TM 2023 | Super Mario Bros Mafia | Game Over!

[Jingle]

will have a look at Jingle and HPE later.

If you don't mind, I can save you a lot of time. I have one completed scum game that is recent. I have one completed towngame that is recent. I was much higher effort in both of those than in this one. I am firmly within the realm of what I can pull off as scum if I wanted to, because there is literally only one way I can be outside of that and it is to make it literally impossible for myself to win as scum. That's my trust tell. I don't make the game impossible to win for scum as scum.

I was very much antibus in Election, but was basically forced into it D1 and should have been forced into it when Ali scumclaimed by inaction but somehow we managed to make Ali's scumclaim seem reasonable. I could maybe have done the same with cerbs, but I probably wouldn't have given LLD at least would have been able to figure out what I was doing. I do think that my play as a whole has been very protown this game, but I have had some very strong scumgames in the past, so there will probably always be some level of paranoia about me.

In Coalition the entire playerlist was lurkery and I did a similar buddy analysis thing but actually followed through then got killed N1. We lost.

[Jingle]

because there is literally only one way I can be outside of that and it is to make it literally impossible for myself to win as scum.

To put this into perspective, about nine years ago I was working a minimum wage job and made an alignment bet that I was town on a brand new graphics card with a friend in an IRL game of Secret Hitler. He bet I was a fascist. I told him that if I flipped fascist I would give him the $800 piece of hardware. I won the game, and then immediately gave him an $800 piece of equipment. I don't have a scumrange.

[HighPrincessErinys]

will have a look at Jingle and HPE later.

If you don't mind, I can save you a lot of time. I have...

And this one has... no scum games to date, actually.

[HighPrincessErinys]

RR/Peta/Jingle(??????) all feel possible here and this one isn't super sure how it's gonna proceed if we flip one as town today.

[Radical Rat]

RR/Peta/Jingle(??????) all feel possible here and this one isn't super sure how it's gonna proceed if we flip one as town today.

Well, I need to live today for the possible protection, but you don't actually need to trust me for it.

You, wgeurts, and Adorable should all three be guaranteed to live, barring a strongman or something which I believe we're all on the same page about not existing.

If that chain breaks, and one of you dies, it comes down to how much you trust the person protecting that slot. Make one final call on whether you believe a strongman exists, and either kill me or Adorable based on whose target died, or kill peta or Jingle based on who we don't eliminate today.

If that chain DOESN'T break, the only two possible kill options are me and whichever of peta/Jingle we don't eliminate today. You kill the survivor. If scum holsters, we have an extra day and can lim both of us. In theory, either you or Adorable could still be the killer, but Adorable is at least half confirmed, and I think you approach today differently as scum, so I'm willing to take that chance.

[petapan]

Are we agreed that "I failed my protection due to strongman" gets instantly elimmed?

yeah sure, i turned it over in my head and strongman with a full rb is kind of absurd b/c it'd be invalidating, like, every single power source in the setup


i don't want to rush the day tho

[Adorable]

anyway i am entirely in favor of killing me today, wgeurts protects adorable, adorable protects HPE, RR protects wgeurts. (you can shuffle the latter two if you have a different comfort level just firm it up before ending the day)

I'm cool with this. I'm honestly fine with HPE/Adorable/wgeurts winning atp if any of them are scum. Are we agreed that "I failed my protection due to strongman" gets instantly elimmed?

If so, I say we wait for PRs to confirm they are down to clown and then just end the day.

You have been saying RR is scummy and now you say you are cool with a peta elim and what made you change your mind on being okay with a peta elim?

I'd rather not end the day early.

[Adorable]

Eliminating in a player who failed their protection because of a strongman looks manipulative.

[Radical Rat]

As I lie in bed trying to sleep last night, I had a feeling. The peculiar sense that we were missing something obvious. That something wasn't right.

