radical Rat They/ThemJack of All TradesThey/Them
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I mean, you do still have to pretend to care. And seeing as you've already started taking the angle of "all these plans are stupid and won't work, so kill Rat instead of me..."
Yes, I think you're scum trying to derail Town coordination.
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