And as I pondered, I saw it. It was Fate. Based on the description of the role, it's basically a motion detector, but specifically for ghosts. It's been a pretty safe assumption that the remaining scum is Boo flavored in some way, but... why would we need a motion detector? If they're either a goon or a strongman, it doesn't take a fancy role to figure out "scum visited here!" when a body shows up. So they must have some kind of non-lethal ability... but what? Cerberus provided both a roleblock, and a rolecop. Limited shots, sure, but even so... odd powers to expect doubling. A ninja, perhaps? A fitting power for ghosts, in which case Fate would serve as a warning to us... A warning to the Tracker not to trust its eyes. But does a Tracker with but two active nights truly necessitate such a counter? No... I cannot think so. But what if instead the Tracker was our lifeline? Luigi could tell us there was something unseen, but perhaps only the harsh light of a Tracker's gaze can truly pierce the veil of illusion... A beguiling phantasm, turning us against one another...

It was then as I languished in these thoughts that I heard laughter. A chortle, echoing through the night, and with it a maddening ringing filled my ears. The ringing of bells. Sleigh bells.

Jingle

bells.

VOTE: Jingle

[HighPrincessErinys]

Can this one get a roleplay to scumcase translation?

[Radical Rat]

In more plain English:

The last scum has to do SOMETHING and the something has to be non-lethal, or else Fate's role makes no sense. But the power balance doesn't seem to work out, with Cerb being both a roleblocker and a rolecop. Fate could theoretically catch Ninja visits, but that seems like a stretch to have such a heavily restricted Tracker also be completely useless.

But redirection could work. Using Cerb to identify roles, and then deflecting them somewhere else in the coming nights. Fate tells us something fucky happened, Tracker catches people visiting the wrong targets, and while scum could negate one investigate or one protective, they can't negate both of either. And if I target correctly, that's another off the table. It sounds broken at first, but does have a natural interplay with all of the claims so far.

It does however mean that today's elimination matters. I'm not saying we shouldn't follow the plan and try to protect as many as possible, because we absolutely should still do that in case either I'm just wrong, or it's restricted in some way.

But today's elimination DOES matter. We should make every effort to get it right. And having considered things further... my heart says Jingle.

[Radical Rat]

As for why it says Jingle, there's been a couple things rubbing me the wrong way

petapan reacting so emotionally every time I've prodded him: accusing me of weaponizing his illness, calling me a fucking idiot who's never played a theme before, and then getting genuinely offended by me making a presumptuous comment about him being scum. It feels like genuine indignation. It could theoretically be AtE that I am now falling for, but it's a disproportionate reaction if the things I'd been accusing him of are actually true. And his recent posts showing a willingness to go along with everything, including his death... I should have let him talk more before calling out the angle I thought he was going for earlier, but even so, it looks and feels real, in a way that I wasn't picking up on before.

[Radical Rat]

Jingle on the other hand, has been a sinking pit in my stomach for a while now. I pushed those doubts aside for a while because there was always something bigger until now.

But the mechanical takes, well... by his own admission, they haven't been as good as they're supposed to be. And then ever since my claim he's been shading me but never really acting on it. And there was something else I noticed...

[Jingle]

And then ever since my claim he's been shading me but never really acting on it.

The day when I was only ever going to vote scum or the day when I'm of the opinion that there are three locktown who aren't me and we can force through three lims?

Like... legitimately fine with being the lim today, but explicitly it's RR tomorrow and peta after that. No deviations no reevaluations. Just go for it. If the locktown agree I'll self vote right now to mitigate the paranoia.

[Jingle]

But today's elimination DOES matter.

It literally does not. But okay.

[Radical Rat]

This is a scumclaim. You were JUST talking about how you thought Porkens claim was incredibly suspicious, but Mafia wouldn't have had any way to know Toad VTs were a thing, and you existing confirms they exist, which SHOULD have cleared Porkens for you.

I was trying to slowroll that, but yes, the sequence is super sus.

Oh, wrt the porkens claim, I actually saw the claim before I noticed the thread was locked and my initial reaction was "That's odd, I'd assumed the VT's were individually flavored." I would have strongly considered flavor cc'ing, but don't think the assumption that peta wouldn't have taken it as a scumclaim with that assumption is truly unreasonable. It is slightly eyebrow raising, but I think we're in a world where the setup is fairly clearing for the VTs so I'm not particularly worried about it for today. I also think wgeurtz/cerb is not S/S, (and have since early D1) and so if I need to reevaluate on a VT it's probably peta, but I don't really think peta is scum anymore.

This seems rather contradictory to me. I noticed it at the time, but was too focused on Cerb to pursue it.

[Radical Rat]

But today's elimination DOES matter.

It literally does not. But okay.

So you believe that Fate's role is legitimately useless then?

[Jingle]

But the mechanical takes, well... by his own admission, they haven't been as good as they're supposed to be.

Also... Bullshit. The event as a whole has been more townsided than it should have been, for various reasons individual to the games but that I will be happy to discuss when I can actually discuss all of the things in all of the games.

The mech stuff for this game, specifically? I have been 100% on the ball. I expected there to be a vig or another way to take the game off of evens, because evens are generally unfun game design, but I never guaranteed that such would be the case. Accusing me of not having perfect setup information is asinine. Accusing me of having unreasonable setup speculation given the available data is ridiculous.

[Jingle]

So you believe that Fate's role is legitimately useless then?

No? I believe fate's role was designed to give unreliable guilties on a specific scum player OR to act as a confirmable role to demonstrate roleblocking failures. It is entirely possible you or peta is a ghost flavored scum, but any ability that prevents the clear chain tonight from preventing a kill outside of the PoE ALSO invalidates too much of the setup for town to have enough power.

Adorable doesn't make sense as any reasonable ghost character. HPE is town on play. Wgeurts is a tracker inno on already 95% town based on crossbuddying between wgeurts and cerbs D1.

[Jingle]

To elaborate:

Adorable is proven loved. There are roughly 3 Loogi's mansion characters that could be loved characters, and none of them are significant even in the context of that game (one of the individual boos is love themed, there's a spinster ghost in the basement that's pining for love, and there are the dancing couple who can only be hoover'd while distracted; None are even area bosses). There are three 'ghosts' that could be loved in the paper mario series, all of which are both good guys (mario partners) and side characters in a non canon section of the franchise. That's it. Also, bodyguard is a suicide fakeclaim to make when Adorable wouldn't have had enough setup info to know it'd be possible and Cakez slightly modspewed it as real based on answering questions about the role to not Adorable.

[Radical Rat]

Okay but I'm not doubting Adorable here. I'm doubting YOU.

[Jingle]

The proposed plan is to lim me today. Doubting the plan because you don't trust me is asinine.

This is all just convincing me you're scum and lim me lim you lim peta wins the game 100% of the time.

[Radical Rat]

I am doubting that this is truly an auto-win, yes. But all that means is that I think today's vote matters, not that we shouldn't try to protect everyone anyway. I sincerely hope that I'm wrong about my redirector epiphany, and I will still vote for peta if no one else is willing to vote you.

But right now, I'm calling your bluff.

[Jingle]

Not a bluff, MULTITASKING redirector worse for setup balance than SMan, yadda yadda yadda. But okay, you can continue tilting at windmills.

[Radical Rat]

Fortunately, you don't have to believe me. No one does. If I'm wrong, it's auto-win regardless. Today doesn't matter, we speedrun the next couple days, and the sun rises on a brighter Mushroom Kingdom.

But if I'm right, it is imperative that we don't make the wrong call here. If I'm still breathing tomorrow there's nothing I can say that will sway anyone, and I know that. I'll try anyway, but it'll all just be for show. The game will have been decided here and now.